Fdd's overnight brief

August 5, 2024

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

Israel and the U.S. are preparing for an unpredictable Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel as soon as this weekend, as Tehran stonewalls diplomats trying to prevent a regional Middle East war. – Wall Street Journal

Israel has executed a series of daring military operations, including attacks in enemy capitals and commando raids in the heart of the Gaza Strip, that threaten to set off a new escalatory spiral in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal

But now, with the war in Gaza heading into its 11th month, and long-running exchanges of fire with regional militias such as Hezbollah heating up, many of those fighters are close to a breaking point. Exhausted and in some cases demoralized, they are struggling to balance family and work with military service, while the economic toll from their absences mounts. – Wall Street Journal

The deaths in Majdal Shams in late July set off a round of escalating violence that is threatening to push the region to the brink of war. In the village that is home to the Druze community, the rocket strike has stirred anger and exposed a growing generational divide over how involved the community should get in the region’s conflicts. – Wall Street Journal

Dozens of Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza and two people were killed in a stabbing attack by a Palestinian in a Tel Aviv suburb, according to Gazan and Israeli authorities Sunday, in a region on edge over fears of a wider war. – Washington Post

Israeli raids targeting Palestinian militants in the West Bank are taking an enormous toll on daily life in the territory, leaving hundreds dead and neighborhoods destroyed, tactics residents and local fighters say are feeding resentment and causing more unrest. – Washington Post

The Al Jazeera news network dismissed as “baseless allegations” Israel’s claim that one of its journalists killed in an airstrike this week was a Hamas operative. – Washington Post

At first tally, the latest score in the 30-year struggle between Israel and Hamas looks like a devastating one for the Islamist movement, one that throws its future into question. Yet the history of Hamas, the evolution of Palestinian militant groups over the decades and the logic of insurgencies more broadly suggest that not only will Hamas survive, it may even stand to emerge politically stronger. – New York Times

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is pushing back against President Biden over American concerns about the assassination of the political leader of Hamas and Israel’s approach to cease-fire talks in the latest rift between the two allies since the war in Gaza began 10 months ago. – New York Times

Hamas, the group that runs the Gaza Strip, issued a statement on Saturday saying that it has initiated a broad consultation process to select a new leader of its movement following the assassination of its former leader Ismail Haniyeh. – Reuters

The Israeli navy completed this week a successful test of the LRAD long-rang interceptor which is meant to take out a variety of threats, including cruise missiles and rockets, the military said on Friday. – Reuters

An Israeli delegation led by the country’s intelligence chief visited Egypt, seeking to make progress on long-stalled talks over a possible Gaza truce, but returned with no immediate sign of a breakthrough. – Bloomberg

The IDF located on Sunday dozens of underground Hamas tunnel routes in the area by the Philadelphi Corridor, including one that goes three meters high. Soldiers are investigating and neutralizing discovered tunnel routes. They have said that they will destroy all underground routes in the area and work to prevent more of them from being constructed in the future. – Jerusalem Post

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich ordered the seizure on Sunday of around NIS 100 million ($26 million) of tax funds meant to be transferred to the Palestinian Authority, saying that the money would instead be given to the families of terror victims. – Times of Israel

An underground bunker in Jerusalem where senior leaders can remain for an extended period during a war has been prepared by the Shin Bet security service and is fully operational, the Walla news site reported on Sunday, amid fear of attacks on Israel from Hezbollah and Iran. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Furthermore, this assassination aligns with the broader global effort to combat terrorism. The West, particularly nations like the US, which have been victims of terrorism, should understand the necessity of such actions. The fight against terror requires a united front and a willingness to take decisive measures against those who perpetuate violence and chaos. Israel’s alleged targeted killing of Ismail Haniyeh should be viewed not as a provocative act but as a necessary step in the fight against terrorism. – Jerusalem Post

Serge Schmemann writes: Israel, in that case, would pay a heavy price, but Lebanon and Iran a far heavier one. On his recent visit to Washington, Mr. Netanyahu repeatedly referred to the war in Gaza as really a war against Iran and its proxies, and spoke of continuing until full victory. But what “full victory” means and the risks he is willing to take to achieve it remain unclear. All that is clear at this uncharted juncture is that neither all-out war nor an imminent peace is inevitable, and the suspense is tangible. – New York Times

Glenn C. Altschuler writes: If Israel and Hamas agree to a permanent cease-fire, Harris, who has been in on all of President Biden’s phone calls with Netanyahu, can claim a share of the credit. If not — and the prospects dimmed this week after Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh — she is likely to continue to find ways to appeal, more effectively than Biden, to the sizable majority of American voters who sympathize with Palestinians and Israelis and do not have a favorable view of their governments. – The Hill

Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth write: Again, the Biden-Harris Administration’s escalation paralysis is leading our nation’s enemies to escalate. We have witnessed Russia repeatedly do this in Ukraine — and now Iran and its proxies are doing so in the Middle East. There is no limit to Israel’s escalation paradigm. It is a simple matter of survival. They will keep climbing the escalation ladder with Iran, while the Biden-Harris Administration observes and, weighed down by November electoral considerations, objects. – The Hill

Eric Mandel writes: Finally, be flexible in your interpretation of “ending the war” to allow Israel to suppress one of its existential jihadist threats or, in plain terms, win the war. It is counterintuitive to the administration, but pressure on Israel for restraint is an invitation to Iran, Hamas and now, more than ever, Hezbollah in the north to be aggressive, increasing the chance for a multifront war. – The Hill

Dalia Dasse Kaye writes: Ending the war in Gaza would certainly help reduce the daunting threats Israel now faces, although the current round of escalation is unlikely to bring a cease-fire deal or the release of the remaining Israeli hostages any closer. But even an end to the Gaza conflict will not ultimately solve Israel’s bigger strategic dilemma. If Israel still believes that integrating itself more fully into the Middle East by striking normalization deals with its Arab neighbors will marginalize Iranian-backed extremist groups and reduce the hostility toward the country, it must come to terms with the fact that its conflict with the Palestinians constitutes its most fundamental existential threat. – Foreign Affairs

Joshua Yaphe writes: Of course, political leaders ultimately can point to any event as justification for restarting talks if it is framed in the right way, just as they can walk away from peace talks by blaming either side for failing to commit to the process fully. This is merely to say that a peace process is not any sort of definitive sign that the West has once again turned toward the Middle East, having learned the lessons of the Gaza War, with the intention of redoubling efforts to achieve regional peace and security. – The National Interest

Iran

Iran rejected U.S. and Arab efforts to temper its response to the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s top political leader, as authorities were investigating the security breaches that led to the attack. – Wall Street Journal

Iran on Saturday released several details from its investigation into the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, saying the Hamas leader was assassinated by a “short-range projectile” fired from outside the guesthouse where he was staying in Tehran. – Washington Post

The U.S. military is repositioning assets and moving additional forces into the Middle East and Europe to defend against a potential attack on Israel by Iran, U.S. officials said. – Washington Post

Iran has arrested more than two dozen people, including senior intelligence officers, military officials and staff workers at a military-run guesthouse in Tehran, in response to a huge and humiliating security breach that enabled the assassination of a top leader of Hamas. – New York Times

Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi concluded a rare visit to Iran on Sunday with a plea for an end to the escalation of violence and for the region to be able to live in “peace, security and stability”. – Reuters

Iran is not looking to escalate regional tensions but believes it needs to punish Israel to prevent further instability, the country’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. – Jerusalem Post

The Mossad reportedly hired Iranian security agents to plant explosives in rooms where Ismail Haniyeh, former leader of Hamas, was staying, the UK-based newspaper The Telegraph reported on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Mr. Biden could choose one or several. Instead he threatens Israel over what it can’t do. Meanwhile on Friday, Iranian state TV warned that “in the coming hours, the world will witness extraordinary scenes and very important developments.” Mr. Biden is losing control of events as Israel does what it must and Iran does what he lets it get away with. – Wall Street Journal

Alexander Langlois writes: Instead, the likely result of such assassinations is not a weakened “Axis of Resistance” but an angrier, harder-to-predict coalition of actors prepared to use expanded violence to achieve their goals and establish deterrence. This will only produce another escalatory step that further shifts deterrence understandings in ways that could have short and long-term consequences should anyone miscalculate and produce a brutal regional war in the process. – The National Interest

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine said it had sunk a Russian submarine off the coast of occupied Crimea in a missile strike that would be a signature blow against Moscow’s embattled fleet there. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine has received and is already using its first batch of F-16 fighter jets, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday. Their arrival provides the country with a much-needed morale boost in its grinding war against Russia, though experts say they are unlikely to have a major impact on the battlefield. – Washington Post

When a plane touched down at Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport on Thursday evening, a red-carpet arrival welcomed the passengers on the flight from Ankara, Turkey. They were freed Russian prisoners from the West, not celebrities — at least not yet. – Washington Post

Ukraine’s human rights commissioner urged the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the United Nations to investigate an image widely shared online on Saturday that he said likely showed a Ukrainian prisoner-of-war killed and dismembered by Russian forces. – Reuters

A fire at a fuel storage depot in the Kamensky district of Russia’s Rostov region, caused by a Ukrainian drone attack, has been extinguished, the head of the district administration said on Saturday. – Reuters

Ukrainian attacks injured 14 people, including several at a market, in the Russian-held town of Oleshky in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region, a Russia-appointed official said on Sunday. – Reuters

Russian assaults are raising pressure on the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, Ukraine said on Friday, as waves of guided bombs and infantry lead to some of Moscow’s largest territorial gains since the spring. – Reuters

Marc Champion writes: Democracies, of course, run spy networks, kill people and do bad stuff. There are no angels among states. But unlike Putin’s Russia, that does not define them. To live with the rule of law — no matter how imperfect — is a fundamentally different experience than to live without it. Equally, alliances may be awkward and frustrating, but their value is not defined by that frustration, nor solely by what they spend on defense, important as that is. – Bloomberg

Edward Lucas writes:  Ukrainians will also need no reminding of the thousands of prisoners of war, subjected to bestial ill-treatment by their Russian captors. They have spouses, parents, siblings, and offspring yearning for their release, too. Some outside political oomph to speed up prisoner exchanges would be welcome. For now, though, the message to all citizens of Western countries is clear. Do not go to Russia, for any reason. The price is too high. And not just for you. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Hezbollah

Hezbollah said it had launched dozens of rockets at the northern Israeli village of Beit Hillel. Images posted on social media showed Israel’s Iron Dome aerial defense system intercepting some rockets. The Israeli military said several projectiles fell in “open areas,” and one landed in the area of the village but did not injure anyone. It said it responded by hitting the rockets’ launch site. – New York Times

Hezbollah forces on Friday resumed rocket and artillery attacks against Israel, ending the lull along the border following Israel’s killing of the Lebanese group’s military commander in Beirut. – Reuters

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah said it launched a drone attack early Monday on northern Israel that the Israeli military said wounded two Israeli troops and set off a fire. – Associated Press

A source close to Lebanese terror group Hezbollah said late Friday that Israel carried out strikes on a convoy of trucks entering Lebanon from Syria. “Three Israeli strikes targeted a convoy of tanker trucks on the Syrian-Lebanese border in the Hawsh al-Sayyid Ali area, injuring one Syrian driver,” the source told AFP. – Agence France-Presse

A document by the Israel Defense Forces detailing the “Updated Scenario” in the event of an all-out war with Hezbollah was recently shared with northern mayors, The Times of Israel has learned. – Times of Israel

Israel Air Force jets struck overnight a Hezbollah weapon storage facility in addition to terror infrastructure in the Kafr Kila area of southern Lebanon, the military said on Monday. In addition, IDF artillery fired at the areas of Chebaa and Rachaya Al Foukhar in southern Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post

David M. Weinberg writes: Therefore, while Israel can and will negotiate here and there for respites and breaks in the conflicts (and hopefully for freedom for the Hamas-held Israeli hostages), the overall vector is one of long warfare against Iran and its proxies. Patience and resilience are needed for a long struggle. Israel’s enemies certainly understand things this way. Iran’s Khamenei, Hezbollah’s Nasrallah, Hamas’s (now demised) Haniyeh, and the Houthis’ Abdul Malik al-Houthi explicitly have declared the current fighting as the beginning of a long war of attrition which they intend to pursue for as long as it takes until Israel’s elimination. – Jerusalem Post

Rany Ballout writes: Nasrallah portrayed an Israel largely plagued by soldiers’ deaths and injuries and large shortages of weapons and munition, claiming as evidence statements made by Israeli officials and media reports. In further elaborating on the axis’ alleged military achievements, he stressed the asymmetric nature of the axis’ warfare along with Shia doctrine and its emphasis on martyrdom. – The National Interest

Turkey

Turkey blocked access to social media platform Instagram on Friday for failing to comply with the country’s “laws and rules”, a government minister said. – Reuters

Israel’s foreign ministry summoned the deputy Turkish ambassador for a reprimand on Friday after Turkey’s embassy in Tel Aviv lowered its flag to half mast in response to the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. – Reuters

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz blasted Turkey and its president, accusing the latter of supporting Hamas and moving his country towards a dictatorship, in a viral social media post seen by tens of millions. – Haaretz

Samer al-Ahmed writes: The future of the SDF and the self-administration in northeastern Syria largely depends on the Turkish-Syrian normalization path and associated regional and international developments. Given the current complexities and challenges, the SDF needs to adopt flexible strategies to adapt to the various possible scenarios. The SDF’s relationship with international powers, particularly the United States, and its ability to address internal issues, such as relations with local tribes and improvements to governance, remain crucial factors in maintaining the region’s stability and its ability to face future challenges. – Middle East Institute

Lebanon

France and Italy on Sunday urged their citizens in Lebanon to leave the country due to the risk of military escalation in the Middle East, their foreign ministries said. – Reuters

Turkey urged its citizens in Lebanon to leave the country if they do not need to stay, due to the possibility that the security situation there will deteriorate rapidly, its foreign ministry said late on Sunday. – Reuters

Air France said on Saturday it and its affiliate Transavia were further extending their suspensions of flights between Paris and Beirut until at least Aug 6, amid rising regional tensions. – Reuters

According to a Haaretz analysis of satellite images, which matches with estimates by authorities, some 52,000 acres of land burned down in Israel and Lebanon: about 37,000 acres in Israel from Hezbollah attacks and Israel Defense Forces anti-aircraft fire, and around 15,000 acres in Lebanon. – Haaretz

Arabian Peninsula

The United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector expanded at its slowest pace in almost three years in July, a survey showed on Monday, with both output and new order growth easing. – Reuters

Members of Al Islah, an Islamist group affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and based in the United Arab Emirates, have attempted to restore the organization, the Emirati Public Prosecution announced last week. – Jerusalem Post

The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Bin Ahmad Aal Thani, and his ousted father, Hamad bin Khalifa Aal Thani, sat today at the forefront prayers during the funeral of assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the Imam Muhammad bin Abdul Wahhab Mosque in the Qatari capital of Doha. – Jerusalem Post

Yemen

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement said on Sunday that it targeted a Liberia-flagged container vessel in the Gulf of Aden, claiming its first attack on shipping lanes since Israel carried out a retaliatory airstrike in Hodeidah port on July 20. – Reuters

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement downed US drone “MQ-9” over the country’s northern Saada province, two sources from the group told Reuters on Sunday. – Reuters

A merchant vessel was hit by a missile 125 nautical miles east of Yemen’s port of Aden, but “no fires, water ingress, or oil leaks were observed,” and the vessel is proceeding to its next port of call, British maritime agency UKMTO and British security firm Ambrey both confirmed on Saturday. – Reuters

Russia stopped at the last minute a shipment of missiles and other military equipment it planned to deliver to the Houthis last month after pressure from the United States and Saudi Arabia not to do so, numerous sources told CNN on Friday. – Jerusalem Post

Neville Teller writes: At the moment the Houthis are content to act as Iran’s proxy since it accords with their own fervent anti-Israel ideology. But they have their own agenda, namely to take over the rest of government-held Yemen, and then to conquer the area of southern Yemen that has split and declared independence. An extended intra-Yemen struggle lies ahead – a struggle that has nothing to do with the Palestinian cause, and in which anti-Israel military action is irrelevant. – Jerusalem Post

Alexandra Stark writes: Such attacks will continue as long as the Houthis believe that the campaign is benefiting them by spreading the messages they want to send to their domestic constituents, their partners in the Iranian axis of resistance and the West. A U.S. counterinformation campaign could substantially reduce those benefits and make it less worthwhile for the Houthis to continue striking furiously around the region. – Foreign Affairs

Saudi Arabia

Growth in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector eased in July from the previous month, with new orders increasing at the slowest pace in two and a half years, a survey showed on Monday. – Reuters

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised the price for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia in September for the first time in three months, while cutting prices to the other regions. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to postpone a Saudi normalization deal until after the US elections in November, N12 reported on Sunday night, as the region braced for the possibility of an Iranian-Israeli war. – Jerusalem Post

Libya

Libya’s internationally recognised government condemned on Sunday attempts to shut operations at the Sharara oil field, describing them as “political blackmail”. – Reuters

Local protesters have partially shut down Libya’s Sharara oil field, two field engineers told Reuters late on Saturday. The Sharara field, one of Libya’s largest production areas with a capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day, has been a frequent target for several political reasons and demands by local protesters. – Reuters

The Libyan Investment Authority is expecting U.N. sign-off by the end of the year to actively manage its $70 billion in assets for the first time in more than a decade, its chief executive told Reuters. – Reuters

 

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisian opposition parties, presidential candidates and human rights groups have accused the authorities of using “arbitrary restrictions” and intimidation in order to ensure the re-election of President Kais Saied in a vote set for Oct. 6. – Reuters

The Group of Seven major democracies urged restraint and de-escalation in the Middle East on Monday, saying that recent events “threatened to ignite a broader conflict in the region.” – Reuters

The United States is telling its citizens to leave Lebanon and is deploying more military might in the Middle East as preventative and defensive measures, Jonathan Finer, White House National Security Council deputy adviser, said on Sunday. – Reuters

Korean Peninsula

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the delivery of 250 new tactical ballistic missile launchers to frontier troops, state media KCNA reported on Monday, which Seoul said he would use to threaten South Korea. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin has offered humanitarian aid to North Korea, which has been hit by heavy rainfalls and floods, Pyongyang’s state media KCNA said on Sunday. – Reuters

South Korean shares fell for a second straight session on Monday, with trading curbs activated for the first time in four years, as risk appetite dampened across global financial markets on U.S. recession fears. – Reuters

Germany joined the U.S.-led United Nations Command (UNC) in South Korea on Friday, becoming the 18th nation in a group that helps police the heavily fortified border with North Korea and has committed to defend the South in the event of a war. – Reuters

When Ri Il Gyu, North Korea’s No. 2 diplomat in Cuba, finally decided to flee to South Korea in frustration over his highly repressive, corrupt homeland in November, he finished all necessary prep work alone. About a week later, he told his family to be ready to leave Cuba together in less than eight hours. – Associated Press

Louis Rene Beres writes: In this context, the declaration fits perfectly. For Israel to argue against certain existential security threats because they first appear illogical or preposterous would reveal a lethal error in strategic reasoning. In its rapidly escalating struggle against Iran and terrorist proxies, Israel could ultimately have to face a nuclear North Korea as Iran’s state proxy. While the outcome of such a confrontation might be “absurd,” it could still prove injurious beyond any historical measure. – Jerusalem Post

China

Countries around the world are throwing tens of billions of dollars at manufacturing in a race to dominate clean energy, computer chips and other technologies of tomorrow. But when it comes to lavishing support on its favored industries, China is in a league of its own. – Wall Street Journal

It may be fiction, but the show’s bleak assessment of Taiwanese readiness to fight touches upon a very real problem facing President Lai Ching-te, who took office in May and whom Beijing considers a dangerous separatist. – Washington Post

U.S. officials have set up one of the most extensive tech blockades ever attempted, banning the export to China of advanced A.I. chips, which are primarily made by Nvidia, a Silicon Valley firm that is one of the world’s most valuable companies. – New York Times

China’s coast guard said it was monitoring Philippine patrol and fishing vessels that have gathered around the contested Sabina Shoal, citing China’s “indisputable sovereignty” over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. – Reuters

Editorial: Ms. Gallagher adds that raising concerns about Hong Kong’s freedoms under the national security law has now become criminal. And a trial that should have been over by Easter may not be done by Christmas. Mr. Lai’s defense team has also announced that he will testify. It promises to be a powerful moment, given that millions of ordinary Hong Kongers will finally hear from the accused himself. Could that be what the Hong Kong government fears most? – Wall Street Journal

South Asia

Dozens of people were killed on Sunday in protests throughout Bangladesh, as demonstrators called for the resignation of the prime minister after weeks of violent upheaval led by student protesters rocked the country. – Wall Street Journal

Today, as the Taliban is about to mark three years in power, the shine has worn off. The Taliban’s Islamic Emirate isn’t everything Omari dreamed of. Amid political infighting and economic paralysis, even former fighters like him struggle to find work and provide for their family. – Wall Street Journal

Pakistan’s jailed former prime minister, Imran Khan, who blames the military for his ouster and 12-month-old imprisonment on what he calls trumped-up charges, said on Sunday it would be “foolish” not to have “excellent” relations with the army. – Reuters

Unidentified assailants on Friday opened fire on police officers escorting a vehicle that was carrying three judges in Pakistan’s northwest on Friday, killing two officers, police said. The judges escaped unharmed in the attack which was the second one this week in the region. – Associated Press

Cambodia broke ground Monday on a controversial, China-funded canal to link the capital Phnom Penh to the sea, despite environmental concerns and the risk of straining ties with neighboring Vietnam. – Associated Press

Asia

But even as foreign employees become much more visible in Japan, working as convenience store cashiers, hotel clerks and restaurant servers, they are treated with ambivalence. Politicians remain reluctant to create pathways for foreign workers, especially those in low-skill jobs, to stay indefinitely. – New York Times

The attack last month on the village of Lat Pan Hla is a feature of Myanmar’s brutal war strategy. Unable to defeat the rebels on the ground, it has increased its indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets to terrorize the population. The airstrikes have also taken a heavy toll on resistance fighters. But the resistance fighters continue to make gains on the ground. – New York Times

The Philippines and Vietnam will kick off their first-ever joint coast guard exercise in the Manila Bay this week, in line with a commitment by both countries to boost maritime cooperation. – Reuters

New Zealand’s green credentials are at risk as the government rolls back environmental reforms in a bid to boost a flailing economy and fulfil promises made to its voters. – Reuters

Australia “omitted crucial details” when presenting a report into the deaths of seven aid workers in Gaza, Israel’s embassy in Canberra said Monday in a frank diplomatic rebuke. – Agence France-Presse

Europe

British police Sunday battled to contain a series of violent anti-immigration protests that have swept through several major cities in recent days, resulting in vandalized buildings, injured police and several fires in some of the worst unrest to hit the nation in more than a decade. – Wall Street Journal

The Philippines and Germany on Sunday committed to signing a defence cooperation arrangement this year, vowing to uphold international rules-based order in the region as tensions flare over disputed areas of the South China Sea. – Reuters

The far-right favourites to win Austria’s next election have forged an alliance with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban that could deepen defiance of Brussels and threaten already fragile consensus over the Ukraine war if they take power. – Reuters

The UK’s new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is set to meet top Wall Street executives including Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser and Blackstone Inc.’s Steve Schwarzman on a visit to New York. – Bloomberg

Cyprus’s president accepted an invitation to a UN-brokered meeting that will attempt to restart talks on unification of the divided island, although it’s unclear if Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar will agree to attend. – Bloomberg

Martin Ivens writes: Was the “truth” about the suspect’s identity being withheld, he teased? On the BBC the following morning, Brendan Cox (husband of murdered Labour MP Jo Cox) riposted that Farage’s provocative remarks proved he was little more than “Tommy Robinson in a suit.” Tory MPs flirting with the idea of “uniting the right” by merging their defeated party with Reform might care to think again. Farage looks like the affable fellow in the pub who stands his round, but sometimes the mask slips. – Bloomberg

Africa

A suicide bomber detonated explosives outside a hotel in a popular beachfront area in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, before gunmen stormed the building, setting off a four-hour siege that left at least 32 people dead and more than 60 others wounded, the police said on Saturday. – New York Times

Mali is immediately cutting diplomatic ties with Ukraine over comments by a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR) about fighting in its north that killed Malian soldiers and Wagner fighters in late July, it said on Sunday. – Reuters

Sudan on Sunday denied the existence of famine in North Darfur’s Zamzam camp for internally displaced people, while an aid group said there was a risk of a severe shortage of special food designed to treat malnourished children in the camp. – Reuters

Ethiopia will enjoy $4.9 billion in relief from debt repayments when it completes a long-delayed restructuring, State Finance Minister Eyob Tekalign said on Friday, adding that he hopes to sign deals with creditor nations in the coming months. – Reuters

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will visit three African countries this week in an effort to drum up support for Kyiv’s position in its war with Russia, his ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said demonstrations last week that led to the deaths of at least 21 people had a political agenda and were meant to undermine his government. – Bloomberg

Nicholas Kristof writes: Nonetheless, she said, the two Sudanese armed factions “have chosen to let the Sudanese people starve, systematically blocking humanitarian corridors.” She called on them to immediately allow access and to attend peace talks scheduled for this month in Switzerland. Genocide and famine deserve a place on top of the international agenda, and if the armed factions are not listening, we should use every diplomatic and military tool to make them back off and allow humanitarian access. – New York Times

The Americas

Valera says he’s now planning to join the millions of Venezuelans who are already abroad after Maduro claimed victory in a presidential election widely seen as fraudulent and promised a crackdown complete with new prisons and re-education camps. – Wall Street Journal

Venezuela’s opposition candidate likely received more than twice as many votes as President Nicolás Maduro in the country’s election last week, according to a Washington Post review of more than 23,000 precinct-level tally sheets collected by the opposition, a sample that represents nearly 80 percent of voting machines nationwide. – Washington Post

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on Friday with Venezuelan opposition leaders Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado after the South American nation’s disputed presidential election, the State Department said. – Reuters

Relatives of people arrested during protests in Venezuela over the country’s contested presidential election are calling for their release outside police headquarters as political tensions in the South American country remain high. – Reuters

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Seven countries in the hemisphere have recognized President-elect González Urrutia, including Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Panama and the U.S. If the Biden administration and its allies have the will, they have the tools to increase the pressure on Mr. Maduro. Regime bigwigs particularly hate targeted individual sanctions, which prevent them from traveling to the playgrounds of the world and enjoying their ill-gotten gains. The U.S. also can restore policies that restrict the regime’s access to international oil markets. – Wall Street Journal

North America

Canada and the United States have concluded negotiations for an agreement that will allow the use of U.S. space launch technology, expertise and data for space launches in Canada, the Canadian foreign ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

China has lodged complaints with Canada through military and diplomatic channels after a Canadian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait, Chinese defence ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

The Mexican army acknowledged for the first time Friday that some of its soldiers have been killed by bomb-dropping drones operated by drug cartels. – Associated Press

United States

New measures to stem the flow of Chinese migrants into the U.S. over the southern border have set off a scramble of would-be asylum seekers from the world’s second-largest economy, with many spurred to take new risks by the possibility of a second Trump presidency. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration said Friday the government has paused a humanitarian program that admits up to 360,000 people a year from Haiti, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba into the United States to work or seek asylum, after an internal report indicated possible fraud. – Washington Post

The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to propose barring Chinese software in autonomous and connected vehicles in the coming weeks, according to sources briefed on the matter. – Reuters

Vice President Kamala Harris will interview three top candidates – Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, U.S. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro – at her Washington, D.C., residence on Sunday ahead of a final decision on her running mate. – Reuters

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said late Friday that he had agreed with Fox News to debate Democratic presidential candidate US Vice President Kamala Harris on September 4, though it was not immediately clear if Harris had agreed to the debate. – Agence France-Presse

Tom Rogan writes: Germany was always going to cut a deal. Amid insufficient support for NATO and Ukraine, Scholz’s government could not risk a major rupture with Washington by refusing Krasikov’s release. The Germans are notoriously appeasement-minded toward Russia, regardless. Pretending Harris moved the Berlin ball is silly.Burns deserves the credit for getting the Russians to move the ball with America and Germany. – Washington Examiner

Cybersecurity

British authorities have shut down an online platform which allowed criminals to make fraudulent phone calls to steal money from hundreds of thousands of people globally, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said. – Reuters

Design flaws could cause a delay of three months or more in the launch of chip giant Nvidia’s upcoming artificial-intelligence chips, tech-focused publication the Information said on Friday. – Reuters

Parmy Olson writes: The goal is to ride out the competition and eventually raise prices, becoming profitable. But here’s the sticking point for generative AI: There’s still a broad question of how useful it can be to a business’s bottom line, which Gartner says is the main reason for its prediction that 30% of projects will be abandoned by the end of next year. If the technology remains stuck in just dispensing chatbots and summarizing text, it might not be worth even the lower price tags. That is the issue tech companies should perhaps grapple with over others, even cost. – Bloomberg

Defense

Buoyed by an increase in recruiting, the Army will expand its basic combat training in what its leaders hope reflects a turning point as it prepares to meet the challenges of future wars. – Defense News

The U.S. Army’s future long-range aircraft is moving out of technology development and into the critical engineering and manufacturing development phase, the service announced Friday. – Defense News

The Air Force estimates it would cost about $4.5 million to restore nuclear weapon capabilities on approximately 30 B-52 bombers, a calculation that follows proposals from Congress to assess shoring up the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal in the coming years. – Defense News

Long War

Australia raised its nationwide terror alert level to probable on Monday, citing extremism among young people who are turning to racially or religiously inspired violence with little or no warning. – Wall Street Journal

An al Qaeda affiliate in West Africa’s Sahel region has taken two Russian citizens hostage in Niger, according to a video released by the group on Friday. – Reuters

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday revoked plea deals agreed to earlier this week with the man accused of masterminding the Sept. 11 attacks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and two accomplices, who are held at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. – Reuters