Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Russia on Tuesday aligned itself with its ally Iran in rejecting Western attempts to maintain curbs on Iran despite the collapse of a 2015 deal intended to restrain Tehran’s nuclear program in return for relief from sanctions. – Reuters

Canada on Tuesday imposed new Iran-related sanctions targeting seven people who Ottawa accused of being involved in activities threatening international peace and security, according to a statement from the Canadian foreign ministry. – Reuters

Iranian authorities have questioned or arrested over 90 journalists since nationwide protests rocked the Islamic Republic last year, local media reported Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse

Eli Cohen writes: This solution is no substitute for the ceaseless efforts of the international community, and of Israel, to prevent the Iranian ayatollah regime from attaining nuclear military capabilities. The way to achieve this is through international economic and diplomatic pressure and a credible military threat that will force the Iranian regime to recalculate its path and stop the race for a nuclear weapon once and for all. – Wall Street Journal

Doron Matza writes: It comes with a heavy price tag. Iran will become a superpower, with all that entails. Israel will have its hands tied behind its back and would be unable to attack even if it wanted to. Iranian nukes will transform Tehran into a much fiercer beast than it currently is, and the only thing that can save Israel from this nightmare scenario is Iran itself kicking the bucket. – Ynet

Israel

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has frozen funds for Arab towns and Palestinian education programmes in East Jerusalem, citing crime and safety fears and prompting accusations of racism. – Reuters

An Israeli official brushed off on Tuesday the rare U.S. use of the term “terror attack” to condemn the killing of a Palestinian in the occupied West Bank, as a court ruled one of the Jewish settlers held as suspects be released to house arrest. – Reuters

Mayanei Hayeshua Medical Center in Bnei Brak was hacked overnight Monday, the Health Ministry and Israel National Cyber Directorate (INCD) announced Tuesday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said Tuesday that if the United States were to agree to a defense pact with Riyadh as part of a potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, it would reassure Gulf nations that they are protected from Iranian aggression, rendering their nuclear ambitions “unnecessary.” – Times of Israel

Israeli security guards at the Erez border crossing into the northern Gaza Strip foiled an attempt to smuggle small drones into the Palestinian enclave, the Defense Ministry announced Wednesday. – Times of Israel

The Shin Bet security agency on Tuesday said it had foiled plans by a terror cell of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in the West Bank to carry out attacks against Israeli civilians and troops. It said the cell received orders from an operative in Lebanon. – Times of Israel

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir on Tuesday met with Cypriot Justice Minister Anna Koukkides-Procopiou in Limassol — the first time the controversial lawmaker has sat down with a European Union country’s official since assuming office. – Times of Israel

The Lebanese army mobilized naval forces against Israeli boats violating what was said to be Lebanon’s sovereignty, Beirut-based Al-Mayadeen reported. – Ynet

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: Until Israel decides on any new regulation and any cyber law whatsoever, the Jewish state will remain behind the eight ball when cyberattacks on it succeed in various weak sectors. More gravely, Iran and other countries seeking to damage Israel in a broader way will continue to have opportunities to harm the country’s national security which could have been properly addressed. – Jerusalem Post

Avi Kumar writes: So, while Israel bends over backward for rapprochement with many nations having rocky ties at best, maybe the country should also shift attention toward those with a more positive disposition who will reciprocate with positive gestures. With so much trade, tourist potential and other relationships to build, especially as they need allies at the UN, maybe it’s time to give thought to Oceania in the quest to forge long-term alliances. – Jerusalem Post

Afghanistan

One man spent his childhood in the foothills of northeastern Afghanistan dreaming of being a soldier for the U.S.-backed government. The other secretly applied to a military academy — against his parents’ wishes — determined to prove himself on the battlefield. – New York Times

A U.S.-funded assessment of Afghanistan’s central bank found that it lacks independence from the Taliban administration and adequate safeguards against money laundering and terrorism financing, a U.S. watchdog told Congress on Tuesday. – Reuters

A Marine injured by a suicide bomber during the US military’s chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan described a bizarre meeting with President Biden from his hospital bed — during which the commander-in-chief attempted to shake his missing hand. – New York Post

Catherine Rampell writes: There is a solution to cases such as Akbari’s: the Afghan Adjustment Act. This bill would, among other things, allow Afghans in the United States to apply for permanent legal status after undergoing additional vetting. This would be on top of the extensive vetting this population already endured when entrusted to protect U.S. service members’ lives in Afghanistan, and then again when paroled into the United States. – Washington Post

Iraq

On a gentle knoll within plain view of the Pentagon he once labored to hold to account, Ian Fishback, an anti-torture whistle-blower during the U.S. occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq, was laid to rest Tuesday with full military honors on the nation’s most hallowed ground. – New York Times

Iraq’s official media regulator on Tuesday ordered all media and social media companies operating in the Arab state not to use the term “homosexuality” and instead to say “sexual deviance,” the regulator said. – Reuters

NATO is developing simulation facilities alongside the Iraqi Armed Forces in a bid to improve the force’s training methods and strengthen security. – Janes

Arabian Peninsula

The ruler of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, is a key American ally who counts on the United States to defend his country. […]These deepening relationships show how a Middle Eastern leader viewed by the U.S. government as an important partner is increasingly striking out on his own path. American officials have had limited success in persuading Sheikh Mohammed to align with U.S. foreign policy — particularly when it comes to limiting Chinese military ties and isolating Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. – New York Times

A Houston woman known online as the “Sassy Trucker” has left the United Arab Emirates after being stranded in Dubai for months over an altercation at a car rental agency. – Associated Press

Opposition leader and former prime minister Yair Lapid met with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah Bin Zayed in Italy on Tuesday. – Times of Israel

Ziv Bar’el writes: Mohammed bin Zayed, the UAE’s ruler, must have smacked his lips when he read in the news about how many of Israel’s pilots had become redundant: He has almost an entire air force available for hire. – Haaretz

Clara Keuss writes: It is a start, and possibly a very good one. The UAE was satisfied with U.S. engagement at the level it has been for nearly 30 years; it is now a matter of maintaining that support. Otherwise, the UAE will be courted by those who have not lost interest – including Tehran, Beijing, and Moscow – and the U.S. will watch a longtime ally slip away. – Center for Maritime Strategy

Middle East & North Africa

After a decade lampooning the region’s kings, autocrats and despots, the website AlHudood has been blocked in Jordan, where it was founded in 2013, with Uraiqat and his team of writers now effectively personae non gratae. Their offense? Mocking the lavish wedding of the kingdom’s crown prince. – Wall Street Journal

The Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority Osama Rabie announced on Tuesday the success of an operation to recover a sunken tugboat, according to a statement. – Reuters

Exhausted, pregnant and weeping, Sudanese nurse Tafaul Omar sat under the scorching desert sun along with 14 other migrants who said they had been arrested by Tunisian authorities and dumped in the border area with Libya – a practice Tunisia denies. – Reuters

The Jordanian military said Tuesday one man died and two others were arrested during an attempt to infiltrate the country. – Associated Press

The Washington Post came under fire Monday for publishing what critics called a fawning puff piece about a Palestinian terror cell in the West Bank. The outlet was accused of “legitimizing” the terrorist group with sympathetic reporting driven by an alleged anti-Israel bias at the paper. – Fox News

Australia will officially reinstate the term “Occupied Palestinian Territories,” and will harden its objections to settlements in the West Bank, the country’s Labor party said Tuesday. – Times of Israel

A senior United Nations official condemned the Gaza Strip’s terrorist rulers Hamas Monday for issuing a series of death sentences a day earlier. – Times of Israel

Gianluca Pacchiani writes: Given the near-complete absence of free media in the Strip, it is difficult for outside analysts to gauge how many people participated in the latest round of protests. According to videos circulating on social media, numbers seemed to be significantly larger in the first demonstration than in the second, when Hamas’s security apparatus adopted preventive measures. […]But on social media, at least, it appears that the protest movement is maintaining its momentum. – Times of Israel

Hamidreza Azizi writes: As for the West’s role in the region, its options are limited from a values-promotion perspective. It encounters two categories of authoritarian political systems: relatively aligned, conservative regimes such as Saudi Arabia and revisionist, if still non-democratic, governments such as Iran and its proxies. Both camps are also strengthened by engagement with authoritarian great powers seeking greater influence from outside the region. Regardless of whether the West increases interaction or reduces its engagement, its actions will contribute to the further fortification of authoritarian forms of government. – The National Interest

China

The U.S. is set to ban private-equity and venture-capital investments in some Chinese technology companies under an executive order the Biden administration will release Wednesday, escalating Washington’s efforts to prevent Beijing from developing cutting-edge technology for its military. – Wall Street Journal

China released draft rules on Tuesday to curb uses of facial recognition, taking a step to limit the expansion of a polarizing technology while leaving large carve outs for national-security-related uses. – Wall Street Journal

Two U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday asked the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to address questions about potential security concerns involving cellular modules made by Chinese companies including Quectel (603236.SS) and Fibocom Wireless (300638.SZ). – Reuters

The mother of a U.S. Navy sailor charged with providing sensitive military information to China encouraged him to cooperate with a Chinese intelligence officer, telling her son it might help him get a job with the Chinese government someday, the prosecution said Tuesday. – Associated Press

TED, the US non-profit famous for snappy speeches from visionary leaders, espouses the belief that there is no greater force for changing the world than an idea. But the group’s days of spreading ideas to China’s 1.4bn people are now in question after it drew the ire of another powerful force: the Chinese Communist party’s security hawks. – Financial Times

Editorial: If China wants to play a constructive role advancing peace, it should do more than attend a follow-up conference called by Ukraine. It should also take the opportunity to promote a truthful statement making clear that Ukrainian territory has been illegally occupied by Russia for nearly a decade, and that Mr. Putin’s full-scale invasion nearly 18 months ago has further compromised Kyiv’s sovereign right to protect its internationally recognized borders and rule its own land. Short of that, the world will continue to see Chinese maneuvering for what it has been — a smokescreen to obscure its enabling of an unjustified war. – Washington Post

Minxin Pei writes: Cheering gridlock in Washington might make some leaders in Beijing feel good. But it’s not likely to accomplish much else. If China truly wants to challenge US power, it will need to look more honestly at its own mistakes rather than counting on its adversary to self-destruct. – Bloomberg

Benny Avni writes: Mr. Xi would like to “help” that effort, but only in a way that would assure a Russian victory and thus strengthen his side of Cold War II. As Ms. Haley, who has honed her foreign policy chops at the United Nations, says, “a win for Russia is a win for China.” – New York Sun

Asia

Australia has put the climate and job creation in the Pacific at the center of its new foreign aid policy, part of an effort to woo back island nations that have fallen under China’s deep-pocketed influence. – Washington Post

Japan on Tuesday signed an agreement with Namibia to jointly explore for rare earth minerals as part of its broader plan to develop supply chains for cobalt and other minerals used in making electric vehicle batteries. – Reuters

Australia’s third largest pension fund will stay active in Japanese markets in the coming months and is neutral about China despite growing investor aversion to the country’s markets, a senior executive said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Ten Chinese air force aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence zone on Wednesday accompanying five Chinese warships engaged in “combat readiness” patrols, the island’s defence ministry said, the second such incursion this week. – Reuters

China and Russia have submitted technical queries to Japan questioning the country’s plan to release radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea, China’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. – Reuters

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said on Wednesday that Japan has lodged a protest with Russia over Moscow’s suspension of tax treaties. – Reuters

The estranged son of Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn visited a daycare center for underprivileged children in Bangkok on Tuesday following a surprise return to the country after 27 years of living abroad. – Associated Press

Myanmar’s military and affiliated militias are committing increasingly frequent and brazen war crimes, including aerial bombings targeting civilians, a group of investigators established by the United Nations said Tuesday. – Associated Press

President Joe Biden said he plans to travel to Vietnam soon as the US seeks to bolster its ties with Asian nations and reduce China’s influence on the region. – Bloomberg

Pheu Thai, a party backed by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra’s family, has added six more partners in a coalition it’s steering to form a government and end a political stalemate following the May general election. – Bloomberg

The aptly named Australian counter-drone firm DroneShield is riding the global wave of interest in counter-unmanned aerial systems (cUAS) capabilities, looking to expand its “footprint” into the Middle East, according to the firm’s CEO. – Breaking Defense

Harun Karčić writes: Regional political rearrangements are already visible, both regarding relations with outside powers and intra-regional cooperation dynamics. Equally profound for the region and for Kazakhstan’s future per se is the ongoing “decoupling” between China and the West, and Astana’s search for a new equilibrium. The multitude of military, political, economic, and cultural links between Russia and Central Asia developed over the past century or so will not disappear overnight. But the overt disapproval of Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, nonetheless, shows that the Central Asian states are no longer satellites of Moscow. – The National Interest

Africa

American military commanders were dismayed last month when a clique of top army officers seized power in Niger, the U.S.’s main ally in the fight against Islamist militants in West Africa. – Wall Street Journal

Niger’s new junta refused to allow a U.S.-backed peace mission to visit from neighboring Nigeria on Tuesday, saying it couldn’t assure their security in a capital whose roads are now barricaded by nationalist youth. – Wall Street Journal

Russia and the Wagner mercenary group have “tried to take advantage” of instability in Niger, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Tuesday, two weeks into a bloodless military coup that ousted Niger’s U.S.-allied president. – Washington Post

Niger’s military coup is hampering United Nations’ humanitarian efforts in one of the world’s poorest countries as border and airspace closures have cut off supplies of medicine and food, a U.N. official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) said on Tuesday it had resumed distributing food aid in parts of Ethiopia’s Tigray region after a three-month pause. – Reuters

Five people have been killed in the South African city of Cape Town as a strike by mini-bus taxi drivers that began last week turned violent, authorities said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Niger was slapped with more sanctions on Tuesday, hours after its new military leaders rejected the latest diplomatic mission aimed at restoring constitutional order following a July 26 coup. – Reuters

When Ethiopia’s government and rebellious forces from the Tigray region agreed in November to end their conflict, diplomats hailed the peace deal as a new dawn for Africa’s second most populous nation. – Reuters

The World Trade Organization’s director-general said on Tuesday she discussed measures, including support from the agency, with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu that could help cushion the impact of ending a subsidy on petrol that has increased the cost of living in Africa’s largest economy. – Reuters

Survivors of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide criticized Tuesday a call by appeals judges at a United Nations court to indefinitely halt the trial of an alleged financer and supporter of the massacre due to the suspect’s ill health. – Associated Press

A decision by a bloc of West African nations to shut down their borders with Niger as a way of sanctioning its coup plotters is harming local businesses in northern Nigeria, where a cross-border economy has boomed for years. – Associated Press

The World Bank said it will not consider new loans to Uganda after the East African country earlier this year enacted an anti-gay bill that rights groups and others have condemned. – Associated Press

A Kenyan police official said Tuesday that dead bodies were planted to accuse police officers of using excessive force during recent anti-government protests, which rights groups say left dozens of demonstrators dead. – Associated Press

Nearly two weeks have passed since the coup in Niger, and the two men making competing claims to power have gone quiet in recent days. One is the ousted president, who said last week he’s being held hostage and has been publicly silent since then. The other is the military junta leader who asserts he acted out of concern for the country’s security and has encouraged Nigeriens to defend it from any foreign intervention. – Associated Press

Sudan’s escalating conflict has driven more than 4 million people from their homes, including over 884,000 who have fled to neighboring countries, a U.N. official said Tuesday. – Associated Press

The Central African Republic voted to abolish term limits in a July 29 constitutional referendum, which may result in President Faustin-Archange Touadera seeking reelection in 2025. – Bloomberg

Anthony Grant writes: French influence and prestige in Africa is clearly on the wane, but things like a preference for English over French and burning French flags at demonstrations are probably the least of President Macron’s concerns. Nearly 1,500 French military personnel are still stationed at an air base at Niamey as Niger flirts with complete anarchy. There are a  thousand troops parked in adjacent Chad. Mr. Macron is taking a long holiday, but once it is over he may find the political heat from Africa to be more stifling than forecast at Paris, too. – New York Sun

Howard W. French writes: Those who take this as a suggestion that African countries must fight each other as an obligatory step toward the development of capable states, as the European nations that Tilly studied once did, will have misunderstood me. What I mean, rather, is that working out an ever-deeper sense of mutual interest in regional political development, stability, and economic cooperation through deeper statecraft and engagement is going to be required of African nations if they are to get anywhere. And relying on outsiders to play front-line roles at the first sign of trouble will always be inimical to that. – Foreign Policy

John A. Lechner and Marat Gabidullin write: Wagner does not have a permanent structure; it morphs, adapting rapidly depending on the situation and circumstances. For African operations, Belarus can provide equipment and state backing. In return, Minsk will get a cut of some projects in Africa and shore up its military with training. And Wagner will continue to pursue its projects, framing its efforts as furthering Russia’s, and now Belarus’s, national interests. – Foreign Policy

Folahanmi Aina writes: As ECOWAS mobilizes for military action in Niger, the prospect of a failed intervention far outweighs any projected gains. Rather, ECOWAS should tread with caution while exploring robust, diplomatic responses to the crisis. Time should also be given for ongoing mediation efforts to take root. Human lives are at stake; a non-military solution must be prioritized above all else. – Foreign Policy

United States

The judge overseeing the criminal case against Donald Trump alleging he conspired to undo the 2020 election results set a court hearing for Friday morning to resolve disputes over what information the former president and his legal team can access and potentially publicly expose. – Wall Street Journal

More than a week into the August recess, some lawmakers are diving back into their efforts to fund the government for fiscal 2024, seeking to gain a negotiating edge when Congress returns in September. – Wall Street Journal

Lawyers for former president Donald Trump asked a federal judge Tuesday to tap the brakes on prosecutors’ scheduled push later this week for a trial date in his criminal election interference case, as both sides dueled over Trump’s related resistance to agreeing to keep government evidence turned over in the case secret pending trial. – Washington Post

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. writes: A flutter of hope passed through the electorate with the prospect of a TV debate between Florida’s Ron DeSantis and California’s Gavin Newsom, perhaps starting a groundswell for an alternative presidential slate in 2024. A widely read interview with Obama biographer David Garrow, of “Eyes on the Prize” and Martin Luther King Jr. biography fame, put the question of Obama-style cynicism on the table. Joe Biden cultivated a belief in millions of voters that he would he wave away their student debt though he knew he couldn’t. Mr. Biden is doing all he can now to make sure the country must choose between him and Mr. Trump. But many a slip occurs between cup and lip—a health crisis, a Hunter blowup, a Trump acquittal, a reverse in Ukraine—that could make Messrs. Biden and Smith the men who delivered the White House to Donald Trump. – Wall Street Journal

Joseph Bosco writes: Whichever party changes its nominee will almost certainly win the election. If both do, the country will win with a decent, healthy contest between two ethically, intellectually and physically fit candidates. If neither changes, a third candidate may either win or throw the election to the House of Representatives. – The Hill

Defense

Veterans have one day left to take full advantage of the largest expansion to their benefits since the GI Bill. – Wall Street Journal

The White House on Tuesday pounced on Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) hold on hundreds of military promotions, saying that Americans have had enough with him and Senate Republicans playing politics with service members. – The Hill

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on Tuesday accused Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) of being “prepared to burn the military down” with his hold on hundreds of military promotions over the Pentagon’s abortion policy. – The Hill

Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley criticized Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) months-long hold on hundreds of military promotions on Tuesday, arguing that “there’s got to be other ways” to protest the Pentagon’s abortion policy. – The Hill

A new Pentagon inspector general report found military recruiters have failed to comprehensively screen applicants for their connections to political extremist groups and criminal gangs. – The Hill

Marine Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Squadron 3 (VMU 3) introduced its new Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles in a ceremony at Marine Corps Air Station Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii, last week. – USNI News

Mackenzie Eaglen writes: This has all culminated in a US defense budget which has failed to have any real growth under record inflation. Our troops are expected to do the same or more with less, and as the years have dragged on, the cracks are starting to show, leading to a shrinking and increasingly hollow force which is declining in capability. With all these trends considered, it’s no wonder Pentagon leaders are worried. Reversing these trends will require real growth in America’s military budget. If we want to correct these trends and adequately deter an increasingly belligerent China, we’ll first need to make up for lost time and fully fund the military. – American Enterprise Institute