Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The assailants who pulled off the mysterious killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh this week in Tehran did so by getting a bomb into his heavily guarded room at an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps guesthouse, people familiar with the circumstances said. – Wall Street Journal

Israel has determined that it killed top Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif in a July airstrike, the country’s military said Thursday, eliminating a planner of the Oct. 7 attacks and a militant it had tried to kill for decades. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli military confirmed on Thursday that it had killed Al-Jazeera journalist Ismail Al-Ghoul in an airstrike in Gaza, saying he was a Hamas operative who had taken part in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. – Reuters

Warning sirens sounded in northern Israel, the Israeli military said on Thursday, amid heightened alert over the possibility of retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah following the assassination of a senior commander this week. – Reuters

Israeli forces hit a school in Shejaia in Gaza City on Thursday, killing at least 15 people and wounding 29, Palestinian civil emergency services said, as fighting continued in various parts of the Gaza Strip. – Reuters

Israel’s national security council warned Israelis on Thursday to exercise extra caution when travelling abroad and said Iran or its allies Hamas and Hezbollah could target Israeli or Jewish institutions outside the country. – Reuters

US President Joe Biden told Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a cease-fire with Hamas as the White House’s frustrations over the continuation of the war in Gaza grow. – Bloomberg

Qatar on Friday is due to hold funeral ceremonies for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh after his killing in Tehran, an attack blamed on Israel that has deepened fears of a regional escalation. – Agence France-Presse

Palestinian militant group Hamas called for a “day of furious rage” on Friday, coinciding with the burial of its slain leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar. – Agence France-Presse

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday urged “all parties” in the Middle East to stop “escalatory actions” and achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, after Hamas’s political leader was killed in a strike in Tehran that Iran blamed on Israel. – Agence France-Presse

The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday said it was on “high alert” as the country braces for a response to the assassinations this week of Hezbollah’s military chief in Beirut and Hamas’s leader in Tehran, but pledging that the military knows how to handle any threat. – Times of Israel

More airlines canceled flights to Israel on Thursday amid spiraling tensions in the Middle East, bringing to 10 the total number of airlines that have announced cancelations. – Times of Israel

Editorial: We are not alone. We have powerful friends in the United States and worldwide, and we appreciate their support for our tiny but mighty nation. Ultimately, we are all in this together and need to support one another as much as possible at this difficult time. Someone put it succinctly in a social media post: “We might be a little nation, but we are one big family.” – Jerusalem Post

Gil Troy writes: These findings may offend the conflict-averse Western mind. But that doesn’t change the truth: Negotiating with jihadists telegraphs weakness. Americans should stop demanding cease-fires and trying to mollify the perpetrators of terror. Only by projecting power, unifying the West behind Israel and intimidating Iran and its lackeys can the U.S. restore global stability. America owes Israel a debt of gratitude for taking the lead—plus $5 million. – Wall Street Journal

Walter Russell Mead writes: As Iran and Hezbollah mull their options for retaliation, as Team Biden ponders its response to Israel’s refusal to follow Washington’s lead, and as Israeli politicians adjust to the new political situation, the risks of an expanding Middle East war are real. But the strikes in Beirut and Tehran have likely had a healthy deterrent effect. We can hope that, as has happened so often in the past, Hezbollah and Iran will limit their responses to Israel’s attacks out of respect for Israel’s power. – Wall Street Journal

Russia & Ukraine

On the list of Americans released by Vladimir Putin in an epic prisoner swap today, nobody was unluckier than Paul Whelan. Arrested by Russian counterintelligence officers three days after Christmas in 2018, the 54-year-old former Marine and Iraq War veteran spent more time in the gulag than any of the others. – Wall Street Journal

Russia freed wrongly convicted Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich as part of the largest and most complex East-West prisoner swap since the Cold War, in which he and more than a dozen others jailed by the Kremlin were exchanged for Russians held in the U.S. and Europe, including a convicted murderer. – Wall Street Journal

Vladimir Putin on Thursday secured the release of spies, hackers and his most coveted Russian prisoner in the West: an assassin linked to intelligence services convicted of murder in Germany. For the authoritarian Russian leader, it was the biggest victory yet stemming from his willingness to violate global norms to extract what he wants from Western leaders. – Washington Post

Russian missile troops held drills on a disputed island which both Japan and Russia claim as their own, the Interfax news agency cited Russia’s Defence Ministry as saying on Thursday. – Reuters

Sitting in a spartan, third-class train carriage about to leave Pokrovsk’s railway station in eastern Ukraine, Volodymyr Arkhipov reflected on the grinding Russian advances which this week forced him to flee his second home in two years. – Reuters

The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russian forces would shoot down U.S.-built F-16 fighter jets sent to Ukraine, and that the F-16s would have no significant impact on the course of the war. – Reuters

A mother and her daughter were killed by Russian shelling that hit the town of Nikopol in Ukraine’s eastern Dnipropetrovsk region, its governor said on Thursday. – Reuters

When world leaders gathered in Switzerland in June to discuss the war in Ukraine, the choreography offered a glimpse into the power games playing out behind the scenes in Kyiv as Volodymyr Zelenskiy seeks to maintain support. – Bloomberg

Editorial: It became necessary to trade these guilty parties for innocent ones, but let there be no hint of moral equivalency between them — much less between the democracies that sought humanely to end the captivity and the Russian despotism that cynically initiated it. – Washington Post

Christian Caryl writes: In reality, people like Kara-Murza and Yashin have acted as defenders of their people’s rights and freedoms. They aren’t spies and never have been — and you can be sure that Putin knows it. But he can’t afford to admit that. He can’t allow that plenty of Russians want to change their country for the better — that they, not the cyberthugs and murderers, are the real patriots. – Washington Post

Turkey

It was unclear how important a role Turkey played in the many months of negotiations that led to Thursday’s swap. Still, the fact that the complex, multicountry exchange occurred on Turkish soil allowed the country to cast itself as a key player on the world stage. – New York Times

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday declared Friday, Aug 2, a day of national mourning over the killing of the head of Hamas’ political bureau Ismail Haniyeh. – Reuters

Turkey has blocked cooperation between NATO and Israel since October because of the war in Gaza and said the alliance should not engage with Israel as a partner until there is an end to the conflict, sources familiar with the process said. – Reuters

Parliament’s decision to strip a jailed opposition lawmaker of his seat is “null and void”, Turkey’s Constitutional Court has ruled, prompting calls by his lawyer and the opposition for his release and return to the assembly. – Reuters

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Pope Francis in a call on Thursday that the “immoral” Olympics opening ceremony had made a mockery of sacred values and called for a common stand to be taken against it, his office said. – Reuters

Turkey’s internet regulator blocked access to Instagram after a senior aide to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticized the social media platform for “censorship” of posts related to Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh’s death. – Bloomberg

Middle East & North Africa

UAE-based artificial intelligence company G42 is actively working with U.S. partners and the Emirati government to comply with AI development and deployment standards, amid concerns about its ties to China. – Reuters

Oil prices settled more than $1 lower on Thursday as global supply seemed largely unaffected by worries of a wider Middle East crisis after the killing of a Hamas leader in Iran, and as investors refocused on demand concerns. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed with the United Arab Emirates Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, release hostages and increase humanitarian assistance, the U.S. mission to the Gulf Arab state said on Friday. – Reuters

Arman Mahmoudian writes: Evidently, as long as there are military threats to Bashar al-Assad’s government on the ground in Syria, members of the Axis of Resistance will be cautious in pursuing an ambitious agenda against Israel that could trigger a two-fold conflict in the region: with Israel in the south and the United States in the east and north. – Foreign Policy

China

China installed more solar-power capacity last year than the U.S. has built in its history. Now Beijing is worried that the push may have gone too far in some places as solar farms encroach on cropland, undermining leader Xi Jinping’s goal of ensuring China can feed itself. – Wall Street Journal

China’s embassy in Berlin on Thursday dismissed as groundless German charges that Beijing was behind a cyber attack on a German government agency in 2021, accusing it of “anti-China political manipulation”. – Reuters

China vowed to deliver better public services for workers who moved to cities from the countryside, an effort that would boost the economy by removing an obstacle to urbanization. – Bloomberg

President Xi Jinping’s warm welcome for the Italian prime minister offers a pointed reminder to European leaders of the economic benefits of engaging with China — and also of the potential risks. – Bloomberg

Karishma Vaswani writes: In an era of rising geopolitical tensions not just between the US and China, but all around the world, Hessler’s latest book is a timely reminder of how even a 100-year-old party can be forced to change if it doesn’t deliver the goods to the next generation. As he writes in the book, the challenges for a young person in the 1990s were clear: “Get educated, move to the city, escape poverty.” Thirty years later, he says, the problems run deeper, and “something fundamental about the system needs to change.” Don’t write the last chapter in China’s story just yet. – Bloomberg

Wang Jisi, Hu Ran, and Zhao Jianwei write: For a long time to come, U.S.-Chinese relations seem unlikely to return to the deep exchanges and cooperation that occurred at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Yet if a rapprochement is out of the question, China and the United States can still maintain stability and avoid catastrophe, whoever is in the Oval Office. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

Japan appoints former top currency diplomat Masato Kanda as special adviser to the cabinet, government spokesperson Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Thursday. – Reuters

The Thai government’s vaunted policy of giving away 10,000 baht ($282) to most of its population had an early setback on Thursday when millions rushed to sign up on the opening day and crashed the registration system. – Reuters

Israeli air strikes that killed international aid workers in Gaza in April were the result of serious operational failures but were not intentional, according to a Australian government review of the incident released on Friday. – Reuters

The Philippines and Japan held their first joint military exercises in the South China Sea on Friday, the Philippine armed forces said, in the latest collaboration between countries that have pushed back against China’s regional assertiveness. – Reuters

With large parts of the world in turmoil and deep uncertainty over the future direction of America’s global role, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sought this week to project an aura of calm normalcy as he traveled through Asia on his first overseas mission since President Joe Biden jolted the 2024 presidential race with his withdrawal. – Associated Press

Africa

On Thursday, thousands of mostly young Nigerians took to the streets in the capital Abuja, in the economic hub of Lagos and in other cities across Africa’s most populous nation, despite warnings of a crackdown from the country’s authorities. – Wall Street Journal

Famine has officially been declared in the Darfur region of Sudan, where hundreds of thousands of people under siege have fled their homes during the country’s 15-month civil war, two organizations that monitor world hunger announced on Thursday. – New York Times

Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbe has retained Victoire Sidemeho Tomegah-Dogbe as prime minister and a government will be formed in the coming days in line with a new constitution, the presidency said on Thursday. – Reuters

Tanzania on Thursday launched a 541-km modern standard gauge railway running between its administrative and commercial capitals, built by a Turkish firm as part of a government drive to improve transport infrastructure. – Reuters

Zimbabwe police have arrested 18 political activists and hauled some of them off a plane, their lawyers said Thursday, in the latest clampdown by the government after warning it would crush opposition protests ahead of its hosting of a meeting of the southern African heads of state this month. – Associated Press

Islamic State-backed insurgents in Mozambique who’ve been operating near a $20 billion liquefied natural gas project that TotalEnergies SE aims to resume this year are becoming increasingly active and are employing more sophisticated tactics, a United Nations report warned this week. – Bloomberg

United States

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday the killing of Palestinian Islamist group Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh was not helpful for a ceasefire in Israel’s war in Gaza. – Reuters

A US House of Representatives committee is threatening to subpoena Columbia University for not complying with an investigation into reports of antisemitism on campus. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Meantime, while the U.S. was negotiating this deal, the Israelis showed how they deal with terrorists. They targeted and killed a Hezbollah leader in Lebanon and a Hamas leader in Iran for their roles in attacks on the Jewish state. Our guess is that most Americans, upon learning of this plea deal with KSM and his associates, aren’t asking about its terms. They’re wondering why more than two decades after the deadliest terror attack on America, he’s still alive. – Wall Street Journal

Marc A. Thiessen writes: Israel took out the Hezbollah commander who they say killed 12 kids in a matter of days, and then eliminated the architect of the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust in less than a year. But three years later, Biden has done nothing to punish those responsible for the deaths of the brave Americans who gave their lives executing his catastrophic policy of retreat in Afghanistan. That is a national disgrace. – Washington Post

Defense

A “catastrophic” gearbox failure caused an Osprey aircraft to crash off the coast of Japan last year, killing all eight personnel aboard, though crew actions also contributed to the accident, the U.S. Air Force said Thursday. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. Air Force expects its annual foreign military sales to grow by 60% this fiscal year due largely to increases in F-35 and F-16 purchases. – Defense News

The Army tested artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms for the first time at an annual experimentation to understand unknown signals on the battlefield. – DefenseScoop

Julia Gledhill writes: Current laws are insufficient even to document price gouging by military contractors, much less prevent or remedy it. If retained in the final defense policy bill, Rep. Doggett’s provision would help the Pentagon better understand the scope of overcharging by sole source contractors—and ultimately, give lawmakers the information they need to hold industry accountable for overcharging the government at the expense of the taxpayer. – The National Interest