Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

A multipronged Israeli military offensive targeting gunmen in the West Bank is highlighting how deteriorating conditions in the Palestinian territory are posing complex, new demands for an army already stretched thin by the war in Gaza and an escalating conflict on the Lebanese border. – Wall Street Journal

The World Health Organization said Thursday that Israel has agreed to successive “humanitarian pauses” in military operations in Gaza, beginning Sunday, to allow more than 640,000 children there to be given oral polio vaccinations amid an outbreak of the virus. – Washington Post

The Israeli military’s rescue of a hostage from an underground tunnel in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday highlighted one of the biggest remaining impediments to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of eradicating Hamas: the enclave’s vast and complicated subterranean network that shelters many of the militant group’s remaining leaders. – New York Times

Israeli troops killed a local commander of the Iranian-backed Islamic Jihad movement in the West Bank and four other militants on Thursday in a gunbattle during one of the largest assaults in the Israeli-occupied territory for months. – Reuters

Israel told the United States that an initial review found that shots were fired at a World Food Programme (WFP) vehicle in the Gaza Strip after a “communication error” between Israeli military units, the deputy U.S. envoy to the United Nations said on Thursday. – Reuters

Israel’s defense minister on Thursday called for the expansion of the stated goals of the war in Gaza to include enabling residents to return to communities in northern Israel that have been evacuated due to attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Reuters

Families of Israeli hostages being held in the Gaza Strip protested near the border on Thursday, demanding a deal to secure their release and at one point made a dash to try to cross into the coastal enclave. – Reuters

Eleven government ministers joined Minister Orit Strock’s call on Thursday not to allow visits by representatives of the Red Cross to the Nukhba terrorists imprisoned in Israel. – Jerusalem Post

The Hamas terror group’s Rafah Brigade had “collapsed” as a result of the Israel Defense Forces’s ongoing offensive in the city in the southern Gaza Strip, military sources said on Thursday. – Times of Israel

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday called on Israel to cease its military operation in the West Bank, amid a large-scale counterterrorism operation launched by the Israel Defense Forces this week that is expected to last at least several days. – Times of Israel

The Israeli military said on Thursday that Hamas manipulated public opinion poll results it sent to a respected polling institution in order to falsely inflate public support. – Haaretz

Editorial: Descending into a Hamas tunnel, where Mr. Al-Qadi was held, is as dangerous a military mission as one can undertake. But it’s no surprise that elite Israeli soldiers would take the risk to themselves to rescue the hostages, whether Jew or Arab. At least four other Muslim Israelis remain in Hamas captivity 10 months later, and Israeli soldiers would risk their lives to rescue them as they did to free Mr. Al-Qadi. – Wall Street Journal

David Schenker writes: While Israel’s inclination to intensify the campaign in Lebanon is at odds with Biden administration efforts to de-escalate, the strategy has merit. Hezbollah started this conflict, but Israel won’t play by Hezbollah’s rules. Whether by negotiations or by force of arms, Israel won’t return to the pre-Oct. 7 status quo along its border. In his speech after Hezbollah’s Aug. 25 attack on Israel, Mr. Nasrallah told his followers, “At this current stage, the country [Lebanon] can take a breath and relax.” His advice is premature. – Wall Street Journal

James Stavridis writes: There is a middle path between a return to the pre-Oct. 7 status quo and an all-out regional war. The first essential component is diplomatic and consists of upgrading the Abraham Accords to an “Abraham Alliance” — creating a strategic triangle between the US, Israel and the Arab world […] Tehran won’t like it, but it’s unlikely to initiate a full-scale regional conflict on behalf of the Houthis and Hezbollah. The strategic choices Israel makes in the next few months will be vital to its long-term prospects — and to avoiding a war across the Middle East with fraught global implications. – Bloomberg

Russia & Ukraine

Georgian defenses collapsed within days of Russia’s invasion in 2008. Moscow-backed militias killed and rampaged in the countryside as Russian tanks roared unopposed on the highway to capital Tbilisi. – Wall Street Journal

Russian authorities have reacted with unusual fury to the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by French authorities. Telegram is more than a mere social-media app to Moscow. Russian soldiers and spies depend on it for battlefield communications, including the guidance of artillery, the coordination of movements and intelligence gathering. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian forces struck two oil depots within Russia overnight, while Moscow on Thursday launched the third major aerial attack on Ukraine this week — the latest in strikes by the two sides on each other’s energy infrastructure, causing electricity cutoffs throughout Ukraine and raising the prospect of a bleak winter for its people. – Washington Post

A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet crashed, killing its pilot, as it was fending off a barrage of Russian missiles, Ukraine’s military said Thursday. – Washington Post

A military court in Moscow placed Pavel Popov, a former deputy defence minister, in detention on Thursday on suspicion of fraud in the latest of a string of corruption probes of officials tied to ex-defence minister Sergei Shoigu. – Reuters

Ukraine’s top commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday he spent several days on the eastern Pokrovsk front and described fighting there as “exceptionally tough”. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Mongolia next week, the Kremlin said Thursday, despite the country being a member of the International Criminal Court, which last year issued a warrant for his arrest. – Associated Press

Timothy Ash writes: The reality is that the G7 and IMF are just not being serious or transparent about Ukraine’s financing needs. But reality will return, as it always does, and the West will be forced to act. Those frozen Russian assets are never returning to Kremlin control. They are a downpayment for all the blood and sacrifice Ukraine has spent to keep the Kremlin’s imperial project at bay.  Why not just say so and get on with it? – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

Iraq’s air defences shot down a Turkish drone on Thursday in Iraqi air space over the northern city of Kirkuk, four police and army sources said. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia issued royal decrees announcing changes to the heads of its joint forces, navy and land forces, state news agency SPA reported on Thursday. – Reuters

OPEC on Thursday said that Iraq presented clear and determined steps to compensate for over-produced volumes of oil and gave assurances that it would achieve full conformity going forward. – Reuters

A United Arab Emirates official said on Thursday the government was in contact with French authorities and representatives of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, who is a UAE citizen. – Reuters

More than half of Libya’s oil production, or about 700,000 barrels per day, was offline on Thursday and exports were halted at several ports as a standoff between rival political factions over the central bank and oil revenue threatens to end a four-year period of relative peace. – Reuters

The Tunisian Administrative Court upheld on Thursday an appeal by prominent candidate Mondher Znaidi, thereby allowing him to return to the presidential race expected on Oct. 6, a judicial official told Reuters, in the second such ruling this week. – Reuters

An Algerian court on Thursday released opposition figure Fethi Ghares and his wife under judicial supervision pending an investigation into the alleged insulting of President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and other charges, his lawyer said. – Agence France-Presse

China

Chinese leader Xi Jinping used a meeting with U.S. national-security adviser Jake Sullivan to push for stability in ties between the two global powers, seeking to define the relationship in ways that favor Beijing as the U.S. presidential election draws near. – Wall Street Journal

China’s coast guard urged the Philippines on Thursday to stop sending missions to resupply a vessel near a contested shoal in the South China Sea, warning that such “adventurous actions” could trigger unspecified incidents. – Reuters

Chinese lenders approved loans worth $4.61 billion to Africa last year, marking the first annual increase since 2016, an independent study showed on Thursday. – Reuters

Karishma Vaswani writes: All of this depends on Xi accepting US overtures, and there is no guarantee of that. But autocratic regimes tend to soften at some point. As the Chinese martial strategist Sun Tzu wrote in The Art of War: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.” The US should to start preparing for the country’s next chapter. Xi can’t rule forever. – Bloomberg

Asia

Typhoon Shanshan deluged large parts of Japan with torrential rain on Friday, prompting warnings for flooding and landslides hundreds of miles from the storm’s centre, halting travel services and shutting production at major factories. – Reuters

East Timor’s independence was a gift to the world because it showed conflict could be resolved through negotiation, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday, the 25th anniversary of its vote to separate from Indonesia. – Reuters

The president of New Caledonia’s Congress, Roch Wamytan, an indigenous Kanak who had criticised France’s handling of civil unrest in the French Pacific territory, has been replaced after narrowly losing a vote to “middle way” candidate Veylma Falaeo. – Reuters

Indonesia and Australia signed a defense agreement on Thursday that both sides described as a significant upgrade to their military relationship. – Associated Press

Thailand’s oldest political party will join the ruling coalition led by former rival Pheu Thai Party, as new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra finalizes her cabinet lineup. – Bloomberg

Former Taiwan presidential candidate Ko Wen-je said he was temporarily stepping down as leader of the opposition party he founded, a move that comes as authorities probe his handling of election funds. – Bloomberg

David Fickling writes: In a wildly diverse region, there are quite as many island governments that have welcomed the contest for their diplomatic favor as have spurned Beijing’s overtures. Pacific leaders want to see allies that listen to their priorities on climate, development and migration. If their larger neighbors can’t match those words to actions, they’ll look to other partners instead. – Bloomberg

Africa

Namibia plans to cull more than 700 wild animals, including dozens of elephants and hippos, and distribute the meat to help locals struggling under what the United Nations has called the worst drought to affect the country in 100 years. – Washington Post

South Africa is getting to grips with reforms that could lift its economic potential, its central-bank governor said on Thursday, adding that success tackling a longstanding power crisis could spur progress in other sectors. – Reuters

An al Qaeda-linked group said it killed nearly 300 people in Saturday’s devastating attack in north-central Burkina Faso, but said it targeted militia members linked to the army, not civilians, the U.S. consultancy Site Intelligence Group reported. – Reuters

Ghana on Thursday signed an agreement with a U.S. developer for a nuclear reactor using technology from NuScale Power, the U.S. State Department said on Thursday, as the country seeks its first atomic power plant. – Reuters

Nigeria and Niger have signed a deal to boost their security cooperation, the Nigerian military said on Thursday, despite tensions between the neighbours since a coup in Niger a year ago. – Reuters

Human Rights Watch has accused both sides in Sudan’s more than 16-month conflict of committing war crimes, including summary executions, torture, and the mutilation of bodies. – Agence France-Presse

Yasir Zaidan writes: Some actions have already been taken. The Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights is campaigning to hold the UAE accountable in the International Court of Justice or through other legal avenues, such as in Germany or the European Court of Human Rights. Additionally, the International Criminal Court should leverage its existing jurisdiction over Darfur to prosecute crimes against humanity in the region. But more must be done. A concerted, unified international effort to address the root causes of the conflict could pave the way for lasting peace and stability and alleviate the suffering of the Sudanese people. – Foreign Policy

United States

The Department of Homeland Security said Thursday that it has restarted a program that allows 30,000 migrants per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela to enter the United States legally by submitting an application through a U.S.-based sponsor. – Washington Post

Kamala Harris vowed a tougher approach to migration along the U.S. southern border and said she would not withhold weapons to Israel, in her first interview with a major news organization since becoming the Democratic nominee for president. – Reuters

The United States is pushing China to break a longstanding resistance to nuclear arms talks, seeing a “limited opportunity” for early two-way conversations on the superpowers’ approach to the issue, a senior Biden administration official said. – Reuters

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai on Thursday gave a strong endorsement to Canada’s decision to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25% on Chinese steel and aluminum as she finalizes U.S. duties planned at similar rates. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: Put simply, the time for American action is now. The Philippines is a historic ally that is facing unmistakable aggression by China. Beijing clearly senses that America is distracted and unwilling to bear contemplation of hard choices. The U.S. must decisively alter that perception. If not, Washington should wave goodbye to the Pacific alliance structure and all the great prosperity and peace that it has long proffered. – Washington Examiner

Nadav Pollak writes: Whether this war will happen under this administration or the next one, Washington must treat this scenario as the most probable, think about ways to limit the impact of such a war on the entire region and come up with effective mechanisms to end such a war that will benefit both the U.S. and Israel. – The Hill 

Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth write: It’s time for Washington to get firmly behind Zelensky and his generals and bring this war to a just conclusion. Absent Biden’s own plan to win the war or a clearly defined definition for victory, the Harris-Biden administration would be well served to listen and act on the Zelensky proposal. Ukraine deserves its Yorktown moment. – New York Post

Defense

American forces are ready with a “range of options” to deal with increasing acts of aggression in the disputed South China Sea if ordered to carry them out jointly and after consultations with treaty ally the Philippines, a U.S. admiral said Thursday. – Associated Press

The Air Force wants to expand its international exchange program for enlisted airmen to improve cooperation between allies in case of a major war in the Pacific. – Defense News

It seemed like a long shot: soldiers using small drones with MacGyvered tech that cost less than $100 to serve as decoys to divert the attention of a highly capable enemy. – DefenseScoop

New planning guidance from the Marine Corps’ top officer puts a premium on modernizing the service’s command-and-control capabilities to create more lethal “kill webs” for the joint force. – DefenseScoop