Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
U.S. diplomats in region push Gaza ceasefire deal, Syrian transition Paraguay opens Israel embassy in Jerusalem after moving it from Tel Aviv IDF sees chance for strikes on Iran nuke sites after knocking out Syria air defenses JPost Editorial: Movement on hostage deals give rays of hope, slipping through the cracks Trump team weighs options, including airstrikes, to stop Iran's nuclear program WINEP’s Michael Knights: Don’t assume Iran's supply lines to Hezbollah are cut Russia nears deal with new Syria leaders to keep army bases IAEA's 35-nation Board condemns attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure Assad’s collapse triggers race to find missing chemical weapons Bloomberg’s Marc Champion: Syria may not be America's fight, but allies need it Power vacuum in South Korea, a key U.S. ally, raises security concerns Breaking silence on possible drills, China says will not be soft on Taiwan independence activitiesIn The News
Israel
The Biden administration is pulling out all the stops to achieve a long-elusive ceasefire deal in Gaza and says the incoming team of President-elect Donald Trump is cooperating to help make that happen. – Washington Post
Pope Francis met Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at the Vatican on Thursday, their first face-to-face encounter in three years, as the pontiff has become more vocal in his criticism of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. – Reuters
Paraguay formally opened its new Jerusalem embassy in Israel on Thursday in a ceremony attended by President Santiago Peña and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following a back-and-forth struggle over the diplomatic seat that kicked off in 2018. – Reuters
The IDF air force’s attacks on more than 500 targets of Syria’s military assets in a 48-hour period this week since the fall of the Assad regime have permanently and radically altered the threat that any future Syrian regime can pose to the State of Israel, the IDF said on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Israel has warned Palestinian Authority officials over a recent Palestinian Security Services operation in Jenin, Channel 12 reported Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF killed a department head in Hamas‘ Manufacturing Headquarters, a company commander in the Zeitoun Battalion, as well as several terrorists operating within a command center in what used to be the Al-Hurriya School in Gaza City, it announced on Thursday evening. – Jerusalem Post
While recovering at the hospital after having a pacemaker fitted in the summer of 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was warned by security chiefs that Israel appeared increasingly vulnerable to attack, with the country’s foes viewing the deep societal strains over the government’s judicial overhaul push as an opportune time to strike, according to an investigative television report aired Thursday. – Times of Israel
The Israel Defense Forces believes that following the weakening of Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East and the dramatic fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, there is an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, military officials said Thursday. – Times of Israel
The Palestinian terrorist group Hamas has welcomed Ireland’s decision to formally join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), calling on other states to follow Dublin’s lead. – Algemeiner
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the citizens of Iran Thursday evening, in light of the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, and emphasized that “Israel wants peace. We want peace with all those who truly want peace with us.” – Ynet
Editorial: Mr. Netanyahu made that point in court. Some of the charges relate to accusations that he bestowed regulatory favors and other benefits in exchange for, among other gifts, cigars. He testified that “sometimes I even indulge in a cigar, although I can’t even finish it all at once, because I’m having so many meetings and briefings.” A consensus is growing that Mr. Netanyahu’s determination to continue the battle contributed to Syria’s liberation. – New York Sun
Editorial: With Hamas in Gaza largely defanged as evidenced by its desperate rocket launches on Wednesday to flex muscle ahead of negotiations – and with Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran showing no interest or capacity to come to its aid, the chances of brokering a deal now appear better than in recent weeks. The addition of Trump’s deadline, accompanied by a clear warning, adds further pressure. While these developments are encouraging, the hard and painful truth remains that a hostage deal with Hamas can only be believed when seen. – Jerusalem Post
Efraim Sneh writes: There’s also a unique opportunity for regional cooperation in the civilian arena. The UAE is expected to lead a regional coalition for Syria’s reconstruction – a massive project that includes repatriating millions of Syrian refugees. Israel could offer its involvement. While this might sound far-fetched, anything is possible in the Middle East — not only for the worse but also for the better. As Syria’s most economically and militarily powerful neighbor, Israel could be a significant asset to the new Syria in both respects. – Ynet
Iran
President-elect Donald Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, a move that would break with the longstanding policy of containing Tehran with diplomacy and sanctions. – Wall Street Journal
Iran has agreed to tougher monitoring by the U.N. nuclear watchdog at its Fordow site dug into a mountain after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade there, the watchdog said on Thursday in a report seen by Reuters. – Reuters
Iran’s capital and outlying provinces have faced rolling power blackouts for weeks in October and November, with electricity cuts disrupting people’s lives and businesses. And while several factors are likely involved, some suspect cryptocurrency mining has played a role in the outages. – Associated Press
Iranian authorities are prosecuting a female singer for live streaming her own performance while defying religious dress codes — the latest sign that women continue to challenge the Islamic Republic as it faces pressure at home and abroad. – Bloomberg
Yaakov Katz writes: All this means Iran is today weak, isolated, and vulnerable. Israel, whether on its own or in coordination with the United States, has a unique and historic opportunity to, once and for all, remove the primary threat that it has warned about for more than 20 years—Iran’s nuclear program. This window of opportunity is not unlimited. If Israel or the U.S. fail to act, Iran will rebuild its proxy armies, it will continue to fortify its installations and could very easily take the final steps and build a nuclear bomb. If there was ever a time to act, that time is now. – Newsweek
Michael Knights writes: Under Assad, there was a clear “address” when international authorities needed to use Syrian ports and airports for aid deliveries or other nonmilitary purposes, but this is less apparent now. Accordingly, the United States and Israel should carefully reconsider how to monitor and limit Iran’s air and sea bridges to Syria and Lebanon. As part of this process, they could encourage Arab states to strongly pressure Syria’s transitional government on barring airspace access to Iranian flights bound for Syria or Lebanon. – Washington Institute
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: The IAEA ultimately conducted a limited visit at the site in 2015, visiting Taleghan 1 and finding it empty. […] The IAEA stated: “The results identified two particles that appear to be chemically man-modified particles of natural uranium. This small number of particles with such elemental composition and morphology is not sufficient to indicate a connection with the use of nuclear material.” – Institute for Science and International Security
Russia & Ukraine
The outlines of President-elect Donald Trump’s initial efforts to end the war in Ukraine from his visit to Europe last week are starting to emerge for the first time. The main takeaway: Europe would have to shoulder most of the burden of supporting Kyiv with troops to oversee a cease-fire and weapons to deter Russia. – Wall Street Journal
The spy at the front of the cabin drew open the curtain. Wearing a sand-colored jacket and brown shoes, with a salt-and-pepper goatee, the man had spent the past few hours organizing the final preparations for the largest East-West prisoner swap since the Cold War. – Wall Street Journal
Russian President Vladimir Putin backs Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s efforts to achieve a Christmas ceasefire in Ukraine and a major exchange of prisoners of war, the Kremlin said on Thursday, even though Kyiv has scoffed at the idea. – Reuters
The administration of Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden announced another package of weapons aid for Ukraine on Thursday, valued at $500 million, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement. – Reuters
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he met soldiers in the frontline southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, as Russia steps up pressure on what had been a relatively calm part of the battlefield. – Reuters
The U.N. nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution on Thursday condemning attacks, on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, but failing to mention Russia as the culprit. – Reuters
NATO head Mark Rutte warned the U.S.-led transatlantic alliance on Thursday that it was not ready for the threats it would face from Russia in the coming years and called for a shift to a wartime mindset – with much higher defence spending. – Reuters
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry unveiled a new state agency for its armed forces last year. It was the government’s answer to the rampant corruption within the ministry’s procurement companies, and meant to be a driver of reform on the elusive path toward NATO membership. – Associated Press
Russia is nearing an agreement with Syria’s new leadership to keep two vital military bases in the Middle East state, a key objective of the Kremlin after the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad. – Bloomberg
Mikheil Saakashvili writes: I know Trump personally and have always rejected the “Russian collusion” theories. Trump, particularly after his decisive electoral victories, is the last person who would look up to Putin. Having also dealt with Putin directly, I know that Trump is an extremely uncomfortable adversary for him. This gives the U.S. a position of strength as it confronts a Russia bogged down in a draining war. If the incoming administration fully embraces America’s supremacy, I believe there is a genuine opportunity for peace through strength. – The Hill
Syria
The collapse of the House of Assad has exposed a seam of vulnerability for another autocrat, one of the former Syrian leader’s strongest allies: Russian President Vladimir Putin. – Wall Street Journal
In 53 years of Assad family rule, Syria’s government made chemical weapons by the ton, from giant vats of World War I-era mustard gas to nerve agents so deadly that just a few drops could kill. But by far the most worrisome Syrian weapons of mass destruction are the ones that simply disappeared. – Washington Post
As Syria’s new leaders take on the task of governing the country, world powers sent emissaries into the region on Thursday to begin trying to shape Syria’s future and their relations with the rebels who toppled Bashar al-Assad from the presidency. – New York Times
Syria’s new authorities said on Thursday that an American citizen who had been imprisoned while Bashar al-Assad was in power had been found outside Damascus and handed over to the rebel group that now controls the capital. – New York Times
Now covered in ashes and empty bullet casings, the grand mausoleum of ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s family stood in the eyes of rebels as a symbol of the injustice Syrians endured under their long rule. – Reuters
The head of the chemical weapons watchdog said on Thursday he would ask Syria’s new leaders to grant investigators access to the country to continue work identifying perpetrators of attacks that killed and injured thousands during the civil war. – Reuters
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was critical on Thursday of Israel’s military operations in Syria.Guterres’ spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, said in a statement that the UN chief is “deeply concerned” over “extensive violations” of Syrian sovereignty and Israeli strikes on the country. – Arutz Sheva
Marc Champion writes: If he cannot achieve his goals with help from Europe and Saudi Arabia, he’ll probably have to rely on Qatari money and deal with whichever external powers engage — including Russia and Iran. The path to success is narrow, but it’s surely worth the attempt. The alternative future for Syria isn’t neutral or benign; it’s that of a failed state that fragments along ethno-sectarian lines, becoming a battleground for outside powers and a petri dish for global jihadism. – Bloomberg
Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Washington should take the lead in the Syria diplomatic process and box out Moscow: If the U.S. is absent, Russia will cut a deal with any ruling authority. Now is the time to ensure Russia loses its military bases in Syria. Putin is halfway out the door from Syria. The U.S. can secure our interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and beyond by pushing him the rest of the way. – The Hill
Brahma Chellaney writes: The West has won the battle against Assad and delivered a strategic setback to his patron, Russia, whose interest long centered on maintaining its several military bases in Syria for power projection in the Middle East. But, having forgotten the lesson of 9/11 to shun the path of geopolitical expediency and focus on long-term interests, the West risks losing the already-flailing global war on terror, especially as the war’s fronts multiply as an unintended byproduct of its own policies. – The Hill
Turkey
Turkey’s current account remained in the black despite the end of the peak summer tourist season, suggesting the battered economy is stabilizing. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Turkey on Thursday for talks focused on a critical aspect of establishing stability in Syria: clashes in the north of the country between U.S.-backed Kurdish forces and Turkey-backed rebels. – Reuters
Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin was in Damascus on Thursday, two sources with knowledge of the visit told Reuters, for what the Syrian information ministry said would be talks involving its new rebel leadership. – Reuters
Middle East & North Africa
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Jordan’s King Abdullah on Thursday as President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration pushes for an inclusive transition in neighboring Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters
China’s foreign minister Wang Yi said Beijing agreed with Egypt that both nations should promote peace and negotiations to achieve stability in the Middle East, according to a media pool report. – Reuters
Since civil war erupted in Sudan last year, dozens of cargo planes from the United Arab Emirates have landed at a small airstrip in Chad that some U.N. experts and diplomats suspect is being used to funnel arms across the border into the conflict, flight data and satellite images show. – Reuters
Gol Kalev writes: Both are viewed as miracles; both invoke the clear simple choice that the nations of the world need to make, to either bless Israel or curse it. As evident in the Abraham Accords, many in the Middle East are choosing to bless Israel. Let’s hope that those in Europe and the West who choose otherwise will change course and be blessed themselves. – Jerusalem Post
Korean Peninsula
After all, the United States is South Korea’s closest security ally and President-elect Donald Trump has questioned why the United States is paying to defend faraway places. – Washington Post
Lee Suyoon, a 20-year-old student, was at home just outside of Seoul on Dec. 3, sharing late-night fried chicken dinner with her mother when her phone started buzzing. – New York Times
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said on Friday the best way to restore order in the country is to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, a day ahead of a planned parliamentary vote over Yoon’s short-lived imposition of martial law. – Reuters
The United States on Thursday offered a $5 million reward for information about an alleged scheme in which North Korean technology workers got jobs at unsuspecting U.S. companies then stole their trade secrets for ransom, with the proceeds used to fund Pyongyang’s weapons programs. – Reuters
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating slid to its lowest level since he took office as he tried to defend his declaration of martial law and push back against efforts to oust him via impeachment. – Bloomberg
Bruce E. Bechtol writes: This leads to the question, will these two entities now try to reconstitute themselves with the support of the North Koreans (and others, including Iran)? One hopes that this outcome can be prevented, but it will take definitive action. With a key weapons consumer now out of power, North Korea will once again be looking to “sell its wares” throughout the Middle East. – National Interest
China
China’s leaders promised more government support for their struggling economy next year as they brace for the return of President-elect Donald Trump and another big showdown over trade. – Wall Street Journal
Despite being invited, Xi Jinping isn’t planning to attend Donald Trump’s inauguration next month, but he might send a senior official to represent him, according to people close to Beijing’s thinking. – Wall Street Journal
China’s defence ministry on Friday broke its silence about days of military activities around Taiwan, saying it was up to China to decide whether or not to hold drills and the military would “not be absent” in fighting against separatist forces. – Reuters
China accused the Philippines on Friday of having “provoked trouble” in the South China Sea with U.S. backing, a week after Beijing and Manila traded accusations over a new confrontation in the disputed waters. – Reuters
A top trade adviser to President-elect Donald Trump told Reuters on Thursday that the new administration would not look “fondly” on any attempt by China to manipulate its currency, responding to a Reuters report that authorities there were considering allowing the yuan to weaken next year. – Reuters
Jason Foley and Jim Barnhart write: More ambitiously, the United States should reorient and align its foreign, commercial and development assistance through an American Private Sector Development initiative to support U.S. businesses of all sizes in the developing world. Foreign economic assistance must again become a vital tool of national security by empowering the American private sector. Only with this unity of purpose and resources does Washington have a chance to turn the tide against Beijing’s push for global domination. – The Hill
South Asia
The Taliban war hero scans the crowd, searching. From the back, he snatches a man with a flop of dusty hair and a face marred by shrapnel. – New York Times
A Pakistani court indicted imprisoned former prime minister Imran Khan and his wife on fresh charges of illegally selling state gifts on Thursday, local broadcaster Geo reported. – Reuters
Russia’s state oil firm Rosneft (ROSN.MM), has agreed to supply nearly 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to Indian private refiner Reliance (RELI.NS), in the biggest ever energy deal between the two countries, three sources familiar with the deal said. – Reuters
There has been a slight drop in the production of opium in Myanmar, the world’s biggest source of the illicit drug from which heroin is derived, experts from the United Nations said Thursday, while warning of strong prospects for future expansion of the deadly trade. – Associated Press
Thousands of people attended the funeral on Thursday of a Taliban minister killed in a suicide bombing in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, the day before that was claimed by the Islamic State group. – Associated Press
Asia
The New Zealand government said on Friday it will pass legislation next year to prevent entities that “do not share the country’s values” from using it as a base to monitor satellites. – Reuters
A Hong Kong court convicted on Thursday prominent former pro-democracy lawmaker Lam Cheuk-ting for rioting after he was attacked by a white-shirted mob in July 2019 at the height of that year’s pro-democracy protests. – Reuters
Taiwan’s defence ministry on Thursday closed an emergency response centre opened earlier this week in response to what it said were stepped up Chinese military activities nearby, likely signalling an end to Beijing’s manoeuvres. – Reuters
The European Union revoked a visa-free travel agreement with a country over its ‘golden passport’ program for the first time on Thursday, ending the deal with the Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu due to concerns over its scheme. – Reuters
The U.S. will prohibit the issuing of visas for about 20 people responsible for “undermining democracy in Georgia,” including government ministers, parliament members and security officials, the State Department said on Thursday. – Reuters
Karishma Vaswani writes: The signs are pointing toward an eventual inclusion. In mid-November, the alliance reportedly held its first meeting in Japan with senior enlisted personnel of all members. These efforts should continue, to help pave the way for a complete integration in the future. Beijing will see including Tokyo in the global spy club as yet another way for the West to try to contain China. But in a world increasingly lacking in leadership, the intelligence-sharing network could help prevent crises before they begin. – Bloomberg
Stephan Pechdimaldji writes: Being inconsistent with genocide allegations sets a dangerous precedent. It denies victims proper justice and essentially says that genocides are not all created equal. If the ICC wants any credibility over their recent arrest warrants of Israeli and Hamas leaders, then they must be consistent in how they interpret and enforce the law. They can start by turning their attention to Azerbaijan. – Newsweek
Europe
Moldova’s parliament voted early on Friday to impose a national state of emergency for 60 days starting on Dec. 16 due to an expected cut-off of Russian gas supplies from Jan. 1. – Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron has postponed the nomination of a new prime minister until Friday morning, his office said on Thursday. – Reuters
Lithuania’s new centre-left government took office on Thursday, led by Social Democrat Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas and including a party whose leader is on trial accused of antisemitic statements. – Reuters
Poland has no plans to send troops to neighbouring Ukraine, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Thursday, amid speculation that Western powers could put boots on the ground there if a ceasefire is reached with Russia. – Reuters
Some European Union countries on Thursday doubled down on their decision to rapidly halt asylum procedures for Syrian migrants in Europe, but said that it was too early to consider sending any of the hundreds of thousands of people who have fled since 2011 back home. – Associated Press
Belarusian authorities have arrested seven journalists who worked for an independent regional news outlet, a media watchdog said Thursday, the latest move in a sweeping crackdown on dissent and freedom of speech by the country’s authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko. – Associated Press
Hundreds of protesters led by university students held a noisy rally on Thursday outside Serbia’s state television headquarters despite the country’s president pledging to fulfil all their demands as he faced one of the most challenging threats to his populist rule. – Associated Press
Keir Starmer will attend a meeting of European Union leaders early next year, becoming the first U.K. prime minister to do so since the country’s departure from the bloc in 2020. – Associated Press
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union will give €170 million (approximately $180 million) to six countries bordering Russia and Belarus to aid their border protection efforts. – Newsweek
Africa
Somalia said on Thursday it had pulled federal troops out of the southwestern Lower Juba region, after clashes with local forces from Jubbaland state which has broken off ties with the central government. – Reuters
Zimbabwe’s Senate has approved a bill to abolish the death penalty, a key step in scrapping a law last used in the southern African nation nearly 20 years ago. – Associated Press
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday urged rich nations to honor their commitments to help the world’s poor countries fight climate change in a speech to Lesotho’s Parliament and repeated his hope that Africa would soon have permanent seats on the U.N. Security Council. – Associated Press
Niger’s ruling junta suspended the BBC for three months over the broadcaster’s coverage of an extremist attack that allegedly killed dozens of Nigerien soldiers and civilians, authorities said Thursday. – Associated Press
Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland on Thursday swore in its new president after last month’s election that gave a boost for the region’s push for international recognition. The ceremony came a day after Somalia and Ethiopia agreed in Turkey to hold “technical talks” over a dispute sparked by a deal Somaliland made with Ethiopia. – Associated Press
The Americas
The Canadian government is weighing an export tax on certain commodities to the U.S. if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills his pledge of slapping a 25% tariff on all Canadian imports, according to a person familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal
Venezuelan authorities said on Thursday that they have released 103 people this week who had been arrested amid anti-government protests following last July’s contested presidential election. – Reuters
Human Rights Watch expressed concerns on Thursday about two new laws in El Salvador related to cybersecurity and data protection, which the group said could threaten freedom of speech and of the press, as well as privacy. – Reuters
Haiti’s prime minister held his first press conference Thursday since being appointed more than a month ago to oversee the troubled Caribbean country reeling from recent massacres as Haitians demand government protection. – Associated Press
A prominent human rights attorney has quietly parted ways with the International Criminal Court to protest what he sees as an unjustified failure of its chief prosecutor to indict members of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro ’s government for crimes against humanity, The Associated Press has learned. – Associated Press
United States
Amazon.com is planning a $1 million donation to President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural fund, as founder Jeff Bezos and other tech leaders shore up ties with the incoming administration. – Wall Street Journal
The police chief for the University of California at Los Angeles, who was criticized for the handling of a violent mob attack in May on pro-Palestinian activists encamped at UCLA, has left the campus police department. – Reuters
The U.S. Department of Energy said Thursday that $365 million is available to install solar and battery storage systems in homes and healthcare centers across Puerto Rico. – Associated Press
TIME Magazine officially named President-elect Donald Trump as its “Person of the Year,” via an announcement on X/Twitter on Thursday. In his exclusive interview with the publication, Trump discussed moves to bring the war in Gaza to an end, as well as extend the Abraham Accords to several other Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. – Jerusalem Post
Cybersecurity
The Justice Department announced Thursday that it had participated in a coordinated effort to seize and dismantle Rydox, an online marketplace for stolen personal information and cybercrime tools. The operation led to the arrest of three individuals alleged to be the site’s administrators. – Cyberscoop
Abiola Kayode, a 37-year-old Nigerian national, has been extradited from Ghana to the United States to face charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud. – Cyberscoop
Kremlin-backed hackers have turned to an unconventional tactic to target Ukraine’s military, researchers have found. In a recent campaign, the group known as Secret Blizzard hijacked tools and infrastructure from Russian cybercriminals, repurposing them for espionage. – The Record
Defense
A handful of operational U.S. Army brigades now have a tool to “see” how they and enemy forces look in the otherwise invisible electromagnetic spectrum. – Defense News
The US, its allies and partners must change their air forces to cope with China’s enormous missile force that could cripple air bases throughout the Indo-Pacific for up to 12 days in event of war, according to a new report by the Stimson Center. – Breaking Defense
Brandon J. Weichert writes: Tomahawk cruise missiles enhance strategic deterrence because their long-range precision strike capability serves (or, rather, it did) as a deterrent against possible aggressors. Because these missiles can be launched from a variety of platforms, U.S. naval power is enhanced. Further, the United States can signal intent without ever actually escalating to high levels of conflict, providing a measured response. Sadly, the Tomahawk is not the dominant system it once was. In fact, America’s enemies either have or are actively working on ways to undermine the United States. – National Interest