Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Trucks carrying goods from Jordan crossed into the West Bank for the first time in months on Wednesday, after Israel said it would reopen a key land bridge with its neighbor, including for aid and other cargo bound for the Gaza Strip. – Washington Post

Trump administration officials have held advanced discussions on hitting U.N. Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA with terrorism-related sanctions, said two sources with direct knowledge of the matter, prompting serious legal and humanitarian concerns inside the State Department. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that an announcement about which world leaders will serve on the Gaza Board of Peace should be made early next year. – Reuters

Taiwan’s high-profile Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu made a previously unpublicised visit to Israel recently, three sources familiar with the trip told Reuters, at a time when Taiwan is looking to the country for defence cooperation. – Reuters

Groups operating from Israeli-held areas of Gaza say they will continue to fight Hamas despite the killing of their most prominent commander, reporting more recruits since an October ceasefire as they eye a role in the enclave’s future. – Reuters

Israel has given final approval for 764 housing units to be built in three settlements in the occupied West Bank, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Wednesday, a move condemned by the Palestinian Authority as undermining regional peace efforts. – Reuters

The body of the last Thai national held hostage in Gaza since the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel was returned home on Wednesday, Thailand’s foreign ministry said. – Agence France-Presse

Amnesty International released a report on Thursday accusing Hamas of crimes against humanity, including murder and torture, for the October 7 massacre and the treatment of the hostages taken. – Jerusalem Post

Hamas terrorists deliberately hid baby formula over the past six months in clandestine warehouses belonging to Hamas’s Health Ministry, Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib accused on X/Twitter on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

Mossad Director David Barnea on Wednesday appointed “A” as his new deputy chief, signalling strong efforts to stabilize the agency as it transitions to new leadership. – Jerusalem Post

The IDF is carrying out a preventive arrest and interrogation campaign against Hamas operatives in Judea and Samaria ahead of the terrorist organization’s Foundation Day this Sunday, aiming to ensure Hamas “cannot raise its head.” – Arutz Sheva

Israel is increasingly frustrated by what it sees as insufficient Lebanese action to disarm Hezbollah. Israeli officials warn that the terrorist group is rebuilding “on all fronts” and are sending an explicit message that Israel will not “wait forever.” – Ynet

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, one of Israel’s sharpest critics in Europe, met on Wednesday in Madrid with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who is visiting Spain, and used a joint news conference to again accuse Israel of genocide in Gaza. – Ynet

Israel has delivered new intelligence to Gaza ceasefire mediators in Cairo in an effort to locate and recover the remains of Sgt. First Class Ran Gvili, a police officer abducted by Palestinian terrorists during the October 7 terrorist attack and still missing, despite claims by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist group that it has released all captives. – Ynet

Editorial: The NGO Monitor report notes that “instead of disclosing the coercive conditions under which they operate, NGOs consistently omit or downplay Hamas’ violations.” Anyone who has followed the Gaza war knows this. The question now is whether the Trump Administration will let Gaza fall into this trap a second time. There is already pressure from Qatar, Turkey and Egypt to cooperate again with Hamas and re-establish the same NGO system. This would be nation-building—for Hamas. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: One final point deserves attention. Alkhatib said the hidden baby formula was stored in warehouses belonging to the Gaza Ministry of Health, the same ministry whose casualty figures are treated as indisputable fact by much of the international media. If that ministry conceals life-saving supplies to manufacture famine, why should anyone unquestioningly trust its numbers or its claims? The answer should be obvious. The tragedy is that, for many, it still isn’t. – Jerusalem Post

Elie Podeh writes: But to do so, Israel must first strengthen its bilateral relations with each of these countries. Signing the new gas deal with Egypt and a possible Netanyahu-Sisi meeting is a good example. No less important, Israel should adopt an active, non-confrontational policy on the Palestinian question in order to undercut the coalition’s shared denominator. Once the leaders of these states feel secure enough domestically, they will allow themselves to adopt separate, more friendly policies toward Israel – policies that align with their countries’ real interests. – Jerusalem Post

Amine Ayoub writes: Furthermore, any viable agreement must mandate intrusive, “anytime, anywhere” inspections by a force willing to engage kinetically if access is denied-a capability UNIFIL famously lacks. Finally, policy must explicitly reject any “dual-status” framework that allows Hamas members to “retire” into a civil administration while maintaining access to cached weaponry. – Arutz Sheva

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine is running out of money. Europe has a plan that would largely balance the books, win it a seat in the U.S.-led negotiations to end the war and equip Kyiv to seek better terms for peace. The problem: It can’t agree on putting it into action. – Wall Street Journal

Russia said on Thursday that Ukraine had launched a major aerial attack with at least 287 drones downed over a number of regions including Moscow. – Reuters

Russia’s capture of Pokrovsk appears to be a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’, and while its fall will not trigger a collapse in Ukraine’s defences, it weakens Kyiv at a sensitive juncture in U.S.-led negotiations to end the war. – Reuters

Russia on Wednesday said it was still awaiting a formal answer from Washington on President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to jointly stick to the last remaining Russian-U.S. arms control treaty, which expires in less than two months. – Reuters

Russian drones have hit the gas transport system in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, a senior Ukrainian official said on Wednesday, an area which contains several pipelines carrying U.S. liquefied natural gas to Ukraine from Greece. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday following a report from the head of Kyiv’s foreign intelligence service that Russia and China were taking steps to intensify cooperation. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump said he and European leaders discussed proposals to end the war in Ukraine in “pretty strong terms” Wednesday, adding that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “has to be realistic” about his country’s position on a peace plan. – Associated Press

The European Union’s enlargement chief said Wednesday she is confident Hungary will not derail Ukraine’s path to membership, which she described as “inevitable.” – Associated Press

Russia has practically achieved its military recruitment targets for this year set out by President Vladimir Putin after more than 400,000 people signed contracts, according to the deputy chairman of the country’s Security Council. – Bloomberg

Ukraine sent a revised peace plan to Washington as President Donald Trump held a call with European leaders, according to a person familiar, as both sides scramble to keep efforts on track to end Russia’s invasion. – Bloomberg

Editorial: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte last week urged allies to “accelerate our contributions” to the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL, which coordinates purchases of American weaponry for Kyiv. The Kiel report also underlines the debate in Europe about using a “reparations loan” to mobilize frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. This money could go toward much-needed weapons. Vladimir Putin respects strength. In his fashion, so does Mr. Trump. If Europe doesn’t want Russia to win, it has to act like it. – Wall Street Journal

Middle East & North Africa

Free trade talks between the United Arab Emirates and the European Union are advancing rapidly, UAE state minister Lana Nusseibeh said on Thursday at a briefing with an EU commissioner. – Reuters

The U.S. is in discussions with Turkey regarding Ankara’s rejoining the F-35 fighter jet programme and Washington hopes that talks will yield a breakthrough in the coming months, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The United States on Wednesday condemned the ongoing detention of current and former local staffers of the U.S. embassy in Yemen by the Houthi movement. – Reuters

A Bulgarian court on Wednesday rejected Lebanon’s request to extradite the owner of a ship linked to a cargo of ammonium nitrate at the center of the massive 2020 port explosion in Beirut. – Associated Press

At least 22 people have been killed and a further 16 injured after two buildings collapsed in the Moroccan city of Fez. – BBC

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon said Wednesday that its observers came under fire from Israeli troops in a tank a day earlier, during a patrol along the Blue Line close to the village of Sarda. – Times of Israel

Erfan Fard writes: Tensions between the regime and the Iranian public are reaching a breaking point. A nationwide uprising is possible at any moment. The Iranian nation is not waiting for foreign leaders to initiate change; the people themselves will redefine the future. The humiliating fall of the mullahs will mark the beginning of a new era. If the shifting winds of the Persian Gulf are recognized, and if Saudi Arabia and Israel take the first decisive steps, they can ensure that the post-Iran order leads to stability, not chaos. No red carpet appears after victory, but decisive leaders know when history is offering a golden opportunity. – Jerusalem Post

Pesach Wolicki writes: Hamas must be disarmed and removed from governing power before any transition begins, the ISF must exclude Turkey entirely, and the United States must stop pretending that the Muslim Brotherhood’s state sponsors are guardians of regional stability. Failure to do so will leave Hamas alive, entrenched, and internationally protected – and the Saudis and Emiratis alienated, with American and Israeli security suffering in the long and short terms. – Jerusalem Post

Ekrem Imamoglu writes: The country’s next chapter can be one of renewal. If it can restore its democracy and return competence and consistency to its foreign policy, Turkey can once again become what its geography and history equip it to be: a European power with global reach, an indispensable member of the transatlantic alliance, and a commercial, energy, and diplomatic hub connecting its Western allies with partners across the global South. That is how Turkey becomes a stabilizing force in a fractured world. And it is how Turkey honors its citizens, by ensuring that the credibility it earns abroad rests on the justice upheld at home. – Foreign Affairs

China

The U.S. invented the most powerful artificial-intelligence models and controls access to the most advanced computer chips, but China has an ace to play in the global AI contest. China now has the biggest power grid the world has ever seen. – Wall Street Journal

When a Chinese company bought the Dutch chipmaker Nexperia in 2019, its head quickly began plotting to move research and technology to China, according to the chipmaker’s former chief executive. – New York Times

China should allow its currency to strengthen and rely more on domestic consumer spending instead of ever-rising exports, International Monetary Fund officials said on Wednesday in Beijing at the end of a 10-day visit to China. – New York Times

Chinese telecoms equipment maker ZTE Corp may pay more than $1 billion to the U.S. government to resolve years-old allegations of foreign bribery, according to two people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

The Trump administration may have softened its language on China to maintain a fragile truce in their trade war, but Congress is charging ahead with more restrictions in a defense authorization bill that would deny Beijing investments in highly sensitive sectors and reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese biotechnology companies. – Associated Press

Editorial: In August the Administration let Nvidia sell its H20 chip to China, conditioned on Treasury getting a 15% cut. At least the Administration then claimed China had agreed to ease rare-earth magnet controls in return—only for Beijing to ratchet up restrictions on rare-earth exports again in October before the Xi-Trump trade truce a few weeks later. What is Mr. Trump getting from Beijing now besides better mood music before his planned visit to China in the spring? – Wall Street Journal

Joseph A. Bosco writes: Hopefully, the muddled Japan-China-Taiwan episode will encourage the Trump administration to make clear that Chinese aggression against Taiwan or other US allies will inevitably mean war with the United States, with all the dire consequences that will follow. By reversing Beijing’s incessant warnings that formal independence for Taiwan would precipitate war, the United States should advise Xi that the opposite dynamic could occur as well. Chinese military action against Taiwan will precipitate US recognition of Taiwan’s independence. It will be as counterproductive for the aggressor as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which brought Sweden and Finland into NATO. A potential catastrophe for China may be the only effective deterrent to its aggressive ambitions. – National Interest

Asia

Two U.S. B-52 bombers flew in formation with Japanese fighters over the Sea of Japan, a conspicuous display of U.S. support for Tokyo as it battles Chinese anger over remarks Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made about Taiwan.  – Wall Street Journal

In recent months, Thais living near the border with Cambodia have been reminded of a man-made danger that many thought had long receded. Both sides of the boundary — large parts of which are undefined — were once dotted with land mines, a legacy of the Cambodian civil war. Both countries ran demining operations for decades. – New York Times 

Fighting between Thailand and Cambodia entered its fourth day on Thursday as both sides waited for a promised telephone call from U.S. President Donald Trump, who says he believes he can again end the conflict between the two Southeast Asian nations. – Reuters

Australian authorities on Thursday demanded some of the world’s biggest social media platforms report how many accounts they have deactivated since a ban on accounts for children younger than 16 became law. – Associated Press

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi conveyed “grave concerns” over rising security tensions involving China and Russia during video meetings with NATO’s chief and Italy’s defense minister, in a sign of Tokyo’s efforts to gain support from a broader international community. – Bloomberg

China and Japan’s diplomatic spat shows no sign of an immediate offramp even as the leadership of a Japanese political party that helped break the ice in a previous dispute continues to talk with officials from Beijing behind the scenes. – Bloomberg

Indonesia is resisting US trade deal demands that it fears would restrain its independence, particularly in critical minerals and energy that risk its relations with China and Russia, according to people familiar with the situation. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Many countries view what the Aussies are doing as a pilot program worth studying. Malaysia and Indonesia have similar laws pending. The European Commission is working on an age verification mobile app, which Spain, France, Greece, Denmark and Italy are testing. In Washington, a bipartisan group of senators has proposed legislation barring social media for children under 13. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese acknowledges this process won’t be perfect. Ultimately, government policy can never substitute for good parenting. – Washington Post

Karishma Vaswani writes: This won’t be easy. There are compelling domestic incentives for both sides to let the fighting continue. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is using the conflict to tap nationalist sentiment before an election that could come as early as 2026. Cambodia’s most influential politician, Hun Sen, has exploited the violence to more closely reassert himself in politics, portraying himself as a national defender. […] But until Southeast Asia confronts its unresolved borders with some real determination, the war over a line on a map will remain a recurring threat the region can no longer afford. – Bloomberg

Africa

The alleged leader of a failed coup in Benin has sought refuge in neighbouring Togo, two Beninese government officials told Reuters on Wednesday, demanding his immediate extradition. – Reuters

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have entered the eastern Congo town of Uvira, near the Burundian border, in the biggest escalation in months of the long-running war, sources told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters

The U.S. will convene a meeting of officials from the Group of 20 major economies starting on Monday to kick off planning for next year, when it holds the group’s rotating presidency, sources familiar with the plans said. – Reuters

A Sudanese military aircraft crashed while attempting to land in the east of the country and killed all the crew members on board in the latest plane crash in the war-torn African nation, military officials said. – Associated Press

Rwanda-backed rebel group M23 said that it had taken control of the strategic city of Uvira in eastern Congo on Wednesday afternoon, following a rapid offensive since the start of the month and on the heels of a U.S. attempt to quell violence from the conflict. – Associated Press

Extremist groups competing for territory across West Africa could turn the region into a fluid insurgency corridor spanning roughly the distance from London to Rome and spark even more violence. – Bloomberg

The US and Uganda have agreed on a $1.7 billion health financing, part of a program that seeks to wean African nations off aid. – Bloomberg

North America

Canada is the latest country to roll out the welcome mat to highly skilled workers and scientists as the United States restricts immigration and cuts research funding under President Donald Trump. – Washington Post

Mexico’s Senate on Wednesday approved tariff hikes of up to 50% next year on imports from China and several other Asian countries, aiming to bolster local industry despite opposition from business groups. – Reuters

Canada’s ambassador to Washington Kirsten Hillman has announced she will be stepping down in the new year – a key departure as trade talks between the US and Canada remain stalled. – BBC

Cybersecurity

The European Union’s second-highest court reduced an antitrust fine by about 140 million euros ($162.8 million) that EU officials had levied on Intel over what it alleged was abuse of dominance in the market for microprocessors. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. agencies warned critical infrastructure organizations this week of attacks launched by multiple Russian groups backed financially by the country’s government. – The Record

A cyberattack that forced Russia’s flagship airline to cancel dozens of flights this summer was linked to a little-known Moscow software developer that had maintained access to the carrier’s internal systems, according to a new investigation. – The Record

A bipartisan pair of U.S. senators on Wednesday reintroduced legislation meant to help commercial satellite providers defend their networks against digital threats. – The Record

Chris Miller writes: America’s leading chip firms want looser rules, but U.S. AI giants, who benefit from weaker Chinese competitors, have powerful political voices, too. On top of a bipartisan congressional consensus, now a significant share of America’s AI industry is coming to realize that selling advanced chips to China threatens not only national security, but also their business. – Washington Post

Joseph Nichol writes: This small tactical advantage exists against a much larger strategic threat. Adversaries will adapt, as they always do, and the usefulness of the feature will narrow over time. Even so, it’s a step in the right direction. It makes certain patterns easier to see, but not without costs: it also chips away at anonymity for people who genuinely need it. Whether this tactical advantage can be turned into anything more strategic depends on how platforms and those researching or fighting political disinformation campaigns proceed to use it. – Jerusalem Post