Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are close to completion, the European Union’s senior negotiator at the talks said Sunday evening, but it remained unclear whether Tehran will accept the final deal. – Wall Street Journal

Iran has begun a sweeping crackdown on its Baha’i community, a long-persecuted religious minority, arresting dozens of people and destroying property belonging to members of the group, according to accounts this week from the government, residents and rights groups – New York Times 

Top negotiators in renewed talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal indicated Sunday that they are optimistic about the possibility of reaching an agreement to impose limits on Tehran’s uranium enrichment. – Associated Press 

Iran on Sunday demanded that the UN nuclear watchdog “completely” resolve outstanding issues related to questions over nuclear material at undeclared sites, amid resumed talks to revive its 2015 nuclear deal – Agence France-Presse

Iran’s foreign minister has said the outcome of the ongoing talks in Vienna aimed at reviving a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers depends on Washington’s flexibility. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Tehran says Iranian experts will control “from day one” an Iranian satellite due to be launched by Russia next week, rejecting reports that it will be first used by Moscow to “enhance its surveillance of military targets” in Ukraine. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Russia’s envoy to talks on reviving Iran‘s 2015 nuclear deal said on Friday they had resumed in a “serious” atmosphere even as few expect a breakthrough compromise while Tehran’s disputed uranium enrichment program surges forward. – Reuters

Masih Alinejad writes: Tehran is unlikely to stop. Regime officials are humiliated that this latest foiled plot makes the regime look like a bumbling failure. Perhaps they will be emboldened to finish what they started. I am grateful for the protection of law-enforcement agencies, and I hope the U.S. government takes this seriously and makes clear to the mullahs that an American citizen like me should feel safe exercising her constitutional freedoms inside U.S. borders. – Wall Street Journal

Alex Vatanka writes: ​​​​All this raises the question: What is Raisi’s plan for staying in the presidential palace and maybe even keeping his name in the race to succeed Khamenei as supreme leader when the day comes? The answer is pretty obvious: He accepts that his presidential mandate is what Khamenei wants it to be. No more and no less. That was Raisi’s modus operandi in his first year in office, and it’s unlikely to change anytime soon. – Foreign Policy

Afghanistan

A bombing in the heart of Kabul’s Shiite minority community Saturday killed at least two people and wounded 22. It was the third terrorist attack in the area since Wednesday, and intensified fears of further violence during the final days of Muharram, the Shiite mourning period. – Washington Post 

This is Afghanistan nearly a year after the Taliban seized control of the country in a lightning advance, moving so fast to take Kabul they surprised even their own leadership. The country’s brightest young citizens are harnessing their intelligence to self-sabotage, because in a twisted system the group has created, that gives them more hope than success. – The Guardian

Garrett Exner writes: That needs to change. Our veterans deserve an opportunity for true reconciliation, and the Afghanistan War Commission has the power to grant them that. They deserve candid explanations from military officials involved in the withdrawal and a full accounting of the decisions they made that led to such a disastrous outcome. Just like the encouragement and support veterans receive from the public, the answers and accountability from the government can provide much-needed healing to Afghanistan veterans. It is something they are owed. Congress must not refuse them. – Washington Examiner

Kori Schake writes: “The Catcher in the Rye” is the greatest novel about the Second World War and its long shadow. Holden Caufield’s voice, for which the novel is renowned, is the voice of a war veteran, to whom everyone is “a phony” and who wants to visit the ducks in Central Park, to recover an innocence that will never return and perhaps never was. The novel’s last line — “Don’t ever tell anybody anything. If you do, you start missing everybody” — is one I’ve often related to. – Bloomberg

Middle East & North Africa

Russia and Turkey announced Friday that they will strengthen their economic cooperation, amid Western fears that Moscow is seeking new avenues to circumvent sanctions imposed for its invasion of Ukraine. – Washington Post 

Lebanon’s top Christian cleric said on Sunday it is “shameful” that politicians have yet to form a new cabinet nearly three months after elections, blaming their chronic feuding for the country’s “decay.” – Reuters

Barbara Leaf, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, told a Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Thursday that growing Chinese influence in the Middle East has made the region less safe. – Jewish Insider 

Assaf Orion writes: In doing so, they will be disregarding several hard truths: that the UN’s main mechanism for preventing another war (i.e., making the LAF and UNIFIL the only armed forces in the south) has failed to the point of crisis; that the parties’ basic interest in avoiding war may no longer outweigh the growing risk of miscalculation, particularly by Hezbollah; and that Lebanon’s current economic meltdown pales in comparison to the assured devastation of another war. The UN must not let Lebanon’s political and economic crises take precedence over doing what it can to avoid a catastrophic war, and fixing UNIFIL’s mission is still the main option at its disposal. – Washington Institute

Khaled Dawoud writes: Whether President Sisi’s European tour will truly help improve his reputation on the world stage remains to be seen. Yet what is certain is that, today, the Egyptian leader feels more confident than at any other time since he took office in June 2014. – Middle East Institute

China

China’s 72-hour spectacle of missiles, warships and jet fighters swarming Taiwan was designed to create a firewall — a blazing, made-for-television warning against what Beijing sees as increasingly stubborn defiance, backed by Washington, of its claims to the island. – New York Times 

China’s military continued on Saturday to menace Taiwan with a series of drills, a show of force intended not only to intimidate Taiwan and the United States, but also to appease a domestic audience that had seemed disappointed by what it perceived as an insufficiently bellicose posture. – New York Times  

China has announced additional live-fire drills in the Bohai and Yellow seas, as Beijing broadcasts its fury over a visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) with military exercises near the island. – Washington Post 

China’s military said Monday it would continue military exercises around Taiwan, extending an unprecedented show of force in retaliation for U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island last week that has raised the potential for conflict involving Beijing, Taipei and Washington. – Washington Post 

Four days of exercises around Taiwan offered a rare glimpse into China’s progress toward its goal of prevailing in any major conflict, including against the U.S. in a potential war over the island. – Wall Street Journal

China escalated its military and diplomatic warnings over Taiwan on Friday as it registered anger at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island. Beijing for the first time sought to demonstrate its ability to militarily blockade Taiwan and it suspended some cooperation with Washington, while sanctioning Mrs. Pelosi. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan drew praise for bolstering an American partner struggling to fend off China, but also set off a response from Beijing that is creating new risks to regional security and is further straining relations between the two powers. – Wall Street Journal

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi vowed Friday that China would not succeed in isolating Taiwan, as Beijing retaliated by suspending climate talks and canceling military exchanges with the United States amid continued military exercises that have sent fears of conflict in East Asia skyrocketing. – Washington Post

China carried out fresh military drills around Taiwan Monday, Beijing said, defying calls for it to end its largest-ever exercises encircling the democratic island in the wake of a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. – Agence France-Presse

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Friday that China’s military exercises aimed at Taiwan, including missiles fired into Japan’s exclusive economic zone, represent a “significant escalation” and that he has urged Beijing to back down. – Associated Press 

Taiwan pledged it won’t succumb to pressure from China after days of air and sea military drills in areas all around the island, with hostilities set to continue even as world leaders urge an end to the strife – Bloomberg 

China is moving to tighten the enforcement of existing rules on imports from Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter, as tensions rise in the aftermath of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island – Bloomberg

Taiwan’s military said it warned off seven drones flying over restricted waters surrounding its outer islands late Friday, the third consecutive day such incidents occurred. – Bloomberg 

Two senators on Sunday urged the Biden administration to go further in its support for both Ukraine and Taiwan, as U.S. tensions with China bubble up after Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan. – Politico

Top Chinese military officials have not returned multiple calls from their American counterparts this week as a crisis erupted in the Pacific over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, according to three people with knowledge of the attempts. – Politico 

Beijing targeted a limited range of U.S.-China military and diplomatic cooperation initiatives Friday in China’s latest expression of public rage over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 19-hour visit to Taiwan earlier this week. – Politico

The United States summoned China’s ambassador to the White House to lodge a protest against actions it called irresponsible and at odds with maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, national security spokesman John Kirby said on Friday. – Jerusalem Post 

Yu-Jie Chen writes: After Taiwan opened a representative office in Lithuania last year, for example, China used its economic clout to retaliate with a severe boycott of Lithuanian products. China applies “divide and conquer” tactics to isolate countries that oppose it. But when democracies, including Taiwan, band together economically, diplomatically and militarily, they stand a better chance of holding their ground against China’s capricious retribution, which is not cost-free for itself either.Freedom is worth fighting for, and all democracies will be strengthened by standing with Taiwan. – New York Times 

Chris Buckley and Steven Lee Myers write: Officials cite national security to restrict lawyers and their clients, or to silence public complaints about financial or land disputes. Academics face tighter monitoring of their teaching and research. Beijing’s combative worldview, other Chinese critics have said, has pushed China too close to Russia and deterred debate over its invasion of Ukraine. – New York Times 

Amy Chang Chien, John Liu, and Paul Mozur write: In response to rising tensions with China, he crafted a meme out of images from the British sitcom, “Mr. Bean,” which showed the titular character checking his watch and falling asleep. Above them, he added his own message: “So is the Party going to attack?” referring to the Chinese Communist Party by a derogatory nickname. – New York Times

Douglas E. Schoen writes: This is not to say that the U.S. should abandon Taiwan. Defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression is vital to safeguarding and preserving democracy globally. However, Pelosi’s visit did nothing to help achieve this end. It was a reckless decision, both politically and practically. – The Hill

Stanley Chao writes: However, China doesn’t need older, often outdated, small mom-and-pop factories, especially ones owned Taiwanese. Just the opposite: Shutting these down would be a blessing for China. It would lower China’s green-house effects, put an end to low-tech industries that no longer serve the interests of the Communist Party, and ease some of China’s power shortages.But China’s true agenda in closing Taiwanese factories will be to devastate Taiwan quietly, one-by-one via the thousands of mom-and-pops doing business with China that — in aggregate — would definitely cripple Taiwan economically. – The Hill

Leo Lewis writes: The third issue is time. In late July, the US Senate proposed a new bill that could in theory create tax incentives that would draw the electric vehicle battery production chain out of China (which dominates in all key areas) and into the US. This is logical stuff, given where electric vehicle markets are heading. The bill would superficially fit the rapid decoupling story. The reality, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs, is a rather more sedate process that would involve lead times of between four and seven years for each of the six principal points in the supply chain. Decoupling is happening, and the past week may raise the political volume on decoupling to unprecedented levels. Any real acceleration, however, may be illusory. – Financial Times 

Lara Williams writes: Though Pelosi’s visit has shaken things up, tensions were already bubbling under the surface. To make matters more urgent, China’s economy is looking quite dire. Growth is rapidly decelerating, youth unemployment stands at a shocking 19.3%, and consumer confidence has plummeted. Any economy where widespread mortgage boycotts are happening isn’t a healthy one. Niall warns that this makes conflict all the more likely. Xi Jinping needs a source of legitimacy for his party, and economic growth no longer does the job. – Bloomberg 

Gearoid Reidy writes: Similarly, little by little, China will likely continue to push at the status quo surrounding Taiwan. The challenge for Japan, the US and their allies is to maintain focus when tensions calm down — and not be distracted when China, inevitably, plays nice again. – Bloomberg 

Ya-Ping Lee writes: Peace in the Taiwan Strait is the shared responsibility of everyone. We are doing our utmost to uphold the cross-strait status quo and the stability of the global supply chain. We thank the G7 countries, the foreign ministers’ meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and our many good friends around the world for supporting peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region. – Jerusalem Post

Edward Lucas writes: Such moves have another important effect: they show that the United States is not carrying the burden of global security alone. If allies willingly attract mainland Chinese ire in solidarity with the United States, they are showing the benefits of multilateral security and strengthen the case for continued US aid to Ukraine. The Chinese Communist Party’s obsessive desire to control the way the rest of the world behaves may seem intimidating. But in reality, it is one of the regime’s biggest weaknesses. Don’t cower before it. Exploit it. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Lev Nachman writes: There is a real risk of accidental escalation caused by human error. Part of the worry that many of us have had over the years with the increased number and frequency of PLA jets entering Taiwan’s ADIZ is the potential risk that someone will act irrationally or out of order and that it could snowball into an actual military conflict. With drills happening so close to Taiwan, the risk of error or misreading is higher, though reduced by the time-limited and clearly defined scope of the exercises. – Foreign Policy

Asia

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Saturday that their nations were committed to strengthening their military alliance, and that their governments would need to deal with rising tensions in Asia, including those involving China and Taiwan. – New York Times  

Just a few hours after five Chinese missiles blasted into Japanese waters near Taiwan, the foreign ministers of China and Japan found themselves uncomfortably close together, in the holding room for a gala dinner on Thursday night at a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. – New York Times 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on August 5 to call for dialogue in the conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty 

Efforts by Myanmar’s neighbors to help restore peace and normalcy to the strife-torn Southeast Asian nation were hindered by the country’s recent executions of four political activists, Cambodia’s foreign minister said Saturday. – Associated Press 

Southeast Asian foreign ministers issued a joint statement Friday after a series of meetings in the Cambodian capital criticizing Myanmar for its lack of progress in ending violence there, but with weaker language than several countries had hoped for. – Associated Press 

U.S. President Joe Biden sees strong ties with Pacific Island countries as a priority, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said in the Solomon Islands on Sunday, underscoring the stakes of her visit as tensions have been mounting in the region. – Reuters

Ahead of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this week, there was concern from the White House to Tokyo that the US House Speaker’s trip would spark a crisis at a time when relations with China were already in a dangerous state. – Financial Times 

Editorial: China is Taiwan’s largest trade partner, and Beijing is betting that Taiwanese businesses will push for conciliation with the Mainland if it increases the economic pain. A trade deal with the U.S. would reassure Taiwanese that the U.S. will stay engaged economically. And it would also reassure the rest of Asia, especially Japan and the Asean countries of Southeast Asia, that the U.S. is there to stay. – Wall Street Journal

William Langley, Chan Ho-him, and Thomas Hale write: Further cross-Strait fallout could be devastating for Taiwan’s economy, with 40 per cent of its exports going to China and Hong Kong, according to figures from Capital Economics. China has already announced the suspension of thousands of agricultural imports from the island. – Financial Times 

Graham Allison writes:  But while no rational leader would choose to fight a nuclear war, the history of the Cold War includes a number of confrontations in which leaders chose to take increased risks of war rather than to accept the Soviet seizure of Berlin or the emplacement of nuclear-tipped missiles in Cuba. If the best the current U.S. and Chinese governments can manage is statecraft as usual—which is what we’ve seen this past week—then we should expect history as usual. Tragically, history as usual would mean a catastrophic war that could destroy both. – The National Interest

Africa

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken began a three-country tour of Africa on Sunday at a time of growing U.S. concern about Russia’s clout on the continent and on the heels of a recent trip by Moscow’s top envoy. – Wall Street Journal

Ahead of a trip to Uganda and Ghana this week, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said in an interview that it would be a “listening tour” and that she wanted to find solutions, not assign blame, over a food insecurity crisis intensifying on the African continent since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – New York Times 

Sudan has accused neighboring Chad of a cross-border attack earlier this week that a top commander says killed at least 18 nomads in Sudan’s western Darfur region. – Associated Press

U.N. experts said in a new report that Malian armed forces allegedly carried out an operation with “white-skinned soldiers” near the border with Mauritania in March, shooting and burning at least 33 civilians in one of several operations where the country’s ruling military appeared to work closely with likely Russian mercenaries. – Associated Press 

Mali’s government will integrate 26,000 fighters of a past northern rebellion into its army under a deal with leaders of the former independence movement, the two parties announced following a meeting Friday. – Associated Press 

Senegal’s government has signed a peace agreement with separatist rebels from the southern Casamance region that aims to end more than four decades of conflict. – Associated Press

Rwanda’s government is rejecting a report by United Nations experts saying they have “solid evidence” that members of Rwanda’s armed forces are conducting operations in eastern Congo in support of the M23 rebel group whose deadly resurgence has led to talk of war as well as protests against the U.N. peacekeeping force. – Associated Press

Congo’s government has requested that the spokesman for the United Nations mission in Congo leave the country, saying he has made inappropriate statements amid demonstrations against the presence of the U.N. peacekeepers. – Associated Press

Chad’s transitional authorities and rebel groups are expected to sign an agreement in Doha on Monday paving the way to a broader national reconciliation dialogue later this month, the Qatari foreign ministry said. – Reuters

Mortar shells struck residential neighbourhoods near the presidential palace in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu on Sunday shortly after parliament convened to approve the country’s recently appointed cabinet, underlining the security challenges confronting the new government – Agence France-Presse

Delina Goxho and Yvan Guichaoua write: Creating effective European policies requires acknowledging some basic realities. Crucially, framing policies based solely on European fears is unlikely to meet Sahelians’ aspirations for meaningful change. The days of hubristic foreign-led state-building are over. Building stable future polities in the Sahel necessitates homegrown negotiations in which illiberal insurgents may have to be involved. – Foreign Policy

Cybersecurity

The email and website of the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) – an organization representing millions of businesses – are still down as it tries to recover from a cyberattack that began on Thursday. – The Record

Twitter confirmed Friday that a bad actor used a vulnerability to match private information with potentially anonymous Twitter accounts, posing risks to users privacy. – ​​CyberScoop

On the borderlands of Fort Meade, the U.S. Navy is taking a tandem approach to cyber defense and talent development. Inside an unassuming office building, a few floors up and tucked into a spread of austere rooms, is Operation Cyber Dragon. The brainchild of Chief Warrant Officer Scott Bryson, the hands-on endeavor authorized by U.S. Fleet Cyber Command aims to fix virtual vulnerabilities — shoring up systems bit by bit — while also fostering a new wave of cybersecurity expertise. – C4ISRNet

Long War

In a recent closed-door meeting with leaders of the agency’s counterterrorism center, the CIA’s No. 2 official made clear that fighting al-Qaida and other extremist groups would remain a priority — but that the agency’s money and resources would be increasingly shifted to focusing on China. – Bloomberg 

Three senior commanders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – also known as the Pakistani Taliban — have been killed in a blast in southeastern Afghanistan, dealing a heavy blow to the militant group, sources told RFE/RL Radio Mashaal on August 7. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

The al-Shabab extremist group has exploited Ethiopia’s internal turmoil to cross the border from neighboring Somalia in unprecedented attacks in recent weeks that a top U.S. military commander has warned could continue. – Associated Press 

Tom Mockaitis writes: Although the killing of al-Zawahiri will have negligible effect on the global jihad, it has other important results. It reminds our enemies that the United States has a long memory and a long reach. It also lets the Taliban know that it will pay a price for harboring terrorists. […]Civilians have always died in conflicts, and conventional aircraft cause more casualties by far than drones. Given the persistence of the Islamist threat, more strikes like the one that killed al-Zawahiri are bound to occur. – The Hill