Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Toomaj Salehi is no stranger to controversy. Last year, the Iranian rapper was arrested for songs criticizing the government and denouncing those he described as apologists for the Iranian government abroad. – Washington Post 

The Iranian government has stepped up its efforts to kidnap and kill government officials, activists and journalists around the world, including in the United States, according to government documents and interviews with 15 officials in Washington, Europe and the Middle East, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. – Washington Post

Three Iranian teenagers are among 15 people who could face the death penalty over the killing of a pro-government paramilitary force member, the judiciary said Wednesday. – Associated Press 

Four people were sentenced to death on Wednesday by Iran’s judiciary for allegedly cooperating with the Israeli intelligence service and committing kidnappings, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. – Reuters 

Iran has arrested a third female journalist from the reformist newspaper Shargh against the backdrop of nationwide protests sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death, the daily said Wednesday. – Agence France-Presse  

A man was killed by security forces in Iran after he honked his car horn to celebrate the country’s World Cup loss to the US, a human rights group said Wednesday — as anti-government protests erupted across the country following the defeat. – New York Post 

The Iranian regime is “fundamentally” misunderstanding its own citizens by blaming outside actors for the protests raging throughout the country, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday. – CNN 

Iran has carried out several missile and drone strikes on the bases of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq in recent months. Tehran has labeled the exiled groups as “terrorist” and “separatist” organizations. Iranian officials have accused the groups of launching cross-border attacks against government forces. Tehran has even gone as far as threatening to invade Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region, where the groups are based. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Bobby Ghosh writes: Having failed to redeem themselves in the eyes of the protesters, the players must now face the wrath of the regime, which is unlikely to forgive or forget their demurral over the anthem — the more embarrassing to the Islamic Republic for having taken place on the world’s largest stage. Victory against the US, the “Great Satan” of the Islamic Republic’s official demonology,  might have earned the team some leniency from Khamenei and his kind. But since the regime is unable to make any propaganda hay from the World Cup, it will be tempted instead to make an example of the players for their defiance. – Bloomberg

Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, and Frederick W. Kagan write: The nature of the planned protests furthermore suggests that at least some protest organizers are adapting to more effectively counter regime repression. The Tehran Neighborhood Youth released on November 30 its own call for demonstrations on December 5-7 and offered more specific instructions. The group advised against simultaneous protests and strikes because the reduction in regular traffic caused by strikes allows security forces to more easily crack down. – Institute for the Study of War

Israel

The Israeli military said Wednesday it is temporarily removing a unit of ultra-Orthodox soldiers out of the occupied West Bank after a 78-year-old Palestinian-American man died following an arrest by its soldiers early this year. – Associated Press

Israeli forces killed two Palestinians in the occupied West Bank on Thursday, Palestinian officials said, in heavy clashes that erupted in the Jenin refugee camp during a pre-dawn raid. – Reuters

The top U.S. official on Palestinian affairs reaffirmed on Wednesday that Washington wanted to reopen its Jerusalem consulate for Palestinians even as a new hard right government prepares to take office in Israel. – Reuters

The Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday published footage and details of a series of joint aerial exercises it held with the US military this week, simulating strikes against Iran and its regional terror proxies. – Times of Israel 

Outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Thursday morning commended the security forces for their operation overnight in Jenin. – Arutz Sheva

The Israeli Navy, the Directorate of Defense Research and Development (DDR&D) of the Israel Ministry of Defense and the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) have successfully completed an interception test of a long-range BARAK interceptor, which is part of the defensive layer of the Israeli Navy’s Sa’ar 6-class corvette. – Arutz Sheva   

Israel’s Military Police Criminal Investigation Division opened an investigation on Wednesday following complaints by Palestinian drivers that IDF soldiers beat and abused them at the Maccabim checkpoint north of Jerusalem. – Haaretz 

The Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday announced the formation of a new co-ed light infantry battalion, which will be stationed along the West Bank security barrier. – Times of Israel 

Editorial: Equally unseemly, however, was Netanyahu’s silence – until he wrote his nine-word Facebook post – and that of the man likely to be his defense minister, Yoav Gallant. They both needed to speak out immediately, and firmly, against political interference in the IDF. – Jerusalem Post

John Lyndon writes: If the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seems irresolvable now, just wait until youth trends in these very young societies fully play themselves out. After three decades of failed top-down diplomacy, now is the time to invest in the bottom-up – and especially in the region’s youth. Doing so can avert a foreseeable and accelerating crisis, make weeks like those we’ve just lived though less likely and, over time, create the foundations that we know true conflict resolution requires. – Haaretz

Rachel O’Donoghue writes: While the piece references several incidents of Israelis being abused, as well as the particularly upsetting Shorrer incident (although it is framed merely as an allegation from the sports journalist), the story downplays the antisemitism and anti-Israel bigotry that has been so publicly displayed in Qatar. – Algemeiner

Turkey

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday told his Turkish counterpart of his “strong opposition” to a new Turkish military operation in Syria and voiced concern over the escalating situation in the county, the Pentagon said. – Reuters

At least two Western embassies have been warned against fresh security threats in the Turkish capital Ankara and Serbia warned its citizens against travelling to the country, two weeks after a bomb exploded in the heart of Istanbul. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: This will be a miscalculation on his part—European fortitude is stronger than Sweden’s 2022 Stockholm syndrome might suggest. Wars often start because of such miscalculations, however. That is why clarity is so important. Stopping Turkish aggression against Kurds today can prevent a deadly conflict with Greece as Turkey’s elections approach. – 19FortyFive

Olli Pekka Suorsa and Brendon J. Cannon write: This novelty constitutes one more in a growing list of tools with which Turkey can pursue its increasingly ambitious regional policies. However, because Turkey’s drones remain vulnerable to modern air defenses, we argue that drone carriers have a place in low-intensity wars like the proxy wars in Libya and Syria. The drone carriers will help Ankara, for example, project power across long distances with less reliance on land basing. – War on the Rocks

Steven A. Cook writes: Amid all the recriminations, however, the status quo suits Washington and Ankara well. The United States will not choose between the YPG and Turkey because U.S. officials want someone to keep an eye on the Islamic State and can’t be sure the Turks will do it. On the flip side, Erdogan does not want the United States to choose because Washington’s relationship with Syria’s Kurds is too juicy a political target to willingly give up. – Foreign Policy

Gulf States

Last week, Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia clasped hands and grinned at the opening ceremony of the soccer World Cup in Qatar, showing off the repair of a rift that reshaped the Gulf. – New York Times

The leader of Bahrain, one of Qatar’s closest neighbors, didn’t attend the opening ceremony. And fans from Bahrain still can’t get direct flights to Doha, which have remained suspended since 2017, when Saudi Arabia and three other Arab nations, including Bahrain, imposed a punishing trade boycott on Qatar. – Bloomberg 

The FIFA World Cup opening ceremony in Qatar was marked by displays of Gulf harmony unthinkable just a couple of years ago. But the lovefest had its limits […] The rift ended in 2021, with aviation and trade links restored between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. But Bahrain has remained the exception. – Bloomberg

Jane Biran writes: If these things had been made clear in advance, in addition to all the other reasons the choice of Qatar for the World Cup was questionable, the case for a mass protest would have been made and those who were in it for the money may have had cause to think again. Qatar and the World Cup make it clear that where there are strong grounds for complaints against any scheme affecting the lives of millions, they should be acted upon not at the eleventh hour but from day one. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

No Israelis complained to the diplomats stationed in Qatar for the World Cup of mistreatment, contrary to the impression from videos on social media, Iris Ambor, head of the Foreign Ministry’s delegation to Doha, said on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

The inscriptions on the dark grey granite slab became the seminal breakthrough in deciphering ancient Egyptian hieroglyphics after it was taken from Egypt by forces of the British empire in 1801. Now, as Britain’s largest museum marks the 200-year anniversary of the decipherment of hieroglyphics, thousands of Egyptians are demanding the stone’s return. – New York Post 

President Isaac Herzog is expected to visit Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates starting this coming Sunday, but security officials have identified online protests against the visit which include threats to his life, and a clear call for him not to come, Channel 12 News reported on Wednesday. – Arutz Sheva

The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine refugees announced on Tuesday that it located an underground tunnel below an elementary school it operates in Gaza. – Haaretz

Alex Grinberg writes: Besides the physical threat that Algeria may pose, Algeria’s natural gas supplies provide another tool in its arsenal. Algeria has already weaponized its gas supplies and can undoubtedly do it again. The notion that Europe should turn to Algeria, a Russian ally, in its moment of weakness is counterproductive and even dangerous. It’s time the United States and Europe recognize what Algeria stands for, take necessary precautions against its global orientation, and levy sanctions as should already be done under U.S. law. – The National Interest

China

The groundswell of discontent that has gripped at least a dozen major Chinese cities in recent days was triggered primarily by resentment of the draconian measures the government has maintained to quickly snuff out, if not prevent, coronavirus outbreaks. But the protests in Beijing and elsewhere have also exposed many people’s apprehension over President Xi Jinping’s broader nationalist vision — which increasingly prioritizes stability and national security over individual freedoms. – Washington Post

They are showing up at homes in the middle of the night, stopping people and searching their phones for banned apps, summoning individuals for questioning at police stations and holding them for more than 24 hours. Through these and other tactics, Chinese authorities are quietly trying to stamp out the demonstrations and vigils that have spread across the country within the past week, challenging the Communist Party’s authority in a way not seen since the 1989 Tiananmen protests. – Washington Post

Twitter is banned in China, but it is proving a critical platform for getting videos and images of protests occurring across the nation out to the rest of the world. – Wall Street Journal

For years now, the United States has been trying to pivot its foreign policy focus to Asia, to face a potential threat from a more powerful China, and to get its NATO and European allies to take the challenge posed by Beijing more seriously. – New York Times

Workers and residents rebelling against a pandemic lockdown in an industrial district of southern China clashed with riot police in white hazmat suits twice this week, the latest flare-up of anger against “zero Covid” restrictions that have spawned protests across the country. – New York Times

The deaths of Chinese Communist leaders are always fraught moments of political theater, and especially so now with the passing of Jiang Zemin soon after a wave of public defiance on a scale unseen since Mr. Jiang came to power in 1989. – New York Times

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday accused NATO of whipping up tensions near China in a way that posed risks for Russia. – Reuters

Hong Kong’s security minister on Wednesday warned that the city’s protests against China’s anti-virus restrictions were a “rudiment of another color revolution” and urged residents not to participate in activities that might hurt national security. – Associated Press 

The US has accused Beijing of providing Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccines of questionable efficacy to foreign nations “for strategic political purposes” — often demanding concessions such as cutting diplomatic ties with Taiwan in exchange. – New York Post 

U.S. officials believe the protests that erupted in a number of Chinese cities over the weekend are unlikely to spread or spark a wider movement against Beijing’s authoritarian rulers, according to U.S. government communications obtained by POLITICO. – Politico

China has enlisted tech giants Alibaba and Tencent to aid its efforts in designing semiconductor chips, as Beijing braces for further US-led sanctions aimed at suppressing Chinese computing power. – Financial Times

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for efforts to bring calm to the war in Ukraine in talks with European Council President Charles Michel, a sign that Beijing may be trying to address one of its biggest points of friction with Europe. – Bloomberg

A Hong Kong court delayed media mogul Jimmy Lai’s foreign collusion trial, as China mulls a local government request to bar overseas-based lawyers from representing defendants in national security cases. – Bloomberg

A sortie of Chinese bombers landed at a Russian air base for the first time, the Russian government said Wednesday, as Western leaders contemplated China’s emergence as a threat to NATO members. – Washington Examiner

Britain’s relationship with China is under the spotlight as Beijing squelches anti-government Covid lockdown protests, with some British lawmakers calling for the expulsion of Chinese diplomats from London. Some of the mounting dissatisfaction with Beijing is also being directed at the new British prime minister, Rishi Sunak, whose stance against Communist China has been seen as less than robust by a growing number of influential lawmakers in his own governing Conservative party. – New York Sun 

Nicholas Kristof writes: Chinese netizens these days discuss “banana peels” (xiang jiao pi) and “shrimp moss” (xia tai). Why? Because the former has the same initials as Xi Jinping. And “shrimp moss” sounds like the Chinese for “step down.” A dictator’s dilemma: How do you arrest people for posting about banana peels without adding to the ridicule that undermines your rule? – New York Times

Spencer Bokat-Lindell writes: The protests are the greatest public challenge to China’s government in years. After nearly three years of pandemic restrictions, how and why did they take off now? And will they succeed in pressuring the government to change course, or will they peter out as a fleeting exception that proves the resilience of Xi’s rule? – New York Times

Wu Qiang writes: When the demonstrators took to the streets, it evoked the moment Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon. The die has been cast. China’s future belongs to those people on the streets. – New York Times

Patty-Jane Geller and Nathan Waite write: To avoid the worst of these outcomes, the United States needs to prioritize the strengthening of its own nuclear forces. That effort entails both continuing to modernize existing capabilities while enhancing the number and types of U.S. nuclear capabilities required to address the growing Chinese threat. – Washington Examiner

Andreas Kluth writes: If the cause is just and the goal is liberty, I would march with, under and behind any of these symbols. But the blank sheet and the bare scalp may be the most powerful so far. It’s possible that I feel that way because the stakes are so high. In Iran as in China, people are taking big risks to demand human dignity from regimes that draw their might not from legitimacy but from oppression. – Bloomberg

Matthew Brooker writes: For outsiders, Jiang’s death is a reminder of a more freewheeling and hopeful age that has long since faded […] Such behavior is difficult to imagine from the current incumbent, who sticks to scripted appearances and doesn’t do interviews. Since Jiang left the stage, China has become richer and more powerful, though less popular overseas and (the protests would suggest) more dissatisfied at home. It’s hard not to conclude that something has been lost. – Bloomberg

Elisabeth Braw writes: Two new blocs are forming, though unlike the cold war, when adversaries squared off over territory, the competition now is economic. The emerging western bloc has an opportunity to gain the upper hand by collectively building a top-notch and safe 6G model. There would be diplomatic benefits as well as technological ones. – Financial Times

Michael Rubin writes: First (and most important), the United States can speak on behalf of principle beyond the right of peaceful protest. The battle today is for the liberal order. The White House, for example, might speak about the virtues of democracy, government accountability, and freedom. The issue across China is not simply the people’s right to protest, but rather the abuses of power that lead the Chinese people down this path. It is about individual liberty. The Chinese Communist Party repeatedly argues that its system is superior to Western democracy. […]Now is Biden’s time to show Western democracy to be superior. – 19FortyFive

Patty-Jane Geller writes: China is also developing advanced capabilities like a fractional orbital bombardment system that would enable a nuclear missile to orbit the globe before flying to its target on a hypersonic trajectory. Compared to traditional ballistic missiles, such a system would be difficult for the U.S. to detect and track. – Heritage Foundation

Victor Shih writes: Although China under Jiang was not a free or democratic place, many people in the region may be nostalgic now—pining for his steadiness, his openness, and his willingness to expose the regime to some criticism from the press and from society at large. – Foreign Policy

Austin Horng-En Wang writes:  If the United States and Taiwan can speed up the negotiation of a bilateral trade agreement, future economic pressure from China will be largely mitigated. For now, the China factor will remain the most important consideration for Taiwanese voters in presidential elections. – The National Interest

Asia

Australia’s former Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Wednesday listed his achievements in government including standing up to a “bullying“ China as he unsuccessfully argued against being censured by the Parliament for secretly amassing multiple ministerial powers. – Associated Press 

The former head of a Japan-China friendship group who recently returned to Japan from six years in a Beijing prison for what he said were false spying charges said he still hopes to see China become a global leader but with better treatment of human rights. – Associated Press

The U.S. Navy on Tuesday dismissed Beijing’s protests over a “freedom of navigation operation” conducted near a Chinese-held island in the South China Sea, in the latest incident drawing new attention to one of the world’s potential military flashpoints. – Associated Press 

China has warned the United States to not interfere in its relationship with India following deadly border skirmishes between the Asian giants in 2020, the Pentagon said in a report. – Reuters 

U.S. President Joe Biden plans to travel to Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC’s Arizona facility on Dec. 6 to promote the administration’s push to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, the White House said. – Reuters

Singapore and Hong Kong start-ups are sidestepping their home stock exchanges to merge with special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs) in the US, as fundraising vehicles in the Asian financial hubs have yielded little on their exit plans. – Financial Times 

Nato members held their first dedicated debate on Taiwan in September, as the US encourages other members of the transatlantic security alliance to pay more attention to the rising threat of China to the island. – Financial Times 

The UK and Japan have wound up their first military exercise in three years as commanders warn of “sharp destabilisation” in the security environment caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an increasingly assertive China. – Financial Times 

Editorial: Whatever one might say about Chiang Kai-shek — for he was not without profound faults — cozying up to Beijing is not an error he would have made or condoned. It would be a mistake to make too much of his great-grandson’s election in Taipei but also to make too little of it. It’s a moment to think of possibilities. For if Chiang’s ghost troubles the Far East today, it could be because he left behind at his death a great deal of unfinished business. – New York Sun 

Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Andrew Metrick and Becca Wasser write: Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military has operated from airbases almost totally secure from air and missile attacks. The sanctuary era is long over, especially in the Indo-Pacific due to China’s acquisition of a large number of accurate long-range missiles and increasingly modern air forces. Conventionally armed Chinese missiles can range most American bases in the region, including Guam, but the level of the threat varies considerably and is directly tied to the base’s distance from China. – War on the Rocks

Africa

Cyril Ramaphosa on Wednesday moved to the brink of becoming the first South African president to face impeachment after a report found evidence that he might have broken the law in relation to a stash of money stolen at one of his properties. – New York Times

The three Nigerian stowaways found on an oil tanker’s rudder after an 11-day ocean voyage from Lagos, Nigeria to Las Palmas in the Canary Islands are seeking asylum in Spain, a spokesperson for the Spanish government delegation in the Canaries said Wednesday. – Associated Press 

Africa’s transition to cleaner fuels and power generation presents investors with opportunities across the value chain, but more direct financing is needed on projects, the head of a South African independent power producer, said on Thursday. – Reuters

United States

House Democrats ushered in a new generation of leaders on Wednesday with Rep. Hakeem Jeffries elected to be the first Black American to head a major political party in Congress at a pivotal time as long-serving Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her team step aside next year. – Associated Press 

When asked about US President Donald Trump’s recent dinner with prominent antisemites Kanye West and Nick Fuentes at his Florida resort of Mar-a-Lago, Netanyahu said that the former President had made a “mistake,” which he hoped he would not repeat, but he recalled all of the good Trump did for Israel during his time in office. – Arutz Sheva 

Edward Luce writes: The history of great power screw ups is frequently about mistaking proactiveness for being in control. In reality, acting pre-emptively is often the quickest way to lose control. George W Bush, like Putin, is living proof of that. An economic policymaker once said: “Plan beats no plan.” In foreign policy, the reverse is more often the case. Biden had no plan for Ukraine. The fear is that America does have a plan for China. – Financial Times

Defense

The U.S. Army awarded a $1.2 billion contract to Raytheon Technologies Co (RTX.N) for six National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) for Ukraine on Wednesday, the Pentagon said. – Reuters

With the deadline to pass the annual defense authorization bill looming, GOP lawmakers are throwing a potential wrench into the timeline. At the center of the issue is the Biden administration’s military COVID-19 vaccine mandate. – The Hill

A bill to halt the government’s purchase of Chinese-made drones is being stalled by demands for a carve-out for the intelligence community, sources said of discussions with the House Intelligence Committee. – Washington Examiner

The American public’s historically low confidence in the military as a public institution is not due solely to the action of civil or uniformed military leaders, according to an annual survey from the Reagan Institute. – Defense News

The Senate on Wednesday confirmed Robert Storch to serve as the Defense Department inspector general in a 92-3 vote, making him the first Senate-confirmed official to assume the role since Jon Rymer left the post in January 2016. – Defense News

Editorial: The Pentagon denies this is a problem, but it surely is if half the public believes it. The military relies on young Americans to sign up amid many other career opportunities. Fewer are doing so. Americans on the left have their own reasons for declining confidence in the military: 46% cited right-wing extremism, even though this scourge has been wildly overstated. – Wall Street Journal

Lars Erik Schönander writes: All federal agencies should undergo an inspection to reveal the size and composition of their drone fleets. At the moment, there is no requirement for agencies to disclose the number and types of drones they are buying. Federal agencies shouldn’t be allowed to buy products from companies that threaten America’s security. – Wall Street Journal