Fdd's overnight brief

December 23, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

The black-clad militants of Jenin refugee camp raced through sewage-filled alleyways to dodge gunfire echoing all around. “Quickly,” a Palestinian fighter urged as they weaved through a network of armed patrols and improvised barricades. “Watch out,” another warned at a juncture where an improvised explosive was being set. – Washington Post

Iranian-backed Houthi militants launched a missile from Yemen that landed in Tel Aviv early Saturday morning after air defenses failed to intercept it, the latest in an increasing barrage of Houthi attacks. – New York Times

Israel’s bombardment and invasion of Gaza in response to the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack last year has unleashed a humanitarian crisis in the enclave, with more than 45,000 people dead, according to local health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. – New York Times

Israel ordered the closure and evacuation on Sunday of one of the last hospitals still partly functioning in a besieged area on the northern edge of the Gaza Strip, forcing medics to search for a way to bring hundreds of patients and staff to safety. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday Israel would continue acting against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, whom he accused of threatening world shipping and the international order, and called on Israelis to be steadfast. – Reuters

At least 10 Palestinians, including two children, were killed in Israeli airstrikes on two houses in the Nuseirat refugee camp and Deir Al-Balah city in the central Gaza Strip, medics told Reuters on Saturday. – Reuters

Sweden will no longer fund the U.N. refugee agency for Palestinians (UNRWA) and will instead provide increased overall humanitarian assistance to Gaza via other channels, the Nordic country said on Friday. – Reuters

Israeli settlers set fire to a mosque in the occupied West Bank, Palestinian residents said on Friday, and video showed “Revenge”, “Death to Arabs” and other slogans had been spray-painted in Hebrew on the building’s facade. – Reuters

Winter is hitting the Gaza Strip and many of the nearly 2 million Palestinians displaced by the devastating 14-month war with Israel are struggling to protect themselves from the wind, cold and rain. – Associated Press

Israeli strikes across the Gaza Strip overnight and into Sunday killed at least 22 people, including five children, Palestinian medical officials said, while Gaza’s small Christian community celebrated a pre-Christmas Mass. – Associated Press

Pressure is building on the controversial U.N. agency UNRWA over its alleged and extensive ties with terror leaders that has propelled hatred for Israel and support for terror through its curricula. Even as 159 countries in the U.N. – Fox News

Israel accused Pope Francis of “double standards” on Saturday after he condemned Israeli airstrikes in Gaza at the top of his annual Christmas address to the Vatican’s Catholic cardinals. – Agence France-Presse

As working groups continued their efforts in Qatar to hammer out a hostage and ceasefire deal in the Gaza Strip, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Sunday that Hamas has provided signs of life for several captives. – Times of Israel

The family of Palestinian political leader and convicted terrorist Marwan Barghouti took off to Qatar on Friday to discuss the possibility of his release to Turkey as part of a hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, i24NEWS can report. They were accompanied by an attorney. – i24 News

Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Bartoszewski confirmed that if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz next month, he will be arrested in accordance with the ICC arrest warrant. – World Israel News

Editorial: This means that while one threat is immediate and timely – and is already exacting its price in the unity and well-being of Israeli society – the other is immediate and less bound by time because of the nature of Tehran’s goals. This government is sworn to protect Israel’s security; its eye cannot be taken off the ball. Iran’s axis is not destroyed, though it is weak. It is up to this government on our end, and the international community and Yemeni forces on the other, to remove this threat that is the Houthis and restore stability to this war-sodden country. – Jerusalem Post

Atar Porat writes: Under this proposal, the US could be the “shock absorber” between Israel and Turkey and use its vast military alliance with both countries to reach an accommodation that is tolerable for Israel. President Trump reportedly has a congenial relationship with President Erdogan and a very close view of Iran as Israel. With the political stars aligning, Israel, as a regional power, should use its new and improved geopolitical position to advance its security interests by playing “smart” and based on the reality on the ground, not wishful thinking. Supporting the Kurds is anything but that. – Jerusalem Post 

Ruby Chen writes: For families like mine, this is deeply personal. The empty seat at our table this past Thanksgiving was a painful reminder of what we’ve lost. Yet we continue to hope. We are praying for our own personal holiday miracle and to be reunited with Itay. Adam Boehler has the experience, authority and opportunity to turn that hope into reality. I urge him to act decisively, so no other American or any other family has to endure this pain.  Let’s not wait another day. Bring them home. – The Hill

Aziz Alghashian writes: At the same time, the discourse should underscore that diversifying the peace process and integrating the Palestinians into the broader Middle East can generate important opportunities for all sides. While the incoming Trump administration may be welcomed by the extreme-right Netanyahu cabinet, the US president-elect is preoccupied with peace to do business. Diversifying the peace process and Palestinian regional integration, therefore, would not be antithetical to Donald Trump’s preferred vision for the Middle East. That is precisely why Saudi Arabia and other proponents of a two-state-solution need to be more proactive about constructively influencing and steering the discourse to incentive all of the stakeholders to pursue this solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. – Middle East Institute

Iran

Government offices in Iran are closed or operating at reduced hours. Schools and colleges have moved to online only. Highways and shopping malls have descended into darkness, and industrial plants have been denied power, bringing manufacturing to a near halt. – New York Times

The Biden administration is concerned that a weakened Iran could build a nuclear weapon, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Sunday, adding that he was briefing President-elect Donald Trump’s team on the risk. – Reuters

Iran has summoned the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, who represents U.S. interests in the country, and a senior Italian diplomat over the arrest by the U.S. of two Iranian nationals this week, Iranian media reported on Saturday. – Reuters

The U.S. Justice Department said on Friday it had charged a captain in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards with murder and terrorism offenses in the 2022 death of American Stephen Troell in Iraq. – Reuters

Investigators say that all three attacks this year are part of a new trend in which Iran-affiliated actors recruit local criminals, including minors, to strike at Jewish and Israeli targets in Europe. The Iranian mission at the United Nations didn’t respond to a request for comment. – Bloomberg

Iran’s supreme leader denied Sunday that terrorist groups around the region functioned as Tehran’s proxies, warning that if his country chose to “take action,” it would not need them anyway. – Agence France-Presse

Hamidreza Azizi writes: Yet equally critical to ensuring security in Syria will be diplomatic efforts to prevent further destabilization in Iran. Tehran’s growing sense of insecurity following Assad’s fall may drive the country’s leadership to escalate activities that destabilize the region, such as efforts to further strengthen allied militias in Iraq and Yemen or inciting sectarian tensions in Syria. The United States should, in fact, offer Iran a seat at the table during regional talks over Syria’s future, addressing Tehran’s security concerns while calling on its leadership to de-escalate on other fronts. This strategy could curtail Iran’s disruptive influence in Syria and the greater Middle East—and possibly even open the door to more comprehensive diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran. – Foreign Affairs

Russia & Ukraine

Facing an invasion by an enemy with four times its population and an economy 10 times larger, Ukraine has tried to build up its weapons production by embracing a hyper-capitalist model. Encouraged by tax cuts, deregulation and government grants, more than 200 new munitions companies have sprung up since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, according to Ukrainian officials. – Wall Street Journal

The donation of around 50 vehicles was a drop in the bucket for Russia’s military—but an indication of how deep the deficit of armor has become for one of the world’s most powerful armies. Two-and-a-half years of intense warfare along a 600-mile front has taken its toll, while sanctions have cut off access to Western parts. – Wall Street Journal

The stakes of this mission lay in Russia, where jail cells were filling up with political prisoners and a growing list of Americans seized as hostages in a geopolitical game of arresting and trading people like pawns. For every Russian spy the U.S. and its allies could capture, one of the Kremlin’s prisoners could be exchanged into freedom. – Wall Street Journal

Russia unleashed a barrage of ballistic missiles on Kyiv early Friday, killing at least one person and injuring 12, city officials said. – Washington Post

Until recently, Ukrainian medics treated wounded soldiers like him at stations inside of Kursk, in territory occupied by Ukraine since an invasion five months ago. But Russians have advanced far enough into the salient that the fighting has pushed the medical staff back over the border.- Washington Post

Ukraine has so far weathered the effects of three major Russian strikes over the past month by cutting street lighting and imposing intermittent shutdowns to ease pressure on the power grid. But two years of attacks on power plants and substations have left the country’s energy network on the verge of collapse, experts say. – New York Times

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said he considered the sometimes harsh criticism of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to be unjustified, news wire DPA reported. – Reuters

The airport in the Russian city of Kazan reopened on Saturday after temporarily closing earlier in the day following a Ukrainian drone attack, Russia’s aviation watchdog said. – Reuters

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Sunday its air defence systems destroyed 42 Ukrainian drones over five Russian regions during the night. – Reuters

Ukraine’s air defences downed 52 of the 103 Russian drones launched overnight, the Ukrainian military said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russian forces captured two villages in Ukraine, one in Kharkiv region in the northeast and one in eastern Donetsk region, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russia poses a bigger threat to European Union security than just defence as Moscow can use illegal immigration and other issues to undermine the bloc, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Sunday. – Reuters

The Russian embassy in London on Saturday described Britain’s planned transfer to Ukraine of more than 2 billion pounds ($2.5 billion) backed by frozen Russian assets as a “fraudulent scheme”. – Reuters

The Biden administration will announce in the coming days its final Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, using up the remaining funds set aside to buy new weapons for Ukraine, according to two sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Ukrainian drones struck a major Russian fuel depot for the second time in just over a week on Sunday, according to a senior Russian regional official, as part of a “massive” cross-border attack on fuel and energy facilities that Kyiv says supply Moscow’s military. – Associated Press

North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were given fake military documents with Russian names and birthplaces, the Ukrainian military said, amid claims from Kyiv that Russia is trying to conceal the presence of foreign fighters on the battlefield. – CNN

Editorial: Mr. Putin said he’s “ready to talk any time” with Mr. Trump, and some will dismiss his tough talk as merely the opening bid in what will be an inevitable deal. But it’s a mistake to think the Kremlin boss has given up his designs to turn Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus. Letting Russia prevail in Ukraine on anything close to Mr. Putin’s terms would send a message of appeasement that would surely mean a larger war in the future. Mr. Trump can’t let Ukraine become his Afghanistan. – Wall Street Journal

Hezbollah

Two recently retired senior Israeli intelligence agents shared new details about a deadly clandestine operation years in the making that targeted Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and Syria using exploding pagers and walkie talkies three months ago. – Associated Press

Israel won’t permit Hezbollah operatives to return to villages in southern Lebanon and reestablish infrastructure that would pose a threat to Israeli communities, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday. – Bloomberg

Human rights group Amnesty International on Friday condemned Lebanese terror group Hezbollah for firing salvos of unguided rockets at civilian areas of Israel during the latest conflict. – Agence France-Presse

Iran is considering smuggling weapons to Hezbollah via air to Lebanon since the overland routes it previously used in Syria are no longer practicable, according to a Times report on Monday, citing a source with knowledge of the matter. – Jerusalem Post

Two Jerusalem residents in their 30s have been indicted for contact with Hezbollah and providing the Iran-backed terror group with information as it battled Israel over the past year. – Times of Israel

Syria

Syria has never truly been a free country. Ruled by either foreign powers or strongmen for hundreds of years, Syrians have struggled for self-determination in fits and starts. Now, the country is starting a new chapter in its history after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, whose family reigned with an iron fist for the past 54 years. – Wall Street Journal

Europe and the U.S. are trying to navigate an awkward choice in Syria: work with Islamists long designated as terrorists in the West or risk ceding influence to the countries that will. – Wall Street Journal

Senior U.S. diplomats on Friday held their first formal talks in Damascus with the leader of the Islamist rebels who overthrew the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a discussion they later characterized as “good” and “thorough.” – Washington Post

Although the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria was shockingly quick, rebuilding the devastated economy he left behind will be painfully slow. – New York Times

As rebels advanced toward the Syrian capital of Damascus on Dec. 7, the staff in the hilltop Presidential Palace prepared for a speech they hoped would lead to a peaceful end to the 13-year civil war. – New York Times

The Kremlin on Monday rejected Turkish media reports which suggested that Asma al-Assad, the British-born wife of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, wanted a divorce and to leave Russia. – Reuters

Syria’s de facto ruler Ahmed al-Sharaa hosted Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt on Sunday in another effort to reassure minorities they will be protected after Islamist rebels led the ouster of Bashar al-Assad two weeks ago. – Reuters

Syria’s new rulers have appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra, a leading figure in the insurgency which toppled Bashar al-Assad, as defence minister in the interim government, an official source said on Saturday. – Reuters

Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa said on Sunday his administration would announce the new structure of the defence ministry and military within days. – Reuters

The U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said five of its fighters had been killed on Saturday in attacks by Turkish-backed forces on the city of Manbij in northern Syria. – Reuters

The United Nations Security Council on Friday extended a long-running peacekeeping mission between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights for six months and expressed concern that military activities in the area could escalate tensions. – Reuters

Syria’s leadership isn’t the only aspect of the country to be changing as a result of this month’s toppling of longtime dictator, Bashar al-Assad. The blurring of its borders is also underway — from Israel to the southwest and Turkey to the north. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin reportedly spoke after the November election, and Mr. Trump urged the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine. Mr. Trump should also ask Mr. Putin for any information he can get about Mr. Tice’s whereabouts. After 12 years missing in Syria, Mr. Tice would now be 43, his beard graying, his face creased by age and the inevitable hardships of captivity. His family yearns to see that face again; and their government must use this possibly fleeting opportunity to help them do it. – Washington Post

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: Meanwhile, members of Congress are increasingly discussing ways of easing various Syria sanctions related to the former regime. Yet if HTS continues to monopolize power as it did in Idlib—for example, by using a preselected list to limit who takes part in the imminent national dialogue process—U.S. legislators will likely take this as a negative sign and keep sanctions in place for the time being. Once the delegation returns from Syria, officials will have a much better sense of how the transition will unfold and whether the process will give Washington and Damascus more opportunities to work together, perhaps with fewer sanctions complicating their engagement. – Washington Institute

Andrew J. Tabler, Ibrahim Al-Assil, Farouq Habib, Rafif Jouejati, and Mahmoud Meslat write: Lastly, international sanctions against HTS and Syria cannot remain. Keeping them in place would impede reconstruction and worsen the country’s risk of becoming a failed state, which is still a serious concern. Syria desperately needs international support to bolster its infrastructure, services, and resources. Syrians know how to generate positive progress toward a peaceful, unified future, but the international community must support their efforts. – Washington Institute

Emma Beals writes: However, all actors must remember this is not only a technical process. The scale of the killing, detention, and oppression means that supporting survivors through psychosocial assistance and the whole of society through an appropriate transitional justice or reconciliation process that allows communities to rebuild their social fabric is a vital element of security policy moving forward. Almost every Syrian family has had someone detained or disappeared. Many more were forced to support, witness, or live in fear of the sprawling security apparatus. The trauma caused by the Assad regime will have a long tail; it is up to all of us to help Syrians heal. – Middle East Institute

Turkey

Turkey’s foreign minister said after meeting Syria’s de facto leader in Damascus on Sunday that there was no room for Kurdish militants in Syria’s future, calling for the YPG militia to disband. – Reuters

Turkey expects foreign countries will withdraw support for Kurdish fighters in Syria following the toppling of Bashar al-Assad, President Tayyip Erdogan said, as Ankara seeks to isolate Kurds who have long fought alongside U.S. troops. – Reuters

Two U.S. senators introduced bipartisan legislation on Friday that would impose sanctions on Turkey, citing concerns over military action by that country or groups that it backs, in northern Syria. – Reuters

Samuele C. A. Abrami and Riccardo Gasco write: Nevertheless, with no roadmap in sight and the uncertain situation in Syria, the Kurdish issue will remain a central and unresolved challenge influencing Turkey’s domestic politics, regional strategies, and international relations. Whether Pandora’s box reopens, remains sealed, or shatters largely depends on these three elements of the equation aligning or continuing to diverge. – War on the Rocks

Robert D. Kaplan writes:  But now we have the possibility of a national leader who appears sensible about governance instead of ideology. And he is home-grown, not the product of an invasion by a foreign power. The fact that he is Islamist might not matter much since, in this part of the world, religiosity is entrenched in a way that it hasn’t been in the West since the days when Europe was known as Christendom. The question presents itself: can Syria forge a path out of chaos without the need for an extreme ideology to hold it together? To call for democracy is premature. There is no precedent for a successful democracy in the Arab world. What the country’s new rulers must create now is a new and less oppressive order. That would morally justify their revolt and be the lesson of Camus’ The Rebel. – National Interest

Lebanon

A prominent Lebanese politician held talks on Sunday with the insurgent who led the overthrow of Syria’s President Bashar Assad, with both expressing hope for a new era in relations. – Associated Press

Lebanese official media said the Israeli army handed over seven people to United Nations observers at the border on Sunday, amid a delicate ceasefire between Israel and the Hezbollah terror group. – Agence France-Presse

The Lebanese Finance Ministry drafted a law for approval by the Cabinet and Parliament seeking to grant tax and duty exemptions for individuals whose property was damaged by Israeli attacks in Lebanon, Lebanese state National News Agency reported on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Yemen

Two U.S. Navy pilots ejected from their jet fighter over the Red Sea after being caught in “an apparent case of friendly-fire,” U.S. Central Command said Sunday, as American forces conducted a new round of attacks against the Houthi militant group in Yemen overnight. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military said it conducted precision airstrikes on Saturday against a missile storage facility and a command-and-control facility operated by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa. – Reuters

Eugene Kontorovich writes: The Trump administration should begin by redesignating the Houthis as a terror group. The U.S. should seek a significant expansion of attacks against Houthi targets. In this, America need not put more of its service members in harm’s way. It can rely on its ally Israel, which this month executed extensive airstrikes on Houthi ports. Israel could do more with sufficient munitions. But only the U.S. can provide the naval assets, and the pressure on Iran, needed to remove the Houthi threat. – Wall Street Journal

Middle East & North Africa

Most stock markets in the Gulf were up on Monday, after cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data revived hopes for further policy easing by the Federal Reserve. – Reuters 

Israel’s security establishment is weighing the issuance of a travel warning for Egypt ahead of Hanukkah due to intelligence indicating potential Iranian-directed terrorist attacks against Israelis. – Jerusalem Post

The United States government on Friday authorized the sale of more than $5 billion in military equipment to Egypt, which has become an increasingly close partner in mediating the Gaza crisis despite serious human rights concerns. – Times of Israel

Korean Peninsula

North Korea and Russia are deepening their military cooperation, as Pyongyang ramps up the supply of arms to Moscow for the war in Ukraine and receives much needed cash and oil from the Kremlin in return. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea’s main opposition party threatened on Monday to impeach acting president Han Duck-soo if he failed to proclaim a law to launch a special counsel investigation into President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed bid to impose martial law. – Reuters

South Korea’s finance minister said on Monday some slowdown in economic growth would be unavoidable as the government prepares to revise forecasts for this year and next year due to the country’s ongoing political turmoil. – Reuters

Demonstrators supporting and opposing South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol held rival protests several hundred metres apart in Seoul on Saturday, a week after he was impeached over his short-lived declaration of martial law. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called to step up development of the country’s industrial production in regions outside Pyongyang to strengthen rural economies, state media KCNA said on Saturday. – Reuters

Victor Cha writes: The past two weeks in South Korean politics have featured enough twists to fill a Netflix K-drama. President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, shocking even some of his own advisers. In a late-night session, the national legislature overturned it. A few days later, the besieged president begged forgiveness from his people, while a corruption scandal engulfed the first lady. Legislators voted to impeach Yoon last weekend and suspend his powers, which have been transferred to a caretaker government run by the prime minister. For now, Yoon remains in office; the country’s highest court will decide whether he can stay. – The Atlantic

China

China said on Sunday it was taking countermeasures against two Canadian institutions and 20 people involved in human rights issues concerning the Uyghurs and Tibet. – Reuters

Seven Chinese citizens were arrested on charges of illegally entering Guam around the time the U.S. Missile Defense Agency conducted a key missile interception test using a new radar, the island’s Customs and Quarantine Agency has said. – Reuters

China criticised new U.S. military aid to Taiwan on Sunday, saying the $571 million package seriously violates the “one China principle” and provisions of joint communiques between China and the U.S. – Reuters

China’s coast guard said on Friday it warned and “drove away” a Philippine C-208 aircraft that “illegally” entered the airspace over Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. – Reuters

A Chinese bulk carrier that is under investigation following a breach of two fibre-optic cables in the Baltic Sea is again moving after sitting still for more than a month in a nearby Danish shipping lane, The Swedish Coastguard said on Saturday. – Reuters

The Chinese government protested Sunday the latest American announcements of military sales and assistance to Taiwan, warning the United States that it is “playing with fire.” – Associated Press

South Asia

Ten years have passed since Ajoon Khan’s son died in a ghastly attack by the Pakistani Taliban that killed about 150 people, mostly children, at a military-run school in Peshawar, in northwestern Pakistan. – New York Times

Sixteen security personnel were killed in northwest Pakistan in an attack by Islamist militants early on Saturday, a senior police official in the South Waziristan region said, as Islamist fighters step up their assaults on the security forces. – Reuters

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday dismissed as unfounded and “devoid of rationality” assertions by a senior U.S. official that its missile programme could eventually pose a threat to the United States. – Reuters

Twenty-five civilians were sentenced by a Pakistani military court to periods of two to 10 years of “rigorous imprisonment” in connection with attacks on military facilities in 2023, the armed forces’ media wing said on Saturday. – Reuters

Asia

Over the span of 12 days — and in time for Christmas — Australia has unveiled a string of deals with Pacific Island nations to dole out what those countries may have put on the top of their wish lists. The agreements appeared to be the culmination of months of behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts aimed at curbing China’s growing influence in a strategically vital corridor of the Pacific Ocean. – New York Times

Taiwan’s cabinet warned on Monday the island’s security might be at risk after opposition parties passed laws that will require cuts in government spending, including defence, at a time when China has ramped up military activity nearby. – Reuters

Australia’s Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said on Monday he had approved a United States extradition request for former U.S. Marines pilot Daniel Duggan, who faces charges including breaking U.S. arms control law by training Chinese military pilots to land on aircraft carriers. – Reuters

Vietnam will start building a new railway from its largest northern port to the border with China by the end of next year, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh said.- Reuters

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev replaced his deputy prime minister, who also served as economy minister, by presidential decree on Saturday. – Reuters

A rebel army in Myanmar said it had captured a major military headquarters in the country’s west, marking the fall of the junta’s second regional command as it faces mounting setbacks against a nationwide armed resistance movement. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday agreed to provide $571.3 million in defense support for Taiwan, the White House said, while the State Department approved the potential sale to the island of $265 million worth of military equipment. – Reuters

Cambodia’s influential former Prime Minister Hun Sen said on Friday that Japan would be granted visitation rights to the country’s Ream Naval Base, a facility the United States is concerned could become a military outpost for China. – Reuters

Laura Linderman writes: It needs to impose targeted sanctions on Ivanishvili and other key figures in the Georgian Dream regime, including those responsible for authorizing violence against protesters. It also needs to increase support for Georgian civil society and independent media, as well as funding for pro-democracy groups in the country through agencies such as USAID. The crisis in Georgia presents a critical test for the West’s commitment to democracy and the rule of law. A failure to act decisively will have far-reaching consequences, not only for the Georgian people but also for the state of authoritarianism in a critical world region that remains very much up for grabs. – National Interest

Europe

When a driver rammed a car through a festive Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg shortly after 7 p.m. on Friday, leaving five dead and more than 200 wounded, the country seemed to be facing a repeat of its worst Islamist terrorist attack in recent history. – Wall Street Journal

Elon Musk on Friday voiced his support for Alternative for Germany, a far-right German political party that has been classified by German intelligence as a suspected extremist organization. – Washington Post

Romania’s outgoing president Klaus Iohannis is expected to designate leftist Social Democrat Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to form a new government on Monday after three pro-European parties agreed to the details of a parliamentary majority. – Reuters

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin on Sunday, a rare visit by a European Union leader to Moscow as a contract allowing for Russian gas to transit through Ukraine nears expiry. – Reuters

The first time French police informed the Chechen refugee that he was prohibited from leaving the northeastern city of Strasbourg and must check in with them daily, he did not think it worth contesting the order. – Reuters

Tens of thousands of people gathered in central Belgrade on Sunday to protest against President Aleksandar Vucic and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), whom they blame for a railway station roof collapse last month that killed 15 people. – Reuters

 U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Saturday he had selected the producer of his long-running reality television show, “The Apprentice,” to be his administration’s special envoy to the United Kingdom. – Reuters

Switzerland and the European Union on Friday unveiled a deal to carry out the biggest overhaul of their trade ties in years, overcoming Swiss concerns about immigration and setting the scene for a fraught and lengthy approval process. – Reuters

Iceland’s president presented a new government on Saturday under Social Democratic Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir that aims to cut inflation and interest rates and hold a referendum on European Union membership by 2027, public broadcaster RUV said. – Reuters

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Friday that European leaders must acknowledge the need to change their strategy regarding Ukraine. – Associated Press

Lynn Dascha Engelhardt writes: The stakes are existential. If Germany lets go of its responsibility to Jewish life and memory, it risks severing the very foundation of its post-war identity. But if it ignores the voices of its new citizens – those who carry their own histories of displacement and struggle – it risks becoming a country divided against itself. This is a moment of reckoning. Germany must decide whether it can carry its past into the future without being consumed by it. Will it rise to this challenge, or will it prove that even the deepest lessons of history can fade? In choosing, Germany does not just define itself – it defines what it means to remember. – Jerusalem Post

Abdulla Ibrahim writes: Despite these possibilities of engaging with the United States, Europe should not be surprised if Washington pursues its own agenda with Moscow. This will require both managing expectations and preparing for times when U.S. interests diverge from Europe’s. The challenge for Europe is to compartmentalize the issues and establish new rules for the relationship to minimize damage. The inevitable will be for Europe to take care of its own business and become more independent. But will Washington accept that? This remains an open question. – National Interest

Africa

Attacks that killed dozens of civilians and soldiers in Niger this month have put a spotlight on the military’s failure to restore security in the West African nation, nearly 18 months after staging a coup. – New York Times

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized back control of a key logistical base in North Darfur on Sunday, the paramilitary group said, a day after it was taken by rival forces allied with Sudan’s army. – Reuters

The U.S. Department of State said on Friday that it is imposing visa restrictions on multiple individuals responsible for the ongoing conflict in South Sudan. – Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron expressed full support on Saturday for Ethiopia’s debt restructuring efforts, emphasising the need for a swift resolution “in the coming weeks”. – Reuters

More than 700 people have been killed in al-Fashir in Sudan’s North Darfur state since May, the U.N. human rights chief said on Friday, imploring the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces to halt a siege of the city. – Reuters

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters have said they will work with a planned new government to oversee territories they control, the starkest move they have made towards a partition of the country after 20 months of civil war. – Reuters

The United Nations Security Council voted to extend the mandate for a long-running U.N. peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo for another year on Friday, further delaying an agreed withdrawal from conflict-torn eastern provinces. – Reuters

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) said on Friday that three of its staff were killed in war-torn Sudan’s Blue Nile state on Thursday after an aerial strike on its compound. – Reuters

Suspected jihadists killed more than 20 people in a string of attacks on villages in central Mali’s insurgency-hit Mopti region on Friday, two local sources said. – Reuters

The Americas

For months, Brazilian leaders have thrown almost everything they have in an effort to stop the country’s currency from a precipitous yearlong plunge. But nothing had worked, including hiking its benchmark interest rate above 12%. – Wall Street Journal

Guatemalan officials raided a compound on Friday belonging to Lev Tahor, an ultra-Orthodox Jewish sect with past links to child exploitation. Prosecutors said they had removed at least 160 children and teenagers from the site who they believed were the victims of human trafficking and other offenses. – New York Times

Venezuelan attorney general Tarek Saab said 200 more people arrested over election protests are to be freed, the latest in a series prisoner releases. – Reuters

El Salvador’s Congress will begin debating a bill on Saturday from President Nayib Bukele that would overturn a 2017 national ban on metals mining, the head of the president’s bloc in Congress said on Friday. – Reuters

Guyana’s government Saturday formally protested to Venezuela following the completion by Venezuela’s armed forces of a bridge built on a remote river island shared by both countries. Work on the bridge, which links Venezuela’s mainland to a military base, has caused a decades-old row over border lines in the Essequibo region to flare up again. – Associated Press

Venezuela’s attorney general said Friday an opposition politician met with prosecutors after leaving the Argentine diplomatic compound in the capital, Caracas, where he had sheltered for nine months to avoid arrest. – Associated Press

Carl Meacham writes: The challenge is to prevent such implosions from leading to further chaos or new forms of repression. For Maduro, Assad’s fate serves as a warning that no regime is immune to the tides of history. The world cannot afford to adapt to the suffering in Venezuela. The normalization of this crisis must end, and decisive action must replace the complacency of half-measures. Assad’s fall may foreshadow Maduro’s, serving as a reminder that entrenched regimes cannot escape the inevitable reckoning with their own fragility. – The Hill

North America

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s hold on power grew more tenuous Friday as the New Democratic Party, which has been propping up his minority government, said it was withdrawing its support. – Wall Street Journal

Gunshots struck a Jewish elementary school in Toronto on Friday for the third time in seven months, the latest in a series of antisemitic attacks that prompted officials to announce a new push to address Canada’s rising hate crimes. – New York Times

U.S President-elect Donald Trump said on Sunday he will launch a new anti-drug advertising campaign to show the physical impact of taking drugs like fentanyl and repeated his threat to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. – Reuters

Tens of thousands of Cubans marched in front of the U.S. embassy in Havana on Friday to protest longstanding sanctions in the waning weeks of the Biden administration, and as the island’s government worries about possibly tougher treatment under President-elect Donald Trump. – Reuters

Editorial: Deborah Lyons, Canada’s special envoy on preserving Holocaust remembrance and combating antisemitism, welcomed the forum, saying, “Jews are the number one target of reported hate crimes in Canada despite making up just over 1% of the population. Antisemitism shouldn’t be a partisan issue.” How Canada responds and deals with the scourge of antisemitism will have far-reaching implications for Jews in the rest of the Diaspora. If Jews aren’t safe in Canada, they won’t be safe anywhere. – Jerusalem Post

United States

Four years after the Biden administration made the race for chip manufacturing a top priority, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo says efforts to restrict China’s access to technology hasn’t held back the country’s progress, and federal funding for domestic innovation is what will keep the U.S. ahead of Beijing. – Wall Street Journal

President-elect Donald Trump is openly discussing provocative aspirations for U.S. territorial expansion as he prepares to return to the White House, warning about taking over the Panama Canal and wresting control of Greenland from Denmark. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. agents had to climb over piles of boxes to see inside the warehouse. They had learned about the secret building after finishing their tour of cabinet production facilities in Penang, Malaysia. – Wall Street Journal

Elon Musk loves China, and China loves Elon Musk. But as the idiosyncratic Tesla CEO takes on a high-profile role as “shadow president” in the incoming Trump administration, he could soon find himself performing a geopolitical juggling act. – Washington Post

President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday said he would nominate Mauricio Claver-Carone, who was fired from a previous position for allegedly having an affair with a subordinate, to serve as his special envoy to Latin America. – Reuters 

Most commercial drones sold in the United States, including those used by Hedrick, are made in China. They have become a target of U.S. lawmakers, who see the dominance of Chinese drones not only as an espionage threat but as a commercial threat because they make it nearly impossible for American manufacturers to compete. – Associated Press

US President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is reportedly preparing to withdraw the US from the World Health Organization (WHO) on the first day of his new administration, a move that experts warn could have dire consequences for global health, The Financial Times reported on Sunday. – Arutz Sheva

Editorial: One paradox of the nuclear age is that it has often been the most bellicose leaders who become the most committed — and who are the most effective — at securing arms control deals and shrinking global stockpiles. […] Donald Trump ran a campaign of peace through strength. Time will tell if he can deliver what he promised. But all Americans should rejoice if Mr. Trump leaves the world a safer place from nuclear weapons than it was when he took office for the second time. – New York Times

Cybersecurity

Bitcoin’s rally faces a risk that isn’t on the radar of most crypto investors: quantum computing. The nascent technology, which drew attention this month after Google claimed a breakthrough with its new Willow quantum-computing chip, could one day enable hackers to break the encryption that keeps bitcoin secure. – Wall Street Journal

A U.S. judge ruled on Friday in favor of Meta Platforms’ (META.O), WhatsApp in a lawsuit accusing Israel’s NSO Group of exploiting a bug in the messaging app to install spy software allowing unauthorized surveillance. – Reuters

Officials in the United States and Israel have denied reports their countries had signed off on the sale of Israeli spyware maker Paragon to Florida-based AE Industrial Partners. – Reuters

Albania on Saturday announced a one-year ban on TikTok, the popular short video app, following the killing of a teenager last month that raised fears over the influence of social media on children. – Reuters

Earlier this month, the United Kingdom’s National Crime Agency (NCA) unveiled the most complex investigation that staff can remember. Over nearly four years, Operation Destabilise involved almost everyone at the agency. – The Record

Suspected Russian hackers have launched one of the largest cyberattacks on Ukraine’s state services in recent months, according to a statement from Ukrainian officials late Thursday. – The Record

John Cobb writes: Whether the solution is an independent U.S. Cyber Force, consolidating current service-run headquarters and training organizations, or realigning responsibilities among the existing services, a real solution to the Cyber Mission Force’s problems should include rationalizing command structures, maturing cyber doctrine, and — most critically — investing in building cyber officers and senior non-commissioned officers with the experience, training, and education to accurately understand the cyber domain’s complex policy, technological, and operational problems. Until the void between cyber strategy and cyber tactics is filled, Department of Defense cyber operations will be a series of disjointed pinpricks unable to effectively impact adversaries or defend the nation. – War on the Rocks

Defense

President Biden’s first call to the Pentagon about the drones over New Jersey came on Dec. 12, nearly a month after the initial reports of mysterious flying objects in the night sky, U.S. officials said. – Wall Street Journal

This week, NASA finalized its strategy for sustaining a human presence in space. A document emphasized the importance of maintaining the ability for extended stays in orbit after the International Space Station is retired. – Fox News

The Navy and Air Force are now cleared to resume flying their grounded V-22 Ospreys after conducting inspections on a crucial gearbox in the tiltrotor aircraft, and some are already back in the air. – Defense News

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) sailed into San Diego Bay on Friday, wrapping a five-month deployment that included operations in the Pacific and striking Houthi targets in Yemen as part of the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian. – USNI News

Troop pay is no longer in jeopardy after Congress approved legislation early Saturday to keep the government funded through mid-March and prevent a holiday season government shutdown. – Military.com