Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russia is on the attack in northeastern Ukraine as it seeks to take back territory that Kyiv recaptured last fall and to divert Ukrainian forces from their counteroffensive in the south and east. – Wall Street Journal

Belarus, a staunch ally of Russia, has transported thousands of Ukrainian children—some of them orphans—to the country, where they were exposed to pro-Kremlin propaganda, an effort that underscores the former Soviet nation’s support for Moscow’s war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Denmark for its support in an address to the country’s Parliament on Monday, a day after it became one of the first nations to pledge F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. – New York Times

Even though Russia’s regional and municipal votes next month are widely seen as sham elections, President Putin is insisting on also conducting them beyond Russia proper in four Ukrainian territories he has annexed illegally. – New York Sun

Vladimir Putin is reportedly under increasing pressure to take a more aggressive approach to his war against Ukraine and introduce a full-scale mobilization, but the Russian president is stalling over concerns doing so would break from the propaganda narrative he’s been pushing for more than 18 months, experts tell Newsweek. – Newsweek

Anthony Grant writes: Although the ceasefire that Senator Paul has called for looks unlikely for now, in the near future President Biden will likely be handing over the keys to a new president — ideally, without falling down as he does so. The urgency for finding a way to break the stalemate that does not simply focus on delivering more weapons is likely to grow as Americans decide both what is and what is not at stake. – New York Sun

Alexander J. Motyl writes: Naturally, analysts must analyze and commentators must comment. But they should never forget that what strikes them as a sporting event, in which rival theories are fighting it out over which will appear sillier, is actually hell on Earth. – The Hill

Jade McGlynn writes: The drone attacks probably won’t turn Russians against the war. But they might give succour to Ukraine’s most sacred and strategic resource, one that is running out in inverse proportion to Western arms rationing: the Ukrainian people. – CNN

Andrei Kolesnikov writes: Of course, change could come from within the system itself: at least historically, all political transformation in Russia has come from the top. It is possible that a new group of reformers could emerge from among the moderate members of the existing elite—liberals who are still serving in government or the civil service. This new group would have to decide just how radically they want to change the country. If they embarked on a new course of modernization and opening to the West, it could provoke conflicts between former Putinist circles and the counter-elite returning from abroad or being released from prisons. – Foreign Affairs

Alex Burilkov and Wesley Satterwhite write: Therefore, it is imperative that the idea of a peace settlement amenable to all parties in the conflict—including Russia—takes hold and is seriously pursued in Washington. Influential American figures are already engaged in Track 1.5 diplomacy with their counterparts in Russia. These efforts should be encouraged, expanded, and form the basis for sustained engagement in peace negotiations. Only then will the United States be able to focus entirely on containing China, which is of paramount importance to American security and prosperity. – National Interest

Emily Couch and Kimberly St. Julian-Varon write: While some European countries have made minor steps towards reckoning with their colonizing past, widespread ignorance and denial regarding this history persist. The emphasis of Ukrainians on the anti-colonial nature of their fight at a time when support on the continent is high means that Ukrainians are uniquely positioned to reshape what it means to be European. – Foreign Policy

Afghanistan

Since the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in 2021, hundreds of members of the U.S.-backed former government have been detained, tortured or killed under the new government, despite Taliban leaders’ declaration of amnesty for actions during the long civil war, the United Nations reported on Tuesday. – New York Times

A magnetic mine blast killed two people in Kabul near Afghanistan’s Justice Ministry, the city’s police said on Monday. – Reuters

A public inquiry into allegations of war crimes by British armed forces in Afghanistan will be held partly in secret, the chair has decided. – Sky News

Iraq

Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani arrived in the Turkish capital Ankara to discuss several issues including the resumption of oil exports through the Ceyhan oil terminal, a source in the minister’s office told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

A French soldier was killed in an anti-terrorism training exercise in Iraq on Sunday, the French government said, the second member of the French armed forces to die in Iraq in three days. – Reuters

Fawzi al-Zubaidi writes: These steps constitute a road map to restore Iraq as a normal state in the eyes of the international community. If Sudani succeeds in implementing these steps by handling them as a single package of “indivisible” measures and policies, Iraq could make a quantum leap in its modern history, accelerating the rebuilding and development of the entire country. However, Iraq’s failure to implement these obligations and steps will open the door to chaos, conflict, and further division. – Washington Institute

Hamdi Malik and Michael Knights write: Signs of real tension between HaN (including its offshoots AK and the Iraqi Basij) and other muqawama and Coordination Framework actors require ongoing, detailed monitoring. New efforts by the Iraqi Basij to hold protests or other events in the two main shrine cities would indicate continued defiance; the same message might be conveyed if AK aggressively regrows its Telegram channel (probably via paid bots). It will also be interesting to see whether AK and the Iraqi Basij try to damage AAH electoral campaigns in the leadup to this December’s provincial elections. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

Saudi security forces have killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants and asylum seekers attempting to cross the country’s border with Yemen, Human Rights Watch said, shooting people at close range and firing explosive weapons at groups in the mountains in what could amount to crimes against humanity. – Washington Post

China’s crude oil imports from top exporter Saudi Arabia are expected to remain depressed through the third quarter, analysts said, after its customs office reported inbound shipments from the kingdom fell to their lowest in 13 months in July. – Reuters

Addiction to captagon, an amphetamine-type pill nicknamed the “poor man’s cocaine,” has been a serious problem in Gulf Arab states — especially among Saudi Arabia’s youth, with one Saudi commentator speaking recently of a “devastating amount of poison” being brought to the kingdom. – Bloomberg

Ethan Bronner writes: A deal is being negotiated that, if completed, would result in Saudi Arabia, for the first time, establishing warm relations with Israel. The main thing the Saudis would get in exchange — security guarantees — wouldn’t come from Israel but from its closest ally — the US. Israel, a high-tech power, would play a major role in ambitious Saudi plans to move its economy beyond oil. It would also be expected to make concessions to the Palestinian self-ruling authority in the West Bank. The US would regain some of its influence over Saudi Arabia, stemming efforts by China to expand its sway in the Middle East. The deal offers significant rewards to all four governments, not least of them additional ways of dealing with Iranian military activity in the region. But the prospect of the pact stirs populist forces among all of their constituencies, posing risks to those in power. – Bloomberg

China

China is playing an increasingly important role in propping up Russia’s economy and helping boost its war effort, with recent trade data showing Beijing providing a range of goods, including some with potential military applications such as microchips and trench-digging excavators. – Wall Street Journal

China imposed roughly $1.5 million in financial penalties on the Beijing arm of Mintz Group for allegedly conducting unapproved statistical work, months after local authorities detained the New York-based due diligence firm’s staff members. – Wall Street Journal

In Washington, the White House and federal lawmakers are pursuing ways to constrain Chinese-owned businesses like TikTok amid a bipartisan push to limit China’s reach. Now state legislators have embraced a novel, locally focused tactic aimed at China’s domestic investments: restrictions on Chinese land ownership. – Washington Post

Bilateral relations and economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States are facing difficulties, Chinese Premier Li Qiang told the chair of the U.S.-China Business Council heading a USCBC delegation on a visit to Beijing. – Reuters

A jailed university student who pleaded guilty to inciting secession in Hong Kong lost his bid to reduce his five-year sentence in a court ruling Tuesday that is expected to set the bar for other cases brought under the national security law Beijing imposed on Hong Kong. – Associated Press

The BRICS bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will use an annual leaders’ summit in Johannesburg this week to begin the process of enlisting more members to bolster its global heft, a push driven mainly by Chinese President Xi Jinping but also backed by Russia and South Africa. There will also be talks on how to accelerate a shift away from the dollar, in part by increasing the use of local currencies in trade between members, which is surging, according to a draft agenda seen by Bloomberg. – Bloomberg

UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is set to visit China in the last week of August for talks focused on Russia and Ukraine, people familiar with his plans said. – Bloomberg

The vow by China’s leaders last month to address the “new difficulties and challenges” besetting the world’s second-largest economy appeared to open the way for bolder government measures to stimulate activity. – Financial Times

China has long been the engine of global growth. But in recent weeks, its economic slowdown has alarmed international leaders and investors who are no longer counting on it to be a bulwark against weakness elsewhere. In fact, for the first time in decades, the world’s second economy is itself the problem. – CNN

Editorial: Information brokers are especially at risk if they’re probing a politically sensitive topic. In May Reuters reported that Randal Phillips, then Mintz’s Asia chief, had “co-authored an article carried on the firm’s website last year on ‘sanctions due diligence’” under a U.S. law that prohibits the import of products made with forced labor in Xinjiang Province. […]The lesson: Invest in China at your own political and economic risk. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Biden shouldn’t be cowed. Renewing the umbrella agreement is the right thing to do. As the US limits China’s access to advanced technology and arms Taiwan, finding opportunities to cooperate will only get harder. It should think twice before throwing an obvious one away. – Bloomberg

Mike Gallagher writes: Republicans on the debate stage should state an alternative grounded in the lessons of recent history as well as a realistic assessment of how Marxist-Leninist regimes respond to appeasement. The Republican presidential nominee should understand the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses to America and be able to articulate it. The nominee must tout the superiority of the American system and why, after we get our act together, freedom will be the victor. – Wall Street Journal

Henry M. Paulson Jr. writes: For the sake of global growth, geopolitical security and our continued prosperity, we should hope China pivots toward policies that encourage competition and openness. And, here at home, we should remember that our national security depends upon our economic strength and stay focused on what has made our country strong. – Washington Post

Paul Krugman writes: None of this means that we should welcome the possibility of a Chinese slump or gloat over another nation’s troubles. Even on purely selfish grounds, we should worry about what the Chinese regime might do to distract its citizens from domestic problems. But in economic terms, we seem to be looking at a potential crisis within China, not a 2008-style global event. – New York Times

Seung-Whan Choi writes: Hopefully, Biden understands that he must encourage Kishida to help Yoon navigate evolving foreign policy challenges. If not, Yoon, who acts like he has outsourced his national defense to the U.S., will remain a liability for Biden in coming years. – The Hill

James Kynge writes: “The vague language of most of the initiatives made it easy for countries to pay lip service to them. China could then point to this rhetorical support as evidence that a large number of countries backed its worldview,” says Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, a think-tank in Washington. “However, these countries would only be willing to accommodate China’s demands up to a certain point. When push came to shove, they would follow their own interests,” she adds. – Financial Times

Gideon Rachman writes: Despite their problems, Japan and South Korea have remained stable and prosperous countries. China may find that its own transition to an ageing and slower growing society is considerably more difficult and turbulent. – Financial Times

Howard W. French writes: Chinese and American leaders also have to start speaking with each other and meeting much more often face to face. There is really no substitute for this, for as much as what were once called people-to-people exchanges can reinforce a shared sense of humanity, seeing political leaders shake hands and smile and meet across the table to discuss thorny issues separating the two sides can also remind both countries’ public and political classes that there is nothing so hard that it can’t be talked about. – Foreign Policy

Asia

The Japanese government said it planned to begin the discharge of slightly radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant on Thursday, rejecting calls for a delay from some people in neighboring countries. – Wall Sreet Journal

When four Chinese detectives breezed into police headquarters here in the middle of 2017, it quickly became apparent they weren’t in Fiji’s capital merely to help with an inquiry. Instead, the officers planned to carry out the investigation — into Chinese nationals suspected of running internet scams from the South Pacific island — pretty much as if they were back in China. – Washington Post

Thailand’s former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has returned to the country after 17 years in self-exile, arriving in the capital, Bangkok, hours before the party he helped establish, Pheu Thai, is set to form a coalition government with members of the conservative military establishment who have led the charge to keep him and his family from power over the last two decades. – Washington Post

Hong Kong’s leader said on Tuesday he strongly opposes Japan’s release into the sea of treated radioactive water from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant and the city would “immediately activate” import controls on Japanese seafood. – Reuters

Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles will travel to the Philippines to observe joint training drills focussed on regional security, his office said on Monday, amid tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. – Reuters

Taiwan Vice President William Lai managed to walk a fine line on his sensitive trip to the United States if China’s drills in response are anything to go by, but Beijing’s ire may not be allayed for long by a person it deeply dislikes. – Reuters

Four Pacific Islands leaders are due to arrive in Vanuatu on Tuesday to consider declaring a “neutral” position amid rising contest between the United States and China, against the backdrop of a political crisis in the host nation. – Reuters

Indonesia’s defence ministry and U.S. planemaker Boeing (BA.N) have signed an agreement on the sale of 24 F-15EX fighter jets to help modernise the Southeast Asian country’s ageing fleet, the ministry and the company said. – Reuters

Cambodia’s parliament voted on Tuesday to approve a new government led by the son of outgoing leader Hun Sen following an election last month widely criticized as neither free nor fair. – Bloomberg

Taiwan plans to increase its military spending next year by the smallest percentage since 2018, even as Beijing ramps up its military pressure on the self-ruled island it considers its territory. – Bloomberg

China called President Joe Biden’s trilateral summit with the leaders of South Korea and Japan a “deliberate attempt to sow discord” between the world’s second-largest economy and two of its Asian neighbors. – Bloomberg

The Philippines and Australia conducted an air assault exercise near South China Sea, marking the “first major” drills lined up for this year between the two armed forces amid rising tensions between Manila and Beijing. – Bloomberg

Call it “fruit diplomacy.” That’s how the Republic of China on Taiwan describes Beijing suspending the import of mangoes from the island democracy in a fit of rage over “stopovers” in America by Taiwan’s vice president. – New York Sun

Azby Brown writes: But it’s not too late to improve on public trust. Japan has invited the I.A.E.A. to help monitor the release, and this is welcome. But many Japanese, accustomed to obfuscation and a lack of transparency on Fukushima, simply no longer trust official assurances. Only a truly independent, international and participatory monitoring regime — with the close involvement of those most likely to be affected — will be sufficient to make sure that the release of the water is being done safely and responsibly. With that, a bad precedent could be transformed into a globally admired one. – New York Times

Karishma Vaswani writes: At the time, Locsin infamously posted: “China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see…O….Get the f*** out.” He later deleted that tweet, but this is not the kind of conversation you expect between friends. With China’s ATM slowly running out of cash, other countries — while they may not be as colorful or as loud — may well take a leaf out of Manila’s playbook. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: A common lamentation among democrats in the region is why the United States is effectively absent. Washington makes excuses, and remains absent when it counts. India’s presence now provides a new option for the region, one that Washington should encourage. A choice between Russia, Turkey, and Iran is akin to choosing between a heart attack, stroke, or cancer. India provides an antidote to dictatorship, rentierism, and extremism. The Caucasus are in flux. India could be the ally its democrats need. – American Enterprise Institute

Sushant Singh writes: Modi, Jaishankar, and their advisors cannot avoid the reality that India is losing ground to China. But China has often erred in seeing India through the prism of its ties with global superpowers; it may be repeating this mistake by reacting with aggression in part in response to India’s deepening relationship with the United States—seeing India as part of the U.S. design to contain Beijing. New Delhi’s partnership with Washington can help to deal with an assertive Beijing to an extent. Still, India must develop its own strengths on its own terms—both as a vibrant, liberal democracy and as a military and economic power. Indians need to do the heavy lifting themselves; nothing else will serve the country’s purpose. – Foreign Policy

Africa

West Africa’s main regional bloc, ECOWAS, has rejected a proposal by Niger’s military junta to hold elections within three years, extending a political impasse that could trigger a military intervention if no agreement is reached following a July coup. – Reuters

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on Monday swore in 45 ministers nearly three months after his election, promising that his government will accelerate its development agenda. – Associated Press

Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on Monday published his first recruitment video for the Wagner Group since organizing a short-lived mutiny against defense officials in Russia, according to information on Russian social media channels. – Associated Press

Mnangagwa is now seeking reelection for a second term as president in a vote this week that could see the ruling ZANU-PF party extend its 43-year hold on power in the southern African nation struggling under international sanctions. Zimbabwe has been governed by ZANU-PF ever since it won independence from white minority rule in 1980. – Associated Press

Aidan Springs writes: South Africa has, since the end of Apartheid, been one of the more receptive nations to non-western investment, and yet, the country is objectively much worse off now than it was when it joined BRICS back in 2010. Thus, one question remains; just how beneficial have Xi and Putin been for Africa? It seems, to me at least, not very beneficial at all. – Washington Examiner

North America

Mexico won’t make any further changes to a decree on genetically modified (GM) corn ahead of a dispute settlement panel requested by the United States through the USMCA trade pact, Mexican economy minister, Raquel Buenrostro, told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

A Kenyan delegation met with leaders of Haiti’s national police on Monday, a day after arriving in the country as it assesses leading a possible United Nations-backed multinational security force to help police fight escalating gang warfare. – Reuters

The Canadian government is learning about the law of unintended consequences after Meta removed news from its citizens’ timelines on both Facebook and Instagram in a spat over revenue-sharing with publishers there. – New York Sun

Cybersecurity

Sanctions imposed last year by the U.S. Treasury Department against decentralized cryptocurrency platform Tornado Cash are here to stay, according to a recent ruling by a federal judge. – Wall Street Journal

Thailand’s digital minister plans to ask a court to shut down Meta Platforms’ Facebook (META.O) in Southeast Asia’s second largest economy unless it takes action over scams that have affected more than 200,000 people, he said on Monday. – Reuters

Google, Facebook, TikTok and other Big Tech companies operating in Europe are facing one of the most far-reaching efforts to clean up what people encounter online. – Associated Press

Computer-generated children’s voices so realistic they fool their own parents. Masks created with photos from social media that can penetrate a system protected by face ID. They sound like the stuff of science fiction, but these techniques are already available to criminals preying on everyday consumers. – Bloomberg

Artificial Intelligence is more likely to augment jobs than to destroy them, a UN study indicated on Monday, at a time of growing anxiety over the potential impact of the technology. – Agence France-Presse

Ukrainian hackers claim to have broken into the email account of a senior Russian politician and exposed documents that allegedly prove his involvement in money laundering and sanction evasion schemes. – The Record

Somalia announced on Sunday a ban against social media platforms TikTok and Telegram, as well as the online betting platform 1XBet, saying they’re used by “terrorists” to spread “horrific images and misinformation.” – The Record

One of the most infamous cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, or CI, occurred in May 2021, when the Colonial Pipeline was hit with ransomware. The breach resulted in shutdown of pipeline operations, a gasoline shortage and a spike in fuel prices. – C4ISRNET