Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

The FBI has concluded that Iran was behind online efforts earlier this month to incite lethal violence against the bureau’s director, a former top U.S. cyber expert and multiple state elections officials who have refuted claims of widespread voter fraud promoted by President Trump and his allies, federal and state officials said Tuesday. – Washington Post

An Israeli submarine has embarked for the Persian Gulf in possible preparation for any Iranian retaliation following the November assassination of Iran’s leading nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Israeli media reported. – Washington Post

Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran’s clerical establishment has used religious organizations to expand its clout abroad. Key among them is the Al-Mustafa International University, a network of religious seminaries based in the Shi’ite holy city of Qom that has branches in some 50 countries. – Radio Farda

Countries trying to keep alive the 2015 deal on Iran’s nuclear program agreed Monday to “positively address” the possibility of a U.S. return to the accord under the incoming Biden administration. Germany’s foreign minister urged Iran not to waste what he called a final window of opportunity. – Associated Press

Some of the Iran nuclear deal’s fiercest opponents are urging President-elect Joe Biden to let them have a say — and maybe even a seat at the negotiating table — in future talks with Tehran. – Politico

Two prominent Trump loyalists in the US Senate, Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, are reportedly pressing the president to submit the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate agreement to the chamber for ratification, in a last-minute attempt to scupper Democratic plans to take America back into the accords. – The Guardian

The incoming Biden administration may waste sanctions leverage the US has against Iran simply because of an emotional reaction to undo everything the Trump administration did, former national security adviser Yaakov Amidror said Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Bobby Ghosh writes: With hard-liners making the most of the early running, the campaign will likely feature even more anti-Western rhetoric than normal — hardly the most propitious climate for diplomacy. After a year in which the regime has failed on every other front, it will almost inevitably double down on its only other source of legitimacy: the visceral anti-Americanism that sustains Khamenei and his theocrats. For ordinary Iranians, another unhappy year awaits. – Bloomberg

Eli Lake writes: When Trump finally did escalate last January, the result was not a new war. The regime did fire on an Iraqi base and mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet. But eventually the pace of its attacks on U.S. forces and allies in the region diminished. Deterrence was re-established. That’s a valuable lesson for Biden as he prepares to take office. Iran’s supreme leader is now threatening revenge during a chaotic presidential transition. Biden should make it clear that the U.S. has both the capability and willingness to respond to anything the Iranians are planning. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: Iran might gamble a Biden administration would tolerate its greater malfeasance were Tehran to return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear accord. Ultimately, however, Pompeo’s post-administration security concerns are based on credible intelligence reporting and analysis. This security complement is justified and will be necessary for the foreseeable future. – Washington Examiner

Turkey

The European Court of Human Rights ruled on Tuesday that Turkey must immediately release prominent Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas, saying the justification for his four years in prison was a cover for limiting pluralism and debate. – Reuters

A Turkish court has convicted exiled journalist Can Dundar on espionage and terror-related charges for a news report. – Associated Press

Mehmet Efe Caman and Nikos Michailidis write: We believe that the EU can do more to help the real democratic forces of Turkey, who live either in the country or abroad, by creating specific funding, educational, diplomatic, and journalistic tools. This will be good for both the EU and for the citizens of Turkey, whose children deserve to live in a geography of peace and democracy. – Jerusalem Post

Iraq

Iran is upping the ante against American military presence in neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq—two of America’s so-called “forever wars” that President-Elect Joe Biden will be under pressure to finally end when he comes to power next month. – Newsweek 

President Donald Trump on Tuesday pardoned four former government contractors convicted in a 2007 massacre in Baghdad that left more than a dozen Iraqi civilians dead and caused an international uproar over the use of private security guards in a war zone. – Associated Press 

Katherine Lawlor and Colonel Ketti Davison write: Depriving them of that arena through the establishment of a strong, stable, and sovereign Iraqi state is therefore a prerequisite for stability in the Middle East and the preservation of US interests in the region. Stabilizing Iraq, and with it, the region, will allow the United States to pivot to other foreign policy priorities without incurring excess risk in the Middle East. – Institute for the Study of War

Gulf States

The Trump administration is considering a request to grant Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia immunity from a federal lawsuit that accuses him of trying to kill a former Saudi intelligence official living in Canada, legal documents related to the case show. – New York Times

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels shot down a Chinese-made, Saudi drone along the border with Saudi Arabia, a Houthi spokesman said. – Associated Press

In the context of his effort to improve Palestinian relations with the Arab countries, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas began a two-day visit to Qatar, where he met on Monday with the country’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. – Jerusalem Post

Robbie Gramer writes: In Washington, the conflict in Yemen has sparked some of the most intriguing political fights in the Trump administration, as a coalition of conservative Republican and progressive Democratic lawmakers banded together to try to halt U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition and reassert Congress’s war power authorities. – Foreign Policy 

Middle East & North Africa

Morocco has signaled to Israel in recent days that it does not intend to sign an agreement to normalize relations, as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain did with Israel a few months ago. – Haaretz

Tunisia is not interested in establishing diplomatic relations with Israel and its position will not be affected by any international changes, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Tunisian singer thought it was time to put this atmosphere of normalization into music. So, on December 13, Noamane Chaari uploaded a video of a song he had just recorded with an Israeli musician. […]Host of a broadcast of the famous radio station Mosaïque Fm, the young musician was the subject of death threats. – Arutz Sheva

Yigal Carmon and Alberto M. Fernandez write: The hope was that Middle East revolution would lead to reform and that reformed states would be better run and more attractive to their citizens, keeping them happier and at home. But war, revolution, and state collapse in the region have unleashed a wave of immigrants that threaten democracy in the West itself, as mass migration to Europe triggered an existential internal crisis about identity and politics. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

China

China’s do-everything app, WeChat, has become one of the most powerful tools in Beijing’s arsenal for monitoring the public, censoring speech and punishing people who voice discontent with the government. – Wall Street Journal

China and the European Commission appeared close to announcing a landmark agreement this week that would make it easier for their companies to invest in each other’s economies. Then it hit another snag: A tweet by a top aide to Joseph R. Biden Jr. signaled that the president-elect was not happy about the deal. – New York Times

The Hong Kong National Security Law, introduced by China on June 30, 2020, grants law enforcement sweeping powers to curb the four offenses of “secession, subversion, terrorist activities and collusion with foreign countries or elements.” – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Prominent U.S. lawmakers warned a Pacific ally that China risked undermining the security of a sensitive undersea cable project if a cut-price, state-backed bid wins a tender process overseen by development agencies, a letter reviewed by Reuters shows. – Reuters

Germany’s U.N. envoy, during his last scheduled U.N. Security Council meeting, appealed to China to free two detained Canadians for Christmas, prompting China’s deputy U.N. envoy to respond: “Out of the bottom of my heart: Good riddance.” – Reuters

The Department of Homeland Security is set to issue an advisory to U.S. businesses, warning them of data security risks associated with using communications equipment and services from China-linked companies. – Axios

Two key Republican lawmakers on Tuesday urged the Trump administration to strengthen new rules adopted Friday aimed at preventing China’s biggest chipmaker SMIC from getting access to advanced U.S. technology. – Reuters

The Trump administration on Monday published a list of Chinese and Russian companies with alleged military ties that restrict them from buying a wide range of U.S. goods and technology. – Reuters

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government rejected a plan by China’s Shandong Gold Mining Co. to acquire a gold miner that operates in the Canadian Arctic, potentially inflaming a diplomatic feud. – Bloomberg

The incoming administration of Joe Biden has voiced its concern about EU-China negotiations over a business investment agreement amid unease that it will not be tough enough on prohibiting forced labour in China. – Financial Times

Guy Taylor writes: Although he credited the Trump administration with engineering a clear-eyed shift in U.S. policy toward China even before COVID-19 hit, Mr. May said the U.S. establishment has been dangerously slow to let go of false and long-held beliefs that China will liberalize its political system and moderate its behavior on the world stage as its wealth grew through ties to America and the U.S.-backed global economic order. – Washington Times 

Zack Dorfman writes: And as U.S. officials struggled to try and grasp what was happening on the other side of the Pacific, China was doubling down on a hacking spree that would see unprecedented amounts of data stolen and fed into an increasingly sophisticated intelligence apparatus. – Foreign Policy

South Asia

Votes were counted on Tuesday in the first local elections in Kashmir since the Indian government waged a harsh political and security crackdown in the restive region last year. Officials hailed a solid turnout as a sign that democracy has been restored, but little in Kashmir feels normal. – New York Times

Pakistani security forces raided a militant separatist hideout in a remote town in southwestern Baluchistan province Tuesday, triggering a shootout in which 10 suspects were killed, the military said. – Associated Press

As tension between India and China has increased in recent months, the US military has helped India keep an eye on Chinese forces, senior US military commanders said in November. – Business Insider

Russia

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief, Russia in Global Affairs magazine and chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy wrote an article for Kommersant titled “History’s Hunger” in which he argues that the pandemic had smashed the concept that globalization was irreversible. – Middle East Media Research Institute

President Vladimir Putin signed laws on Tuesday granting former Russian presidents expanded immunity from prosecution and allowing them to become senators for life in the upper house of parliament once they leave the Kremlin. – Reuters

The Kremlin on Tuesday mocked opposition politician Alexei Navalny and tried to call his sanity into question, a day after he said he had tricked a Russian secret agent into disclosing lurid details of a botched plot to kill him. – Reuters

Russia’s lower house of parliament voted on Wednesday to pass legislation allowing authorities to block or restrict websites like YouTube if they “discriminate” against Russian media on their sites. – Reuters

Russia said on Tuesday it had expanded its list of European Union officials barred from the country in response to what it described as “unacceptable” sanctions against Moscow over the poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. – Reuters

Russia expects nothing good in relations with a “deeply hostile” U.S. under the incoming administration of Joe Biden and has no plans to make unilateral concessions to improve ties, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said. – Bloomberg

Moscow police briefly detained Lyubov Sobol, a lawyer for Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, after she tried to meet an agent who appears to have implicated the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the poisoning of the 44-year-old Kremlin critic. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

A Russian documentary filmmaker was detained briefly by police after publicly expressing support for opposition politician Aleksei Navalny, who says the release of a phone conversation with a Russian agent shows how the country’s Federal Security Service (FSB) poisoned the Kremlin critic with a Novichok nerve agent. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Editorial: It is easy to imagine Vladimir Putin gloating amid the revelations that Russia’s foreign intelligence service penetrated multiple U.S. agencies and many private companies in what some are calling the most successful hack of U.S. targets in history. Moscow’s cyberspies have once again demonstrated an extraordinary capacity to exploit the vulnerabilities of an open society wedded to the Internet, just as they did during the 2016 presidential election. – Washington Post

 Mark Episkopos writes: Such truculent exchanges offer a reminder of the pattern that has developed around these episodes. One side offers opaque claims and allegations; the other, the Russian government, responds with obfuscatory language and outright prevarications. The result is that relations between Russia and the West also end up being further poisoned—and the antidote to mounting tensions seems further away than ever. – The National Interest

Africa

Ismail Dicky says he is afraid of political tensions and violence ahead of Sunday’s general election in Central African Republic (CAR), a sentiment that reflects the anxious mood of a country desperate for an end to years of bloodshed. – Reuters

Police said they had detained a prominent Ugandan human rights lawyer and government critic over money laundering allegations, in what his organisation said was part of a crackdown on dissent ahead of elections next month. – Reuters

Russia has sent an extra 300 military instructors to the Central African Republic at the request of the country’s leadership to help counter a surge in violence by rebel groups ahead of Sunday’s election, Russia’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United Nations is striving to get a team on the ground to investigate alleged human rights violations including a mass killing in Ethiopia’s Tigray, described by the U.N. rights chief as one of many “appalling” human rights abuses that could amount to war crimes. – Reuters

Russian-linked trolls are waging disinformation warfare in multiple African nations, seeking to discredit the West and boost pro-Russia candidates in important elections, an investigation by The Daily Beast can reveal. – The Daily Beast 

The U.S. has amassed naval forces with about 2,500 Marines aboard off the coast of Somalia to cover the withdrawal of the estimated 800 U.S. troops from the Horn of Africa country, which has been hit by terror attacks from the al-Shabaab insurgent group, U.S. Africa Command said Tuesday. – Military.com

Joshua Meservey writes: Last week, a report emerged that hackers, probably from China, had been filching security camera footage from inside the African Union headquarters building in Ethiopia. Several years ago, AU technicians discovered that the building’s Huawei-provided servers were daily exporting their data to Shanghai, and that the walls of the Chinese-built headquarters were peppered with listening devices. – The National Interest

United States

In a message intended to prevent a rush to the southwestern border, the incoming Biden administration announced on Tuesday that it would not immediately reverse restrictions imposed by President Trump that have effectively halted asylum and left thousands of migrants stranded outside the United States. – New York Times

Donald Trump cannot denounce Russia’s alleged cyber attack on US government agencies because “he realises that Russia has helped him” in the past, a former CIA director has claimed. – Independent

Yoichi Funabashi writes: Finally, there is one caveat: the new administration should avoid catching itself in the trap of “Anything But Trump.” This is particularly important with regard to the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP). FOIP’s vision must rather be further explored and strengthened, even though it emerged during the Trump administration, as it is now increasingly supported by like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. – The National Interest

Defense

Despite the fact that the Tu-95 “Bear” is one of the oldest designs in active service with the Russian Air Force, much like the American B-52 Stratofortress, it shows no signs of landing into retirement any time soon. This week the Russia’s strategic nuclear forces received the latest version of heavily upgraded bombers. – The National Interest

The Army‘s groundbreaking long-range cannon hit a target 43 miles away over the weekend, military officials said, marking another successful test of an artillery system that the Pentagon says will give the U.S. a major battlefield advantage over foes such as China and Russia. – Washington Times

The U.S. Navy’s plan to deliver the first vessel in its $128 billion next-generation submarine program on time is at risk by a dependence on inexperienced contractors with spotty quality control track records, according to a congressional watchdog. – Bloomberg

President Trump is expected to veto the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) Wednesday, sources tell Fox News, forcing the House and Senate to reconvene immediately following Christmas. – Fox News