Fdd's overnight brief

December 16, 2024

In The News

Israel

Israel announced on Sunday that it was closing its embassy in Dublin in light of what it described as “the extreme anti-Israel policies of the Irish government.” The decision came days after Ireland announced that it would file an intervention in support of South Africa’s case against Israel in the International Court of Justice in The Hague. – New York Times

Israel’s military said it carried out strikes and raids in northern Gaza on Sunday after days of deadly bombardments across the territory. The military said in a statement that it had targeted a “terrorist meeting point” in the northern town of Beit Hanoun, among other actions. – New York Times

Israel struck Syrian weapons depots and air defenses overnight, a group monitoring the conflict said Sunday, in what appeared to be part of an effort Israel says is aimed at depriving “extremists” of military assets after rebels seized power in Syria. – New York Times

The Palestinian Authority announced an unusually public crackdown on militants in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Saturday, sending armored vehicles through a city’s streets and engaging in gun battles with armed groups. – New York Times

Israel agreed on Sunday to double its population on the occupied Golan Heights while saying threats from Syria remained despite the moderate tone of rebel leaders who ousted President Bashar al-Assad a week ago. – Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump about developments in Syria and a recent push to secure the release of Israeli and foreign hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, he said on Sunday. – Reuters

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has ordered Israeli troops to prepare to stay over the winter on Mount Hermon, a strategic location overlooking Damascus, adding to signs that Israel’s presence in Syria is set to continue for a prolonged period. – Reuters

Health officials in the Gaza Strip say the death toll from the 14-month war between Israel and Hamas militants has topped 45,000 people. The Gaza Health Ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children. – Associated Press

A Gaza hostage-ceasefire is closer than it has ever been before, a senior Hamas official told the Saudi news outlet Asharq on Monday. “We are closer than ever to reaching a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire, provided that Netanyahu does not obstruct the agreement,” the official reportedly said. – Jerusalem Post

Security forces scrambled to put up checkpoints and conduct searches outside Jerusalem on Sunday as authorities working off an intelligence tip hunted down a suspected terror cell thought to be plotting an attack, in what was ultimately a false alarm. – Times of Israel

Editorial: The Fifty Research Group’s findings also highlight that casualty figures often fail to account for deaths caused by Hamas itself. One example cited is the case of 17-year-old Ahmed Shdad Halmy Brika, who was reportedly shot by Hamas while attempting to collect humanitarian aid for his family. The report observed that incidents like these are routinely omitted from mainstream media narratives. The Jerusalem Post calls on the international media to exercise greater caution when reporting on casualty figures, ensuring their information is sourced from reliable, verified data rather than propaganda tools controlled by terrorist organizations. – Jerusalem Post

Barton Swaim writes: How to regain deterrence at the end of all that? Mr. Dermer has an answer. “When the U.S. is part of a victory that projects strength”—he interrupts himself. “I’ll be diplomatic and I won’t get into what happens when you are perceived as weak, or how that might affect other theaters. I’ll just say, Israel’s war is a theater in which we are going to win, and America can win with it. So be part of that victory.” – Wall Street Journal

Leon Hadar writes: That might actually increase the chances for an Israeli-Saudi détente and the realization of the first Trump administration’s goal of establishing an axis of Arab states and Israel that would help contain Iran in addition to taking steps to stabilize and reconstruct the Gaza Strip. Similarly, Trump may decide that since his “maximum pressure” policy on Iran didn’t work in Trump 1.0, perhaps he would consider a new Iran policy in Trump 2.0 that could lead perhaps to a deal, the kind that Trump likes to make. – The National Interest

Iran

In the days since the abrupt and unexpected obliteration of Iran as a dominant presence in Syria, the government has faced a fierce public backlash over the billions of dollars spent and the Iranian blood shed to back the Assad regime. – New York Times

An Iranian court has sentenced Iranian-American journalist Reza Valizadeh to 10 years in prison for working at a U.S.-funded radio outlet, his lawyer Mohammad Hossein Aghasi said on X on Saturday. – Reuters

Iran will not impede U.N. nuclear watchdog’s access and inspection of its sites, the head of the country’s Atomic Energy Organization said on Saturday. – Reuters

Iranian authorities have arrested a female singer who performed a virtual concert on YouTube, a lawyer said. Milad Panahipour, an Iranian lawyer, said Parastoo Ahmady, 27, was arrested in Sari City, capital of the northern province of Mazandaran, on Saturday. – Associated Press

PEN America condemned the arrest of Reza Khandan, Iranian activist and husband of leading human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, and demanded his immediate release. – Associated Press

Officials in Tehran this week sought to play down the significance, saying they had seen it coming and blaming Assad for intransigence. But as the world weighs the consequences of Assad’s ouster and its impact on Middle East dynamics, Iran is left scrambling to figure out how to respond with questions over the vulnerability of its leadership. – Bloomberg

The closure of schools and other public institutions began over the weekend across provinces in the northern half of the country, according to reports in Iranian media. They will remain shut in coming days as part of efforts to manage the strain on fuel supplies. – Bloomberg

Iranian political prisoner Mohammad-Amin Mahdavi Shayesteh was transferred to a pre-execution solitary confinement cell, Oslo-based NGO Iran Human Rights stated on Friday. – Jerusalem Post

David Ignatius writes: If coercive diplomacy fails to quash Iran’s nuclear capability, Israel and the United States might consider military action. Many Iranian nuclear facilities are buried deep underground, and analysts have argued that only the United States has big enough conventional weapons to bust those bunkers. Gallant hopes the United States and Israel will work together to prevent a nuclear Iran. But he stressed: “Israel has the means to strike Iranian assets in a precise, forceful and sophisticated manner. If needed, we will not hesitate to act.” The clock is ticking in Tehran, Jerusalem and Washington. For all the conflicts that Trump will inherit, the looming standoff between Israel and Iran might be the most urgent and dangerous. – Washington Post

James Stavridis writes: On the diplomatic side, the culmination of a cease-fire in Gaza would be helpful. The Houthi attacks were ostensibly launched in solidarity with Hamas; a Gaza cease-fire could cause the terrorists to stop their war on global shipping. But we cannot allow them to retain the capability to quickly restart their assaults — either of their own accord or at the behest of Iran. Tehran has the weakest hand of cards it has held in two decades, since it undertook the construction of its elaborate network of terrorist proxies. Culling the remaining threat on the shores of the Red Sea is the best course to further weaken the rotten regime in Teheran and to reopen one of the world’s most important shipping lanes. – Bloomberg

Sarah Idan writes: Considering Tehran’s attacks on Ukraine and Russia’s on the Syrian opposition, it should be clear that Russian and Iranian aggression is the same phenomenon and that the perceived separation exists only in the minds of certain clueless Western journalists, academics, and diplomats. So, too, with the assault on Israel. While Iran’s arming of, training for, and coordination of the attacks by Hamas on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, are well-known, Russia’s participation in the assault is less widely understood. Yet, the brutal massacre of about 1,200 innocent people in Israel and the kidnapping of another 254 was made possible by Russian intelligence collaboration with Hamas, as Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, has publicly disclosed. – Washington Examiner

AIdin Panahi writes:  At the same time, diplomatic efforts should engage exiled opposition leaders to amplify the voices of Iranians advocating for change. This strategy avoids direct engagement with the regime, while reinforcing external pressure and fostering internal resilience to promote unity. For the US and its allies, preserving Iran’s territorial integrity is not only a strategic necessity but also an investment in long-term regional stability. The Middle East cannot endure another cycle of destabilization, nor can the global economy absorb the shocks of intensified instability in such a critical region. – Jerusalem Post

Russia & Ukraine

Nearly three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv is still using unpaid volunteers manning antiquated weapons to shoot down the daily swarms of drones targeting the capital, underscoring the government’s urgent requests to partners for new air defense systems. – Washington Post

Russia launched a large-scale aerial attack Friday on Ukraine involving dozens of cruise missiles and nearly 200 drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, in what Moscow described as a direct response to Kyiv’s recent use of American missiles against targets inside Russia. – Washington Post

Two Russian tankers that spilled oil into the Kerch Strait after sustaining serious damage during a heavy storm on Sunday were carrying 9,200 metric tons (62,000 barrels) of oil products at the time, the state TASS news agency reported. – Reuters

A Ukrainian drone attack destroyed a Russian ammunition depot near the village of Markine in Russian-occupied Donetsk region, a source in Ukraine’s SBU state security service said on Monday. – Reuters

Russia has begun using North Korean troops in significant numbers for the first time to conduct assaults on Ukrainian forces battling to hold an enclave in Russia’s Kursk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday. – Reuters

Ukraine said on Monday that North Korean units fighting for Russia sustained losses of at least 30 soldiers killed or wounded around several villages on the front in Russia’s Kursk region over the weekend. – Reuters

Ukraine’s military leadership has replaced the commander overseeing defences in the eastern Donetsk region where Russian forces are making swift advances, a military official said on Saturday. – Reuters

Ukrainian drones carried out an overnight attack on an oil facility in Russia’s Oryol region that is a crucial source of fuel supplies for Russian troops, Ukraine’s military said on Saturday. – Reuters

Ukrainian drones attacked an infrastructure facility storing fuel in central Russia’s Oryol region, sparking a fire and smashing windows in homes, regional governor Andrei Klychkov said early on Saturday. – Reuters

The new commander of Ukraine’s ground forces plans a “massive transformation” of his branch to improve troop training, management and recruitment, Kyiv said on Friday, as it grapples with manpower problems at the front. – Reuters

European Union nations on Monday will discuss preparations for the winter with the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine set to expire and the bloc trying to phase out reliance on fossil fuels from Moscow. – Bloomberg

Marc Champion writes: This isn’t about sending Kyiv potentially provocative new categories of weapons. Some of what Ukraine needs would have to come from Western stocks and manufacturers, such as the air defense Scholz has promised. But Ukraine’s domestic arms industry can produce the rest. As Zelenskiy’s adviser for strategic affairs Oleksandr Kamyshin told me on my Pokrovsk trip, the defense procurement budget for 2025 is $10 billion, while the production capacity of Ukraine’s combined defense industry will be $30 billion. In other words, Ukraine can now produce most of what it needs to stabilize the lines and equip new battalions — it just lacks the money to buy it. – Bloomberg

Douglas Mackinnon writes: There is going to be a ceasefire. There was always going to be a ceasefire. Except now, Ukraine will be in a much worse position because it has lost dramatically more territory since the first ceasefire was contemplated. Worst of all, hundreds of thousands of more men, women and children have been needlessly killed or maimed because “leaders” from the West wanted to continue to play a board game from the safety of their offices thousands of miles away from the battlefield using those men, women and children as cheap, disposable, pawns. – The Hill

Hezbollah

Hezbollah lost its most important supply route from Iran through Syria, Naim Qassem said, the first time the chief of the Lebanese militia has publicly acknowledged how the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has hurt the group’s ability to rearm after a punishing Israeli campaign. – Wall Street Journal

Ten weeks into the invasion of Lebanon and about three weeks into the ceasefire, the IDF said on Sunday that it has confiscated over 10,000 Hezbollah weapons in a large number of different districts of southern Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post

The head of a political party and a Christian coalition group in Lebanon is calling on the U.S. and its Western allies to step in and deploy deterrent forces to permanently dismantle Hezbollah. – Fox News

Syria

So far, life for people in Syria’s ancient Christian community hasn’t been disrupted by the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad. But there is anxiety about what comes next under the rule of the Islamist-led groups who have taken power in the country. – Wall Street Journal

With the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, a global hunt is now beginning for the billions of dollars in cash and assets the family stashed away over half a century of despotic rule. The chase will likely be long, if the yearslong attempts to recover the wealth secreted overseas by Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadhafi are anything to go by. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. is in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist rebel group that led the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and is communicating Washington’s hope that a transitional government can quickly establish security and prevent the country from descending into chaos. – Wall Street Journal

Washington’s main ally in Syria warned that a power vacuum in the country was leading to attacks on the group by Turkish-backed rebels, forcing it to halt its yearslong campaign against Islamic State. – Wall Street Journal

An American who came to Syria on foot and in search of religious fulfillment instead found himself a captive in one of the Assad regime’s most brutal prisons—alongside political prisoners and torture victims. The man, who gave his name to Syrian authorities as Travis Timmerman, said he came to the Middle East on a religious pilgrimage after traveling in Europe. – Wall Street Journal

As tens of thousands of Syrians return after the sudden ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, they face a new danger: millions of unexploded land mines and munitions from the country’s 13-year civil war. – Washington Post

Russia is dismantling equipment at an air base in Syria and loading it into cargo planes after the ouster of longtime Moscow client Bashar al-Assad, images show. Captured by Maxar on Friday morning, the images reveal two An-124 cargo planes at Russia’s Hmeimim airfield with their nose cones opened to receive equipment, the commercial firm said. – Washington Post

Qatar will reopen its embassy in Syria on Tuesday after it was closed for more than 13 years, the Gulf country’s foreign ministry said on Sunday, a week after Bashar al-Assad was removed from power. – Reuters

France will send a team of diplomats to Syria on Tuesday to assess the political and security situation, the foreign ministry said, without specifying whom they would meet. – Reuters

In the final days leading to his ouster, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad complained to Iran’s foreign minister that Turkey was actively supporting Sunni rebels in their offensive to topple him, two Iranian officials told Reuters this week. – Reuters

A Russian cargo plane departed from Russia’s air base in the Syrian port city of Latakia for Libya on Saturday, a Syrian security official stationed outside the facility said, following rebels’ overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad last weekend. – Reuters

Turkey’s embassy in Damascus will resume work on Saturday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Friday, adding the diplomatic delegation headed to Syria. – Reuters

Syrian rebel leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa and United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen discussed reconsidering a 2015 UN Security Council resolution outlining a road map for the country’s political transition, a body representing Syria’s de facto rulers said. – Bloomberg

The Jewish community was not targeted during the overthrow of the Assad regime by rebel groups last week, a member of Damascus’s tiny Jewish community told KAN news on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Senator Jim Risch writes: These next weeks and months are critical as the Syrian people rebuild their own government. Before the dust has even settled, a lot of countries are jockeying for influence in Syria. Countries such as China, Russia, Iran, and others, those I call the “no-goodnicks,” will attempt to reestablish influence and undermine the chance to build a better peace in the region for Israel and our other allies. The future leaders of Syria must listen to their people and grant them a new future of stability and security. It is my sincere hope they will, but the “no-goodnicks” are never far from a power vacuum. The U.S. would do well to secure our interests in Syria and empower our allies and friends in the region to defend themselves and work together to help Syria rebuild, as only Syrians can decide their own future. – Washington Examiner

Martin Ivens writes: Soon, Donald Trump will be back in the White House too. Trump showed little appetite for military adventures in his first term and his approach to foreign policy was purely transactional. Perhaps he will succeed where the liberal internationalists failed, but realpolitik divorced from morality has its pitfalls too. If proof is needed, just look at the wreckage of Putin’s great power ambitions in Syria. – Bloomberg

Aviram Bellaishe writes: Israel needs a different policy toward Turkey that takes into account the interests of this country and its leader. In the bazaar over Israel’s security, which requires restraining the rebels under Turkey’s control, experts will tell Turkey that a “Palestinian” exchange currency is required. The emphasis, however, should be on relations with Turkey in the Syrian context, as Israel continues and entrenches its military presence and restores the ties it had with the Free Syrian Army, the Druze, and the people of southern Syria, the Golan Heights, graduates of “operation good neighbor.” – Jerusalem Post

Matthew Levitt writes: U.S. officials need to watch not only how the new ruling rebel alliance governs in the moment, but how it governs going forward. For many, Syria today has very strong echoes of Iran after the 1979 revolution. Back then, many groups of Iranians opposed to the shah—communists, secularists, Islamists—got behind Ayatollah Khomeini’s revolution. The new government in Tehran talked the talk about respecting minority rights and even included secularists in government for a time. Then the theocracy took hold and Iran became a sponsor of terrorism for decades, continuing to this day. – Washington Institute

Sam Heller writes: They should provide immediate relief from sanctions imposed on the previous Assad government, including waivers or licenses neutralizing sanctions on state institutions such as Syria’s central bank and on whole economic sectors. Outsiders should strongly discourage any new factional conflict and resist the temptation to advance their own interests by supporting one group over another. Although some countries may have understandable reservations about HTS, they should still want Syria’s transition to succeed, and they absolutely should not interfere and make it fail. The disintegration of Syria will be worse, for Syrians and for the region. And if Syria sinks into chaos, it won’t just be a human disaster—it will mean that the case for the Assad dictatorship has been vindicated. – Foreign Affairs

Iraq

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unannounced visit to Iraq on Friday and met with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to discuss Syria’s political transition, calling for a non-sectarian administration following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

Secretary of State Antony Blinken used an unannounced stop in Baghdad to ask Iraq’s prime minister to prevent Iran from shipping arms or other equipment through the country into Syria, a US official said Friday. – Bloomberg

Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov has been held by a Shiite militia since March 2023; her US-based sister, leading the fight for her release, shares about her frustration with US tax dollars going to her sisters’ kidnappers, the hierarchy vs. Gaza hostages, hopes for Trump and years without sleep. – Ynet

Turkey

Turkey has branded this global campaign its own “war on terror” in an echo of the phrase that came to define the period after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States. Turkey has also drawn extensively from the U.S. counterterrorism playbook. Beyond renditions, it has used secret detentions, terrorism watch lists, asset seizures and torture — including at least one reported case of waterboarding — against exiles, according to U.N. documents, human rights groups. – Washington Post

In the messy aftermath of the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, many questions remain about the country’s future, but one thing is clear: Turkey has emerged as a winner, with more influence than ever over the rebels who now control most of Syria. – New York Times

The new administration in Syria should be given a chance to govern following their constructive messages, and Turkey stands ready to provide military training if such help is requested, Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler said. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan agreed on Friday on the need for continued efforts to counter any resurgence of Islamic State in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

Turkey’s competition authority has fined Alphabet Inc’s Google 2.61 billion lira ($75 million), for taking advantage of its dominant position in ad server services market, the regulator said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

Robert Ellis writes: After Assad’s flight, Moscow’s hand has weakened, and there are signs of withdrawal, although it maintains control of the Khmeimim air base and its naval base at Tartus for now. Turkey, however, is touted as the outside power with the most substantial hand in steering Syria’s political transition. Erdogan has gone so far as to claim, “Now, there are only two leaders in the world. They are myself and Vladimir Putin.”Turkey is adamantly opposed to the Syrian Kurds playing any role in shaping their country’s future, which flies against the fact they make up some 10 percent of the population and occupy a large area of the country. Turkey also has a vested interest in the return of the four million Syrian refugees that Turkey, with European support, has hosted since 2011. An interim Syrian government has formed. Yet, given the influence of HTS, there is concern about its direction. – The National Interest

Arabian Peninsula

The United Arab Emirates plans to reduce oil shipments early next year, amid the OPEC+ group’s push to seek stronger discipline in meeting production targets, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. – Reuters

The United Arab Emirates is on a borrowing binge — and looks set to extend its debt-issuance spree well into the new year. Companies as well as sovereign entities in the UAE — one of the highest-rated emerging markets — issued $38.4 billion of dollar debt this year. – Bloomberg

Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq have condemned Israel’s move to expand settlements in the Golan Heights. – Jerusalem Post

Libya

Fires that broke out in a number of reservoirs in Libya’s Zawiya refinery have been brought under control, Khaled Abulgasem Gulam, spokesperson for the country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), said in a statement on Sunday. – Reuters

The United Nations will convene a technical committee of Libyan experts in an attempt to resolve contentious issues and put the country on the path to long-awaited national elections, the acting head of the U.N. mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said on Sunday. – Reuters

Clashes broke out Sunday between armed groups in a western Libyan city, trapping residents in their homes and causing fires in the country’s second largest oil refinery, officials said. – Associated Press

Middle East & North Africa

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing agreed with Egypt that both nations should promote peace and negotiations to achieve stability in the Middle East, amid several crises in the region including Syria, according to a media pool report. – Reuters

France dismissed allegations by Algeria it was involved in attempts to destabilize the North African country after authorities in Algiers summoned the French ambassador to reprimand him. – Bloomberg

The group fighting for Western Sahara’s independence warned it may ramp up military attacks as Morocco looks to consolidate control of the disputed territory after securing US and French backing. – Bloomberg

President-elect Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a visit to Saudi Arabia this past week, according to two sources briefed on the meeting – the first encounter between MBS and a representative of the incoming Trump administration since the November elections. – Jerusalem Post

Karen Elliott House writes: There is hope that Mr. Trump can further isolate Iran, protecting America’s Israeli and Saudi allies; that he can exploit Mr. Putin’s weakness to secure an honorable peace for Ukraine; and that these achievements will allow Washington to focus on China’s threat to Taiwan. The risk is that this web of conflict will grow, inadvertently triggering wider conflicts for which the U.S. is ill-prepared. – Wall Street Journal

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s legislature impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his decision to briefly institute martial law, kick-starting a monthslong process to potentially select a new leader following one of the nation’s most tumultuous chapters in recent years. – Wall Street Journal

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment and suspension from office has left South Korea, one of the United States’ most important allies, without a strong​ elected leader to tackle challenges like a belligerent North Korea and a deepening political polarization at home.​ – New York Times

South Korea’s finance ministry said on Monday authorities would continue monitoring financial and foreign exchange markets. – Reuters

South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol defied requests by investigative agencies to appear for questioning over his short-lived martial law decree, as the Constitutional Court began its first meeting Monday on Yoon’s case to determine whether to formally unseat or reinstate him. – Associated Press

China

Faced with rising social frustrations and public unrest, China’s leaders are ramping up security measures and squelching discordant views on the country’s economic health. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. is preparing rules that would restrict the sale of advanced artificial-intelligence chips in certain parts of the world in an attempt to limit China’s ability to access them, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden Administration agreed to extend and modify a long-running agreement with China on cooperation in science and technology, supporting requests from the academic community against warnings of Republicans that the pact weakens national security. – Wall Street Journal

China’s Communist Party must “turn the knife inward” to eliminate problems of discipline, including corruption, President Xi Jinping said, a new call to hunt down corrupt officials and those who corrupt them. – Reuters

A delegation of Chinese officials led by a deputy Shanghai mayor arrived in Taipei on Monday for an annual city-to-city forum, a rare visit happening at a time of heightened Taiwan-China military and political tension. – Reuters

Editorial: Meanwhile, Mr. Trump invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration on Jan. 20. Mr. Xi is reportedly going to decline the invitation, and we’re glad to hear it. There’s something unseemly about a dictator with anti-U.S. designs attending America’s quadrennial ritual of a transfer of democratic power. Mr. Trump likes to say he gets along famously with Mr. Xi and wants to send that friendly signal. But personal relations don’t matter much to the hard man who runs the Chinese Communist Party. Mr. Xi can’t be charmed by Mr. Trump, and he won’t call off his cyber-spies and thieves unless he knows China will pay some price for his aggression. – Wall Street Journal

South Asia

Now, as the incoming administration girds for new battles over trade, Trump and his team are signaling that they intend to slam this backdoor shut. Such a move would hurt Vietnam’s small but rapidly growing economy, and likely mean higher prices for U.S. consumers who buy Vietnamese goods and U.S. companies supplied by Vietnamese factories. – Wall Street Journal

Elections in Bangladesh could be held by the end of 2025, the head of the country’s interim government said on Monday, provided that electoral reforms are carried out first. – Reuters

The U.S. fraud case against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani appears to be backed by documents that will help prosecutors make a strong case, legal experts said, but the tycoon is unlikely to be extradited to stand trial anytime soon. – Reuters

The U.N. Security Council said Friday it was deeply concerned about the recent decision by Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to ban women from medical education, which could leave millions of women and girls without health care in the future. – Associated Press

Asia

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has dismissed the prime minister, Akylbek Japarov, the presidential administration said in a statement on Monday. – Reuters

Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto will pardon tens of thousands of prisoners ranging from activists convicted of defamation to those jailed in the easternmost province of Papua for criticising the government, a minister said on Friday. – Reuters

Thailand said on Monday it will host two regional meetings on Myanmar this week, with at least one to have representatives of the junta, as the Malaysian Prime Minister said efforts were being made to bring Myanmar back to the fore of ASEAN. – Reuters

Singaporean asset manager Keppel (KPLM.SI) and Vietnamese conglomerate Sovico Group are discussing plans for new undersea fiber-optic cables that would boost the region’s data centre industry, people familiar with the discussions said. – Reuters

The Philippine Senate on Monday ratified a reciprocal access agreement (RAA) with Japan that would allow their militaries to deploy on each other’s soil as both countries worry about China’s increasingly assertive stance in the region. – Reuters

A U.S. Navy warship arrived Monday in Cambodia, the first such visit in eight years to a nation that is China’s close ally in Southeast Asia. Cambodia’s government has suggested the port call reflects an upgrade in often-strained relations. – Associated Press

Thai police on Saturday said two suspects were in custody as authorities investigated a bombing in the north that killed at least three people and injured dozens of others. – Associated Press

Robert C. O’Brien writes: The stakes are high. The global economy is increasingly sensitive to geopolitical pressures, with disruptions in one region often triggering ripple effects worldwide. Expanding the United States’ network of reliable trade partners is essential to protecting national security and ensuring long-term prosperity. This is how the economic competitions of the twenty-first century will be won—not through isolation or dependence, but through strategic partnerships built on shared interests, mutual trust, and a commitment to free and open markets. The United States and Vietnam have a rare opportunity to reshape the economic and strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific. It is time to seize it. – The National Interest

Europe

French President Emmanuel Macron appointed François Bayrou as prime minister on Friday, picking a seasoned centrist to referee between France’s rowdy political factions and find a way out of the political crisis that has paralyzed the country for months. – Wall Street Journal

This incident on Nov. 26, the details of which haven’t previously been reported, was part of an increasingly heated standoff between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Europe, with the Baltic region emerging as the key flashpoint in a confrontation unseen since the height of the Cold War. – Wall Street Journal

In a surprise announcement, Moody’s rating agency downgraded France’s debt rating early Saturday, hours after President Emmanuel Macron appointed a new prime minister in a bid to stabilize a government that has been rocked by months of political turmoil. – New York Times

Britain officially became the 12th member of a trans-Pacific trade pact which includes Japan, Australia and Canada on Sunday as it seeks to deepen ties in the region and build its global trade links after leaving the European Union. – Reuters

Chancellor Olaf Scholz will call on Germany’s parliament on Monday to declare it has no confidence in him, taking the first formal step towards securing early elections following his government’s collapse. – Reuters

New French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will meet with the heads of parliamentary groups on Monday and Tuesday, starting with Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National, he told La Tribune Dimanche in an interview. – Reuters

Britain’s Prince Andrew was facing intense media scrutiny on Saturday after revelations that a close Chinese business associate of the scandal-hit younger brother of King Charles was thought by the British government to be a Chinese spy. – Reuters

Four men suspected of planning terrorist attacks were arrested Sunday in western North Macedonia, authorities said. Interior Minister Panche Toshkovski said the arrests were made during raids on several locations in the western towns of Struga and Gostivar. The four men are suspected of being “part of terrorist organizations (and) have been under surveillance for a long time.” – Associated Press

The Labour government says 13,500 people with no right to be in the UK have been removed since they took office, the most since 2018. They have organized 33 charter flights since they took office and used raids to find some of these illegal migrants. – Bloomberg

The UK and Australia plan to underscore their resolve to maintain a defense pact with the US at a meeting on Monday amid concern about President-elect Donald Trump’s commitment to the agreement. – Bloomberg

Georgia selected Mikheil Kavelashvili as its next president on Saturday, as protests backed by the current head of state continue over the government’s turn away from the West in favor of closer ties with Russia. – Bloomberg

The non-governmental groups had accused Israel of conducting a “genocide” in the war with Hamas in Gaza, a claim that has been roundly dismissed by Jerusalem. But the court said the Dutch government was respecting rules governing the country’s arms trade. – Agence France-Presse

Africa

To beef up the ranks of his embattled military, Captain Traoré’s government recruited tens of thousands of men into a civilian militia, known as the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland. The militia was created by a previous leader to protect communities against the insurgents. But under Captain Traoré, it has spread unchecked violence and pitted local populations against each other. – New York Times

Tropical Cyclone Chido made landfall in Mozambique on Sunday after causing destruction in Mayotte, a French archipelago of about 300,000 people in the Indian Ocean, where at least 11 people died, France’s interior ministry said on Sunday. – New York Times

A meeting between the presidents of Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo will not take place as planned on Sunday, both countries said, dashing hopes of a deal to curb Congo’s M23 rebel conflict that has displaced more than 1.9 million people. – Reuters

Suspected jihadists killed 39 civilians, including women and children, in two separate attacks in western Niger’s conflict-torn borderlands in recent days, the defence ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger will have a six-month grace period after their scheduled exit from West Africa’s main political and economic group next month during which the ECOWAS bloc will try to persuade them to stay, the bloc’s leaders agreed on Sunday. – Reuters

Ghana’s President-elect John Dramani Mahama has said he will not abandon the country’s $3 billion rescue package with the International Monetary Fund, but wants to review the deal to tackle wasteful state spending and upgrade the energy sector. – Reuters

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces attacked the main still-functioning hospital in al-Fashir, in Sudan’s North Darfur state on Friday, killing nine people and injuring 20, according to a local health official and activists. – Reuters

A Sudanese man accused of ordering thousands of pro-government Janjaweed militia to carry out atrocities including murder and rape in Sudan’s Darfur region told judges at the International Criminal Court on Friday that they had the wrong man. – Reuters

Turkey can step in to resolve disputes between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates, President Tayyip Erdogan told the head of Sudan’s sovereign council Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in a phone call on Friday, the Turkish presidency said. – Reuters

The Americas

Venezuela’s security services detained at least 150 adolescents as security forces broke up protests against the country’s strongman, President Nicolás Maduro, after he declared victory in a July 28 election rejected as fraudulent by the opposition, electoral observers and several governments. At least seven teenagers remained in prison Saturday morning, in what lawyers say is an unprecedented intimidation tactic designed to squelch dissent. – Wall Street Journal

Demonstrations have rocked Bolivia for more than two months. A longstanding political rivalry has boiled over, with supporters of the president and his chief opponent clashing in the streets. Protests have blocked the movement of goods, exacerbating fuel shortages. Some Bolivians lined up for days to buy gas. – New York Times

Brazilian police on Saturday arrested Gen. Walter Braga Netto, a close ally of former President Jair Bolsonaro and his running mate in 2022, according to a police official, accusing him of meddling in their investigation into a plot to stage a coup after Mr. Bolsonaro lost the election. – New York Times

Mr. Milei, whose grandparents emigrated from Italy to Argentina, received the citizenship because of his bloodline, Italy’s foreign ministry said this week. The announcement sparked some anger among critics of the government in Italy, who have long opposed Italy’s citizenship law for allowing people with distant Italian ancestry to get an Italian passport. – New York Times

Argentina’s government said on Friday it strongly rejected what it called the arbitrary and unjustified detention of a non-commissioned officer of the country’s Gendarmeria, a national security force, in Venezuela. – Reuters

North America`

Ottawa and the provinces will respond robustly if the incoming U.S. administration goes ahead with a promise to impose tariffs on imports from Canada, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said on Friday. – Reuters

The U.S. Department of Agriculture late on Friday walked back comments that it could resume imports of Mexican cattle before year-end holidays, after it suspended shipments last month due to the discovery of New World screwworm in Mexico. – Reuters

 Juan Pablo Spinetto writes: The good news is that several factors play in Yucatán’s favor: it’s still relatively isolated and scarcely populated, the political commitment to security has transcended several administrations and its culture dates back centuries, reinforcing a sincere appreciation for its historical and natural endowment (unlike Cancún, a government-led project that started in the 1970s).  Yet if this pace of development continues, 20 or 30 years from now, Yucatán will likely be radically different. The time to act is now. – Bloomberg

Nicholas Sargen writes: It is too early to tell how these developments will play out, but one thing is clear: If Mexico and Canada were to retaliate, the most visible impact on the U.S. would be higher oil and gas prices. The cost for Mexico and Canada, however, would be considerably greater because of their high dependence on the U.S. market. My bottom line is that investors and business leaders may not take Trump’s threats at face value, but it would be a mistake to dismiss them altogether. If Trump proceeds down the path he is advocating, his actions could have unforeseen consequences for the global economy. – The Hill

United States

Republican and Democratic U.S. senators say it is too soon to consider lifting sanctions on Syria following the removal of President Bashar al-Assad, an indication that Washington is unlikely to change its policy any time soon. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris made a rare post-election joint appearance on Sunday to thank donors who raised more than $2 billion during the unsuccessful 2024 election cycle, and to urge Democrats to keep fighting for their values. – Reuters

Officials from the White House, FBI and DHS on Saturday stressed that most of the recent reported drone sightings in New Jersey and nearby states involved manned aircraft, and there was no evidence of any national security threat. – Reuters

President Joe Biden plans to take action on land protections, clemency and artificial intelligence in the final weeks of his administration, according to a memo to allies, as he looks to codify his legacy before Donald Trump’s inauguration. – Bloomberg

Shuli Ren writes: After years of de-coupling, Trump’s bargaining chips over China have diminished. The US accounts for 15% of its exports now, versus 20% a decade earlier. However, a hostile White House can still corner Xi and force him to look inward and not overly rely on exports for growth. If that becomes reality, the optimists among us might say that Trump is a great patriot of China, forcing a reluctant government to deepen economic reforms and leapfrog the nation out of its middle-income trap. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

Serbian officials installed homegrown spyware on the phones of dozens of journalists and activists, Amnesty International said in a report released on Monday, citing digital forensic evidence and testimony from activists who said they were hacked in recent months. – Reuters

Baron Martin, a 20-year-old resident of Tucson, Arizona, was arrested Wednesday on charges of producing child sexual abuse material and cyberstalking. His arrest is connected to his involvement in online terror networks, specifically 764 and CVLT, which are known for violent extremist activities. – CyberScoop

More than 240,000 people had information stolen during a cyberattack on SRP Federal Credit Union, one of the largest in South Carolina. – The Record

The U.S. Justice Department on Thursday said it took down the popular cybercriminal marketplace Rydox and requested the extradition of two Kosovo nationals responsible for running it. – The Record

Germany’s cybersecurity agency reported on Thursday that at least 30,000 internet-connected devices sold across the country were infected with pre-installed malware known as BadBox. – The Record

The Ukrainian security service (SBU) has uncovered a new suspected espionage campaign by Russian intelligence services involving the recruitment of Ukrainian teenagers for criminal activities disguised as “quest games.” – The Record

Defense

The United Launch Alliance, a longtime government spacelift provider, has an incremental plan to upgrade its Centaur V upper stage to fly long-duration space missions. – Defense News

The Army and Navy on Thursday completed a successful all-up round test of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body, potentially paving the way for the services to begin fielding the long-awaited system. – Defense News

The Japanese government has selected a new U.S.-built basic trainer aircraft and associated ground equipment for its air force’s pilot training program. – Defense News

Marines in the service’s newest fighting formation will field a more rugged and capable mobile command vehicle on one of its newest ground vehicles in January. – Military Times

The Constellation-class frigate’s design should be mature enough for the shipbuilder to enter continuous production by May, the Navy’s top acquisition executive said this week. – USNI News