Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, who embarked on a path of radical reform that brought about the end of the Cold War, reversed the direction of the nuclear arms race and relaxed Communist Party controls in hopes of rescuing the faltering Soviet state but instead propelled it toward collapse, died Aug. 30 in Moscow. He was 91. – Washington Post

World leaders reacted to the death of Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, in Moscow at the age of 91 on Tuesday, with Western leaders hailing him for opening up the Soviet Union and creating the conditions for the end of the Cold War. – Washington Post

International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors left Kyiv for the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant early Wednesday, pledging to establish a permanent mission there. – Wall Street Journal

After a crescendo of long-range strikes on Russian military facilities and bridges in the dark of night early Monday, Ukrainian forces launched a southern offensive with attacks along the front lines. – Wall Street Journal

Russia shut down its main artery for natural gas to Europe for maintenance on Wednesday, in what Western governments see as the latest salvo in the Kremlin’s economic war on the continent. – Wall Street Journal

The Ukrainian sergeant slid the captured Russian rocket launcher into the center of a small room. He was pleased. The weapon was practically brand-new. It had been built in 2020, and its thermobaric warhead was deadly against troops and armored vehicles. – New York Times

As international nuclear inspectors head toward Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia power plant, they face a situation that few had ever envisioned: a vast nuclear power plant that could be deliberately turned into a potential dirty bomb, with Russia using it to intimidate its enemy and the world. – New York Times

For his first four years in office, President Ronald Reagan had a tough time forging any kind of relationship with his counterparts in the Soviet Union. “They kept dying on me,” he later explained. It fell to his vice president, George H.W. Bush, to attend the funerals. “You die, I fly” became Bush’s wry motto. – New York Times

The day that Russia invaded Ukraine, Feb. 24, the legacy of Mikhail S. Gorbachev loomed over President Vladimir V. Putin’s predawn speech. – New York Times

Russia’s Gazprom stopped the flow of natural gas through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe early Wednesday, a temporary move to it announced in advance. – Associated Press

Suddenly notorious for a scathing first-person account of the war in Ukraine published online, Russian paratrooper Pavel Filatiev arrived in France seeking political asylum Sunday after quitting his country for fear of reprisals. – Agence France-Presse

ExxonMobil is contesting a presidential decree signed by Vladimir Putin earlier this month that it says has stymied its efforts to exit Russia, setting the stage for a potential legal showdown with Moscow. – Financial Times

Russia will not meet the manpower goals for its new military expansion, and is failing to replenish ranks in units fighting in the Russia-Ukraine War, a senior US defense official said in a Monday Pentagon briefing. – Jerusalem Post

Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday as Russia’s invasion of the country drags into its seventh month. – The Hill

President Biden on Tuesday night paid tribute to Mikhail Gorbachev, who died at age 91 earlier that day, referring to the former Russian leader as “a man of remarkable vision.”  – The Hill

Editorial: Under the Geneva Conventions, prisoners of war have rights to humane treatment, access to medical care, and protection from acts of violence, intimidation, insult, public curiosity and reprisal. Soldiers who commit war crimes can be prosecuted and punished, but they can’t be tried merely for participating in combat. Russia is a signatory to the conventions. The kangaroo court in Mariupol is a clear violation, and the latest in a series of broken Russian promises that mark it as global rogue state. – Wall Street Journal

Natan Sharansky writes: In nearly every dictatorship there are dissidents, and from time to time there are also Western leaders willing to risk their political fates to promote human rights abroad. But Gorbachev was a product of the Soviet regime, a member of its ruling elite who believed its ideology and enjoyed its privileges — yet decided to destroy it nevertheless. For that, the world can be grateful. Thank you, Mikhail Gorbachev. – Washington Post

William Taubman writes: One day Russia may resume its tramp toward democracy, and the world may find its way beyond cold war. If and when that happens, Gorbachev will deserve to be hailed as the leader who was present at the creation. – Wall Street Journal

George F. Will writes: The Soviet Union’s brittle husk crumbled as Gorbachev struggled to preserve it. His reputation rests on the world’s amnesia about this: When elevated to general secretary of the Communist Party, Taubman says, Gorbachev claimed to have re-read all 55 volumes of Lenin’s writings, telling a friend, “If you were to read Lenin’s disputes with [the German Marxist Karl] Kautsky, you would understand that they’re far more interesting than a novel.” Of Lenin, the architect of the first totalitarian system, who let loose rivers of blood, Gorbachev said — in 2006 — “I trusted him then and I still do.” – Washington Post

Anton Fedyashin writes: The re-emergence of the vanquished opponent at the forefront of resistance to U.S. hegemony explains the American mainstream media’s “new cold war” narrative. This illusion provides the psychological comfort of a simpler time when two monoliths competed and the United States “won.” […]Indeed, Gorbachev’s call for perestroika in international relations remains more relevant today than ever. Alas, he will not be around to see if it succeeds. – The National Interest

Afghanistan

Retired Gen. Frank McKenzie believes terror groups in Afghanistan have grown, making the United States less safe now than when it departed the Middle Eastern country exactly a year ago. – Washington Examiner

A year ago today, President Biden pulled the final United States soldiers out of Afghanistan, ending America’s longest war. Tens of thousands U.S. allies — Afghans who fought alongside or supported American troops or civilian programs — were left behind. – The Hill

The Taliban declared Wednesday a national holiday and lit up the capital with coloured lights to celebrate the first anniversary of the withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan after a brutal 20-year war. – Agence France-Presse

President Joe Biden faced intense criticism for the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan but one year later both he and the United States have largely turned the page, even as the war-ravaged country still faces mounting challenges. – Agence France-Presse

Shaharzad Akbar writes: The Taliban’s systematic oppression of women will have devastating implications for generations to come. To change the situation in Afghanistan, activists must go beyond knocking on the same doors and hearing only the same halfhearted statements of support. Meanwhile, if the international community continues its desultory approach to women’s rights in Afghanistan, it will lose its credibility on the issue across the globe. – Foreign Affairs

Iraq

Moqtada al-Sadr, the Islamic cleric whose withdrawal from public life triggered deadly clashes in the Iraqi capital this week, condemned his supporters for attacking security forces and called on them to leave the city’s Green Zone. – Wall Street Journal

The drones that attacked a U.S. military compound in southeast Syria on Aug. 15 were launched by Iranian-backed militants in central Iraq, U.S. officials say, posing a challenge for the White House as it seeks to navigate Baghdad’s tumultuous politics. – Wall Street Journal

Oil traders are weighing the threat that violent political unrest in Iraq could disrupt supplies from OPEC’s second-largest producer, whipsawing prices amid broader concern about the global energy crunch. – Bloomberg

A series of rocket attacks on a gasfield in northern Iraq has sent the U.S. contractors working on its expansion packing, dealing a blow to the Kurdish region’s hopes of boosting its revenues and offering a small alternative to Russian gas. – Reuters

Iran reopened its border with Iraq to travellers on Tuesday shortly after Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on his supporters to withdraw from the streets, state media reported. – Reuters

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The Iranian militias continue to control swaths of Iraq and extort people and threaten them and also use Iraq to attack the US, Israel and others. For instance, the US assessed that a drone attack on US forces in Syria likely came from Iraq. Iran uses Iraq as a platform to threaten the region. The violence and chaos in Baghdad only help Iran. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

The U.N. political chief warned Tuesday that failure to resolve Libya’s political crisis and hold delayed elections poses a growing threat in the country, pointing to violent clashes a few days ago that killed at least 42 people and injured 159 others according to Libyan authorities. – Associated Press

Will Israeli gas production at a lucrative eastern Mediterranean natural gas field begin, as was scheduled, in September, or will American mediation between Jerusalem and Hezbollah delay the project?  Negotiations between Israel and the Hezbollah-dominated Lebanese government over the demarcation of a maritime border between the two countries have intensified, and according to Israeli press reports are nearing completion. – New York Sun

The focus of US-negotiated talks to finalize an agreement between Israel and Lebanon has shifted to compensation and gas quantities on each side of the maritime border. – Jerusalem Post

China

A Communist Party congress that is poised to anoint Xi Jinping as China’s top leader for another five years will open in Beijing on Oct. 16, officials announced on Tuesday. – New York Times

China’s powerful cyberspace regulator has taken the first step in a pioneering—and uncertain—government effort to rein in the automated systems that shape the internet. – Wall Street Journal

Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will meet with mainland officials Thursday, as pressure mounts on the finance hub to reopen both its international and Chinese borders. – Bloomberg

Ai Weiwei writes: In the interim, there are many things — poetry, art, calligraphy, Daoism, cuisine and more — that “sons and daughters of the Chinese nation” around the world might proudly identify with. It is an odd choice to pin one’s identity to a self-serving and corrupt group that stands atop a brutal historical record. – Washington Post

Joseph Bosco writes: But we have long been in a permanent confrontation with Communist China, always on the defensive. Given the consummate failure of Kissinger’s engagement policies and the need to avoid all-out kinetic war, going on the offensive to achieve peaceful regime change in China is the only escape from the world’s dangerous dilemma. An overt and covert information campaign directed at the people of China, with whom America has no quarrel, urgently needs to begin. – The Hill

Henry Sokolski and Thomas D. Grant write: China also could be encouraged to adhere to its 1997 voluntary agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to file annual reports on its civilian plutonium holdings, production and plans. Beijing has not reported since 2017. Other initiatives are possible but only if the surprising, and welcome, consensus between the Trump and Biden administrations on China and the NPT continues and grows.  – The Hill

Europe

Russia is set to shut its key Nord Stream natural-gas pipeline Wednesday for maintenance, leaving Europe guessing again about whether supplies will restart, as temperatures fall and demand for the fuel grows. – Wall Street Journal

European foreign ministers will assess options for restricting visas for Russians this week amid a sharp divide over whether to stop Russian civilians entering the bloc. – Wall Street Journal

Poland will more than double military spending next year, to as much as 138 billion zloty ($29 billion), in an effort to strengthen its defenses in the face of the war in neighboring Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Eastern EU states bordering Russia have threatened to adopt “national measures” to slash the number of Russian citizens entering their countries and the bloc’s free-travel Schengen zone if the EU fails to agree on a collective approach. – Financial Times

Sylvie Kauffmann writes: For the time being, France and Germany still feel strong enough to resist Warsaw’s challenge to EU treaties.But there is another potential wild card. Victory for the far right in the Italian election on September 25 could see Europe’s fluctuating power dynamics shift still further. – Financial Times

Ana Krstinovska writes: China’s presence in North Macedonia generally fits into the broader pattern of Chinese activities in the Western Balkans and CEE region. One salient difference is that the country remains outside the EU, which provides a more fertile ground for China’s influence for several reasons. […]Such efforts, largely supported by Chinese propaganda and influence operations, have helped to boost North Macedonians’ views of China in recent years. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Latin America

Progress in relaunching oil major Chevron Corp’s (CVX.N) operations in Venezuela under U.S. sanctions on the country depends on licenses from Washington, Venezuelan oil minister Tareck El Aissami said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Editorial: There is broad consensus in Chile that a new constitution is needed. This deeply flawed draft is not the solution. Instructing Congress to appoint a fresh constitutional convention would be a better course. That would be more likely to deliver the future prosperity and fairer society to which Chileans rightly aspire. – Financial Times

Eduardo Porter writes: A good place to start would be for the US to re-engage with its neighbors in the Western Hemisphere, offering an alternative to the Chinese opportunity in terms of trade and investment. Latin American countries would seem natural candidates to host some of the value chains that policy makers in the US want to yank away from China. But just as Beijing has greased its relationships by offering to finance investments in infrastructure from Patagonia to the Atacama desert, Washington has to offer real carrots – financing, market access – if it hopes to reshape globalization to its advantage. – Bloomberg

Christopher Sabatini writes: The need to expand diplomatic networks is compounded by the fact that many of the displaced old-school elites maintain ties to diplomats and policymakers in the north. Those connections give them a direct line to shape diplomats’ views of politics in their home countries, an advantage many of the newly elected leaders lack. The result, understandably, is mutual suspicion over interpretations and motives. Foggy Bottom, Ottawa, and Whitehall need to adapt to what is likely to be the political reality in Latin America for the foreseeable future. – Foreign Affairs

Cybersecurity

The U.S Department of Treasury and Israel’s Ministry of Finance finalized the terms of their new bilateral agreement that aims to fortify cyber resilience in both countries’ networks, and further extends an existing tech-centric bilateral agreement. – Defense One

The White House has been conducting classified cybersecurity briefings with executives from select critical infrastructure sectors as part of an ongoing effort to compel industry leaders to invest more in their digital defenses. – CyberScoop

A Chinese-based cyberespionage group targeted Australian officials with reconnaissance malware to siphon off details about the victims hackers could use to execute more targeted strikes, researchers with cybersecurity firm Proofpoint and the PwC Threat Intelligence team said in joint research published Tuesday. – CyberScoop