Fdd's overnight brief

December 18, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister visited the Syrian buffer zone that Israeli troops seized after the fall of the Assad regime and said they would continue to hold it indefinitely. – Wall Street Journal

An agreement to halt the 14-month-old war in Gaza and free hostages held in the Palestinian enclave could be signed in the coming days with talks in Cairo making progress, sources briefed on the meeting said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Palestinian families sued the U.S. State Department on Tuesday over Washington’s support for Israel’s military amid its war in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis, a court filing showed. – Reuters

Palestinian Authority security forces have battled Islamist fighters in Jenin for days, as they wrestle to exert control of one of the historic centres of militancy in the West Bank ahead of a likely shakeout in Palestinian politics after the Gaza war. – Reuters

Israeli lawmakers narrowly approved the country’s 2025 state budget in an initial vote despite a rebellion by one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition partners demanding he fire Israel’s attorney general. – Reuters

The Israeli military said on Tuesday that two soldiers were killed in the south of the Gaza Strip. Major Moshiko Maxim Rozenwald, 35, a reservist and combat engineer, and another unnamed soldier were killed in an “incident,” the military said in a statement without providing further details. – Agence France-Presse

Shots were fired at an Israeli bus carrying hassidic Jews who were on their way to Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus, in the West Bank, Israeli media reported on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Released Hamas hostages shared their experiences of time in captivity and pleaded for the return of those still held in Gaza in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Israel and Turkey have entered into a diplomatic spat, with both sides accusing the other of occupying Syria in statements made on Monday and Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas called on “all movements, factions, tribal gatherings, and human rights organizations to mobilize massively” to repel the ongoing operation carried out by PA security forces in Jenin, in an official statement on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

The Israel Defense Forces on Tuesday detailed its plans to form a new light infantry division based on volunteer reservists for patrol and routine security, including during periods of escalation across the country. – Times of Israel

Editorial: In his memory, we echo Maurice Cohen’s call on both the Irish and Israeli governments “to seek pathways to rebuild trust and to ensure that avenues for diplomatic engagement remain open. Ireland has the potential to play a constructive role on the global stage, and it is our hope that this potential will be directed toward fostering understanding and reconciliation.” – Jerusalem Post

Gil Murciano writes: The past two years have also taught us an important lesson about the failure of Israel’s “villa in the jungle” approach – the danger of burying one’s head in the sand and ignoring regional developments, leaving the initiative in the hands of meaningful and hostile others. […] Israel must seize the current opportunity to foster a stable and non-hostile relationship with its strategic neighbor to the north. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

A top U.N. official on Tuesday pushed world powers and Iran to urgently work to restore a 2015 deal that lifted sanctions on Tehran in return for restrictions on its nuclear program, warning that its “success or failure matters to all of us.” – Reuters

An Israeli resident of Jerusalem has been arrested on suspicion of being in contact with Iranian intelligence agents as part of a plot to carry out an attack in Israel in return for payment, Israeli security forces said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have tightened their grip on the country’s oil industry and control up to half the exports that generate most of Tehran’s revenue and fund its proxies across the Middle East, according to Western officials, security sources and Iranian insiders. – Reuters

Iran’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that its embassy in Syria would reopen once the “necessary conditions” are met, after the diplomatic mission was vandalized following the ouster of Tehran ally Bashar al-Assad. – Agence France-Presse

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote that Israel was “gravely mistaken” about developments in Syria in a Tuesday message posted to his Hebrew language X/Twitter account. – Jerusalem Post

Arash Azizi writes: Suppose that, following the Axis’s collapse, the region became one of stable, cohesive nation-states that pursued economic development rather than war. The democratic dreams that fueled the 2011 Arab Spring would still remain distant—but Iran’s revolutionary project for the region would at last come to a definitive end. – The Atlantic

Russia & Ukraine

The Russian authorities said on Wednesday that they had detained a suspect in the killing of a senior military official, Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, in Moscow on the previous day. – New York Times

Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukrainian forces battling to hold an enclave in Russia’s Kursk region and increased pressure in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, Ukraine’s top army commander said on Tuesday. – Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming Ukraine envoy will travel to Kyiv and several other European capitals in early January as the next administration tries to bring a swift end to the Russia-Ukraine war, according to two sources with knowledge of the trip’s planning. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appealed to allies on Tuesday to ensure the so-called shadow fleet of vessels used by Russia to circumvent sanctions no longer operated in the European waters. – Reuters

Russian prosecutors have demanded prison terms of nearly six years each for three lawyers who represented Alexei Navalny, an ally of the late opposition leader said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russia’s parliament passed a law on Tuesday that would allow courts to suspend bans on groups designated by Moscow as terrorist organisations – paving the way for it to normalise ties with the Afghan Taliban and potentially with the new leadership of Syria. – Reuters

Russian lawmakers on Tuesday approved a bill that broadened the definition of high treason, part of authorities’ efforts to tighten control as the fighting in Ukraine is nearing the three-year mark. – Associated Press

Ukraine will ease its ban on dual citizenship in an attempt to tackle a demographic crisis sparked by Russia’s full-scale invasion. – Bloomberg

Amy Knight writes: If Russia continues to score military victories in Ukraine, Mr. Putin will probably redeem himself with his domestic critics. But the collapse of Mr. Assad’s seemingly all-powerful regime must unnerve the Russian president, especially given the serious challenge to his rule from Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny in June 2023. […] Whatever its repercussions in Russia, Mr. Assad’s fall is a reminder of the fragility of dictatorships, including that of Vladimir Putin. – Wall Street Journal

Anna Borshchevskaya writes: The U.S. can actively work to diminish Russia’s influence by aligning with European and Arab capitals to push for a Western-led diplomatic process on Syria. […] It also has to stay committed to Ukraine and ensure that any ceasefire gives Ukraine firm security guarantees to keep Ukraine stable. No darkness lasts forever. Assad’s fall shows that. And Russia can still lose. But make no mistake. The U.S. can only impact the future of the Middle East by staying engaged. –19FortyFive

Syria

In the week since President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria fell in a shocking conclusion to the country’s 13-year civil war, Syrians have celebrated the end of a regime that subjected them to crippling poverty and human rights abuses. – New York Times

The leader of the rebel coalition that took power in Syria this month said that all armed opposition groups in the country would be dissolved, Syrian state media reported on Tuesday, as the new government worked to build a functioning state. – New York Times

Concrete movement on an inclusive political transition in Syria will be key in ensuring the country gets the economic support it needs, United Nations special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen told the Security Council on Tuesday. – Reuters

Syrian caretaker Prime Minister Mohammad al-Bashir told Al Jazeera TV on Tuesday that Syria has very low foreign currency reserves. – Reuters

Bashar Assad’s overthrow has cleared the way for US strikes against the Daesh group in areas previously shielded by Syrian and Russian air defenses — but the terrorists may also try to exploit the vacuum left by his fall. – Agence France-Presse

The leader of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces on Tuesday proposed a “demilitarised zone” in the northern town of Kobani as fighting with Turkish-backed groups grips northern Syria. – Agence France-Presse

Matthew Levitt writes: Some observers argue that unwinding these sanctions is key to giving Syria’s post-Assad leadership a chance to build a different kind of government and country. And no one could reasonably oppose some near-term waivers and similar measures to allow for humanitarian aid. […] But the nascent HTS-led government has much to prove to the country’s citizenry, to Syria’s neighbors, and to the international community. – Washington Institute

Rawan Shaif writes: To act now is to affirm that no perpetrator, no matter how powerful, is beyond the reach of justice. This must be done to honor the sacrifices of those who risked their lives to preserve the truth and to ensure that the voices of victims and survivors are not drowned out by silence. Syria’s evidence is not just a record of the past; it is a promise to the future—a promise that the world will not forget, and it will not turn away. – Foreign Policy

Turkey

A ceasefire between Turkey and the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian forces (SDF) around the northern Syrian city of Manbij has been extended until the end of this week, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that an inclusive administration is needed in Syria and called on the European Union to support the return of Syrians who fled during the country’s 13-year civil war. – Reuters

Turkish rescue workers have ended their search for survivors in Syria’s notorious Saydnaya prison, their leader said Tuesday, after finding no detainees languishing in any hidden cells. – Agence France-Presse

Eli Lake writes: An old Kurdish proverb says these people have no friends but the mountains. There are moments in U.S. history when America has proven this wisdom wrong, but for the most part America has been a fair-weather ally. Trump has an opportunity to save lives and restore American honor. All he has to do is persuade Turkey’s strongman to hold off his jihadists. – The Free Press

Michael Rubin writes: The best opportunity to avoid direct conflict would be to recognize the trajectory of Turkey’s aggression outside its borders and the impact of its salami-slicing tactics could endanger Americans and to let Turkey know, in the interests of conflict avoidance, what the United States will be willing to do to protect its own personnel. If Turkey is willing to kill Americans operating in pursuit of official American policy inside Syria, then the United States should adopt the same policy and be willing to kill Turks outside Turkey’s own borders. It is a hard conversation, but it is increasingly a necessary one. – Middle East Forum Observer

Middle East & North Africa

The United States on Tuesday imposed sanctions on two people and one entity based in the United Arab Emirates, accusing them of being involved in a network that launders millions of dollars generated by IT workers and cybercrimes to support the North Korean government. – Reuters

An Egyptian court has upheld a one-year prison sentence with labour against former presidential hopeful Ahmed Tantawy and his campaign manager Mohamed Abou El-Diar on charges of forging election documents, Tantawy’s legal team said on Tuesday. – Reuters

CIA director William Burns will meet the Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Doha on Wednesday for hostage deal negotiations, sources familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Saudi Arabia will not normalize ties with Israel “unless it ends the war in Gaza,” Saudi officials have informed associates of US President-elect Donald Trump, a person with knowledge about the matter told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday evening. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, has taken his boldest diplomatic gamble by supplying an estimated 11,000 troops and stockpiles of weapons to Russia to support its war against Ukraine. – New York Times

South Korea’s foreign minister said on Wednesday he was devising a roadmap to prepare for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s potential reopening of nuclear talks with North Korea, conceding Seoul’s political turmoil had disrupted ties with Trump’s team. – Reuters

South Korea’s ruling party is trying to delay the appointment of judges to the Constitutional Court in a move likely aimed at preventing the opposition from boosting the chances of ousting impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol. – Bloomberg

Gordon G. Chang writes: In any event, Lee Jae-myung if he in fact becomes president, will change South Korea’s direction, reorienting the country away from its only protectors, the U.S. and Japan, and toward its main enemies, particularly North Korea and China. […] America’s commitment is certainly ironclad, but with a leftist in charge, South Korea’s embrace of the alliance will not be. – The Hill

Justin Hastings writes: Japan, for its part, is holding off on meetings with South Korean leaders until the political situation becomes clearer. Wherever the new president decides to go, the uncomfortable truth is that stronger strategic ties with Japan, both bilaterally, and in the context of ties with the United States, are the logical answer to South Korea’s strategic conundrums. A post-Yoon South Korea will certainly want to repudiate Yoon Seok-yeol’s disastrous decisions but may be forced to pick up some of the pieces of his foreign policy informed by these new realities. – The National Interest

China

China’s President Xi Jinping arrives in Macau on Wednesday to mark a quarter century of Beijing’s rule over the former Portuguese enclave, and is likely during his three-day visit to urge further diversification from its casino industry. – Reuters

China’s top diplomat said on Tuesday he hoped the incoming Trump administration would “make the right choice” and work with Beijing, hours after Donald Trump told reporters the COVID-19 pandemic had strained his relationship with “friend” Xi Jinping. – Reuters

The mayor of Taiwan’s capital told visiting Chinese officials on Tuesday he hoped for peace and wanted less of the “howls of ships and aircraft” around the island, saying dialogue trumps confrontation. – Reuters

China executed a former official from Inner Mongolia over corruption charges totaling about 3 billion yuan ($412 million), a rare use of the death penalty for graft that comes with President Xi Jinping’s sweeping campaign to cleanse the Communist Party intensifying. – Bloomberg

Joseph Bosco writes: Biden and Trump should declare that war means Taiwanese independence, reversing Beijing’s perpetual threats that “independence means war.” They should remind Beijing that the Taiwan Relations Act states, “[E]stablish[ing diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means.” – The Hill

South Asia

When Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was toppled in August in a student-led uprising, it was supposed to be a new dawn for the young country. Instead, the raw wounds left by her repressive rule have prompted many to pursue revenge by weaponizing the law—just as she did. – Wall Street Journal

China is ready to work with India to enhance mutual trust through dialogue and communication, and manage differences with sincerity and integrity, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A powerful roadside bomb exploded near a vehicle carrying police officers assigned to protect polio workers in restive northwest Pakistan on Tuesday, killing three officers and wounding two others, police said. – Associated Press

A controversial legislation submitted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to change India’s voting system failed to pass Tuesday in the country’s lower house of Parliament. – Associated Press

A Pakistani charity used an air ambulance on Tuesday to deliver medicines to a northwestern region where a doctor said 29 children had died in the past two months because life-saving supplies couldn’t get through roadblocks following sectarian clashes. – Associated Press

Asia

Pham Van Thinh can see the back of an LG electronics factory from his patio, and in his eyes, nothing is more beautiful than that bright white behemoth. – New York Times

Vietnam will showcase locally made weapons at an international arms fair in Hanoi on Thursday, as it seeks to boost its domestic industry and possibly export military equipment. – Reuters

The Philippines said it delivered provisions earlier this month to its military personnel stationed at features in the South China Sea that Manila occupies but are claimed by Beijing. – Reuters

Rescuers in Vanuatu searched on Wednesday for people trapped under rubble a day after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific nation’s capital Port Vila, killing 14 people including two Chinese nationals and damaging commercial buildings, embassies and a hospital. – Reuters

Mary Jane Veloso, who received a last-minute reprieve from execution by firing squad for drug trafficking in Indonesia in 2015, arrived in the Philippines in the early hours of Wednesday after years of negotiations between the two Southeast Asian countries. – Reuters

Taiwan is introducing a new initiative called “Chips Team Taiwan” that will encourage Taiwanese companies to build more satellites, drones and robotics locally, its technology and science minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto headed to Egypt on Tuesday to attend meetings of a group of eight major Muslim developing countries, known as the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, the government said. – Reuters

A Japanese space startup said its second attempt to launch a rocket carrying satellites into orbit had been aborted minutes after liftoff Wednesday, nine months after the company’s first launch attempt ended in an explosion. – Associated Press

Europe

Business confidence in Germany darkened this month as the government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz fell apart and the country’s manufacturers struggle to get back on their feet, raising fears of recession in Europe’s most important economy. – Wall Street Journal

France raised its flag at its Damascus embassy on Tuesday for the first time in 12 years and European Union officials prepared to engage with the new Syrian leadership, a sign of the growing contacts after Bashar al-Assad was ousted as president. – Reuters

Switzerland’s parliament on Tuesday voted to outlaw Hezbollah, in a rare move by the neutral country that has traditionally followed a policy of promoting international dialogue and mediation. – Reuters

British police said on Tuesday they arrested two Romanian men over the stabbing of a journalist working for a Persian language media organisation in London in March. – Reuters

Germany plans talks with representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Damascus on Tuesday, the foreign ministry said, joining the United States and Britain in establishing contact with the Islamist group after it led the overthrow of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

The European Union’s legislature on Tuesday celebrated the bravery and staunch resistance of Venezuelan opposition leaders Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia while awarding them the EU’s top human rights honor, the Sakharov Prize. – Associated Press

A lawyer accused of trying to interfere in British politics on behalf of the Chinese government has lost a legal challenge against the U.K.’s domestic intelligence agency MI5. – Associated Press

French President Emmanuel Macron will be in Mayotte on Thursday, after tropical cyclone Chido devastated the French overseas territory, according to his office. – Bloomberg

Romania’s pro-European parties settled on a governing program in a coalition that didn’t include a faction that sought deeper talks over fiscal measures to trim the European Union’s widest budget deficit. – Bloomberg

The UK announced fresh sanctions targeting alleged “lynchpins” that enable the trade of Russian oil, along with 20 “shadow fleet” vessels. – Bloomberg

Irish President Michael D. Higgins dismissed Israeli accusations of ingrained antisemitism in Ireland as “deep slander” and accused the Jewish state of seeking to build settlements in Egypt, according to statements he made to the press on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post

Marc Fisher writes: The collapse of Germany’s government comes at an awkward and fragile moment for the world. It’s especially unnerving because, whether they like it or not, the Germans have become a vital symbol of stability for the West — a model of what the U.S.-led community of nations can achieve. Germans tend to think they very much depend on U.S. strength. We — and they — should realize that we also need theirs. – Washington Post

Africa

A Kenyan court has sentenced a man to 50 years in prison after he was convicted of the murder of gay rights activist Edwin Kiptoo nearly two years ago. – Reuters

Democratic Republic of Congo’s health ministry said on Tuesday that a previously unidentified disease circulating in the country’s Panzi health zone is a severe form of malaria. – Reuters

At least 34 people have been killed by Cyclone Chido in Mozambique since it made landfall there on Sunday, the U.N. humanitarian agency OCHA said on Tuesday, citing figures from the southern African country’s disaster agency. – Reuters

Mozambique’s 2024 economic growth is likely to be revised down from a previous forecast of 4.3% due to post-election civil unrest and the impact of Cyclone Chido, a senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said. – Reuters

The new Mauritius government wants better terms over the control of a strategically important UK-US military base in the Indian Ocean, a move that threatens to upend one of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s early diplomatic achievements. – Bloomberg

Rocket launchers, bullets and handguns line the walls of Dirar Ahmed Dirar’s cramped office in Port Sudan’s Daim Almadina neighborhood. Ammunition belts for Russian-made machine guns hang from his secretary’s desk, and Chinese assault rifles lie stacked on chairs. – Bloomberg

Justice Malala writes: In his first term, he pleaded that divisions in the ANC prevented him from moving swiftly with dealing with corruption and implementing economic reforms. Today, even as he has been pressed by an optimistic citizenry to move boldly and quickly, Ramaphosa has continued with his ponderous style while the economy has been stuck in first gear. He needs to quicken his step or he’ll suffer yet another false dawn. – Bloomberg

Cameron Hudson and Michelle Strucke write: U.S. officials have been outspoken about their commitment to resolving the conflict in Sudan and addressing the humanitarian needs of so many millions in need. If those promises are to be more than rhetoric, it is critical to operationalize those commitments by appointing a humanitarian czar that elevates these issues in importance and ensures a degree of continuity at a time of transition. This modest action could affect the fates of millions of people. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

The Americas

Canadian officials unveiled a spending plan to bolster border security in an effort to allay concerns after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump pledged to slap a 25% tariff on imports from its North American trade partners until the countries limit the flow of migrants and illegal drugs. – Wall Street Journal

Canada plans to impose tariffs on a slew of Chinese products from as early as next year, the government’s fiscal update showed, as part of its wider investigation into imports from the country. – Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reflecting on complaints about his leadership by legislators from the ruling Liberal Party who are unhappy that Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland quit, a close ally said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Argentine President Javier Milei on Tuesday demanded that Venezuelan authorities immediately free an Argentine soldier arrested earlier this month who Milei said entered Venezuela to visit family, in the latest flare-up between the two South American nations. – Reuters

Armed men attacked and partially destroyed a hospital in Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince, a hospital director told Reuters on Tuesday, amid a wave of escalating violence that prompted Doctors Without Borders to suspend operations in Haiti last month. – Reuters

Canada imposed sanctions on five current or former senior officials of the Venezuelan government on Tuesday, saying the individuals undermined democracy, in a move rejected by Caracas, which called the measure “illegal.” – Reuters

United States

For years, the United States has collected tips about the whereabouts of Austin Tice, an American journalist who was abducted in Syria in 2012, briefly escaped and then vanished in that country’s gruesome prison system. – New York Times

Congressional leaders on Tuesday unveiled legislation that would keep government funding flowing through the middle of March and provide nearly $100 billion in aid for communities ravaged by hurricanes and other disasters. – New York Times

Congress is set to vote in the coming days on legislation restricting U.S. investments in China as part of a bill to fund government operations through mid-March, lawmakers said late on Tuesday. – Reuters

Editorial: Blocking the deal would also snub Japan, whose help Mr. Trump needs to counter China. “We consider Japan very important,” Mr. Trump said Monday. If so, then why not pledge to approve the deal regardless of whether President Biden tries to block it? Mr. Trump could then take credit for saving steelworker jobs and helping make U.S. Steel great again. – Wall Street Journal

Bret Stephens writes: So here’s a thought for Trump’s perennial critics, including those of us on the right: Let’s enter the new year by wishing the new administration well, by giving some of Trump’s cabinet picks the benefit of the doubt, by dropping the lurid historical comparisons to past dictators, by not sounding paranoid about the ever-looming end of democracy, by hoping for the best and knowing that we need to fight the wrongs that are real and not merely what we fear, that whatever happens, this too shall pass. Enjoy the holidays. – New York Times

Cybersecurity

European Union regulators said Tuesday they’re investigating whether TikTok breached the bloc’s digital rulebook by failing to deal with risks to Romania’s presidential election, which has been thrown into turmoil over allegations of electoral violations and Russian meddling. – Associated Press

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) issued a binding directive on Tuesday giving federal agencies a series of deadlines to identify cloud systems, implement assessment tools and abide by the agency’s Secure Cloud Business Applications (SCuBA) secure configuration baselines. – The Record

Nebraska’s Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against Change Healthcare accusing the company of exposing the sensitive healthcare information of state residents and leaving healthcare providers unable to provide care following a ransomware attack in February. – The Record

Defense

None of the mysterious drones reported over the skies of the US Northeast are being flown by the Pentagon or are part of secret government tests, a Defense Department spokesman said Tuesday. – Bloomberg

Raytheon and growing propulsion firm Ursa Major on Wednesday announced they have conducted successful missile flight tests with a long-range solid rocket motor for the Army. – Defense News

The leader of the House Armed Services Committee said Tuesday the Space Force needs to grow in size to overcome increasing threats from China and Russia. – Defense News