Fdd's overnight brief

December 27, 2024

In The News

Israel

A lead organization monitoring for food crises around the world withdrew a new report this week warning of imminent famine in north Gaza under what it called Israel’s “near-total blockade,” after the U.S. asked for its retraction, U.S. officials told The Associated Press. The move follows public criticism of the report from the U.S. ambassador to Israel. – Associated Press

Israel’s attorney general has ordered police to open an investigation into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife on suspicion of harassing political opponents and a witness in the Israeli leader’s corruption trial. – Associated Press

Israel’s ultranationalist security minister ascended to the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem on Thursday for what he said was a “prayer” for hostages in Gaza, freshly challenging rules over one of the most sensitive sites in the Middle East. – Reuters

The quiet resumption of operations at a desalination plant in the Gaza Strip last month marked a small but significant step toward restoring public services in the Palestinian territory ravaged by more than 14 months of war. – Agence France-Presse

Israel is facing further entanglements in international courts, with the president of the International Court of Justice agreeing to take up a request to issue an advisory opinion on Israeli legislation banning the operations of the highly contentious UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA. – Times of Israel

Two Israel Defense Forces soldiers serving in the Gaza Strip were killed in fighting on Thursday, the army said, as Israeli officials pushed back on claims that five Palestinians who died in an overnight airstrike were journalists. – Times of Israel

American and Israeli officials said Thursday that the chances of reaching a hostage-ceasefire deal with the Hamas terror group before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20 are low, the Walla news site reported. – Times of Israel

Surprised by Oct. 7 and fearful of another attack, Israel weakened safeguards meant to protect noncombatants, allowing officers to endanger up to 20 people in each airstrike. One of the deadliest bombardments of the 21st century followed. – New York Times

Air-raid sirens blared across central Israel, including the Gush Dan area, the Shephelah region and parts of the West Bank, following a missile launch from Yemen, the IDF reported Friday morning, less than a day after Israel launched its largest air raid against Houthi targets in Yemen to date. – Ynet

Editorial: Bringing the hostages home should not be a playing card in this war. Even if Hamas is destroyed beyond repair and the Iranian axis is dismembered, the war cannot ever be considered “won” if all the hostages are not returned. The faith and trust that Israelis have in their country, in what it could be and in the fight for its future, will not be restored if the hostages aren’t returned. This Hanukkah is the second that some hostages are experiencing in captivity, and as the families grow weary and tired, and time does its thing and creates distance, we must remember daily and not forget: We owe it to our brothers and sisters to bring them home, now. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is set to visit Moscow on Jan. 17 and sign a cooperation agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian state news agency RIA cited Iran’s ambassador to Russia as saying on Thursday. – Reuters

The Arab League regional bloc called on Iran on Thursday not to fuel “strife” in Syria, after the ouster of Tehran ally president Bashar al-Assad ended decades of rule by his clan. – Agence France-Presse

Following a dramatic few months, 2025 is not looking up for Iran. Donald Trump’s return to the White House and women’s resistance at home are both of concern to the clerical theocratic regime. – DW

Iran carried out 883 executions in 2024, marking a significant annual increase and representing the highest number in a decade, US-based rights group HRANA said on Thursday. – Iran International

Editorial: The collapse of Iran’s proxy army strategy owes much to America’s 2020 strike that killed its architect, Qassem Soleimani. No successor has his charisma or organizational skills. Iran has tried to kill Candidate Trump, while he says “anything is possible” to prevent a nuclear Iran. So the military option seems soon to be back on the table. We tend to discount the idea, often heard on the left, that President Trump is trigger happy. During Trump’s first term, he called off planned airstrikes on Iran in a move that showed remarkable restraint. It reflected a Trump who is “more cautious than critics have assumed,” as the Times put it. Five years later, could the threat of attack prove an effective tactic — or have recent events changed Trump’s calculus? – New York Sun

Russia & Ukraine

The preliminary results of Azerbaijan’s investigation into the deadly crash of a civilian airliner point to the plane being hit by a Russian antiaircraft missile, or shrapnel from it, said people briefed on the probe. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s point man for arms control cautioned Donald Trump’s incoming administration on Friday against resuming nuclear testing, saying Moscow would keep its own options open amid what he said was Washington’s “extremely hostile” stance. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday there was no time left this year to sign a new Ukrainian gas transit deal, and laid the blame firmly on Ukraine for refusing to extend the agreement that brings gas to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria. – Reuters

Russia declared a federal emergency on Thursday over an oil spill caused by two Russian tankers in the Black Sea, the Emergencies Ministry said. – Reuters

Russia is willing to work with Donald Trump’s incoming administration to improve relations if the U.S. has serious intentions to do so but it is up to Washington to make the first move, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday. – Reuters

Alexander J. Motyl writes: What’s missing here? Any mention of NATO and its supposed plans to include Ukraine. Instead, Putin puts the blame squarely on the Ukrainians and what they did or failed to do. Agree or disagree with his assessment, but recognize that Putin has effectively destroyed whatever plausibility the “NATO-threat” thesis may still have among poorly informed policymakers and analysts.Unfortunately, none of these conclusions should surprise or shock us. Putin is being true to himself; indeed, he’s proud of being a genocidaire and warmonger. He thrives on death and destruction — and believes Russians do too.Negotiating with Putin won’t be about ending war and introducing peace. It’ll be about the timing and extent of genocide and war. – The Hill

Alexander Baunov writes: At the same time, Putin’s decision to prioritize Ukraine should not be taken for a complete abandonment of Russian ambitions outside its immediate neighborhood. Rather, the loss of Syria has simply raised the stakes of the war in Ukraine. In Putin’s schema, Ukraine has become a tipping point in a global struggle between the Western elite and a new, Russian-led order: once Ukraine falls, Russia hopes to take Georgia and whatever other territory it desires, and to once again sell itself as a strong patron to countries around the world. In the meantime, however, Moscow’s promises will ring hollow. – Foreign Affairs

Ramzy Mardini writes: Today, Washington is urging Kyiv to address its critical shortages in manpower and lower the conscription age to eighteen as Russian military advances accelerate on the ground. Equally important, Moscow’s capacity for conventional escalation is matched by its willingness to act. Despite talk in Western capitals about Moscow’s reluctance to enforce its threats, Russia has instead managed its escalation with calibration, minimizing overexposure and mitigating risks of overreach and overheating. Against evolving and emerging threats, Russia has expanded its political aims, intensified its firepower, and further mobilized troops to correspond with changes in goals and strategy. But its will to fight stems from the balance of resolve in Ukraine, where Russia’s stakes outweigh those of NATO. Again, it’s not a coincidence that Western commitment to Ukraine remains distant, limited to support from afar rather than direct defense. – The National Interest

Syria

As the Assad regime collapsed this month, Israel’s military swiftly seized control over the border area with Syria—moving to disarm nearby villages to create a security buffer. – Wall Street Journal

Syria’s new rulers are facing challenges to their authority, including clashes with allies of the old regime and protests accusing them of destroying religious symbols. – Wall Street Journal

For more than four decades, the Assad family made sure that the horrors it committed here stayed unspeakable — killing tens of thousands of Hama residents over a savage month-long siege, then hunting those who carried the memory. – Washington Post

Syria’s new authorities on Thursday launched a security crackdown in a coastal region where 14 policemen were killed a day before, vowing to pursue “remnants” of the ousted Bashar al-Assad government accused of the attack, state media reported. – Reuters

In a meeting with NPR’s Hadeel Al-Salachi, Marwan said it was “natural” that Israel had concerns about the new Syrian government and that as a result of this “fear,” Israel “advanced a little, bombed a little.” – Jerusalem Post

Zina Rakhamilova writes: Jewish communities worldwide have become all too accustomed to the double standards and antisemitism driving many “social justice movements.” But the selective moral outrage and indifference to the atrocities in Syria reveal a new level of hypocrisy. The disproportionate focus on criticizing Israel, while ignoring Assad’s crimes – even when his regime murdered Palestinians – lays bare the antisemitism at the core of these movements. The crimes of the Assad regime demand accountability. Sednaya Prison and the broader network of atrocities have exposed a brutal chapter in Syria’s history, one that the international community has largely chosen to ignore. – Jerusalem Post

Gregory Lyakhov writes: The collapse of Assad’s regime marks the end of an era but does not guarantee stability or security for Israel. Instead, it brings in a period of heightened uncertainty, where new threats emerge. While Israel may not face immediate danger from the new Syrian regime, there is a serious potential for future conflict. Israel’s challenge is to adapt swiftly to this new reality, reorganizing its military and diplomatic strategies to address both immediate risks and long-term threats. As the region reshapes itself, support for Israel will be crucial in ensuring its security and maintaining this pillar of democracy in an increasingly radicalized Middle East. – Algemeiner

Turkey

Turkey aims to provide electricity to Syria and strengthen its power infrastructure, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar was quoted on Friday as saying, adding that Ankara may also work with Syria’s new leadership on oil and natural gas. – Reuters

Greece and Cyprus will be watching Turkish moves in the Mediterranean next year, based on Turkey’s announcement this week that it wants to strike a maritime demarcation agreement with Syria once a permanent government is formed at Damascus. – New York Sun

Michael Rubin writes: As Erdoğan seeks to raise questions of sovereignty in Jerusalem, he sets a precedent that every freedom-seeking country should seize to question Turkey’s stewardship of Istanbul and to study openly the city’s status and Turkey’s sovereignty. – Middle East Forum

Lebanon

Lebanon said on Thursday it was looking forward to having the best neighbourly relations with Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad opened the way to a new era in the often turbulent relations between the two neighbours. – Reuters

The United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) called on Thursday for a timely Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon, citing what it called Israeli violations of a Nov. 27 ceasefire agreement with Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. – Reuters

The Israeli air force reportedly struck the Bekaa Valley region of Lebanon, Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese media outlet Al Akhbar reported on Friday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Yemen

Israel escalated its strikes against the Houthis in Yemen on Thursday, launching an array of attacks on the capital and elsewhere in the country that officials said was intended to deter the last Iran-backed group to pose a direct threat. – Wall Street Journal

The U.N. air crew member hurt in an air strike on Yemen’s main international airport on Thursday suffered serious injuries but is now recovering in hospital, a spokesperson for the World Health Organization said on Friday. – Reuters

A new round of Israeli airstrikes in Yemen on Thursday targeted the Houthi rebel-held capital and multiple ports, while the World Health Organization’s director-general said the bombardment occurred nearby as he prepared to board a flight in Sanaa, with a crew member injured. – Associated Press

Israeli officials confirmed the country’s largest airstrike in Yemen since the war began, targeting Houthi-controlled sites in Sanaa and other key locations. The operation involved 25 aircraft, including fighter jets, reconnaissance planes and tankers, and hit infrastructure critical to Houthi operations. – Ynet

Ron Ben-Yishai writes: While Thursday’s damage to Sanaa Airport can be repaired, future strikes could lead to a complete halt of civilian aviation in Yemen. Meanwhile, Israeli officials indicate they are gathering intelligence for potentially more intense responses if Houthi missile and drone attacks continue. – Ynet

Smadar Perry writes: The Houthis, as their statements imply, are preparing, recruiting and stay undeterred. Elizabeth Kendall, a leading American expert on Yemen, summed up the situation succinctly: “The biggest dilemma is that it looks impossible to influence the Houthis without military pressure, but it’s hard to see how military pressure can work.” – Ynet

Yossi Yehoshua writes: While the objective Katz refers to is a consensus in the West (the U.S. and UK would gladly see the threat eliminated), a minor issue remains: operational capabilities. It took considerable time to locate Hamas’s leadership in Gaza, just two hours from the minister’s office in Tel Aviv. On the northern border, intelligence has been systematically gathered to target Hezbollah’s leadership when necessary. Eliminating skilled terrorist leaders hiding in a distant, chaotic country is far from a walk in the park. – Ynet

Middle East & North Africa

Events in the Red Sea and regional challenges cost Egypt around $7 billion in revenues from the Suez Canal in 2024, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Thursday. Egypt lost more than 60% of the canal’s revenues in 2024 compared with 2023, Sisi added in his statement, without going into details on the events. – Reuters

Dubai’s benchmark share index jumped to its highest level in more than a decade on Thursday, lifted by real estate and industrial stocks, while most other markets in the Gulf also gained amid stronger oil prices. – Reuters

Nahal Toosi writes: No U.S. government — Democratic- or Republican-led — is likely to abandon Qatar. It may be friends with many shady actors, but it’s the shady actors that need to be engaged. At this point, Qatar is too vital a player in too many arenas, the kind that’s not easy to replace. – Politico

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s legislature voted to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo on Friday after he declined to make judicial appointments needed to advance the impeachment of his predecessor, extending the political upheaval that began with a short-lived martial law declaration earlier this month. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea’s spy agency said it has confirmed that an injured North Korean soldier was captured alive, the Yonhap news agency reported on Friday. – Reuters

A note that Ukrainian forces claim to have taken off a North Korean soldier killed in Russia details tactics allegedly being used to down drones after luring them with human bait. – Newsweek

China

China’s President Xi Jinping will visit Russia in 2025, Russia’s state-run RIA news agency quoted Moscow’s ambassador to Beijing as saying early on Friday. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department said that Hong Kong’s offered bounties for six more pro-democracy campaigners who were deemed to have violated national security laws and the revoking of the passports of seven more amounted to intimidation efforts. – Reuters

China’s coast guard conducted patrols around the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Friday to safeguard China’s territorial rights, state television CCTV reported. – Reuters

Oil rose slightly on Friday and was on track for a weekly gain, spurred by expectations of a stimulus-driven economic recovery in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, and by forecasts of lower U.S. inventories. – Reuters

China launched a new amphibious assault ship Friday, capable of launching fighter jets and designed to strengthen the navy’s combat ability in distant seas. – Associated Press

China’s leader Xi Jinping wants the recent spree of mass killings that shocked the country not to happen again. He ordered local governments to prevent future “extreme cases.” – Associated Press

Josh Rogin writes: The argument to skeptics should be straightforward: Why wouldn’t we want transparency on how U.S. companies are helping China’s technology industry? And why would anyone in the United States want to transfer the most sensitive technologies to America’s greatest adversary? In a perfect world, legislation on competing technologically with China would have stood on its own and not have been shoved into a last-minute spending measure. But it’s still an important issue that needs to be addressed. China’s strategy to surpass us could very well succeed if we fail to act. – Washington Post

Asia

Japan’s economy is gathering strength but momentum remains uneven, with indicators showing healthy growth in inflation and retail sales but a decline in industrial production. – Wall Street Journal

The Japanese Cabinet on Friday approved a record 8.7 trillion yen ($55 billion) defense budget for 2025 as Japan accelerates building up its strike-back capability with long-range cruise missiles and starts deploying Tomahawks to fortify itself against growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia. – Associated Press

A Malaysian man was caned at a mosque in the northeastern state of Terengganu on Friday for the Islamic crime of close proximity with a non-family member of the opposite sex, local media reported, in a rare public sentencing. – Reuters

The Thai government’s campaign to pressure the Bank of Thailand to cut interest rates suffered a significant setback, with the Office of the Council of State effectively ruling that the official nominee to be chairman, former finance minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong, is not suitable. – Bloomberg

Chinese buyers accounted for the largest proportion of foreign land and property acquisitions near sites deemed sensitive to Japan’s national security during fiscal year 2023, according to a government survey released Monday. – Newsweek

Christian Caryl writes: But Washington seems unlikely to take further action during the final weeks of the Biden administration, and the EU has until now failed to reach consensus on what should be done—not least because Hungary is poised to veto meaningful punishments. Meanwhile, Ivanishvili knows that making any concessions to the opposition could consign him to the same fate suffered by Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, who was toppled by another popular uprising motivated by passionate attachment to Europe. In Georgia, the irresistible force is about to meet the unmovable object. The window for a positive outcome is closing by the hour. – Foreign Affairs

Europe

Ten years ago, this town in central Germany was aging, rapidly depopulating and almost universally white. Today, its population has stabilized, is younger and includes people from 92 countries. – Wall Street Journal

Finland detained a tanker carrying Russian oil on the suspicion that it had severed undersea power and data cables on Christmas Day, prompting calls for NATO to defend against alleged sabotage of critical European infrastructure by Moscow. – Wall Street Journal

Estonia’s armed forces have launched a naval operation to protect the Estlink 1 undersea power cable in the Baltic Sea, Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said on Friday. – Reuters

Romania’s radar systems detected late on Thursday a small flying object, likely a drone, breaching national airspace up to 6 km inland in the southeastern county of Tulcea, the defence ministry said. – Reuters

The Parliament in ex-Soviet Moldova, controlled by pro-Western lawmakers, approved a 10-year defence strategy on Thursday calling for increased defence spending as part of a plan to join the European Union. – Reuters

As Donald Trump prepares to take office on January 20, Europe’s already battered car industry is bracing for additional headwinds amid the threat of new tariffs from the incoming U.S. president. – Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty

In an interview with Defense News, Vandier discussed his vision for modernizing the alliance’s approach to training, the need for greater risk taking and innovation in Europe, his top priorities for future systems, and his take on Russia’s new intermediate-range ballistic missile. – Defense News

Africa

At least 10 people were killed and several wounded when a Nigerian military fighter jet pursuing bandits in two villages mistakenly bombed civilians in the northwestern state of Sokoto on Wednesday, the state governor Ahmed Aliyu said. – Reuters

At least 69 people died, including 25 Malian nationals, after a boat headed from West Africa to Spain capsized off Morocco on Dec. 19, Malian authorities said. – Reuters

A biodiversity hotspot in a remote part of South Africa has become the hub of an illegal trade in protected plant species, with organised crime groups capitalising on overseas demand. – BBC

The Americas

The hot new trade on Wall Street has nothing to do with crypto, electric vehicles or artificial intelligence. It’s Argentina—the country infamous among investors for serial debt defaults. – Wall Street Journal

President-elect Donald J. Trump this week escalated his threats to retake control of the Panama Canal, falsely accusing Panama of allowing Chinese soldiers to control the vital shipping route and of overcharging American ships. – New York Times

Canada’s new finance minister Dominic LeBlanc and Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly will meet aides to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Florida on Friday to discuss the risks of imposing new trade tariffs, the Canadian government said. – Reuters

Guatemala is open to receiving citizens of other Central American nations who are deported from the United States, three sources familiar with the matter said, as the country looks to build a positive relationship with the incoming Trump administration. – Reuters

A justice on Brazil’s top court on Thursday suspended a law from the country’s top soy-producing state that would end tax breaks for firms following an agreement to not purchase soy from deforested areas of the Amazon rainforest. – Reuters

A probe into the military’s role in the disappearance of four children in Ecuador this month was delayed for almost two weeks, even though police had access to surveillance videos showing soldiers taking two of the children, The Associated Press has learned. – Associated Press

United States

U.S. immigration authorities will once more put families with children in detention centers when President-elect Donald Trump returns to office next month, according to incoming White House “border czar” Tom Homan. – Washington Post

A two-hour drive west of Shanghai, Sunny Hu has spent almost two months since the US election rushing shipments of her company’s outdoor furniture and pavilions to American customers and racing to diversify Hangzhou Skytech Outdoor Co. Ltd. into other markets. – Bloomberg

Eugene Robinson writes: President Joe Biden halted such raids. It would be disingenuous, however, to pretend that the Biden administration did a good job handling the border; the chaotic influx of asylum seekers was indeed a crisis until Biden belatedly cracked down this year. […] But Trump’s planned measures are punitive rather than remedial. People who hacked their way through the jungles of Panama and walked the length of Mexico for the chance to work, and to forge a better life for their families, are not rapists or murderers or “bad hombres,” as Trump has called them. Given the chance, in fact, a lot of them would surely become Republicans. – Washington Post

John Bolton writes: Using America’s money as an existential threat will rock the U.N. system. While many other reforms are possible, they won’t match the power of unilaterally controlling our contributions. Besides, we need a much larger defense budget; reducing contributions to the U.N. is a good start to find the necessary funding. – Wall Street Journal

Tamar Sternthal writes: Does USA Today’s news network really want to export the unholy nexus of hate, blame, and violence to communities across America, lending a hand to the most ancient bigotry and supplying perceived justifications for the next hate crime perpetrator? – Jerusalem Post

Cybersecurity

The South Korean government has sanctioned more than a dozen individuals and one organization for a wide-ranging global scheme to fund North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs through impersonating IT workers abroad, stealing cryptocurrency and facilitating cyberattacks. – Cyberscoop

The United Nations General Assembly adopted a landmark cybercrime convention on Tuesday, paving the way for significant changes to how governments police the internet. – The Record

Reva Goujon writes: For now, the unbridled optimism of technologists will keep the AI revolution moving forward, in hopes that the spread of the technology will transform humanity. At the same time, the anxiety of policymakers, who see economic and security risks lurking at every corner, will continue to drive efforts to channel AI competition toward zero-sum geopolitical goals. All recognize that power will accrue to those who hold the keys to AI development and deployment. As countries and tech giants jockey for position, the geopolitical tempest that ensues may overshadow the transformative potential of the technology. – Foreign Affairs

Defense

Blurry images of two seemingly new Chinese military aircraft with stealthy characteristics appeared online on Friday, with defence experts saying they were clearly advanced designs, but there was not enough detail for definitive conclusions. – Reuters

The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is now operating in the South China Sea, according to Pentagon imagery, while several U.S. Navy ships docked in Singapore over the Christmas period. – USNI News

If 2023 was the year that OpenAI’s ChatGPT exploded onto the public scene, 2024 was the year the US military and Intelligence Community began carefully wading into the potential of generative AI. – Breaking Defense

Long War

Pakistani security forces faced off with insurgents in three separate shootouts in the restive northwest bordering Afghanistan on Thursday, killing 13 militants, the military said. – Associated Press

A Palestinian man stabbed an 83-year-old woman to death in the Israeli city of Herzliya, Israeli media reported on Friday, in what police described as a terrorist attack. – Reuters

The Jerusalem District Attorney’s Office has filed a notice with the Jerusalem District Court to withdraw terrorism charges against four east Jerusalem residents, Israeli media reported on Friday. – Jerusalem Post