Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel is known worldwide as a cyber powerhouse. Yet hackers linked to its biggest adversary, Iran, have managed to pull off a series of successful breaches by using known vulnerabilities to attack institutions that aren’t as well-defended as the country’s critical infrastructure. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he will discuss Iran’s nuclear activities during his visit next week with U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

The Israeli military said it was reviewing an incident in the occupied West Bank in which soldiers shot dead a 16-year-old Palestinian who they said had thrown a brick at them, after CCTV footage appeared to show he was not doing so when shot. – Reuters

Turkey expects the second phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal to begin early in 2026, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Monday, following talks with U.S., Qatari and Egyptian officials in Miami over the weekend. – Reuters

The US and its allies are renewing their push to hold a conference on Gaza reconstruction, people familiar with the matter said, as the Trump administration looks to inject fresh momentum into a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after a string of setbacks. – Bloomberg

Israeli officials have slammed the latest report from an organization that earlier this year claimed there was famine in parts of Gaza, saying the new document is biased and that its conclusions were “predetermined.” – Fox News

The Israeli government has approved the closure of the country’s Army Radio after 75 years of broadcasting, in a move that shutters one of Israel’s oldest media institutions at a time of mounting concerns over press freedom. – CNN

Three people were reportedly killed in an airstrike on a vehicle near the coastal Lebanese city of Sidon, which Israel said targeted Hezbollah operatives on Monday. – Agence France-Presse

Israel, Greece, and Cyprus reaffirmed their commitment to mutual support and shared strategic interests at a trilateral summit between the three countries’ leaders in Jerusalem on Monday. – Jerusalem Post 

Jewish settlers beat and slaughter animals from a Palestinian family, from which its members were also assaulted, in the West Bank on Monday, Army Radio reported. – Jerusalem Post 

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s resignation, as he accused the current office of treason over reported Qatari funds given to his aides. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that a politically appointed commission of inquiry into the failings surrounding the October 7, 2023, invasion must include an examination of the 1993 Oslo Accords, the 2005 Disengagement from Gaza, and the 2023 protest movement against the current government’s judicial overhaul agenda. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Greece and Cyprus have stood with Israel – Greece even held a Greek Independence Day ceremony at Kibbutz Beeri to show solidarity – and now the relationship moves to the next level. Mitsotakis said that since the last trilateral summit in 2023, “we’ve now entered a new geopolitical phase,” one that “creates some serious risks, but also a profound window of opportunity to shape a regional security architecture that can deliver peace and prosperity.” Antiochus IV Epiphanes must be turning in his grave. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Even as President Donald Trump insists Russia has the upper hand in its war against Ukraine, economists say the country’s position is weaker than ever because the Kremlin has burned through most of the cash reserves and the borrowed money that fueled its wartime spending surge — and greater problems lie ahead. – Washington Post

A Ukrainian overnight drone attack sparked a fire at an industrial facility in Russia’s southern Stavropol region, the region’s governor, Vladimir Vladimirov, said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Polish and allied aircraft were deployed early on Tuesday to ensure the safety of Polish airspace after Russia launched airstrikes targeting western Ukraine near the border with Poland, the armed forces of the NATO-member country said. – Reuters

Russia attacked Kyiv and Ukraine’s energy infrastructure early on Tuesday, triggering emergency outages and prompting NATO member Poland to scramble jets to protect its airspace, two days after U.S.-led Miami peace talks ended. – Reuters 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that residents of a border village taken into Russia by Moscow’s troops had interacted with their neighbours for years without incident. – Reuters

Talks between Russia and the United States in Miami on ways to resolve the conflict in Ukraine should not be seen as a breakthrough, the Izvestia news outlet cited Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying in remarks published on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russia is ready to confirm in a legal agreement that it has no intention of attacking either the European Union or the U.S.-led NATO military alliance, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Monday, the state RIA news agency reported. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Monday that U.S. intelligence was wrong if it believed Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to seize all of Ukraine and parts of Europe that were once part of the former Soviet empire. – Reuters

The Russian war machine’s scramble to secure an unlikely component for its ammunition – cotton pulp – may have found a potential supply in Uzbekistan, where a new plant’s capacity far outstrips domestic demand. – Bloomberg

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday there are signs negotiators are “very close” to a finished peace proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, including U.S. security guarantees that will require congressional approval. – The Hill

Vice President JD Vance gave a stark outlook on the reality of the Russia-Ukraine war, saying he doesn’t have “confidence” there will be a peaceful solution to the gruesome conflict reaching its fourth year. – Politico 

Jeanne Shaheen and Mitch McConnell write: Congress has an array of bipartisan tools to increase pressure on Putin. In October, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced measures to tighten sanctions enforcement, restrict Chinese support for Russia’s war machine and authorize transferring frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. […] Putin is betting the U.S. will talk itself into believing Ukraine cannot succeed. The past four years show the opposite. Ukraine has defied every expectation, including our own. Kyiv is not losing, and Moscow is not winning. It is up to Washington to match Ukraine’s resolve with the clarity this moment demands. – Washington Post

Middle East & North Africa

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam urged cabinet to swiftly approve a draft law allowing depositors to gradually recover funds frozen in the banking system since a financial collapse in 2019, a move critical to reviving the economy. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it had reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt on the fifth and sixth reviews under its Extended Fund Facility arrangement, potentially unlocking a roughly $2.5 billion disbursement under the programme. – Reuters

The U.S State Department’s independent watchdog is reviewing a request from two Democratic senators to investigate whether Trump officials Steve Witkoff and David Sacks broke ethics rules in connection with deals involving the United Arab Emirates, Semafor reported on Monday. – Reuters

April Longley Alley writes: In any case, exploring compromises that align Gulf and Yemeni partners is worth the effort. Ideally, the United States can unify the various pressures that these partners have to offer against the Houthis while simultaneously testing their willingness to accept a durable national political settlement—namely, a deal that secures the Red Sea region, reassures Yemen’s neighbors, and addresses internal demands for political balance and southern independence. With the right combination of U.S. pressure and engagement, the events in Hadramawt could serve as a long-needed wakeup call to contain Houthi ambitions, end the country’s protracted war, and limit its destabilizing regional spillover. – Washington Institute

China

In cities and small towns across China, two seemingly contradictory facts are simultaneously true: China is closing the gap with the U.S. for global technological dominance, and yet big parts of its economy are a mess. – Wall Street Journal

China will impose provisional anti-subsidy duties on EU dairy products, following an investigation launched in August. China’s domestic dairy industry has been hurt by EU subsidies, the Commerce Ministry said Monday. The provisional duties effective Dec. 23 range from 21.9% to 42.7%. – Wall Street Journal

Early this year, Chinese automakers enthusiastically announced that they would soon be mass-producing and selling self-driving vehicles. Most of those plans have now been delayed after a deadly crash that drew broad public attention. – New York Times

China Vanke, the latest developer to teeter in the country’s long-running real estate crisis, said bondholders had agreed to a plan that gave the company a 30-day grace period to negotiate repayment of a $285 million bond issue. – New York Times

China on Tuesday urged the United States to fulfill its nuclear disarmament responsibilities after a draft Pentagon report said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles and has no desire for arms control talks. The U.S. should create conditions for other nuclear weapon states to disarm, Lin Jian, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, said during a regular press conference. – Reuters

China has lodged a diplomatic complaint with Japan regarding the visit by a high-ranking official of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to Taiwan, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Monday, as ties between the East Asian nations strain. – Reuters

The top priority for Thailand and Cambodia is to agree to a ceasefire and stop fighting as soon as possible resume dialogue, and resolve their border disputes peacefully, a special Chinese envoy to the region said. – Reuters

China on Monday accused the U.S. of violating international law in seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, appearing to take the side of Caracas as Washington looks to take a third oil tanker this month. – The Hill

Editorial: U.S. lawmakers have warned the U.K. that China could use the embassy to step up espionage and harassment of critics abroad. The mega-embassy would be “a new mega-hub of transnational repression,” Ms. Lau says. “The experience that I actually had, I would say, proved that point.” China’s egregious behavior merits a firm British response. Beijing’s Communist leaders will feel emboldened if the British Labour government rewards them by approving the new embassy spy platform in London. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Breaking China’s dominance will require creativity and patience. But the goal should be nonnegotiable. The United States and its allies must solve their rare earth problem. The world’s democracies cannot depend on the most powerful authoritarian state — and an increasingly aggressive one — for critical minerals. The potential costs, to prosperity and freedom, are too great. – New York Times

Asia

The Japanese parliament has approved the nation’s largest defense budget yet, allocating 2 percent of its GDP to military spending two years ahead of schedule, a reflection of the escalating security threats in the region and the increasing pressure from the Trump administration on allies to spend more on their own defense. – Washington Post

Australia’s most populous state is set to pass tougher gun laws, ban the display of terrorist symbols and curb protests in an emergency sitting following the Bondi mass shooting, as authorities stepped up their response to the antisemitic attack. The terrorism and other legislation amendment bill is expected to clear the upper house of the New South Wales parliament on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Senior officials of Vietnam’s Communist Party wrapped up on Tuesday a meeting which finalised decisions on candidates for the next top leadership of the country, party chief To Lam said, but no names were released. – Reuters

A wave of visits to Taiwan by Japanese lawmakers is underway, underscoring the close ties between Tokyo and Taipei and drawing a sharp response from Beijing. – Bloomberg

Cambodia and Thailand agreed to discuss conditions for a ceasefire later this week, after foreign ministers from Southeast Asian nations met in Kuala Lumpur in a fresh bid to end deadly border clashes between the two neighbors. – Bloomberg

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim urged all parties to handle jailed former leader Najib Razak’s failed bid for house arrest with “full patience and wisdom,” after Monday’s court judgment tested ties within the ruling coalition. – Bloomberg

Africa

The U.S. has been conducting intelligence-gathering flights over large parts of Nigeria since late November, according to flight tracking data and current and former U.S. officials, in a sign of increased security cooperation between the countries. – Reuters

Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera is seeking a controversial third term on Sunday after a decade in office in which he has turned to Russia for security in exchange for access to gold and other resources. – Reuters

Since seizing power in a coup four years ago, Mamady Doumbouya has overhauled Guinea’s minerals sector and launched a huge iron ore project, achievements he hopes will secure him victory in a presidential election meant to cap a return to civilian rule. – Reuters

Sudan’s prime minister on Monday proposed a wide-ranging peace initiative to end a nearly 1,000-day war with a rival paramilitary force, but the United States urged both sides to accept the Trump administration’s call for an immediate humanitarian truce. – Associated Press

A 32-year-old suspect has been arrested in connection with a mass shooting which claimed the lives of 12 people including three children at an unlicensed pub earlier this month, South African police said on Monday. – Associated Press

Russia has sent arms to Madagascar’s military government, which assumed power in an October coup. A Russian airforce plane carrying 40 military personnel and 43 crates of weapons landed at the international airport near Antananarivo, the capital, on Dec. 20, National Assembly Speaker Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko said a statement on Monday. – Bloomberg

United States

The U.S.’s pursuit of oil tankers around Venezuela is part of a new legal strategy under the Trump administration to seize ships that transport black market oil around the world, according to Justice Department officials. – Wall Street Journal

A mistrial was declared Monday in the trial of former New York state aide Linda Sun as jurors deadlocked over allegations that she became rich from acting as a Chinese agent. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration has recalled more than two dozen career diplomats from ambassador positions and other senior posts around the world as it works to enforce adherence with President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, current and former U.S. officials said. – Washington Post

The Trump administration is suing the local government of Washington, D.C., over its gun laws, alleging that restrictions on certain semiautomatic weapons run afoul of Second Amendment rights. – Associated Press

The Trump administration will investigate Brown University after the shooting rampage this month that killed two students and injured nine others to determine whether the school met requirements regarding security. – Bloomberg

At least 20% of Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s transition committee members have ties to radical anti-Zionist groups that “openly promote terror and harass Jewish people,” the Anti-Defamation League found in a stinging report Monday. – New York Post

Walter Russell Mead writes: Yet we can hope. European support for Ukraine could force Mr. Putin to think about how much more of his country he wants to mortgage to Beijing to wage an indefinitely prolonged war. As China’s structural economic crisis intensifies, Mr. Xi may rethink his approach to world politics. And who knows—the Trump administration may even double down on what works and learn to regulate its most dysfunctional impulses. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The U.S. military said Monday that it had conducted another strike against a boat it said was smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean, killing one person. – Associated Press

President Trump announced on Monday a new class of battleships as part of the U.S. Navy’s “Golden Fleet.” – The Hill

As the U.S. military continues to build up forces to deter China in the increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region, a recent Government Accountability Office report claims that clear guidance on how it funds those deterrence efforts has yet to be provided. – Defense News