Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Almost a year into the war in Gaza, foreign investment in Israel has slowed, economic growth is sluggish and thousands of businesses here have folded. But it is boom times for the country’s biggest airline, El Al Israel Airlines. – Wall Street Journal 

Israeli commandos were combing tunnels in southern Gaza when they made a startling discovery: an Israeli Bedouin who had been taken hostage on Oct. 7, alone and unguarded. – Wall Street Journal

President Joe Biden approved the plan for delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza via a floating military pier despite warnings from within the U.S. government that rough waves could pose significant challenges and objections from officials who feared the operation would detract from a diplomatic push to compel Israel to open additional land routes into the war zone, according to an inspector general report published Tuesday. – Washington Post  

The rescue of a hostage on Tuesday from southern Gaza brought to eight the number of captives the Israeli military has freed out of the approximately 250 abducted in the Hamas-led attacks last Oct. 7. – New York Times

The United States remains committed to defending Israel in any Iranian attack, and was hopeful about a possible Gaza ceasefire agreement, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Tuesday. – Reuters

United Nations aid operations in the Gaza Strip continued on Tuesday, a day after a senior U.N. official said humanitarian efforts had ground to a halt because new Israeli evacuation orders forced the shutdown of the main U.N. operations center. – Reuters

Israeli strikes in the West Bank killed at least nine people, Palestinian health authorities said on Wednesday, in a major operation in the occupied territories. – Reuters

The latest flurry of Gaza cease-fire talks — the back-and-forth over now-familiar sticking points and appeals from around the world — obscures a grim truth about the monthslong efforts to end the Israel-Hamas war and free scores of hostages. – Associated Press

The darkness that fell over Israel earlier this year underlined the vulnerability of the country’s energy system. – Politico

The emotional firestorm in Israel around the Netanyahu government’s planning of an official state memorial ceremony on the anniversary of the devastating October 7 attacks feels tragically appropriate. – Haaretz

One of the terrorists killed in a joint IDF and Shin Bet operation on Monday in the Nur Shams area, along with four other terrorists, had been released as part of the hostage deal in November 2023, the IDF confirmed on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post

The Biden administration on Tuesday accused National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir of “sowing chaos” and “undermining Israel’s security” in its harshest critique yet of the hardline cabinet member. – Times of Israel

Israel’s government is funding an online ad campaign aimed at convincing potential donors to the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees to reconsider their contributions by highlighting allegations of ties to terrorists, a report said on Monday. – Times of Israel

Nearly 30,000 people have immigrated to Israel since October 7, the head of the World Zionist Organization said Tuesday, marking a sharp reversal after immigration numbers fell off a cliff in the months following the Hamas attack. – Times of Israel

An Israeli delegation is expected to travel to Doha on Wednesday to attend ongoing negotiations for a hostage release-ceasefire deal after talks in Cairo on Sunday ended with neither Israel nor Hamas agreeing to several compromises presented by mediators who are attempting to bridge the gaps between the two sides. – Times of Israel

Air France, Aegean, and several other airlines will resume their flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut on Tuesday after a two-day halt following Israel’s preemptive strike on Hezbollah Sunday and the terror group’s subsequent barrage of rockets and drones at Israel. – Times of Israel

Foreign Minister Israel Katz says Israel should consider ordering West Bank Palestinians to move temporarily as it embarks on a major anti-terror raid in the northern West Bank. – Times of Israel

The shift away from Israel among several major unions has been years, if not decades, in the making. Bob Bussel, director of the Labor Education and Research Center at the University of Oregon, attributed the shift in part to historical realities: the death of the two-state solution after the Oslo era and the Second Intifada, and an entrenched right-wing government in Israel. – Jewish Insider

Gil Troy writes: That’s why Israeli-accented shouts of “Bring Them Home” fall short. Rather than campaigning in Israel – which raises the price Hamas demands and divides the country – hostage champions should deploy abroad, appealing to other democrats’ consciences, as Jon and Rachel did, to free these hostages from 23 countries, representing so many world religions. – Jerusalem Post

Shoshana Bryen writes: Israel will have to make the determination that serves its security interests. It would be in the interest of the United States and the Palestinian people to support a strong Israeli presence and control of the border to help break the control of the territory and the people of Gaza by Hamas. – Algemeiner 

Ben Fishman, Hanin Ghaddar, Assaf Orion, and Dennis Ross write: Continue exerting maximum effort to neutralize (or at least constrain) Hamas for the long term by reaching a ceasefire in Gaza. This entails agreements with Israel and Egypt on the future of the Philadelphia Corridor in southern Gaza; otherwise Hamas will simply rearm and rebuild again across this porous border area. Such agreements will probably necessitate American assurances to each side and the president’s direct involvement to close a deal. – Washington Institute

Russia & Ukraine

Ukraine said for the first time that it used U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters to intercept drones and missiles as Russia unleashed a massive volley of attacks across Ukraine, battering infrastructure and eroding the country’s air defenses for a second consecutive day. – Wall Street Journal

Gaurav Srivastava dreamed of being a player in the murky world of clandestine operations. His goal was to build a private military and intelligence operation, funded by natural resources, he told business partners. It would be akin to the notorious Wagner Group, only with the blessing of the U.S. instead of Russia. Leaving associates with the impression he had high-level contacts in the intelligence community, he said he wanted to do business in difficult places and muscle bad guys out of strategic markets. – Wall Street Journal

In the darkness of the cellar in the eastern Ukrainian town of Toretsk, the soldiers did not know how close the Russian glide bombs were landing. But the sudden change in air pressure that accompanied bone-rattling booms testified to the bombs’ destructive force as they tore into nearby buildings. – New York Times

The barrage of airstrikes that Russia launched against Ukraine over the past two days, with hundreds of drones and missiles, provided punishing evidence of Moscow’s enduring military might. – New York Times

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that this month’s lightning-fast incursion into Russia — where almost 600 Russian soldiers have been captured so far — is part of a larger plan to end the war in his country. – Washington Post

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that the war with Russia would eventually end in dialogue, but that Kyiv had to be in a strong position and that he would present a plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and his two potential successors. – Reuters

Russian forces are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, prompting some residents to evacuate for fear it will fall in the coming weeks. – Reuters

Russia launched missile and drone attacks targeting scores of Ukrainian regions and killing at least six people, officials said on Tuesday, a day after Moscow’s biggest air attack of the war on its neighbour. – Reuters

Russia said the West was playing with fire by considering allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with Western missiles and cautioned the United States on Tuesday that World War Three would not be confined to Europe. – Reuters

Ukraine will hold a meeting with ambassadors from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on Wednesday to discuss the current situation in the country. – Bloomberg

Monitors from the United Nations atomic watchdog said Rosatom Corp. is elevating the risk of a radiological emergency by continuing to operate a nuclear power plant on Russian soil that’s near territory seized by Ukraine this month. – Bloomberg

The EU would consider training soldiers in Ukraine “should the necessary political and operational conditions be met,” according to an EU External Action Service document seen by POLITICO. – Politico

The election of Donald Trump in November will cause uncertainty over future U.S. support for Kyiv in the war Russia started, a Kremlin propagandist has said. – Newsweek

Stephen Biddle writes: With that in mind, Kyiv’s partners should now ask whether the modest military benefits are worth the escalatory risk. The answer will turn on assessments of the likelihood of expanding the conflict, and on the risk tolerance of Western governments and publics. The latter is ultimately a value judgment; military analysis alone cannot dictate where to draw the line. What it can do is forecast the battlefield consequences of policy decisions. If the West lifts its restraints on Ukrainian deep strike capability, the consequences are unlikely to include a decisive change in the trajectory of the war. – Foreign Affairs

Afghanistan

The United Nations human rights chief on Tuesday called for Afghanistan’s Taliban to immediately repeal a set of “egregious” laws that it said were attempting to turn women into shadows. – Reuters

New laws by Afghanistan’s Taliban government, which include banning women from speaking or showing their faces in public, sparked global condemnation and could potentially jeopardize the regime’s efforts to gain legitimacy. – Bloomberg

Former Trump national security adviser H.R. McMaster told CNN on Monday that part of the blame for the botched U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan rests on former President Trump’s shoulders. – Fox News

John J. Waters writes: Having poured ourselves into a cause that never should have been, the patriotism of youth is overtaken by the uncertainty of living in an America that is not what it claims to be. The mission vacated, many veterans no longer know who we are, or who we were, or why we did the things we did. We broke promises to our Afghan partners, but more importantly to those killed and wounded, and to their families. – National Interest

Zachary B. Wolf writes: There is no doubt the Afghanistan withdrawal was a failure. An official After Action Review report from the State Department identified issues in both the Biden and Trump administrations that contributed. – CNN

Libya

More than a decade after the US, European and Arab governments helped Libyans overthrow their tyrannical ruler Moammar Al Qaddafi, a lasting peace remains elusive. The country is split between two governments, with disputes running the risk of spiraling into violence. – Bloomberg

U.S. Africa Command General Michael Langley and Chargé d’affaires Jeremy Berndt met Libyan National Army Commander Khalifa Haftar, the U.S Embassy in Libya said on social media platform X on Tuesday. – Reuters

Several oilfields across Libya have halted output as closures spread, engineers said on Tuesday, amid a dispute over control of the central bank and oil revenue. – Reuters

Libyan oil output dropped as authorities in the OPEC member’s east enforced a shutdown, escalating a crisis the United Nations warned runs the risk of collapsing the economy. – Bloomberg

China

U.S. President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan started his second day of meetings with top Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday, aimed at quieting tensions between the two superpowers ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. election. – Reuters 

China strongly condemns the attacks in Pakistan and will continue to give strong support to the country in anti-terrorism action, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday at a regular press briefing. – Reuters 

Alicia Chavy writes: China’s aggressive push into investing in quantum technologies and the current strains on the resources of public and private sector entities when it comes to combating cyber threats highlight the need for greater regional and global collaboration. The Middle East, along with its allies and partners and global tech companies, must unite to strengthen cybersecurity measures and standards, invest in PQC solutions, and support quantum research. This strategic investment will bolster regional cybersecurity defenses and position the Middle East as a significant player in the global quantum technology landscape. – Middle East Institute

Asia

An Army private who crossed into North Korea without permission last year will plead guilty to desertion and other charges, according to his attorney. – Washington Post  

Leaders of several Pacific Islands said on Wednesday they have endorsed an Australian-funded A$400 million ($271 million) plan to improve police training and create a mobile regional policing unit, as Canberra looks to reduce China’s security footprint in the area. – Reuters

Indonesia’s largest party unexpectedly named President Joko Widodo’s cabinet secretary as its candidate in November’s Jakarta gubernatorial election, ending speculation that the party would back the president’s top critic. – Bloomberg

The Republic of Palau, an island nation in the Western Pacific, has temporarily suspended the registration of three liquefied natural gas carriers that were recently sanctioned by the US over links to Russian gas exports. – Bloomberg

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. defended police operations that sought to arrest a pastor with close ties to former leader Rodrigo Duterte’s family, in the latest disagreement between the country’s two most powerful clans. – Bloomberg

The US is willing to accompany Philippine vessels during resupply missions in the disputed South China Sea amid recurring confrontations with Chinese ships, according to a senior military official. – Bloomberg

Africa

After a new tax increase incited weeks of deadly riots in Kenya early this summer, President William Ruto announced that he was reversing course. He abandoned the finance law he had proposed, and then he shook up his cabinet. – New York Times

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a visit to China next week to discuss cooperation on the economy, agriculture and satellite technology, a Nigerian government spokesperson said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A United Nations Security Council committee is considering sanctioning two generals with Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for threatening the country’s peace, security, or stability, including through violence and human rights abuses. – Reuters

Namibia blocked a vessel that it suspected was carrying weapons destined for Israel from docking at its Walvis Bay port, citing concerns over international law and its support for the Palestinian cause, the New Era reported, citing Justice Minister Yvonne Dausab. – Bloomberg

U.N. agencies on Tuesday raised the alarm about the spread of mpox in Democratic Republic of Congo’s refugee camps where people are more susceptible to infection because of depleted immune systems and cramped living conditions. – Reuters 

The U.S. has restarted talks over the future of its armed forces in Chad — the latest African country to express doubt over its relationship with the American military. – Defense News

North America

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico said on Tuesday that his government was “pausing” relations with the United States Embassy in response to criticism by the U.S. ambassador over the president’s push in the final weeks of his six-year term to make changes to the judiciary, potentially forcing thousands of judges from their jobs. – New York Times

Canadian police have warned an aide to a Sikh leader who was assassinated in British Columbia last year, of an increased threat to his life, a prominent Sikh separatist said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Mexico’s traditional and Indigenous community police forces are coming under increasingly deadly fire from drug cartels, authorities said Monday. – Associated Press

A former head of investigations for Mexico’s Attorney General’s Office told officials investigating the 2014 disappearance of 43 students that the so-called “historic truth” presented to the public weeks later was cooked up by the highest ranking authorities in the government during meetings presided over by then-President Enrique Peña Nieto, a Mexican news outlet reported Monday. – Associated Press

Cybersecurity

Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said it was improper for the Biden administration to have pressured Facebook to censor content in 2021 related to the coronavirus pandemic, vowing that the social-media giant would reject any such future efforts. – Wall Street Journal

This month, X closed its Brazil operations after one of its executives was threatened with arrest for not taking down certain content. Last year, Changpeng Zhao, the founder of Binance, pleaded guilty to federal money-laundering violations that took place on his cryptocurrency platform. In 2021, Twitter executives in India faced arrest over posts that the government wanted removed from the site. – New York Times

A Chinese hacking group exploited a software bug to compromise several internet companies in the U.S. and abroad, a cybersecurity firm said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A group of Democratic lawmakers are pushing the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to increase regulation on artificial intelligence (AI) deepfakes following the release of the social platform X’s chatbot Grok. – The Hill

National headlines, federal advisories, and the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology warn of unprecedented threats by nation-state actors, criminals, and terrorists as digital connections create access to networks that could endanger the health and safety of every American. – CyberScoop

The U.S. Department of State is offering a reward of up to $2.5 million for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Belarusian national Volodymyr Kadariya, who is suspected of involvement in a “significant malware organization.” – The Record

The U.S. Marshals Service said it has looked into recent data theft claims made by a prominent ransomware gang and determined none of the data is from a new incident. – The Record