Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Nearly a year after the U.S. airstrike that killed a revered Iranian military leader, a senior American general said that Tehran is still considering retaliatory steps, raising the possibility of renewed confrontation with Iran in the Trump administration’s final days. – Washington Post

A U.S. guided-missile submarine passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the Navy said Monday, in a rare disclosure of the movements of one of the United States’s nuclear-powered submarines.[…] Monday’s announcement comes as U.S. officials are on alert for heightened tensions in the Middle East surrounding the upcoming anniversary of the U.S. killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. – The Hill

European powers are backing president-elect Joe Biden’s suggestion that the US returns to a landmark nuclear deal with Iran in its existing form and leave their more contentious push to expand the accord to curb Tehran’s military and regional policies until later. – Financial Times

An IDF Navy submarine crossed the Suez Canal last week as a direct message to Iran, Kan News reported Monday evening. Arab intelligence officials reportedly confirmed to Kan News that the Israeli submarine crossed the canal toward Iran visibly above water, in an act meant as a message to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei. – Jerusalem Post

Army Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi warned the Iranians on Monday that any action against Israel would prompt a harsh response, following threats from Tehran in the wake of the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in late November, a killing that Iran has blamed on Israel. – Haaretz

Tom Rogan writes: Still, what’s really informing this escalated U.S. military activity isn’t so much the traditional Iranian antics such as the rocket strike on Sunday. It’s the intelligence reporting that suggests Iran wants to give the Trump administration a bloody nose before it leaves office. Iran’s desire for action is informed both by the crippling sanctions the Trump administration has imposed on it but also by action such as the January 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani. – Washington Examiner

Eric R. Mandel writes: With Iranian elections scheduled for 2021, the experts need to end the false distinction between Iranian good guys and bad guys, moderates vs. hardliners. President Hassan Rouhani was declared a moderate by the Obama administration and media, but in reality, he is the most moderate extremist in the Iranian leadership, as he is a true believer in the revolution’s goals. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

Attorney General William P. Barr on Monday announced criminal charges against a former Libyan intelligence operative accused of building the explosive device that was used in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103, one of the deadliest terrorist attacks in United States history, stemming partly to a confession that he gave nearly a decade ago while imprisoned in Libya. – New York Times

The United Arab Emirates said there is support for mending the standoff with Qatar, but the media there is “undermining” that effort. – Bloomberg

US lawmakers on Monday backed legislation granting Sudan legal immunity for past militant attacks, a final step in a historic deal removing Khartoum from Washington’s blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism. – Agence France-Presse

Hundreds of angry Iraqis protested Monday in several cities against a currency devaluation that has slashed their purchasing power amid a pandemic-fuelled economic crisis. – Agence France-Presse

I. William Zartman writes: Like all futures, the impact of the quid pro quo is not clearly indicated. While the “war” has not exploded, Algeria may be heating up relations with Morocco to gather domestic support, although the issue is of greater appeal to the army than to the Algerian people.[…] The Biden administration could undo the executive order with its own executive order, adding to post-Trump policy uncertainty, and it may not want to make a fight in Congress over this one. In the end, the issue, having taken a major step toward normalization, may simply settle down again since it holds little importance for anyone but Morocco, Algeria, and the local Sahrawi people. – Middle East Institute

Asia

The Hong Kong democracy activist Nathan Law said on Monday that he had applied for political asylum in Britain, a petition that will likely inflame tensions with China if granted. – New York Times

A roadside bomb tore through a vehicle in the Afghan capital of Kabul Tuesday, killing at least five people, four of them doctors, police said. – Associated Press

The political head of Tibetans in exile welcomed on Tuesday the passing of legislation by the U.S. Congress that reaffirms the rights of Tibetans to choose a successor to their spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama. – Reuters

The Indian government on Tuesday appealed to farmers to hold further talks to break a nearly month-long deadlock over their demand for the repeal of agricultural reform laws, but farmers’ leaders declined to relent unless these laws are withdrawn. – Reuters

Indonesia could unlock billions of dollars in additional U.S. financing if it joins President Donald Trump’s push for Muslim countries to establish relations with Israel, according to a U.S. official. – Bloomberg

South Korea said on Tuesday it had scrambled fighter jets in response to an intrusion into South Korea’s air defence identification zone by 19 Russian and Chinese military aircraft. – Reuters

Europe

A white supremacist who live-streamed his efforts to blast his way into a synagogue in Germany last year on the holiest day on the Jewish calendar, failing to cause widespread bloodshed only because he could not breach a heavy wooden door, was sentenced on Monday to life in prison. – New York Times

Britain and the EU moved closer to a compromise on fisheries on Monday, night as MPs were told to prepare to vote on a potential trade deal on Wednesday next week. – Telegraph

Turkey is selling four locally made stealth corvettes to its littoral Black Sea neighbor Ukraine as part of a larger framework agreement to enhance bilateral cooperation in defense procurement. – Defense News

Mehmet Efe Caman and Nikos Michailidis write: We believe that the EU can do more to help the real democratic forces of Turkey, who live either in the country or abroad, by creating specific funding, educational, diplomatic, and journalistic tools. This will be good for both the EU and for the citizens of Turkey, whose children deserve to live in a geography of peace and democracy. – Jerusalem Post

Cybersecurity

Tech giants including Microsoft and Google on Monday joined Facebook’s legal battle against hacking company NSO, filing an amicus brief in federal court that warned that the Israeli firm’s tools were “powerful, and dangerous.” – Reuters

Systems at the U.S. Treasury Department used by senior officials were accessed by hackers in a widespread cyberattack on federal agencies, according to Senator Ron Wyden. – Bloomberg

Christopher Krebs, the former top cybersecurity official in the U.S., says Russia is to blame for a massive breach that’s affected the State Department, the Pentagon, the Treasury Department, the Department of Homeland Security and other departments and agencies. – NPR

With limited resources and increasing threats, experts at U.S. Cyber Command cannot conduct operations for everyone and protect everything. As a result, the Marine Corps is spreading expertise and resources from high-end cyber warriors to the fleet as it builds prowess in the domain, with new cyber-focused careers for Marines and first-time tactical cyber forces. – C4ISRNET