Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

As this kibbutz buried another community member who was taken hostage on Oct. 7 and returned dead, concerns are rising in Israel that time is running out for a deal to reach a cease-fire in Gaza and bring the remaining hostages home. – Wall Street Journal

Israel and Hamas were sending senior-level delegations to Cairo this weekend as U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators prepared for a high-stakes summit they hope will break the deadlock in negotiations for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. – Washington Post

Officials involved in Gaza cease-fire talks disagree on many things, but they are starting to find common ground on at least one position: The United States, a key player in the negotiations, has been overselling how close the warring parties are to reaching an agreement. – Washington Post

Since the deadly Oct. 7 attacks in Israel that he planned and directed, Mr. Sinwar has been something of a ghost: never appearing in public, rarely releasing messages for his followers and giving up few clues about where he might be. – New York Times

With fears rising that a wider war could break out in the Middle East, the United States has steadily been moving Navy forces closer to the area, including two aircraft carrier groups and a guided-missile submarine. – New York Times

For months, the Biden administration waited to formally approve $20 billion in future American weapons sales to Israel, including F-15s and medium-range missiles. The official notification to Congress was finally announced last week — right before Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken traveled to Israel in a bid to nail down a cease-fire agreement with Hamas. – New York Times

Israel’s cabinet on Sunday approved an expansion of 3.4 billion shekels ($923 million) in the 2024 state budget to help fund evacuees until the end of the year, the Finance Ministry said. – Reuters

Key Tel Aviv share indices closed about 2% higher on Sunday, with the blue-chip index touching a record high, after an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah curbed a potential rocket barrage by the group against key targets in Israel. – Reuters

At least 12 Palestinians, including two children and a woman, were killed early on Saturday morning by Israeli attacks east of Gaza’s Khan Younis and in the Al-Nuseirat camp area, the official Palestinian news agency Wafa said. – Reuters

The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court stressed the court had jurisdiction to investigate Israeli nationals and asked judges to urgently decide on arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defence minister Yoav Gallant. – Reuters

Nearly 11 months into the war with Hamas, Israel’s economy is struggling as the country’s leaders grind ahead with an offensive in Gaza that shows no signs of ending and threatens to escalate into a wider conflict. – Associated Press

Polio vaccines for more than 1 million people have been delivered to Gaza, Israel’s military said Sunday, after the first confirmed case of the disease in the territory in a quarter-century. – Associated Press

Successive Israeli evacuation orders in Gaza have displaced 90% of its 2.1 million residents since the Israel-Hamas war began in October, the top U.N. humanitarian official for the Palestinian territory says. – Associated Press

Some residents of Israel’s north fumed on Sunday after Israel launched an extensive preemptive attack against Hezbollah’s planned assault on the center of Israel, following 10 months of near-daily rocket attacks on the north with little sign of resolution. – Times of Israel

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari faced criticism on Sunday from an anonymous senior official within the government who accused him of acting contrary to the political echelon’s directives, after he said that Israel was committed to the “central war goal” of recovering the hostages from Gaza. – Times of Israel

Editorial: This attack could also have a positive impact on the hostage negotiations taking place in Cairo with Hamas because if Hamas’s chief Yahya Sinwar sees that his organization’s salvation is not going to come from the North, and that Israel can act with full force in Lebanon even as it is still dismantling Hamas’s capabilities in Gaza, then the terrorist organization might become more pliable. But “might” is the operative word. No one can predict Sinwar’s thinking. Nevertheless, his negotiating position is definitely weaker if it becomes clear that Israel is willing to fully take on Hezbollah in the North, even while it continues to degrade Hamas’ capabilities in the South. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: Hezbollah’s attack comes on a key weekend for Gaza negotiations, which continue as Hamas fails to get its way. Hezbollah tried to lend Hamas a hand, Mr. Nasrallah said. Will President Biden, fearing escalation, now add to the pressure on Israel to make dangerous cease-fire concessions? Better to let Hamas and Hezbollah contemplate their military failures. They should be making the concessions. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: Mediators from Qatar and Egypt spent more than seven hours going over details of the agreement with Hamas representatives in Cairo, paragraph by paragraph. That process will continue Monday. In addition to confirming names of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners to be released after the cease-fire, negotiators have prepared an elaborate protocol for the exchange. Release of each hostage who is a woman soldier brings freedom for X number of Palestinians, each elderly male hostage brings Y, each infirm hostage yields a release of Z detainees. – Washington Post

Stephen L. Carter writes: So which term is right? On the one hand, the United Nations and the majority of countries seem to think there exists a country called the State of Palestine, which is run, in theory, by the Palestinian Authority. On the other, lots and lots of people, and, certainly, the governments of Israel and the US, beg to differ. I recognize that the divide over what to call the location in question might be intractable. In the end, however, I doubt that official pronouncements on the answer are going to matter most. – Bloomberg

Russia & Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky marked his country’s Independence Day on Saturday with a video shot in the region where his armed forces launched a brazen offensive designed to send a message to Russia—and the West. – Wall Street Journal

The first foreign invasion of Russian territory since World War II has embarrassed Putin and put his military—already stretched thin by a manpower shortage—in a bind. Putin, who has long ruled by projecting an image of strength, has turned to a well-worn playbook to calm an agitated population: acting as though nothing’s wrong. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. Treasury Department imposed fresh sanctions targeting hundreds of entities Friday, saying it wants to hobble Russia’s supply chains and crack down on channels that the Kremlin is using to evade the existing measures. – Wall Street Journal

A member of the Reuters news agency was killed and two of its journalists were injured when a missile struck a hotel in eastern Ukraine where they were staying, Reuters said in a statement Sunday. – Washington Post

After being released from a Russian penal colony this month in a high-profile prisoner swap, opposition figure Ilya Yashin stunned the Western public when he said he would have preferred to stay in Russia, even if it was behind bars. – Washington Post

Kyiv’s lightning incursion into Kursk in western Russia this month slashed through the reddest line of all — a direct ground assault on Russia — yet Putin’s response has so far been strikingly passive and muted, in sharp contrast to his rhetoric earlier in the war. – Washington Post

The drone dog is among a handful of emerging technologies in anti-mine warfare — a field that, until now, experts say had not changed much in the past 50 years. But just as drones, which are generally defined as uncrewed machines, not exclusively aircraft, that are piloted remotely, have proved in Ukraine to be an important offensive weapon in modern fighting. – New York Times

Russia’s Saratov regional airport lifted flight curbs on Monday imposed after homes were damaged as a result of Ukraine’s drone attack that wounded a woman, Russian officials and news agencies said. – Reuters

The sound of explosions rang out in central Kyiv on Monday morning during rush hour as Ukraine’s military warned of a massive Russian missile and drone attack following waves of drone attacks in the early hours. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said negotiations were ongoing with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Switzerland regarding the second summit on peace in a conversation with Indian journalists shared on his social media on Sunday. – Reuters

Russia and Ukraine exchanged 115 prisoners of war from each side on Saturday after the United Arab Emirates acted as an intermediary. – Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a law banning Moscow-linked religious organisations, the parliament website said on Saturday. – Reuters

Jeremy Hurewitz writes: Putin’s anger at his country’s impotence could lead to an increase in attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, though Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that part of the reason for the invasion was to create a buffer zone and diminish Russia’s ability to attack across the border. Whatever the outcome, the Ukrainian offensive is a daring gambit, one that history shows us can be very effective when it comes to taking the fight to your enemy and upending their strategy and war gains.  – The Hill

Elad Israeli writes: While these talking points are eerily similar to those made on the Ukrainian front, this similarity is seldom acknowledged. A renewed common-ground approach by Republicans in Congress and the administration on Ukraine, backed by positive developments on the battlefield, could incentivize both sides to come closer on the Middle East as well. This will prove especially true after Election Day when the Biden administration, no longer hamstrung by the Harris campaign, will be freed of all political calculations. – The Hill

Afghanistan

Three years after the suicide bomber attack at Afghanistan’s Abbey Gate that killed 13 US service personnel and about 170 Afghan civilians, the network behind the perpetrator is “pretty degraded” but not eliminated, the Pentagon’s civilian commando chief said. – Bloomberg

The Taliban’s new vice and virtue laws that include a ban on women’s voices and bare faces in public provide a “distressing vision” for Afghanistan’s future, a top U.N. official warned Sunday. – Associated Press

Imran Khalid writes: The Taliban might be more responsive to a credible offer of recognition from a U.S.-led coalition, but such an offer is now virtually impossible. If U.S. foreign policy’s primary objective were to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan, it would require cooperation with key regional players — China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India and the UN — to establish a common platform for engagement. – The Hill

Iraq

A Turkish drone strike on Friday killed three people in northern Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan’s counter-terrorism service said. – Reuters

Millions of Shiite Muslims packed the streets of the Iraqi city of Karbala Saturday on their annual pilgrim to mark the death of Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Hussein, who became a symbol of resistance during the tumultuous first century of Islam’s history. – Associated Press

One of the pro-Iran militias in Iraq said it had launched a drone attack on Haifa on early Sunday morning, according to the group’s Telegram and KAN news. – Jerusalem Post

Egypt

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned America’s top general during a meeting on Sunday of the dangers of a major conflict in Lebanon. – Reuters

President Joe Biden spoke by phone to the leaders of Qatar and Egypt on Friday, pushing for an elusive Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal as negotiators met in Cairo to try to overcome remaining obstacles. – Reuters

Egypt denies that any tunnels run under its border with the Gaza Strip through which weapons or people could be smuggled, a source involved in Israel’s talks with Cairo on a hostage deal said. – Haaretz

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisian President Kais Saied announced on Sunday a broad cabinet reshuffle of 19 ministers that included those for defence, foreign affairs and the economy, ahead of a presidential election on Oct. 6. – Reuters

The top U.S. general began an unannounced visit to the Middle East on Saturday to discuss ways to avoid any new escalation in tensions that could spiral into a broader conflict, as the region braces for a threatened Iranian attack against Israel. – Reuters

The United Nations Libya mission said late on Thursday it was concerned about reports of forces mobilising in Tripoli and threats of force to resolve a crisis over control of the central bank. – Reuters

Kuwait’s ruler signed a decree to reshuffle the Gulf nation’s cabinet on Sunday, a move that included ousting the finance chief and changing three other portfolios. – Bloomberg

Editorial: MBS says he wants a dynamic, innovative Saudi Arabia. It’s hard to see how that can happen as long as dynamic, innovative Saudis — people such as Abdulaziz al-Muzaini — face arbitrary persecution. By repressing them, the crown prince has shown that unchallenged power, and not national progress, is his true priority. – Washington Post

Neville Teller writes: In practical terms, therefore: Is the price that Saudi Arabia is asking for a normalization deal with Israel unrealistic? Or will MBS’s compromise formula be enough to kick the issue into the long grass and finalize the normalization deal? Or will current US policy and the weight of public opinion in favor of the two-state solution finally prevail? Time will tell. – Jerusalem Post

Samuel Byers writes: The United States should be a referee of conflicts around the world but ought not to act decisively to secure its interests. Thus, when Houthi terrorists threaten to blockade a critical waterway, the U.S. Navy is dispatched to the scene—not to solve the problem, but to just keep an eye on things and make sure nothing gets out of hand. That is “how you behave if you’re the most powerful nation in the world.” The result, however, is the failure to secure America’s interests in the region while assuming risk and opportunity costs wildly out of proportion to the value gained. Perhaps the next president should consider the “disproportional response” instead. – National Interest

Zach Huff writes: Renewing the commitment to modernize the Peshmerga should extend beyond 2026. Gen. Hazhar says it should last “until at least 2030.” VP Sheikh Jaafar stresses that the United States should stay “at least ten years longer,” echoing what KRG President Nechirvan Barzani and PUK leader Bavel Talabani requested at the Baghdad summit. America’s Iran-linked and ISIS adversaries have mastered the art of patience. The United States must base its regional strategy on performance and security, not an arbitrary calendar. – National Interest

China

For months, the Philippines has pushed back against Beijing in the South China Sea. China has responded with increasing hostility, directing its ire against Philippine vessels and crew. – Wall Street Journal

Zhang is part of a broader brain drain in China that has continued largely unabated since the Covid-19 pandemic, as intellectuals and entrepreneurs trickle out of the country to escape a radical tightening of political controls under leader Xi Jinping. – Wall Street Journal

On the boulevard in front of the presidential palace in Taipei this weekend, Taiwan’s worst nightmare was unfolding in front of film crews. A crowd of actors and extras portrayed one kind of chaos that might come with a Chinese invasion: a protest descending into violence and bloodshed. – New York Times

Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser at the White House, will travel to China next week to meet with Wang Yi, the country’s foreign minister, in their latest high-level meeting aimed at defusing tensions. – New York Times

China’s military said on Monday it had organised army units and joint air-ground police patrols near its border with Myanmar to maintain security and stability as fighting between Myanmar’s ruling junta and rebel forces escalates. – Reuters

China said on Sunday it had taken “control measures” against a Philippine vessel in the South China Sea, where the two countries have had escalating confrontations over disputed waters. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday the two countries must be able to talk frankly about their disagreements and also pursue closer economic ties and work together on global issues. – Reuters

Beijing urged the US to “stop its wrong practices” after Chinese companies were included on a sanctions list that’s designed to target supply chains feeding Russia and hobble its wartime economy. – Bloomberg

China’s military is carrying out armed patrols near the Myanmar border this week, where the government is concerned about potential fallout from fierce fighting in a civil war on the other side. – Associated Press

Minxin Pei writes:  During the golden era of Chinese ties with Southeast Asia (from the late 1990s to around 2009), a softer Chinese approach charmed the region. In handling Vietnam, with which China has a complicated relationship, a more pragmatic policy has kept Hanoi from embracing the US too closely. Now that the Philippines appear to be firmly in the US camp, Chinese leaders may feel they have no alternative but to continue their pressure campaign. That will impose costs on Manila — but on Beijing, too. – Bloomberg

Andreas Kluth writes: Biden broached these concerns privately during his meeting with Xi in California last fall. But nothing has really come of it. So it’s time for him, Harris, Trump and others to exhort Xi and the world loudly and publicly. No Chinese leader can rationally desire a nuclear arms race against the world’s strongest economy. And everybody can agree that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” – Bloomberg

Asia

Deep in the outback, a flurry of construction by Australia and the United States is transforming this once quiet military installation into a potential launchpad in case of conflict with China. Runways are being expanded and strengthened to accommodate the allies’ biggest airplanes, including American B-52 bombers. – Washington Post

A deputy Taiwan foreign minister will attend this week’s meeting of Pacific Islands leaders in Tonga, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said on Sunday, as China and the United States jostle for influence in the region. – Reuters

Indonesia’s election body secured parliament’s nod on Sunday to issue new rules in line with demands from protesters, who have been furious over an attempt by allies of outgoing President Joko Widodo to change eligibility requirements in their favour. – Reuters

Taiwan’s Cabinet, the Executive Yuan, this week ratified a record defense budget of NT$647 billion, or US$20.2 billion, meant to help defend Taiwan against the prospect of a Chinese invasion. – Defense News

Africa

American-led talks to halt Sudan’s war, convened at an exclusive Swiss ski resort, ended after 10 days on Friday with agreements to deliver food and medicine to millions of starving Sudanese in the country’s most famine-stricken areas. – New York Times

At least 21 people, including 11 children, were killed by drone strikes on Sunday on the town of Tinzaouaten in north Mali, near where the army suffered a heavy blow last month, Tuareg rebels said. – Reuters

Uganda has confirmed two more mpox virus infections, bringing the number of cases in the east African country to four, according to the health ministry. – Reuters

Renewed fighting between Democratic Republic of Congo’s army and M23 rebels broke out on Sunday around a densely populated town in eastern North Kivu province, where the rebels are waging an insurgency, the army and M23 said. – Reuters

Nigerian police authorities have secured the release of 20 students who were kidnapped on their way to a convention in the north-central state of Benue last week, they said on Saturday, in a post on X. – Reuters

Tuareg rebels in northern Mali say they have yet to receive any direct communication from Moscow over the fate of fighters from the Russian mercenary Wagner Group whom they took prisoner last month in a battle near the Algerian border. – Reuters

At least 60 people died after a dam collapsed amid torrential rains in eastern Sudan, local media reported, the latest tragedy in the North African nation that’s being pushed into famine by a more than yearlong civil war. – Bloomberg

Food aid is on the way to an area of Sudan facing famine amid the northeast African country’s grinding conflict, a group of countries and the United Nations said in a joint statement Friday. – Associated Press

Afyare A. Elmi and Yusuf Hassan write:  Washington, which has invested greatly in the region, must also exert pressure on the leaders of East African countries to promote dialogue, as well as try to reconcile Somalia and Somaliland. It won’t be easy. But the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are too important to become another war zone, and East Africa is too fragile for reckless adventures. The world must hold this trouble by the horns. Because once it takes off, there will be no tail to restrain it by. – New York Times

North America

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador lashed out Friday at the U.S. ambassador after he warned that Mexico’s democracy faced a “major risk” from a plan to dismantle the federal judicial system and allow voters to pick judges. – Washington Post

As countries around the world feverishly turn to clean energy sources, Mexico has placed a colossal bet on fossil fuels, with the costs of that strategy now coming painfully into view. Mexico’s oil production tumbled to a 45-year low this year, one of the steepest output declines anywhere in the world this century. – New York Times

 The U.S. military said on Friday that it would deliver 24 additional armored vehicles to Kenyan personnel deployed in Haiti who are heading a long-delayed security operation in the conflict-ravaged Caribbean nation. – Reuters

Mexico’s electoral authority on Friday confirmed that ruling party Morena and its allies will hold a two-thirds supermajority in the lower house but fall just short of a supermajority in the Senate when the new legislative term begins in September. – Reuters

Editorial: Ms. Sheinbaum’s reluctance to disagree with Mr. López Obrador is perhaps understandable, given his control over the political apparatus on which her forthcoming presidency will depend. This is shortsighted, though. If her patron’s attempt to bring the judiciary to heel goes through, it will ensure that her first months, if not years, in office will be overshadowed by a fight over judicial independence. And it will threaten her avowed economic strategy, which hinges on integration with the North American economy. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity

Meta security teams blocked “a small cluster” of WhatsApp accounts associated with APT42, an Iranian government-backed group accused by  U.S. officials of hacking into the Trump campaign’s email accounts, the company said Friday. – Cyberscoop

Argentinian police arrested a Russian national this week suspected of accepting millions of dollars in stolen cryptocurrency from child sexual abusers, financiers of terrorism and North Korean hackers. – The Record

Chinese authorities said on Friday that they have extradited from Thailand a suspected leader of a crypto pyramid scheme that generated nearly $14 billion in illegal profits. – The Record

Oil field giant Halliburton provided new details to regulators on Friday about a recent cyberattack that necessitated the shut-down of certain systems. – The Record

Long War

Police said they had detained a suspect in a stabbing attack that killed three and wounded eight in Germany on Friday. Authorities are treating the attack, claimed by Islamic State, as a terror act. – Wall Street Journal

Security officials shot dead four Islamist militants who had attacked their guards in a high-security prison in southern Russia before taking a dozen people hostage, the latest violent incident to challenge the Kremlin. – Wall Street Journal

Nigerian police said two of its officers were killed and three left unconscious after an attack involving knives and explosives by the Islamic Movement of Nigeria in capital Abuja on Sunday. – Reuters

“The Islamic State delivered a strong blow to Russia with a bloody attack, the fiercest that hit it in years,” the man said in Arabic, according to the SITE Intelligence Group, an organization that tracks and analyzes such online content. But the man in the video, which the Thomson Reuters Foundation was not able to view independently, was not real – he was created using artificial intelligence, according to SITE and other online researchers. – Jerusalem Post