Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

An Iranian-flagged vessel loaded a cargo of alumina in Venezuela this month after delivering supplies for an Iranian supermarket in the South American nation, three sources familiar with the shipment said, in the latest sign of closer ties between the U.S.-sanctioned nations. – Reuters

Four U.S. men have been charged by U.S. authorities with conspiring to evade economic sanctions against Iran by selling Iranian oil to Chinese buyers for a potential profit of $28 million a month. – Reuters

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Thursday stressed the “important responsibility” of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in keeping the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the name of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. – Arutz Sheva

Under the pressure of U.S. measures aimed at crippling its economy, however, Iran has grown ever closer to America’s principal rival, China, and vice versa. The two are said to be contemplating a 25-year strategic partnership. – Bloomberg

The United States and most of the rest of the U.N. Security Council dug in their heels Thursday on diametrically opposed positions over the restoration of international sanctions on Iran. – Associated Press

Bobby Ghosh writes: President Hassan Rouhani asserted that the agreement with the IAEA showed “Iran is ready as ever to work closely with the agency in the framework of safeguards.” […]The regime will do its best to spin the new deal with the IAEA as a case for cutting Iran some slack. But there’s no concealing the reality that the Islamic Republic buckles under pressure. – Bloomberg

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: Also, some IAEA visits have been timid and symbolic, with Iran collecting samples “on behalf” of inspectors, and the deal did not reveal how or when access would be given. But Israel unquestionably is more worried about whether this deal signals a reduction of pressure on Iran on the big-ticket issues than it is about any of the specific details involved. – Jerusalem Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: If the US wants to understand the mentality it is contending with, it should listen to Rouhani’s speech, which indicates Iran’s regime is not entirely deterred and believes it is on a historic mission. Its belief is bolstered by its own media coverage of support it is getting from other countries. – Jerusalem Post

Syria

The U.N. envoy for Syria says talks between government, opposition and civil society delegations will resume Thursday after a three-day pause caused by positive cases of coronavirus among four participants. – Associated Press

The Russian military on Thursday blamed U.S. troops for a collision of Russian and U.S. military vehicles in Syria’s northeast. – Associated Press

Anton Mardasov writes: Going forward, Moscow will try to pressure Assad to introduce at least some superficial changes to the political system against the current backdrop of steadily worsening economic problems. Moscow expects to sell this as evidence that the country is going through a much-needed transformation. – Middle East Institute 

Israel

Israeli aircraft and tanks struck Hamas facilities in Gaza on Friday and militants fired half a dozen rockets towards southern Israel, the military said, as mediators work for calm along the volatile frontier. – Reuters

In a burnt and blackened wheat field along the Gaza border, Israeli firefighters brave the dry summer heat to extinguish blazes caused by fire balloons launched from the Palestinian enclave. – Reuters

The Hamas terror group warned on Friday morning that it would exact a “heavy price” from anyone who threatened the Gaza Strip, after overnight violence saw a volley of rockets launched toward southern Israel and two rounds of airstrikes on the enclave. – Times of Israel

The High Court of Justice in a Thursday ruling ordered the demolition of roughly three dozen buildings in a central West Bank outpost that were built on private Palestinian land. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was “saddened” by the decision. – Times of Israel

Government policy has changed from annexation to normalization, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi told reporters in Berlin on Thursday. His remarks created an immediate political storm within the fragile coalition. – Jerusalem Post

In an IDF ceremony on Thursday inaugurating a new commander for the 300th Brigade, a territorial brigade that’s part of the IDF’s northern Galilee Division, Brig.-Gen Shlomi Binder, commander of the Galilee Division, referred to the tension in Israel’s northern border following the security incident that took place on Tuesday and saw IDF troops fired upon by Hezbollah operatives. – Jerusalem Post

Eric R. Mandel writes: Just as there is no free lunch for anything of value, the sale of F-35s to Israel’s neighbors and potential enemies is a serious concern, and it is up to the Israelis to convince whoever sits in the Oval Office that a real solution is needed to protect Israel’s qualitative edge, which is also an indispensable American national security interest.  – The Hill

Michal Cotler-Wunsh and Oded Revivi write: It is only when double standards are exposed and when leaders are held genuinely accountable that the culture of impunity can end, enabling real change. This is also the lesson that Israeli leaders must take to heart in this particular context, when it comes hopefully acting on – or perhaps sadly ignoring – the “Peace to Prosperity” vision. – Jerusalem Post

Zalman Shoval writes: A Democratic win is not assured, but even if Trump gets another four years in the White House, an important objective for Israel should be rehabilitating support for it on both sides of the American political divide. The American Jewish community, which plays a not insignificant role in the Democratic Party in more ways than one, must also be part of this supremely important task. – Jerusalem Post

Arabian Peninsula

Saudi Arabia is considering ending the use of the death penalty for drug-related offenses, a change that could spare the lives of dozens of prisoners in the kingdom every year, according to a Saudi official and human rights groups that monitor capital punishment in the country. – Washington Post

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met the Sultan of Oman on Thursday as part of a Middle East tour following a U.S.-brokered deal on normalising relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. – Reuters

The Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthi movement in Yemen said on Thursday it intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched towards the city of Najran. – Reuters

Analysts are looking forward to potential cooperation among the defense industries of Israel and the United Arab Emirates, following the Aug. 13 announcement that the two countries are establishing full diplomatic relations in a U.S.-brokered deal. – Defense News

Following the normalization agreement between the UAE and Israel, writers in the Emirati media praised Israel’s scientific and technological achievements and called on the Arabs to learn and benefit from its experience. – Middle East Media Research Institute

William D. Hartung writes: Taken together, the UAE’s pattern of reckless and illegal foreign adventures and internal repression should disqualify it from receiving U.S. weaponry at this time. Not only might the weapons be misused, but sales of advanced systems will also represent an endorsement of the regime’s conduct. – Washington Post

Korean Peninsula

U.S. authorities on Thursday moved to seize 280 cryptocurrency accounts they said were used by North Korean hackers who stole more than a quarter of a billion dollars from cryptocurrency companies around the world, including one in the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

Kim Jong Un’s younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, has vanished from public view in what could be another sign that she’s taken more control in the regime, an expert said. – New York Post

Editorial: Mr Kim, although keen to showcase his concern for “the people’s well-being” during a visit to flood-hit areas, has rejected offers of foreign help, ostensibly for fear that it might bring the virus into the country. Shipments of humanitarian goods have slowed to a trickle, owing both to sanctions and to the quarantine. The vast majority of foreign aid workers have been forced to leave in recent months, along with most diplomats. The few who remain are barred from leaving Pyongyang. As life in North Korea grows ever more miserable, the rest of the world is ever less likely to hear about it. – The Economist

Afghanistan

The Taliban offered condolences to the victims and instructed its fighters to assist. But the group also attacked outposts in the area even as bodies were still lost under rubble, a continuation of violence that has escalated in the northern provinces in recent months, including some areas now affected by the floods. – New York Times

Peace talks between warring Afghan sides will begin in early September said the country’s top peace negotiator on Thursday in Kabul, a crucial diplomatic process needed to end about two decades of war in Afghanistan. – Reuters

A lead Taliban negotiator on Thursday said no peace talks were planned with Afghan officials for early September, hours after a senior government official said talks were to begin next month. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department has offered up to $5 million in rewards for information that helps locate and free two Americans kidnapped in Afghanistan. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Russia

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia gave an ominous warning on Thursday to protesters in Belarus not to push too hard to topple their country’s embattled president, saying that Russia had formed a special reserve force of security officers to restore order in the event of chaos in its western neighbor. – New York Times

Alexei Navalny, 44, is Russia’s best-known opposition leader. He has been comatose since last week, when he fell ill after boarding a flight in Siberia. After a standoff with Russian doctors, he was evacuated to Berlin for medical treatment. – Washington Post

Russian authorities said Thursday they have found no indication so far that opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s coma, which his allies and German doctors treating him believe may have been brought about by poisoning, was caused by a criminal act. – Associated Press

A Russian submarine surfaced near Alaska on Thursday during a Russian war game exercise, U.S. military officials said. – Associated Press

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a group of Russians who were detained in Belarus prior to its Aug. 9 election and accused of being mercenaries had been lured to Belarus by a Ukrainan-U.S. intelligence operation. – Reuters

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Thursday it had detained a serviceman in Siberia for having allegedly passed state secrets to Ukraine. – Reuters

In a tit-for-tat move, Russia is expelling a diplomat from the Norwegian embassy in Moscow, Norway’s foreign ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

Editorial: The poisoning of Mr. Navalny must be thoroughly investigated, no matter where the truth leads. Since Russia is unlikely to do it honestly, an international probe is warranted. Mr. Navalny, who doctors say is not now in danger of dying, cannot become just another name on the roll call of Mr. Putin’s victims. Who put poison in his tea — and who ordered it put there — must be found and exposed. – Washington Post

Nadya Tolokonnikova writes: These things happen in pieces, bit by bit, small acts. And each one may even seem relatively benign at first, perhaps bad, but not fatal. You get angry, maybe you speak out, but you get on with your life. The promise of our democracy was chipped away in pieces, one by one: corrupt cronies appointed, presidential orders issued, actions taken, laws passed, votes rigged. It happens slowly, intermittently; sometimes we couldn’t see how steadily. Autocracy crept in, like the coward it is. – New York Times

Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Political instability in Belarus, Lebanon and Khabarovsk all present shades of the same challenge for Russian president Vladimir Putin: They disrupt the status quo he prefers in parts of the world that matter to his regime’s survival. He’s not going to sit back. – The Hill

Daniel N. Hoffman writes: The Kremlin’s poisoning of Navalny is an admonition as well for the U.S., which remains in Putin’s crosshairs as we near the 2020 presidential election. If Putin felt vulnerable enough to poison Navalny, then we should expect him to increase the intensity of his attacks on our democracy — even at the risk of greater conflict between our nations. – The Hill

Africa

Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Mali’s ousted president, was released from detention and driven to his home in the West African country’s capital early Thursday, nine days after a military coup brought an end to his seven years in power. – New York Times

Video of one gathering in the rural commune of Sangha shows leaders from the rival Dogon and Fulani communities, whose militias have slaughtered hundreds of civilians in tit-for-tat attacks this year, sitting down together and making peace. Also surprising were the mediators: fighters from al Qaeda’s Mali affiliate, who can be seen squatting in the shade with rifles and ammunition belts, many of their faces obscured by turbans and dark sunglasses. – Reuters

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has approved a plan to halt U.S. foreign assistance to Ethiopia as the Trump administration attempts to mediate a dispute with Egypt and Sudan over the East African country’s construction of a massive dam on the Nile River. – Foriegn Policy

Adem K. Abebe writes: There is no place for military putsches in 21st-century Africa. But the AU’s zero-tolerance policy toward army-led coups must be applied with equal fervor against democracy-stunting constitutional coups. Anything less will fail to restore the AU’s legitimacy among ordinary Africans.  – Foreign Policy

David Pilling writes: Paradoxically, the return of the coup is the flipside of more entrenched democratic norms. Across the continent, regular elections are now standard. But leaders have become adept at manipulating the democratic process and at tweaking the constitution to extend their rule. […]One coup tends to lead to another. Mali is on its second and there are already rumours of disgruntled army officers gunning for Mugabe’s brutal and ineffective successor, Emmerson Mnangagwa. And, once in power, soldiers may get a taste for it. – Financial Times

Cybersecurity

US retail giant Walmart said Thursday it had teamed with Microsoft to buy TikTok, the Chinese-owned short-form video app that has come under fire from the administration of President Donald Trump. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: Hong Kong is the latest frontier in a fight over Internet freedom that is occurring around the world. Just this week, Facebook challenged an order to partially shut down a group critical of the monarchy in Thailand, a nation whose computer crime law is frequently revised to tighten government control over the Internet. But Facebook first complied with the order, caught between its view that the request violated international human rights law and its commitment to obey local law. What happens if the courts rule against Facebook in Thailand, and what will companies do when officials in other places insist that they assist in quashing civilian expression? – Washington Post

Shira Ovide writes: It is also a reminder that in the absence of effective government policy in the United States to limit digital privacy intrusions, we have Apple and Google remaking how the digital world works without input or oversight on this important policy issue. I’m glad that these powerful companies are flexing their muscle for what I think is a worthy mission. It also makes me queasy. – New York Times

Js Tan writes: In the meantime, the public can begin to use more secure options such as ProtonMail or Signal and reduce our reliance on tech conglomerates, whether they are American or Chinese. Perhaps then, we—unlike Google, TikTok, Facebook, or Tencent—won’t end up trapped between Beijing and Washington in their ever deteriorating relationship. – Foreign Policy

Long War

Australia’s prime minister said Friday he was open to allowing an Australian white supremacist who slaughtered 51 worshippers at two New Zealand mosques to serve his life sentence in his homeland but the victims’ wishes would be paramount. – Associated Press

Fourteen alleged accomplices in the 2015 jihadist attacks on the Charlie Hebdo satirical weekly and a Jewish supermarket go on trial next Wednesday more than half-a-decade after days of bloodshed that still shock France. – Agence France-Presse

In his first-ever public statement at the time, the twentysomething Yaqoob called for unity within the Sunni extremist group and dismissed rumors that his father’s death was the result of an inside job. Since that first audio message in 2015, the ambitious Mullah Yaqoob has soared through the Taliban’s ranks. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Ilan Berman writes: In other words, though diminished by counter-terrorism measures and temporarily sidelined by the pandemic, the Islamic State is hardly defunct. Rather, the organization has proven itself to be both resilient and adaptive. As such, it remains a long-term problem for the United States and its regional partners. It is a danger that we — and our allies — ignore at our peril. – USA Today