Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Preparations for war were almost complete. Scores of trained agents working for Israel were on the ground in Iran, armed with sophisticated new weapons. Israeli air force pilots were on standby for orders to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, ballistic missile launchers and air defenses. – Washington Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Wednesday said that he had approved the “largest gas deal” in the country’s history, granting an export permit for a $37 billion agreement allowing Chevron and other energy companies to significantly expand gas deliveries to neighboring Egypt. – New York Times

Israeli security officials are investigating how the high-profile phone contacts, photos and messages belonging to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett leaked online. – Bloomberg

Israel and Greece are working on a fast response mechanism with 2,500 soldiers to act as a counter to the growth of Turkey’s forces, Greek newspaper TA NEA reported on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

After successfully dismantling Hamas infrastructure, killing terrorists, and destroying weapons caches, the IDF’s 2nd Brigade has completed its mission and will be rotating out of the Gaza Strip to be replaced by the 16th Brigade, the military announced on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

Israeli officials are examining intelligence from recent days that suggests an Iranian connection to the murder of Prof. Nuno Loureiro, a senior nuclear scientist at MIT, who was shot dead in his home in Brookline, Massachusetts, on Monday evening. – Jerusalem Post

The US is telling interlocutors that it has secured commitments from Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Italy and Germany to have their leaders join US President Donald Trump on the Board of Peace that will oversee the postwar management of Gaza, four officials familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

Pinchas Goldschmidt writes: Now, more than ever, Russia’s Jews should heed the call to leave. Israel offers not just refuge but a homeland where Jewish life is sovereign, not contingent on geopolitical whims. The miracle of public hannukiot in Moscow was inspiring, but miracles are fleeting in exile. As Hanukkah teaches, light triumphs over darkness – but sometimes, the wisest act is to carry the flame to a place where it burns freely. – Jerusalem Post

Sharon Levy writes: When human rights organizations and newsrooms decide whose suffering deserves recognition — and when that recognition is granted only if it is politically convenient — they do more than mishandle a single report. They corrode public trust, hollow out the principles they claim to defend, and turn the language of human rights into a tool of selective erasure. – Algemeiner

Russia and Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow would achieve its goals in Ukraine either through diplomacy or on the battlefield, days after U.S. and European officials met with Ukraine’s leadership to try to hammer out a deal to end nearly four years of war. – Wall Street Journal

Russia launched a “massive” drone attack on Ukraine’s central Cherkasy region, injuring six people and triggering a blackout in part of Cherkasy city, the local governor said on Thursday. – Reuters

European Union leaders will try to agree on how to lend billions of euros of desperately needed cash to Ukraine in a meeting on Thursday that is seen as a critical test of the group’s strength in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump calling them weak. – Reuters

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Ukraine’s allies on Wednesday to secure support for Kyiv and show Russia that continuing its war is “pointless,” ahead of a crucial European Union summit on Moscow’s frozen assets. – Reuters

President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday Russia would take more land in Ukraine by force if Kyiv and European politicians whom he cast as “young pigs” did not engage over U.S. proposals for a peace settlement. – Reuters

Editorial: The EU Observer reports that Euroclear executives have received threats of violence from a possible Russian intermediary. Suspicious drones have recently loitered near Belgian airports, military bases, weapons factories, a nuclear power plant and critical infrastructure—which looks like Russian intimidation. When Vladimir Putin perceives weakness, he exploits it, so moving on Russian assets is one way to strengthen European deterrence. The cleanest solution would be to ditch the complicated work-around and directly confiscate the money. Yet if this scheme is the best that Europe can muster, it’s better than letting Mr. Putin literally get away with murder and reclaim Russia’s assets as if nothing happened. – Wall Street Journal

David Axe writes: Maybe an uptick in FP-1/2 and An-196 production, and an increase in the pace of attacks, will add mass and frequency to Ukrainian strikes and result in more lasting damage that, for example, makes generous enlistment bonuses less affordable to Moscow — and, as a consequence, depresses the steady manpower mobilization that has been Russia’s biggest military advantage over manpower-starved Ukraine. Or maybe Russia will largely shrug off Ukrainian deep strikes in 2026 the way it shrugged them off in 2025 and 2024. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Korean Peninsula

Shares of LG Energy Solution, dropped as much as 7.6% in morning trade on Thursday after the company announced a day earlier that Ford Motor (F.N), had cancelled an electric vehicle (EV) battery supply deal. – Reuters

The billionaire founder of South Korea’s Coupang (CPNG.N), failed to appear before a parliamentary hearing in Seoul on Wednesday over the e-commerce group’s recent data breach, prompting a decision to file a legal complaint over his absence. – Reuters

South Korea’s Constitutional Court on Thursday formally removed the country’s impeached police chief for deploying hundreds of officers to support ousted former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s brief imposition of martial law in December 2024. – Associated Press

South Asia

India has reformed its business visa regime to ease movement of foreign engineers and technicians, the government said in a statement, which will be a boost local firms leaning on Chinese professionals for manufacturing services. – Reuters

India summoned Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to New Delhi to convey its strong concerns on Wednesday over what it described as a deteriorating security situation in Bangladesh, particularly threats targeting the Indian Mission in Dhaka. – Reuters

India’s parliament on Wednesday approved a bill to raise foreign direct investment in the insurance sector to 100% from 74%, a move that will help insure more people in the world’s most populous country. – Reuters

Recent remarks about pollution from two Indian officials have increased frustration among residents who say policymakers are unwilling to acknowledge the severity of India’s air quality crisis. – Associated Press

India has accelerated a push to finalize several free trade agreements over the next few months to offset the impact of steep U.S. import tariffs and widen export destinations during growing global trade uncertainties. – Associated Press

Michael Rubin writes: Terror supporters and Islamists might have destroyed democracy and security in both countries, but the United Nations is under no obligation to support their follies or reward their most favoured personnel. Unjustly, India is not a permanent member of the UN Security Council, but as the world’s most populous nation, its fourth-largest economy, and a victim of Islamist terrorism, India’s voice is one that Guterres ignores at his peril. It is time Indian officials use it more forcefully. – Firstpost

Sumit Ganguly writes: India will also need to fashion a diplomatic strategy that addresses its neighbors’ fears, both real and imagined—and it will need to do so with alacrity. For some time, China has sought to expand its footprint in South Asia at India’s expense, and by some measure, it has already succeeded. A new initiative with Bangladesh and Pakistan—and the prospect of bringing more states on board—could enable Beijing to achieve its goal. – Foreign Policy

Europe

KNDS plans to list its shares in Paris and Frankfurt next year, seeking to broaden its access to capital markets as the defense industry continues to draw large-scale investments. – Wall Street Journal

Two of Britain’s largest police forces announced that they would arrest protesters for using the phrase “globalize the intifada,” saying in a joint statement that a “more assertive” approach was needed after the terrorist attack in Australia and a previous assault on a synagogue in England. – New York Times

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in an interview that relations with the United States could improve and that a starting point could be U.S. acknowledgment that a Western campaign to overturn his 2020 re-election had failed. – Reuters

Poland has decided to start producing anti‑personnel mines for the first time since the Cold War and plans to deploy them along its eastern border and may export them to Ukraine, the deputy defence minister told Reuters. – Reuters

The U.S. Trade Representative on Wednesday announced the implementation of tariff-related elements in a trade agreement framework reached with Switzerland and Liechtenstein in November. – Reuters

Calls are growing for the European Union to approve a massive loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets without the support of Belgium, where nearly all the assets are located. – Bloomberg

Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani praised her US counterpart Donald Trump for supporting peace in the Western Balkans and wider region of Europe. – Bloomberg

German lawmakers approved a record number of arms contracts during a closed-door meeting on Wednesday, kicking off a defense splurge of roughly €50 billion ($59 billion) for armored vehicles, air-defense missiles and satellites. – Bloomberg

Poland will spend much of the funds from the European Union’s military loan program on its own rearmament rather than common purchases with allies, as Warsaw bolsters its defenses to deter Russian aggression. – Bloomberg

Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer writes: The path will be politically contentious. A frank discussion on national interests will trigger tensions, and a more capable Europe will sometimes disagree with Washington. That is normal in a relationship between mature powers. A successful rebalancing will allow the U.S. to maintain focus on global priorities without fearing a security vacuum in Europe. It will give Europeans real agency over their own defense. And it will advance trans-Atlantic security despite political divides. – Wall Street Journal

The Americas

Bolivia is sitting on a metal the world can’t get enough of. Now, after two decades of Socialist rule, its new pro-U.S. government is betting that lithium—and Washington—can help pull the country out of an economic tailspin. – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian lawmakers have approved legislation that could reduce the time former president Jair Bolsonaro will spend in prison for attempting a military coup after he lost the 2022 election. If the legislation, approved by Brazil’s Federal Senate on Wednesday, survives an expected presidential veto, Bolsonaro, 70, could be transferred from prison to house arrest as early as 2028. – Washington Post

The Trump administration is adding steadily to its already formidable military buildup in the Caribbean, escalating a multifront pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro that has included strikes on more than 20 alleged drugs boats and the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker. The prospect of potential strikes on Venezuelan territory continues to loom. – Washington Post

Venezuela on Wednesday requested that the United Nations Security Council meet to discuss “ongoing U.S. aggression” against the country, according to a letter to the 15-member body seen by Reuters. – Reuters

Oil prices rose on Thursday following reports that the U.S. was preparing new sanctions on Russian oil if Moscow does not agree to a Ukraine peace deal, as market participants assessed the supply risks posed by a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers. – Reuters

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado is doing well, a spokesperson for the Venezuelan opposition leader said on Wednesday, despite sustaining an injury to her back during her recent flight from Venezuela. – Reuters

The presidents of Latin America’s two largest countries urged restraint on Wednesday in the face of escalating actions from the United States toward regional neighbor Venezuela. – Reuters

China opposed what it said was “unilateral bullying” after Washington ordered a blockade of tankers entering and leaving oil-rich Venezuela, but did not say exactly how it would come to the South American country’s aid or offer any refuge for its embattled leader. – Reuters

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for restraint and the immediate de-escalation of tensions between the United States and Venezuela, his spokesperson said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Chinese low Earth orbit satellite company SpaceSail will start providing internet access to remote areas in Brazil in the first half of 2026, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s chief of staff, Rui Costa, said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Germany has taken note of U.S. President Donald Trump’s order to blockade sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela and warned against any steps that would jeopardize peace and security in the region, said a foreign ministry spokesperson. – Reuters

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Wednesday that if the trade agreement between the European Union and the South American trade bloc Mercosur is not finalized this month, Brazil will no longer sign off on the deal. – Reuters

Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz declared an economic emergency late Wednesday night and issued an array of dramatic steps, including scrapping fuel subsidies and loosening the country’s exchange rate regime. – Bloomberg

The leaders of two small Caribbean countries say they were blindsided by a White House decision to issue travel restrictions over their so-called “golden passport” programs — even as the US works to create its own pay-for-residency initiative. – Bloomberg

Editorial: US critics of the blockade, like Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), have been cheerleading for the Maduro regime for years because they see it as a leader of global resistance against American hegemony; they even shoehorn their obsession with Palestine into the case, absurdly claiming that Israel is pushing Trump to go to war. But a firm hand with Venezuela is highly indicated as Maduro ramps up his repression: All of North America and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Venezuela, and most of South America bars Maduro and his henchmen from entry. It’s high time the US put its navy where its mouth is: Starving Maduro of oil exports is the right move. – New York Post

Keith Johnson writes: Whether the announced blockade materializes or not—and for a blockade to be legal, the blockading force must have the ability to physically bar shipping—Venezuela’s oil exports, the lifeblood of its economy, are already suffering. Even though only a fraction of Venezuela’s oil exports are carried on so-called “shadow tankers” subject to the notional blockade, nobody wants to cross bows with a U.S. aircraft carrier group; multiple inbound tankers have turned around mid-ocean in recent days. The problem, from Venezuela’s point of view, is that oil sales fund everything, including food. There is the prospect, according to some economists, of unprecedented famine if the U.S. blockade strangles Venezuela’s earnings. – Foreign Policy

United States

A federal appeals court on Wednesday allowed President Trump to continue deploying National Guard units on the streets of the capital city at least temporarily, rejecting the District of Columbia’s argument that the military mission is unlawful without assent from Washington’s elected mayor. – Wall Street Journal

Federal Communications Commission Chair Brendan Carr told a Senate oversight hearing Wednesday that the FCC isn’t an independent agency, contradicting a description that, until then, had been featured on the commission’s website. – Wall Street Journal

Dan Bongino said Wednesday that he was stepping down as deputy director at the FBI, after a nine-month tenure in which he clashed with both Justice Department leadership and the bureau’s workforce. – Wall Street Journal 

At least two U.S. senators have put holds on the nomination of Adm. Kevin Lunday to lead the U.S. Coast Guard, citing concerns with a new workplace harassment policy that downgrades the definition of swastikas and nooses from hate symbols to “potentially divisive.” – Washington Post

The U.S.Senate on Wednesday passed Congress’s $900 billion defense policy bill, advancing a bipartisan effort to force the Pentagon to disclose footage of a controversial military strike on an alleged drug smuggling boat near Venezuela. The legislation advanced by a vote of 77 to 20. It cleared the House last week, and President Donald Trump is expected to sign it into law. – Washington Post

Editorial: If this was ever a matter of left or right, it is no longer: The flood has spilled its banks and now threatens to inundate the nation in an acid bath of hate. This is exactly what happened in Nazi Germany and every other society around the world where Jews were isolated, vilified and then attacked. This is what “never again” means. We — all New Yorkers, all Americans of good will — need to get a grip on this situation before it gets a grip on us. – New York Post

Mark Goldfeder writes: Every day this position remains unfilled is another day the world’s worst persecutors operate without being restrained by coordinated, high-level American pressure. Each delay sends a message — not only to victims, but to their persecutors — that religious freedom is negotiable. But it isn’t. Congress created this office because it recognized that when the U.S. speaks clearly and forcefully about religious freedom, lives are saved. Leaving it vacant for political reasons undermines that judgment. The Senate should stop playing politics with that reality and confirm Walker now. – The Hill

Defense

The Senate approved a sweeping defense-policy package despite alarm over a provision that rolls back safety measures put in place following the fatal midair collision in January between a military helicopter and passenger plane at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump on Wednesday defended his handling of the economy during a rare prime-time speech and announced a $1,776 “warrior dividend” check for active-duty servicemembers that he said would be paid for with tariff revenue. – Wall Street Journal

The Army said it’s on track to field the first US hypersonic weapon — a ground-launched missile called the Dark Eagle — by the end of the month, but the system still hasn’t proven it would be effective in combat, according to the Pentagon’s test office. – Bloomberg

Billionaire astronaut Jared Isaacman, an ally of billionaire SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, will be the next NASA administrator. The Senate confirmed Isaacman’s nomination on Wednesday in a 67-30 vote, giving the space agency a permanent boss after months of uncertainty and political drama. – Business Insider

General Dynamics NASSCO delivered a fleet replenishment oiler to the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, the service announced. USNS Lucy Stone (T-AO-209) recently finished sea trials and is now in the Navy’s possession, according to a service news release. – USNI News