Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas gain momentum, officials say Iran's power undiminished after Assad's fall in Syria, Revolutionary Guards commander says Domestic issues pile pressure on Iran’s president amid foreign policy setbacks Israel’s Smotrich says Trump offers chance to overthrow Iran Germany, UK and France say they are extremely concerned about Iran enrichment increase Zelenskiy seeks diplomatic end to Russia's war, floats role for foreign troops Iran condemns 'violation' of law after Israeli incursion into Golan buffer zone Qatar opens contacts with Syria's HTS group, source says China sends largest naval fleet in decades to region, threat level severe, Taiwan says WSJ Editorial: Biden takes an undeserved Syria victory lap The Free Press’ Eli Lake: Assad’s fall has humiliated Washington Here’s how the US is countering the Islamic State group during Syria’s upheavalIn The News
Israel
For the past year, Israel’s allies and enemies pressed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to limit his attacks on Iran and its partners in Lebanon and Syria, hoping to avoid a regional escalation […]Despite the Biden administration’s fears that such attacks might spiral beyond control, those operations strengthened Israel without drawing a sustained response from Iran, leaving many Israelis feeling vindicated. – New York Times
Cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and free the remaining hostages are quietly advancing behind the scenes, mediators and officials say, after the Israel-Hezbollah truce in Lebanon and pressure from President-elect Donald J. Trump. – New York Times
Israel is now more optimistic about a possible hostage deal in Gaza, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Monday, amid reports that Hamas had asked for lists of all hostages still held by militant groups in the Palestinian enclave. – Reuters
Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy warned on Monday during a visit to the region it would “not be a pretty day” if the hostages held in Gaza were not released before the U.S. President-elect’s inauguration. – Reuters
Some 60 Gaza workers for World Central Kitchen, the Washington-based food relief charity that has tussled with the Israeli military for months, have lost their jobs, Palestinian media reported, after failing an Israeli background check. – Bloomberg
Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s finance minister and inner security cabinet member, said the inauguration of Donald Trump next month offers Israel a chance to pursue several strategic goals: overthrow the government of Iran, prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state, and stop the rebuilding of Lebanese villages along Israel’s border. – Bloomberg
An identical message came both from municipal officials and the residents of Metulla and Kiryat Shmona: Rebuilding the area after 14 months of Hezbollah’s attacks is not a matter of months or a year, but likely five years. – Jerusalem Post
An Israeli man was arrested last month on suspicion of carrying out acts of vandalism on behalf of Iran, the latest in a series of plots involving Israeli citizens allegedly recruited by Iran that security agencies say have been foiled in recent months. – Times of Israel
Editorial: For decades, Netanyahu has positioned himself as the guarantor of Israel’s security and prosperity. Now, he must embody the same leadership qualities by transparently confronting the allegations against him. Testifying will not only allow him to present his version of events but also demonstrate a commitment to the democratic values he claims to uphold. – Jerusalem Post
Yossi Mansharoff writes: Prominent figures, regime mouthpieces, and propagandists are calling for a shift in Iran’s nuclear doctrine, advocating for nuclear weapons development to restore its deterrence capabilities, which have been severely weakened by recent events, including the unprecedented Israeli attacks in October 2024. Israel and the incoming US administration must urgently formulate a strategic plan addressing the security needs of both nations, given the swiftly and historic changing reality in Syria and its regional repercussions. – Jerusalem Post
Isaac Ben-Israel writes: One of the most striking conclusions from this conflict is that the integration of civilian and defense development mechanisms is a key to maintaining Israel’s technological superiority. This bridge between the innovative civilian world and the focused defense world must be further strengthened, and dual-use technologies must continue to be developed to ensure the future of Israel’s national security. – Jerusalem Post
Iran
Iran spent decades and billions of dollars building a network of militias and governments that allowed it to exercise political and military influence across the Middle East, and deter foreign attacks on its soil. In a matter of weeks, the pillars of that alliance came crashing down. – Wall Street Journal
The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic had not been weakened following the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Iranian media reported. – Reuters
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the latest in a string of foreign policy reversals for Iran including the weakening of its allies in Lebanon and Gaza, has coincided with growing domestic frustration over rising executions, planned increases in the price of petrol and a proposed law that imposes heavy fines and loss of access to public services to any woman not wearing the hijab. – The Guardian
Germany, Britain and France said on Monday they were “extremely concerned” about Iran’s acceleration in its capacity for enrichment of uranium, urging Iran to halt and reverse these steps. – Reuters
The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after rebel forces swept into Damascus this weekend, shattered Iran’s network of influence in the Middle East but Israel, the United States and Arab powers must now deal with the risk of instability and extremism from the mosaic of forces that replaces him. – Reuters
President-elect Donald Trump said Russia and Iran are in a “weakened state” and called on Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to end the nearly three-year war in Ukraine. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Will the Iranian people follow the Syrian example and topple their oppressors? If so, a liberated Iran could emerge as a more positive model than a jihadist-ruled Syria. – New York Sun
Iran spent decades building the so-called axis of resistance, its network of regional armed proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and allied state actors […]But the fall of the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Tehran, has done irreparable damage to the network, analysts say. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Kim Ghattas writes: The Syrian conflict is now proving to be the Achilles heel of the Iranian axis. An ally of the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979, the Assad regime called on Tehran to help quash the uprising. Hizbollah deployed thousands of men in Syria, transforming from a Lebanese political party and militant group into an Iranian expeditionary force. But Hizbollah’s fighting in the open in Syria for a decade exposed it to Israeli surveillance. This helped Israel’s recent military campaign, which decimated the group’s leadership and destroyed much of its capabilities. Iran’s hubris grew as it added another Arab capital under its control. But helping Damascus also stretched Tehran’s capabilities, siphoned off resources and exposed its vulnerabilities. – Financial Times
Russia & Ukraine
In the nearly three years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the messaging app Telegram has been a lifeline for millions of Ukrainians. It provides information about coming attacks and helps communities organize food, medical aid and other support. – New York Times
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made the case on Monday for a diplomatic settlement to Russia’s war in Ukraine and raised the idea of foreign troops being deployed in his country until it could join the NATO military alliance. – Reuters
Alexander J. Motyl writes: This, then, is what the Trump administration will face: not just a single, difficult, and possibly intractable individual who claims to be president, but a ramified system of beliefs and practices that are united by their hostility toward Ukraine. Making a deal with a leader, regime, and country all rolled into one “collective Putin” won’t be easy, even for a consummate dealmaker. Trump may quickly realize that speaking softly with such an opponent makes no sense if Ukraine isn’t armed with a big stick. Words and threats won’t affect the collective Putin. Only actions will — and that means enabling Ukraine to win and thereby compel the unholy trinity to accept a genuine peace. – The Hill
Walter Clemens writes: Far away and a bit too close to Guantanamo, Cuba might be a good retirement venue. An outdoor type who enjoys fishing and splashing in the waves, Putin could bring with him the keys to many accounts probably storing multiple billions of dollars. The Cuban military and security forces have protected the leadership against dozens of Yanqui conspiracies for 65 years, Surely, they could defend Putin and his entourage? It’s very clearly a better option than Belarus, Iran, or North Korea. And if the old friendship with “the Donald” returns, a visit to Mar-a-Lado might someday be on the cards. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Kseniya Kirillova writes: Now, such abuse has a new element. Correspondents report that in one unit “hostages were discovered whom the commanders beat and humiliated, and for months received millions of rubles from their service cards.” Not that most will live long enough to enjoy any payment at all. Kashevarova records that the median lifespan of an assault trooper is now 12-17 days from the moment a contract is signed. The war has become an extremely unprofitable business in every sense. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Thomas E. Graham writes: However, the two countries will also want to talk about strategic stability, such as the Middle East, the Arctic, Northeast Asia, and energy markets, among other things. This will not mark a reset in relations. No one should suffer under the illusion that a strategic partnership is possible. But it will mark an effort to transform the current bitter adversarial relationship, which is fraught with the risk of direct military confrontation, into a relationship of competitive coexistence or constructive rivalry, starting with Europe. That could lay the foundation for a stable structure of security in Europe and an enduring resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian war. – National Interest
Hezbollah
Lebanon’s Hezbollah views events in Syria as a “major, dangerous and new transformation”, a senior Hezbollah politician said on Monday, the Iran-backed group’s first reaction to the toppling of its ally Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters
Four Israeli soldiers who were killed in southern Lebanon were likely killed in an accidental detonation of explosives as they demolished a Hezbollah tunnel laden with weapons, Israel’s Army Radio reported on Monday. – Reuters
Oz Katerji writes: The rebirth and ultimate victory of the Syrian revolution marks a turning point, not just for Syria but for Lebanon, too, if it wishes to be anything more than an Iranian missile base—a moment in time when the Lebanese can follow on from Syria’s lead, seize control of their destiny, and permanently dismantle Hezbollah. – Foreign Policy
Syria
In the end, after 13 years of catastrophic civil war, Syria’s disparate opposition groups toppled the regime of Bashar al-Assad in little more than a week. Rebuilding the country, and resolving competing priorities among the rebels, will likely take much longer. – Wall Street Journal
Israel said it had destroyed chemical and other weapons caches in Syria and seized areas along the countries’ shared border, taking advantage of a power vacuum in Syria as it seeks to keep weapons out of the hands of Sunni Islamist rebels. – Wall Street Journal
Russia’s military bases in Syria were a major asset for Moscow before the Assad regime’s stunning collapse over the weekend. Now, they could be a major liability. – Washington Post
The Biden administration is scrambling to find ways to engage with groups in Syria and around the Middle East as victorious militias begin shaping the nation’s future after the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad, the longtime autocrat. – New York Times
An Israeli military incursion into Syria has reached about 25 km (16 miles) southwest of Damascus, Syrian security sources said on Tuesday, after Israel seized a buffer zone in southern Syria and launched air strikes on Syrian army and air bases overnight. – Reuters
The Israeli military on Tuesday denied reports that its tanks were advancing towards Damascus, insisting that Israeli forces were stationed in a buffer zone near the Israeli-Syrian border. – Agence France-Presse
United Nations Security Council members will work on a statement on Syria in the coming days, U.S. and Russian diplomats said on Monday, after a closed-door meeting over the rebel seizure of the capital Damascus and ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters
Israel will step up airstrikes on Syrian stores of advanced weaponry, Israeli officials said on Monday, and keep a “limited” troop presence on the ground, hoping to head off any threat that could emerge in the fallout of president Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow. – Reuters
An Israeli strike targeted an air defence installation near Syria’s Mediterranean Latakia port, Syrian security sources said on Monday. – Reuters
Palestinian group Hamas congratulated the Syrian people on Monday for achieving their “aspirations for freedom and justice” after toppling President Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters
The global chemical weapons watchdog said Monday that it reminded Syria of its obligations to comply with rules to safeguard certain toxic chemicals after rebels entered the capital Damascus over the weekend and overthrew Syrian President Bashar Assad. – Associated Press
Iran has condemned Israel’s incursion into a UN-patrolled buffer zone in the Golan Heights on the border with Syria as a “violation” of the law. – Agence France-Presse
Even the normally brash Donald Trump seems disconcerted by the volatile international situation he’ll inherit as the new president next month and to which he’s certain to inject new unpredictability […]The stunning fall of the al-Assad dynasty in Syria on Sunday created new and treacherous circumstances that will demand Trump’s attention – CNN
The United Nations accused Israel on Monday of having violated the 1974 Disengagement Agreement with Syria, after Jerusalem informed the UN Security Council that it had taken “limited and temporary measures” in a demilitarized strip on the border in Syrian territory to counter any threats to the Israeli Golan Heights. – Times of Israel
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan about the latest developments in Syria. Secretary Blinken discussed the need for a peaceful transition of power through an inclusive, Syrian-led process in the spirit of UN Security Council Resolution 2254. – State Department
Editorial: Trump knows Russia’s invasion of Ukraine played a role in Assad’s downfall as well, noting on social media that Moscow “lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever.” Now that Russia is feeling the sting of its strategic miscalculation, Trump can also help bring an end to that conflict. – Washington Examiner
Farah Stockman writes: If the group continues to respect religious minorities, U.S. officials should remove it from the terrorism list so that Syria’s new leaders can establish diplomatic relations with neighbors and begin to rebuild. It won’t be easy to fill the vacuum left by al-Assad. But a new, brighter chapter in Syria is possible if Americans are willing to let it take shape. – New York Times
Daniel Byman writes: U.S. leaders should work with allies to press H.T.S. on its commitment to stopping terrorism and ensuring human rights, work with regional partners like Turkey and Israel to discourage their meddling, and coordinate a broad humanitarian response. We all can hope that Syria is putting its horrific past behind it, but hope is not a policy. Brutal regimes and devastating civil wars have long legacies. A focused U.S. effort can alleviate some of Syria’s problems, even if it cannot solve them completely. – New York Times
Andreas Kluth writes: They should either drop or ignore the terrorist designation and bounty on HTS and Jolani, while staying ready to reimpose it if he takes a wrong turn. And they should offer help — giving money, striking enemies or even benignly standing aside — to make Jolani succeed in his stated quest of moderate Islamic nation-building. At this point, the only catastrophe would be to let the opportunity for this kind of success pass. – Bloomberg
Noah Ghussen writes: Rather than mischaracterizing Israel’s temporary security reinforcement as an invasion, activists should support Netanyahu’s statement of outreach: “We extend a hand of peace to all in Syria: Druze, Kurds, Christians, and Muslims who seek peace with Israel.” Progressives must demand accountability for Assad’s crimes – even posthumously if necessary – and advocate for justice for his victims. Without this, their activism remains performative, a hollow expression of principles not honestly held. – Jerusalem Post
Amit Sarusi writes: The underlying assumption is that a rebel-led Syria will weaken the Iranian axis and its proxies, which should benefit Israel since Iran is a primary adversary. Consequently, Israel’s security situation is expected to stabilize over time, positively influencing its economy. However, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions. It remains uncertain who will ultimately govern Syria and what their motives will be. The coming period will be critical for Israel to learn about its new neighbors. Who knows? Perhaps one day we’ll sit down for coffee together. – Jerusalem Post
Anchal Vohra writes: Hani Alagbar was beaming with joy and packing his bags on Sunday morning soon after Bashar al-Assad’s government was toppled by former al Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). He moved to Lebanon in 2012 at the height of the Syrian uprising and hasn’t been home since, not even to attend his father’s funeral. All these years he has worried he might be randomly arrested by the regime. – Foreign Policy
Turkey
Turkey is opening its Yayladagi border gate with Syria to manage the safe and voluntary return of the millions of Syrian migrants it hosts, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday, after President Bashar al-Assad’s sudden ouster by rebels. – Reuters
Hundreds of Syrian refugees gathered at two border crossings in southern Turkey on Monday, eagerly anticipating their return home following the fall of Bashar Assad’s government. – Associated Press
Of all the winners and losers from Syria’s sudden change of power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stands out as among those with the most to gain. – Bloomberg
Mordechai Kedar writes: A deal is expected to be drafted soon and when peace is obtained between Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, this will be another blow for Iran, which has been utilizing Armenia as its window to the outside world as it faces heavy international sanctions. A peace deal will close that option for Iran. If December 2024 has not been a bad enough month for Iran and its proxies, January 2025 might be even worse for them when Donald J. Trump begins his second term in the White House. – Jerusalem Post
Middle East & North Africa
Only weeks ago, Sunni Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, were trying to bring President Bashar al-Assad of Syria back into the fold, urging him to break with a weakened Iran. – New York Times
Qatari diplomats spoke with Syria’s leading rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, on Monday, an official briefed on the developments told Reuters, as regional states race to open contact with the group after its rapid offensive toppled Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters
The Trump Organization said Monday it has leased its brand to two new real estate projects in Saudi Arabia just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. – Associated Press
Suzanne Maloney writes: Netanyahu, for his part, has found that a maximalist military approach yields spectacular strategic dividends along with domestic political benefits. And there is no shortage of other spoilers in this combustible region. But even an ephemeral set of understandings could reduce the temperature in the Middle East. That would, in turn, enable Washington and the world to turn their attention to more daunting challenges—especially China and Russia. And any deal that stanches some of the bloodshed and reduces some of the risks, if only temporarily, just might earn Trump his much-desired Nobel Peace Prize. – Foreign Affairs
Korean Peninsula
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung credits a coup and stretch of military rule more than 40 years ago—during which soldiers opened fire on pro-democracy protesters in the southwestern city of Gwangju, killing many—with propelling him into politics. – Wall Street Journal
South Korean lawmakers passed a bill on Tuesday to appoint a special counsel to investigate President Yoon Suk Yeol’s botched attempt to impose martial law. – Reuters
South Korea’s main opposition party said on Tuesday it would pass a government budget bill for 2025 that triggered President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law decree last week, at a plenary session scheduled to be held later in the day. – Reuters
From trade and diplomacy to markets and budgets, South Korea struggled to contain the fallout from the president’s brief but shocking martial law attempt last week, just as the country navigates an uncertain future with its ally the United States. – Reuters
Michelle Kim writes: Last Tuesday, South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk-yeol, plunged the country into political chaos by declaring—and then withdrawing—martial law. This was the first time that martial law had been imposed since 1980, when President Chun Doo-hwan staged a coup and massacred thousands of democratic protestors at the Gwangju Uprising. For South Koreans, Yoon’s declaration was a rude awakening to the reality that the dark era of military dictatorship might not be a relic of the past. – Foreign Policy
China
This rust-belt hub helped fuel China’s economic rise. Now, it offers a view of China’s future—in which eroding growth collides with a ballooning elderly population and a shortfall in babies. – Wall Street Journal
Alarm is rising among multinational companies doing business with China about Beijing’s decision last week to order a trade embargo on the export of four critical minerals to the United States. – New York Times
China’s antimonopoly regulator announced on Monday that it was investigating potential violations of antitrust law by Nvidia, the American company that makes a vast majority of the computer chips that power artificial intelligence systems. – New York Times
South Asia
The U.S. State Department announced a slew of sanctions on Monday to mark International Anti-Corruption Day and the eve of Human Rights Day, targeting individuals from multiple countries, including the former CEO of SriLankan Airlines over Airbus (AIR.PA), purchases. – Reuters
India and Bangladesh said on Monday they would pursue constructive relations after months of tensions that have boiled over into protests and confrontations since the ousting of Dhaka’s last leader. – Reuters
An explosive device carried on a motorcycle by two suspected militants in restive southwestern Pakistan ignited prematurely near a police station Monday killing the suspects, police said. – Associated Press
One of the most powerful ethnic minority armed groups battling Myanmar’s army has claimed the capture of the last army outpost in the strategic western town of Maungdaw, gaining full control of the 271-kilometer (168-mile) -long border with Bangladesh. – Associated Press
Asia
China is deploying its largest navy fleet in regional waters in nearly three decades, posing a threat to Taiwan that is more pronounced than previous Chinese war games, the Taiwanese defence ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters
The first agreement signed under a trade initiative between Taiwan and the United States will come into force on Tuesday, both governments announced, as Taipei hopes a raft of ongoing talks will eventually lead to a free trade deal. – Reuters
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said on Tuesday that the country will continue its resupply missions in the South China Sea without the need to deploy the navy, despite a recent incident with Chinese vessels. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is in Japan on Tuesday to meet with Japanese officials and reaffirm the importance of their alliance and the U.S. commitment to regional security as threats rise from China and North Korea. – Associated Press
Europe
The dramatic fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad instantly intensified the debate across Europe and the Middle East over the world’s largest pool of refugees, with calls already accelerating for the millions of Syrians who fled their nation’s civil war to begin returning home. – Washington Post
Europe needs to find ways within the next year to fund hundreds of billions of euros in extra military spending to defend against any attack from Russia by the end of the decade, the European Union’s new defence commissioner has said. – Reuters
European countries put asylum applications from Syrians on hold until further notice on Monday after rebels seized the Syrian capital and President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia following 13 years of civil war. – Reuters
Cyprus and the U.S. said Monday that they’re doubling down on a joint effort to crack down on illicit finance with additional training of Cypriot law enforcement authorities to identify, investigate and prosecute financial crimes. – Associated Press
Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in Syria could spark a fresh migration crisis across Europe, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned, as Britain paused decisions on Syrian asylum claims. – Bloomberg
The UK and European Union will begin formal talks on a reset of their relationship next year, as Britain’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves said she wanted to deepen economic ties with the bloc to boost growth. – Bloomberg
European Union leaders are set to praise accession candidate Moldova’s “successful” presidential election and vow to continuing working with country, while they plan to express “serious concerns” about recent developments in Georgia amid a violent government crackdown on dissent. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Britain has said it is severely restricting its contacts with the Georgia government and blasted its “shocking” crackdown on journalists and pro-Western demonstrators, reflecting earlier moves by the United States and European Union. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
The Netherlands has stepped up checks at its borders with Germany and Belgium to stem illegal immigration into the country, Asylum and Migration Minister Marjolein Faber said on Monday. – DW
Mattia Ferraresi writes: But Europe is not what it was during Mr. Trump’s first term. Ms. Von der Leyen now leads the most right-wing European Commission in history and the bloc is shifting more and more toward conservative positions. With Ms. Meloni leading the way, Mr. Trump might find there’s something he likes in Europe other than golf. – New York Times
Eitvydas Bajarūnas writes: Despite a history of heavy reliance on Russian infrastructure and energy, the Baltic states have emerged as a model for countering hybrid threats. Their resilience underscores the value of strategic foresight and adaptability. Measures such as integrating with the European electricity grid will significantly reduce Russia’s influence, bolstering sovereignty and security. These efforts offer a roadmap for nations facing similar challenges, emphasizing the critical need to reduce dependencies and strengthen alliances. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
The Council of European Union on Monday renewed EU sanctions on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) for another year, extending them until Dec. 12, 2025, it said in a statement. – Reuters
Armed attackers on motorcycles killed at least 21 civilians in the West African nation of Niger, the army said. – Reuters
Prosecutors told the International Criminal Court on Monday that they were confident that two alleged leaders of a predominantly Christian rebel group in the Central African Republic were guilty of multiple counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity. – Associated Press
After African countries struggled to get testing kits during the COVID-19 pandemic, officials vowed to make the continent less dependent on imported medical supplies. Now, in a first for Africa, a Moroccan company is filling orders for mpox tests as an outbreak continues. – Associated Press
Nestled in eastern Congo’s Ituri province, the Chinese-run gold mine is rapidly encroaching on an area that many say it shouldn’t be operating in at all – the Okapi Wildlife Reserve, an endangered World Heritage site. – Associated Press
Latin America
Cage-like trucks fitted with iron bars that appear designed to carry livestock line up every morning at the border between Haiti and the Dominican Republic. – New York Times
The United Nations human rights watchdog has in part resumed its activities in Venezuela, its chief said on Monday, after it was forced to leave the country nearly 10 months ago following what the government described as a review of its activities. – Reuters
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday condemned gang violence and loss of life in Haiti, his spokesperson said, after more than 180 people were killed over the weekend in Haiti’s Cite Soleil area. – Reuters
Michael McKinley writes: Some Venezuela experts are recommending resigned accommodation to Maduro. But doing so would only entrench a repressive authoritarian regime at the expense of Venezuela’s long-suffering citizens. “Venezuela’s path forward is not about diplomacy with a dictator,” opposition leader Leopoldo López, also in exile, recently argued. “It’s about respecting the democratic mandate of its people.” – Washington Post
Brian Winter writes: Unlike China, the United States cannot order its companies to do business in Latin America and expect them to wait years for a profit—or simply to invest for geopolitical reasons. The past 30 years of U.S.-Latin American relations, seen in a different light, can be interpreted as an unglamorous but methodical construction of trade and other ties that have supported mutual economic growth, favored the strengthening of democracies, helped address challenges such as climate change, and promoted more equal relationships in the wake of the Cold War. Whether “benign neglect” will be replaced with something better during Trump’s second presidency remains to be seen. – Foreign Affairs
North America
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would retaliate with its own set of tariffs should President-elect Donald Trump follow through on his pledge to slap a 25% levy on imports from Canada. – Wall Street Journal
A week after Donald Trump’s election victory, two Mexican media executives flew to the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida so the president-elect could personally thank them for TelevisaUnivision’s Spanish-language coverage after Hispanic support shifted toward Republicans. – Wall Street Journal
Mexico’s president said Monday that much of the money gained by eliminating independent oversight and regulatory agencies will go to the army to fund a rise in soldiers’ pay. – Associated Press
A passenger on a domestic flight in Mexico who tried to divert an aircraft to the United States by force said that he was under threat by criminals who had kidnapped one of his relatives, authorities said. – Associated Press
United States
New York prosecutors charged a former tech worker on Monday night with allegedly killing UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson with a ghost gun outside a Midtown Manhattan hotel, according to court documents. – Wall Street Journal
A Jewish trustee of the University of Michigan awoke on Monday to find his window broken and anti-Israel graffiti on his wife’s car, the third time he has been the victim of vandalism related to the Israel-Hamas war. – Times of Israel
Editorial: The last time the Administration took a victory lap like this was right before Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. Mr. Sullivan wrote, “The region is quieter than it has been for decades,” thanks to Biden policy that “de-escalated crises in Gaza” and deterred Iranian aggression. Like Donald Trump, humility isn’t their strong suit. But on foreign policy the Biden team has much more to be humble about. – Wall Street Journal
Robert B. Zoellick writes: America’s AI innovation will be a powerful magnet for other countries; Arab states in the Persian Gulf are already seeking partnerships. Mr. Trump claims to know how to use this leverage to maximize the adoption of rules and deals that advance both the U.S. economy and national power. Mr. Trump needs an offensive trade agenda, not merely tariffs to defend the old order. He should foster a new type of negotiation that capitalizes on the country’s innovative spirit and technological advantages. He needs a nontariff digital and data trade agenda. – Wall Street Journal
Jason Rezaian writes: The Biden administration’s efforts are being led by the same people who won my release in 2016. There are people in Syria who know where Tice is. The U.S. government routinely says that the safety and liberty of American citizens is its greatest priority. With Assad in power, successive administrations were unwilling to fully engage to get Austin Tice out. But with Assad gone, our government has a new opportunity to prove it is as good as its word. – Washington Post
Eli Lake writes: Biden’s empty boast about Assad’s demise is a punchline. But his foreign policy was not an anomaly. He channeled the Obama-era conventional wisdom that captured a generation of Washington’s foreign policy elites. Their assumptions about Iran now lay bare and exposed for the world to see as the region realigns. And yet they remain in their perches on Congressional committees, at the best think tanks, and in the top op-ed pages. So it’s worth asking: What else might they be wrong about? – The Free Press
Cybersecurity
U.S. government agencies will hold a classified briefing for the House of Representatives on Tuesday on China’s alleged efforts known as Salt Typhoon to infiltrate American telecommunications companies and steal data about U.S. calls, officials said on Monday. – Reuters
Unlocking what pundits tout as the visionary potential of generative AI may require unprecedented amounts of electrical power, but it is unclear if our current energy infrastructure is up to the task. – CyberScoop
A newly formed ransomware group known as Termite has claimed responsibility for a ransomware attack on Blue Yonder, which disrupted operations at several major companies, including Starbucks and leading U.K. grocery chains Morrisons and Sainsbury’s. – CyberScoop
Suspected Russian hackers have been targeting Ukrainian military and defense enterprises in a new espionage campaign, according to a new report. – The Record
Defense
The shallow waters of the Baltic Sea have become a secondary arena of confrontation in the larger standoff between the East and the West. Fears of hybrid warfare, coupled with key vulnerabilities on both sides, make this narrow stretch of water one of the key areas to watch as hybrid warfare activities expand and NATO bolsters its eastern flank. – Defense News
Supply chain delays that have affected the Space Development Agency may be a precursor for broader industrial base challenges across the service’s satellite portfolio, according to a top Space Force official. – Defense News
The Pentagon is temporarily pausing flights again of its fleet of V-22 Ospreys after weakened metal components possibly played a role in another near crash, the latest setback for an embattled aircraft whose safety problems have grown. – Defense News
Nick Guertin and Jacob Glassman write: We must further the alignment and standardization of architectures like we have in hypersonics and next-generation aircraft. We must deploy these architectures to our R&D programs and test platforms to enable rapid transition of advanced capability from early development to a Program of Record (PoR) without major redesign and reconfiguration. We have done this before when duty called and we are well on our way. We need to take the lessons we see in the conflicts around the world to see MOSA as the critical combat capability of the 21st century. – Defense News
Peter Andrysiak and Bryan Quinn write: The need for U.S. European Command to rapidly adapt is clear. Yet, we are not resourced sufficiently to do so. Without modernized command and control for the operational commander, forces — even those modernized by the services — cannot be effectively employed on the battlefield. Continuing to rely on service-led solutions, far removed from the areas where conflict and competition occur, risks producing solutions that do not meet the demands of modern warfare, jeopardizing success in future conflicts. – War on the Rocks
Long War
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on Monday that Islamic State will try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in Syria, but said the United States is determined not to let that happen. – Reuters
A terror attack in New Zealand remains a “realistic possibility” over the next year as evolving global and domestic security trends continue to drive extremist sentiment, the country’s intelligence service said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Massive U.S. airstrikes on Islamic State militants in Syria were meant in part as a message to the group and a move to ensure that it doesn’t try to take advantage of the chaos following the overthrow of President Bashar Assad’s government. – Associated Press
Can a terrorist group change its ways? That’s the question top national security officials are pondering as they take stock of the Islamist insurgent group that led the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. – Politico
Devorah Margolin writes: Finally, as shown by U.S. involvement this week in an operation against IS in central Syria, Washington and its partners must take steps to counter the group’s insurgency throughout the country, not just in the northeast. This entails a proactive rather than reactive approach to combatting the group, preventing it from resurging and retaking territory in the first place. – Washington Institute