Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

A week of punishing Israeli airstrikes on Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad didn’t just set Syria’s own military back years, experts said, but also peeled away another layer of Iranian defenses in the region, leaving Tehran more exposed than it has been in decades. – Washington Post

U.S. prosecutors on Monday charged two men with illegally exporting sensitive technology to Iran that was used in a drone attack carried out by Iran-backed militants in Jordan in January that killed three U.S. service members and injured 47 others. – Reuters

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will take part in a summit of big Muslim countries in Egypt on Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said, the first visit by an Iranian president to Egypt in more than a decade. – Reuters

The surprise, swift collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria has been met with cautious optimism by many in Iran, where those disillusioned with their own authoritarian Islamic clerical regime see parallels between their struggles and those of the Syrian people.  – DW

Iran is confronting its worst set of crises in years, facing a spiraling economy along with a series of unprecedented geopolitical and military blows to its power in the Middle East. – CNBC

Iran has postponed implementing a new recently approved chastity law after facing backlash from the international community, according to Iran International. A letter from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council sent on Saturday requested the bill’s implementation be delayed so it can be amended and submitted to parliament again. – Newsweek

The collapse of Syria as a cohesive state has dealt a significant blow to Iran and Hezbollah, undermining their influence and logistical capabilities in the region. – New York Sun

Eran Fard writes: Khamenei did not even dare to mention the names of Turkey or Russia in his speech: He neither criticized Bashar Assad nor uttered a single word against Vladimir Putin or Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Instead, he threatened the Iranian people, critics, and analysts. He remains committed to continuing the path of rebellion, as his survival depends on it. He is fundamentally unwilling to coexist with the modern world. Amid lies and threats and failing to address consecutive defeats, he promises the appearance of something that doesn’t exist, and the crisis has engulfed all pillars of the corrupt regime. – Jerusalem Post

Dr. Aaron Lerner writes: Unfortunately, these analysts simply cannot comprehend that Iranian Twelvers could actually welcome an apocalypse set into motion by an Iranian nuclear strike and the response that would follow. Without saying it explicitly, they are arguing that there is some set of universal values that has some kind of veto power over belief systems when adhering to those beliefs can have unsavory results when judged by these “universal values”. This is not an inconsequential academic disagreement. The attitude of policy makers and analysts towards the threat of a nuclear Iran would be radically different if they thought that there was even a 25% chance that Bernard Lewis is correct. – Arutz Sheva

Hamdi Malik and Michael Knights write: Clearly, Iran’s self-styled “axis” is desperate to restore a modicum of deterrence against Israeli and U.S. action. For Iraqi militias, the United States is the main risk (for now), since the U.S. military knows exactly who to strike within their leadership if necessary and has the intelligence and reach to do so on any given day. The muqawama view the U.S. embassy in Baghdad as their best remaining point of leverage: a community of Americans who are always within striking distance, albeit well-fortified and covered by a U.S. deterrent capacity that has been vigorously exercised since 2019. – Washington Institute

Syria

Deposed Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, speaking out for the first time since rebels ended more than 50 years of his family’s brutal rule, defended his decision to leave his country and go to Russia. – Wall Street Journal

Sitting in the cabinet building of the capital his forces seized this month, Jawlani told foreign journalists that Syria’s new government plans to launch a process to overhaul the country’s constitution and institutions.  – Wall Street Journal

The fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad overturned the most profitable drug-smuggling network in the Middle East, exposing the former regime’s role in manufacturing and trafficking pills that fueled war and social crises across the region. – Wall Street Journal

The 13-year civil war between Syria’s government and rebel fighters has ended. But the peril is not over for Syria’s Kurdish minority. A number of armed factions are still jostling for control after the collapse of the Assad regime. – New York Times

Syria’s main ports are working normally after days of disruptions, maritime officials said on Monday, and Ukraine said it was in touch with the interim government about delivering staple foods. – Reuters

Syria’s new regime, led by a group with former ties to al Qaeda, is on a mission to gain international legitimacy – and it’s already seeing some success. – CNN

Governments worldwide are stepping up efforts to engage with Syria’s new interim rulers, just over a week after Islamist-led rebels ousted president Bashar al-Assad, ending decades of brutal rule and civil war. – Agence France-Presse

United Nations aid chief Tom Fletcher met with the commander of Syria’s new administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and newly appointed Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir on Monday to discuss scaling up humanitarian assistance in the country. – Reuters

European Union nations on Monday set out conditions for lifting sanctions on Syria and kick-starting aid to the conflict-ravaged country amid uncertainty about its new leaders’ intentions just over a week after they seized power. – Associated Press

The State Department said on Monday that U.S. government has had more than one communication with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) over the past week, the Islamist group which has emerged as the ruling power in Damascus since toppling Bashar al-Assad just over a week ago. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department on Monday said there is no U.S. government organization currently on the ground in Syria for the search of Austin Tice, an American journalist taken captive during a reporting trip in August 2012, but did not rule out the possibility. – Reuters

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday it was up to Syrians to determine their own future and called for an “inclusive” government taking account of the country’s diverse ethnic and religious interests. – Reuters

Russian military personnel still in Syria are experiencing a lack of food and drinking water as an evacuation of troops and equipment continues, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry (GUR). – Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

A convoy of Russian military vehicles rolled down the highway towards the Syrian city of Tartus on Monday as soldiers stood guard [,..]But whether and how long that presence will last after the fall of former Syrian leader Bashar Assad is now an open question. – Associated Press

The head of a U.S.-based Syrian advocacy organization on Monday said that a mass grave outside of Damascus contained the bodies of at least 100,000 people killed by the former government of ousted President Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

A rebel force deployed to a village in southeastern Damascus to stop looters who swarmed a residential complex and set some apartments on fire. – Associated Press

Villagers and rebels in the Syrian Golan and around the buffer zone have been transferring weapons from the previous regime to the IDF to be taken to Israel, N12 revealed in exclusive footage on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Thomas S. Kaplan and Bernard-Henri Lévy write: The Kurds are much more than a mere rampart against barbarism or a valiant partner in the promotion of Western interests. As a people and a cause, they represent an idea—a promise. They are proud heirs to longstanding humanistic values, democratic norms and religious enlightenment. Under incredibly difficult circumstances, they have managed to establish and nurture free, open, and tolerant societies. Syrian and Iraqi Kurds constitute an essential force for peace and stability in the region, one that is committed to the protection of all minorities, including Christians, Druzes and Yazidis. – Wall Street Journal

Bilal Bilici writes: The path forward will not be easy. Syria’s complex political, ethnic and sectarian divisions make any resolution fraught with difficulty. However, the fall of Assad represents a rare opportunity to address these challenges with a renewed sense of purpose. For the U.S., this moment demands strategic engagement that prioritizes long-term stability over short-term gains. By fostering regional partnerships and supporting inclusive governance, Washington can help shape a post-Assad Syria that avoids the pitfalls of the past. – The Hill

Micah Halpern writes: Given the players, the future in Syria will be violent. The best scenario – though a small possibility – is that once the dust settles, the new Syrian leadership will survey the landscape and conclude that it is better to live next to Israel with security and safety than to try to destroy the Jewish state. Not democracy, not peace – but at least not a constant state of war. – Jerusalem Post

Maya Carlin writes: Many of the weapons deployed by Hezbollah in its recent flare-up with Israel were likely smuggled through Syria from Iran. While the demise of Assad is a net positive for the Jewish state, his successor may be just as hostile to Israel once in power. HTS has been attempting to disassociate from its Islamist root. However, the group’s true nature and priorities cannot be fully understood until a transfer of power is formalized. – The National Interest

Yemen

The Israeli military said sirens sounded across central Israel on Monday after a missile was fired from Yemen and was shot down before it crossed into Israel. – Reuters

American forces carried out an air strike on Monday against a Houthi command and control facility that was used by the Yemeni rebels to coordinate attacks, the US military said. – Agence France-Presse

Israel is likely to finally respond to Yemen’s Houthis in the coming weeks, The Jerusalem Post learned on Monday following yet another ballistic missile attack by the Iranian proxy. – Jerusalem Post

Interdicting the flow of missiles, drones and other weapons and parts from Iran to the Yemen-based Houthis is key to keeping Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea safer for merchant shipping, Fleet Forces commander said Thursday. – USNI News

Noam Raydan and Farzin Nadimi write: Whether the next administration makes any marked changes in its approach toward Houthi behavior will largely depend on its stance on maritime security and freedom of navigation. Securing the southern Red Sea should also involve regional allies and partners to share the costs of this process. This will require strong regional alliances with clear operational mandates to more effectively interdict Houthi supply lines. – Washington Institute

Korean Peninsula

President Yoon Suk Yeol has changed the course of South Korea’s diplomacy like no leader before him. He put his country in lock step with the United States by countering North Korea with sanctions and joint military drills. He won Washington’s plaudits when he overcame a century of historical grievances Koreans held against Japan​ and helped lay the ground for trilateral cooperation to deter China. – New York Times

South Korea has blacklisted 11 individuals and 15 entities linked to illicit military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, Seoul’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

South Korean authorities made a new attempt on Tuesday to search the presidential office and obtain evidence as part of a probe into the legality of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s short-lived bid to impose martial law, Yonhap news agency reported. – Reuters

South Korea’s acting leader vowed Tuesday to convey to the world that things are back to normal following parliament’s impeachment of conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol, but rival parties began squabbling over the mechanics of a court ruling to determine whether to formally unseat or reinstate him. – Associated Press

Gearoid Reidy writes: All of which leaves things in East Asia looking rockier than could scarcely have been believed at the start of 2024. Yoon, Kishida and Biden, in their Camp David statement, noted that the “opportunity that lies before us was not guaranteed — it was embraced.” Cordial relations between the nations are indeed far from set in stone, regardless of attempts to future-proof them. They require constant work, sacrifice and, indeed, bravery. The three leaders who will replace Yoon, Kishida and Biden would do well to remember that. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Bangladesh’s ousted prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, and senior officials orchestrated a centralized program of enforced disappearances with thousands of likely victims, a commission set up by the country’s interim government said in a preliminary report. – New York Times

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake was hosted Monday by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his first overseas visit since assuming office that focused on shoring up ties as concerns grew over China’s influence in the region. – Associated Press

Sumit Ganguly writes: After a five-decade hiatus, a Pakistani cargo ship docked in the port city of Chittagong, Bangladesh, last month. The ship’s arrival signaled a significant shift in Bangladesh’s dealings with Pakistan, from which it seceded in 1971. Dhaka has also boosted its acquisition of arms and ammunition from Islamabad and dispensed with its practice of a full customs inspection of Pakistani imports. – Foreign Policy

Europe

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence on Monday, triggering the dissolution of parliament and rare early elections at a moment when Europe’s largest economy is faltering. – Washington Post

The British establishment is abuzz over allegations that a Chinese businessman — named in court Monday as Yang Tengbo — sought to forge close links with King Charles III’s younger brother to gather intelligence on British elites on behalf of the Chinese state. – Washington Post

Business activity continues to weaken in the eurozone as further uncertainty around domestic politics and global trade looms in the new year, according to surveys published Monday. – Wall Street Journal

Twelve Western countries have agreed measures to “disrupt and deter” Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of vessels in order to prevent sanctions breaches and increase the cost to Moscow of the war in Ukraine, Estonia’s government said on Monday. – Reuters

Israel’s foreign minister accused Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris on Monday of antisemitism as he defended Israel’s decision to close its embassy in Dublin over Ireland’s policies. – Reuters

Britain’s Labour government has pared back an audit of relations with China, four sources with knowledge of the matter said, preparing the way for a less critical report that could help Prime Minister Keir Starmer focus on improving economic ties. – Reuters

Hungary and Slovakia – both with populist, pro-Russian leaders — on December 16 blocked a proposed package of European Union sanctions against leading Georgian officials for that government’s violent crackdown on pro-West protesters over recent weeks. – Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty

Imran Khalid writes: Governments must champion diversity as a strength, not a liability, and foster a sense of shared purpose. By embracing managed immigration and celebrating multiculturalism, societies can overcome the corrosive narratives of division and instead focus on the immense richness diversity brings to everyone’s lives. This is not just an economic imperative but a moral one — a chance for Europe to reflect the best of itself in the face of those who would exploit its worst instincts. – The Hill

Latin America

Alexandre Apolinário, a leader in this Indigenous territory, said he should have known what they meant. He’d seen the arrival of the gang, with its guns and thirst for gold. He’d watched it recruit villagers, turning his people against each other. He knew the extreme violence it had brought to neighboring Indigenous lands could one day come to his own. – Washington Post

The arrest of a four-star general in Brazil over the weekend shows courts are ready to play hardball with those accused of plotting to violently overturn election results, breaking with the impunity that shadowed nearly a century of military coups. – Reuters

Venezuela’s attorney general said in a statement on Monday that 533 people arrested for taking part in protests over a contested July election have been freed. – Reuters

A man detained in Venezuela during the civil unrest that followed the country’s disputed July presidential election died in custody Monday, marking the third such death reported by an inmates’ rights organization. – Associated Press

United States

The family of a Turkish-born American human rights activist killed by Israel in the occupied West Bank pleaded with Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday for a U.S. probe into her killing but got no promises, the woman’s husband said. – Reuters

A U.S. investment group has acquired Israeli spyware vendor Paragon, a competitor to digital surveillance provider NSO Group, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported on Monday. – Reuters

Steven E. Koonin writes: Rather, Europe and the U.S. should follow Xi Jinping’s energy-transition plan for China: “Build the new before discarding the old.”  It will take a year for a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement to take effect. Mr. Trump could use that time to highlight the agreement’s failures, plan a global “energy for all” program and strengthen efforts to develop cleaner tech. Doing so would show how futile and destructive the world’s current efforts to reduce emissions really are, and chart a healthier path for the planet. – Wall Street Journal 

Lotje Boswinkel, Luis Simón, Alexander Lanoszka, and Hugo Meijer write: An “America First” policy could thus cut two ways for alliance networking. On the one hand, it may undermine cooperation amongst U.S. allies within and across regions, as a result of a focus on bilateralism and regional tradeoffs. On the other, its emphasis on competition with China could incentivize the Trump administration to look for ways to leverage within- and cross-regional networking, even if emphasizing bilateralism and U.S. centrality. Yet given the structural drivers underpinning the transformation of intra- and cross-theater alliance cooperation, the alliance networking in Europe and Asia may well be here to stay. – War on the Rocks

Mitch McConnell writes: The United States urgently needs to reach a bipartisan consensus on the centrality of hard power to U.S. foreign policy. This fact must override both left-wing faith in hollow internationalism and right-wing flirtation with isolation and decline. The time to restore American hard power is now. – The National Interest

Defense

The AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine partnership with Australia will benefit the United States and is the kind of “burden sharing” deal that President-elect Donald Trump has talked about, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. – Reuters

In looking into “the technical data and tips from concerned citizens, we assess that the sightings to date include a combination of lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones,” read a joint statement from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the FBI, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Department of Defense (DOD). – The Hill

Editorial: The Administration failed for months to be candid about its migrant flights from the border to the U.S. interior. And for months it covered up the truth about President Biden’s declining mental and physical fitness, only to have it exposed in a debate. The government’s attempt to censor alternative views about Covid shutdowns during the Trump Administration also spread mistrust. The more Americans don’t trust their government, the more panic or protests are possible. – Wall Street Journal

Jos Joseph writes: The U.S. was willing to engage in a trillion-dollar military “war” meant to keep American safe. And now the millions of men and women who did now have to worry that fiscal conservatism will brand them welfare queens in order to keep American from caring for its veterans.  – The Hill

Clayton Swope writes: What the string of unexplained sightings demonstrates is that the United States has an incomplete picture of drone activity in U.S. airspace, primarily due to the unsuitability of traditional radar to track small, low-flying drones […]What these sightings also show is that officials are hesitant to take action to disable drones whose operators and purposes remain opaque. In wartime or a crisis, such hesitation could result in casualties and damage to critical infrastructure, possibly under attack by hostile drones. – Center for Strategic and International Studies