Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Hamas’s elevation of the Oct. 7 attacks’ architect, Yahya Sinwar, as its leader cements the militant group’s strategic ties to Iran, signaling a united front between Tehran and its axis of militias in a conflict with Israel and the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

The Canadian government said on Wednesday it has decided to pull the children and guardians of its diplomats out of Israel, amid fears of a widened conflict in the Middle East, the Canadian Press reported. – Reuters

Israeli forces on Wednesday issued new evacuation orders to Palestinians in areas of north Gaza that were among the first to be hit at the start of the war with Hamas in October, after militants fired a fresh volley of rockets into Israel. – Reuters

Israel’s ambulance service has stocked blood supplies in a fortified underground centre, factories have moved out hazardous materials and municipal authorities are checking bomb shelters and water supplies as the country waits for a threatened attack from Iran and its proxies. – Reuters

Israel should fully investigate allegations of sexual abuse against Palestinian detainees by its soldiers, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Wednesday, calling for “zero tolerance” for perpetrators. – Reuters

The Biden administration on Wednesday led international condemnations of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s comments this week suggesting that starving the entire population of Gaza could be justified in order to secure the release of the Israeli hostages. – Agence France-Presse

Hamas politician Khalil al-Hayya is set to continue leading indirect negotiations with Israel for a Gaza ceasefire with guidance from the group’s newly appointed leader, Yahya Sinwar, who continues to run the war effort inside the enclave, three Palestinian sources including a Hamas official said. – Reuters

Israeli forces raided the Balata refugee camp near the city of Nablus on Wednesday and destroyed the local headquarters of the Fatah faction, Palestinian authorities said, as security forces continued sweeps in the occupied West Bank. – Reuters

The World Central Kitchen (WCK), a U.S.-based, non-governmental organisation, said a Palestinian staff member was killed in Gaza on Wednesday, four months after seven staffers were killed by Israeli strikes in an attack that drew widespread condemnation. – Reuters

The World Health Organisation is working on a polio vaccination campaign for Gaza after the virus was detected there, officials say, although the absence of a ceasefire in Israel’s war with Hamas presents multiple roadblocks. – Reuters

Pro-Israel advocacy groups and dual U.S.-Israeli citizens have filed a lawsuit challenging President Joe Biden’s order subjecting individuals involved in settler violence in the West Bank to financial and immigration sanctions. – Reuters

The Israeli Supreme Court considered a petition Wednesday to shutter a desert military prison where soldiers have been accused of abusing Palestinians, as a new video emerged purporting to show the sexual assault of a Palestinian detainee. – Associated Press

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the newly chosen Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has the power to ensure that a cease-fire deal is reached for the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The Palestinian militant group on Tuesday chose Sinwar, its top official in Gaza who masterminded the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, after political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed July 31 in Iran by a presumed Israeli strike. – Associated Press

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran and Hezbollah of preemptive attacks, while Tehran spoke of the Jewish state’s annihilation and the region braced for the possibility of a second direct confrontation between the two arch-foes. – Jerusalem Post

Marc Champion writes: There’s no putting Sinwar in solitary confinement now that he’s the movement’s leader. Until killed or captured, he will hold the second of two keys required to unlock peace in Gaza and so de-escalate tensions at Israel’s border with Lebanon. That will remain the case even if Iran, Hezbollah and the US can succeed in calibrating their expected counterpunch to Israel’s assassinations in a way that avoids escalation, because Sinwar — like his fellow keyholder, Netanyahu — is an arsonist in a desert tinderbox. – Bloomberg

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine launched an armored incursion into Russia’s lightly defended Kursk region in a surprise move early Tuesday that caused panic among civilians and forced Moscow to rush in additional troops. – Wall Street Journal

The prisoner swap last week that brought Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich home didn’t free a pair of well-known Russian cybercriminals in U.S. prisons long rumored to be part of the negotiations between Washington and Moscow. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s air force said on Thursday that it shot down two out of four missiles and all four drones launched by Russia during an overnight attack. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday described a Ukrainian incursion into the country’s southwestern Kursk region as a “large-scale provocation” as his officials asserted that they were fighting off cross-border raids for a second day. Ukrainian officials remained silent about the scope of the operation. – Associated Press

Ilan I. Berman writes: Whatever the political outcome in Washington, though, the reality for Russia will remain the same. Putin’s military misadventure has cost the country dearly, both strategically and in human terms. Officials in Moscow will paint this outcome in more rosy fashion. But for the Russians themselves, the Ukraine conflict shouldn’t be counted as a victory, no matter how hard Kremlin propagandists attempt to spin it. – Newsweek

Mick Ryan writes: Now Moscow’s window of maximum opportunity has almost passed. Over the coming months, as Russian momentum wanes, Ukraine will be preparing, reconstituting, and watching for chances. Success is never certain in war, but Ukraine will be better placed in 2025 than it has been this year to liberate territory and to convince Russia that the cost of the war is not worthwhile. But to prevail, Kyiv will have to rebuild its offensive capacity, carry out diplomatic efforts, influence operations, and come up with a new theory of how to win. – Foreign Affairs

Lebanon

Vacations cut short, hurried goodbyes and last-minute flights at exorbitant fares — residents and tourists, heeding warnings of an impending war, are scrambling to leave summertime Lebanon as tensions build between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese ally. – Washington Post

Rumours of a possible evacuation operation from Lebanon have given German citizens there a false sense of security, a German foreign ministry spokesperson said on Wednesday, urging them to leave the country immediately. – Reuters

More than a thousand British military personnel have been put on standby in case British nationals need to be evacuated from Lebanon. – BBC

The Israel Air Force (IAF) eliminated Hezbollah terrorist Hassan Fares Jeshi, who operated as a commander in Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in the area of Jouaiyya, southern Lebanon, the IDF announced on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

China

China is imposing new restrictions on chemicals used in the production of fentanyl, a move long sought by the U.S. that signals Beijing’s desire to keep open an important diplomatic channel with Washington ahead of November’s presidential election. – Wall Street Journal

Howard W. French writes: This, he said, will lead China to double down on industrial policies and state-driven investments. Many of these will prove misguided or inefficient in the long run. But in a country of China’s size, with enormous resources not only in national wealth but in human talent, many will also succeed, giving its Western competitors all they can handle over the next few decades. All I can say with certainty is that we are all in for a turbulent, costly, and possibly dangerous ride. – Foreign Policy

Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine writes: In weakening these five vital U.S. interests by threatening nuclear annihilation, Beijing could deter the United States from acting in a crisis. In attempting to dominate Asia, China could prompt nuclear proliferation across the region, beginning with South Korea or even Japan, as countries seek a last-ditch nuclear deterrent capability. A China-dominated Asia could fatally fragment the United States’ Asian alliance system, as one U.S. ally after another kowtows to Beijing. – The National Interest

Asia

South Korea could rupture its U.S. alliance and shock financial markets if it started building nuclear weapons, Defence Minister Shin Won-sik told Reuters, dismissing renewed domestic calls for the country’s own arsenal to deter North Korea. – Reuters

Thailand’s Constitutional Court on Wednesday ordered the dissolution of anti-establishment opposition party Move Forward, ruling its campaign to amend a law that protects the monarchy from criticism risked undermining the democratic system. – Reuters

Nagasaki’s mayor said he would stick to a decision to exclude Israel’s ambassador from Friday’s event to mark the city’s atomic bombing, though senior diplomats of the United States and other Group of Seven nations said the snub would keep them away. – Reuters

Africa

Nigeria has arrested seven Polish nationals for raising Russian flags during anti-government protests this week in the northern state of Kano, Peter Afunanya, a spokesperson for the state security service, said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Ebenezer Obadare writes: Current economic hardships are the immediate trigger for the #EndBadGovernance demonstrations, but Nigerians have faced decades of bad governance, and they are fed up. The Tinubu administration is only the latest of many corrupt and inept governments since Nigeria gained independence in 1960. Although the Tinubu government deserves Nigerians’ censure, it would be a mistake to blame a single administration that has only been in power since last August for decades of misgovernance. Nigeria’s problems are profound, and it will take more than protests to fix them. – Wall Street Journal

Guled Ahmed writes: These actions create significant doubts about Djibouti’s neutrality as a partner, raising the question of why NATO has not criticized it for failing to halt alleged Iranian weapons smuggling, terrorism financing, and money laundering, similar to the stance it adopted toward countries like Belarus, Iran, and North Korea in the recent NATO Summit Declaration. Djibouti’s purported neutrality and peace advocacy have not been closely scrutinized, and a fresh look should be taken for the sake of the stability of the region and the security of international waters. – Middle East Institute

United States

Before Vice President Kamala Harris confronted pro-Palestinian and anti-Gaza-war protesters on Wednesday at a campaign rally in Detroit, she faced demands from the leaders of a group that has mobilized voters to protest the U.S. government’s support for Israel […]In addition to an arms embargo on Israel, the Uncommitted leaders have asked for convention speaking roles for a representative of their group and a Palestinian pediatrician. – New York Times

Prosecutors in the U.S. criminal tax case against Hunter Biden accused him of accepting payments from a Romanian businessman who sought to “influence U.S. government agencies” in connection with a criminal probe in Romania. – Reuters

Republicans are trying to stir up the bitter divisions over the Israel-Hamas war to disrupt a rare moment of Democratic unity. As Democrats were celebrating Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, having only recently quieted a feud over the war, critics in the GOP were accusing their rivals of snubbing Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro because he is Jewish and supports Israel. – Politico

Editorial: But truly concluding this era in our national life will require more: finally bringing these men to justice, and justice to these men. Plea deals like the one that collapsed last week are an orderly pathway to a procedurally legitimate outcome. Pursuing them is the correct course from a practical standpoint — just not a political one. The administration didn’t manage to do the right thing last week. But the president still has a chance to correct course after November’s vote, unencumbered by electoral considerations. In doing so, he would leave as his legacy the end, finally, of a grim time for his country. – Washington Post

Editorial: Bell is plenty progressive: He ran on criminal justice reform, access to abortion, gun control and “environmental access.” But he offers clear-eyed support of Israel, praising it as “the only democracy and strongest American ally in the Middle East” and affirming (as do most Americans) its “right to defend itself and go after those who perpetrated” the Oct. 7 atrocities. – New York Post

Editorial: These twin losses for the far-left are significant because they signal that, contrary to a perception that the anti-Israel wing of the party is in the ascendancy, extreme anti-Israel positions can be politically damaging. Bush’s defeat shows that the party is far from having fallen into the grips of the anti-Israel voices, something that provides solace, even while digesting the thought that a pro-Israel Jew right now has little chance of making it onto the Democratic Party’s national ticket. – Jerusalem Post

Defense

This is hallowed ground for the U.S. space program, where NASA set the course for moon landings decades ago. But Florida’s Space Coast, as this stretch of palm trees, subdivisions and rocket pads is called, has never seen anything quite as otherworldly as Elon Musk. – Wall Street Journal

President Joe Biden says the U.S. isn’t at war anywhere in the world. But one giant asterisk to that claim is what’s been happening for nearly a year in the skies over the Red Sea. – Politico

The U.S. Army is considering holding a competition in fiscal 2025 for a next-generation interceptor to take out threats from unmanned aerial systems, Brig. Gen. Frank Lozano, program executive officer for missiles and space, told an audience Aug. 6 at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium. – Defense News

The U.S. Army is planning to release a refreshed missile defense strategy focused on needs in the 2040 timeframe to counter a wide variety of complex threats, according to Lt. Gen. Sean Gainey, the service’s Space and Missile Defense Command commander. – Defense News

Dov S. Zakheim writes: Congress should revisit Rangel’s initiative. Compulsory service could do more than help to eliminate the military’s recruiting shortfalls. It would expose young people to fellow citizens who are not like themselves — whether racially, religiously, ethnically or in terms of gender — and thereby potentially help to bridge the bitter divides that plague our nation. – The Hill

Taren Sylvester writes: The all-volunteer force was always intended to be supported by a stand-by draft. That being said, it should be understood — by political leaders, military leaders, and, perhaps more importantly, by the American public — that conscription is and must necessarily be the option of last resort. The political will that would be necessary to move the needle on any issue involving conscription is nearly insurmountable. As such, it is likely that the only circumstance where the reintroduction of conscription would be even plausible is a crisis of the highest order — the very same motivation that is spurring Ukraine, Taiwan, and many others to reexamine their conscription systems. – War on the Rocks