Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Gaza cease-fire talks to resume in Qatar without Hamas in attendance Commentary’s Seth Mandel: Leaked documents vindicate Netanyahu on ceasefire deal Iran police shot a woman while trying to seize her car over hijab law violation, activists say WSJ’s Sadanand Dhume: The politics of Iran’s alleged plot against Donald Trump Ukraine’s incursion into Russia flips the script on Putin WSJ Editorial: Ukraine shocks Russia in Kursk Turkey will continue to increase pressure on Israel, Erdogan tells Palestinian leader Abbas South Korea's Yoon seeks dialogue, path to unification with isolated North India pressed U.S. to go easy on Bangladeshi leader before her ouster, officials say Contaminants found at German military base, and sabotage Is suspected Columbia President resigns after months of turmoil on campus New York man accused of being Egyptian agent pleads guilty to lesser chargeIn The News
Israel
Negotiations over a Gaza cease-fire and hostage release deal will resume Thursday in Doha, Qatar. The United States and mediating partners Egypt and Qatar will be joined by Israeli representatives, but Hamas will not attend, a member of the negotiating team confirmed Wednesday. – Washington Post
Israel has achieved all that it can militarily in Gaza, according to senior American officials, who say continued bombings are only increasing risks to civilians while the possibility of further weakening Hamas has diminished. – New York Times
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday and discussed the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, Axios reported, citing two U.S. sources. – Reuters
Israel has published plans for one of its proposed new settlements in the occupied West Bank, finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Wednesday, upping the ante a day before planned new Gaza peace talks seen as vital to preventing a regional war – Reuters
Israel said its forces had hit Palestinian militants in Tamoun in the occupied West Bank on Wednesday while Hamas said its fighters were engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces in nearby Tubas city after one was killed in an Israeli raid. – Reuters
A top Hamas official said the Palestinian militant group is losing faith in the United States’ ability to mediate a cease-fire in Gaza ahead of a new round of talks scheduled for this week amid mounting pressure to bring an end to the 10-month-old war with Israel. – Associated Press
Two Palestinian gunmen were killed in an Israeli drone strike in the West Bank’s Balata refugee camp near Nablus early Thursday morning. – Times of Israel
Seth Mandel writes: That calculation is at the heart of every such deal Israel makes with its enemies. Netanyahu himself has made such deals—most notably, the one in which October 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar was freed. Perhaps that experience has made Netanyahu more hesitant to dismiss the security ramifications of these tradeoffs. But let’s be clear that that tradeoff is what we’re discussing, not some imagined intransigence by the prime minister. – Commentary
Iran
The Biden administration is trying to head off strikes that could exceed Iran’s April launch of 300 missiles and drones at Israel, the biggest test yet of its nearly four-year effort to contain the regime. Tehran, which prefers using proxies against its adversaries, is considering whether to retaliate directly again, even at the risk of a broader war. – Wall Street Journal
On a darkened road beside the Caspian Sea, Iranian police officers opened fire last month on a 31-year-old woman who had tried to speed away likely knowing they wanted to seize her vehicle. – Associated Press
Two weeks after Iran vowed to retaliate for the killing of a senior Hamas leader, the biggest surprise has been that the attack still hasn’t happened yet. – Bloomberg
The Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and other banks were targeted on Wednesday as part of a significant cyber attack that led to widespread disruptions in the country’s banking system, Iran International reported. – Jerusalem Post
Sadanand Dhume writes: But Iran’s penchant for trouble-making isn’t confined to the Middle East. Mr. Pipes notes that the country has maintained its revolutionary fervor under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been supreme leader since 1989 […]Mr. Byman points out that Iran usually makes inroads into countries with weak governments, and cultivates sub-national or regional assets. For Pakistanis and Afghans, it’s a reminder that the ayatollahs won’t limit their meddling to the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
Dana Stroul writes: But the prospects for the success of the talks are grim: Hamas has rejected any adjustments to the cease-fire framework, and the negotiating team of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has reportedly accused him of undermining the negotiations. Iran, recognizing the distance between the parties, appears to be seeking to legitimatize its use of force against Israel. If that’s true, all those who want to prevent the big war should reject Iran’s cynical play and prepare actions to break Iran’s stranglehold over the region. – New York Times
Jon B. Alterman and Sanam Vakil write: A clear-eyed assessment of what the IRGC’s leaders genuinely fear and what they are willing to live with can illuminate pathways to a reduction in tensions. Pezeshkian may help facilitate better relations, or he may prove irrelevant. Either way, the United States’ approach should seek accountability and consistency and allow for the possibility of the pragmatic accommodation that it has pursued with Egypt. Such an approach is more likely to serve U.S. interests over the long term. The alternative path of pressure will only strengthen the IRGC’s grip on the country and push the IRGC to double down on confrontation. – Foreign Affairs
Russia & Ukraine
Ukraine’s surprise incursion into a sliver of Russia’s Kursk region last week has not shifted the overall course of the war, but it has already struck a blow well beyond the few hundred square miles of Russia that Ukraine now controls: It has thrust a Russian government and society that had largely adapted to war into a new phase of improvisation and uncertainty. – New York Times
Authorities in Russia’s Kursk region have decided to evacuate the population of its Glushkov district, acting governor Alexei Smirnov said late on Wednesday, amid the continued advance of Ukrainian forces into the border region. – Reuters
Ukraine’s air force said on Thursday that it shot down all 29 Russia-launched drones over eight Ukrainian regions during an overnight attack, which officials said caused only minor damage. – Reuters
Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in Ukraine’s southern city of Odesa on Wednesday evening, injuring at least two people, Ukrainian officials said. – Reuters
Russian lawmaker Maria Butina on Wednesday said that the West was involved in the Ukrainian incursion into sovereign Russian territory and was thus “poking the bear” in a dangerous escalation. – Reuters
Russian drones attacked a medical battalion vehicle in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, killing two people and wounding three more, the regional police said. – Reuters
Senior Kyiv officials said on Wednesday Ukraine was creating a “buffer zone” in Russia’s Kursk region and plans to organise humanitarian assistance and evacuation corridors for civilians looking to go either to Russia or to Ukraine. – Reuters
A Moscow court sentenced U.S. citizen Joseph Tater to 15 days in jail on Wednesday for petty hooliganism, according to a Telegram channel monitoring the city’s courts. – Reuters
Ukraine said on Wednesday it carried out its largest long-range drone strike of the war on four Russian military airfields overnight, which were hailed by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “timely” and “accurate”. – Reuters
Editorial: The U.S. can help Ukraine build on the incursion’s momentum by surging weapons and removing restraints on their use. Current restrictions mean Russia doesn’t have to worry about missile strikes on air bases, weapons-manufacturing facilities and other war infrastructure deep within its territory. The more the reality of the war is brought home to Russia, the sooner a serious negotiation might begin. – Wall Street Journal
Brian Michael Jenkins writes: We don’t know the details of the negotiations but, recalling the situation in 1980, the Biden administration may have feared that when Donald Trump boasted in a campaign ad that he could bring Gershkovich home immediately if elected, that might have been intended to persuade Putin to prolong the episode. Trump campaign managers may also have worried that President Biden would seek political advantage by bringing Gershkovich home on the eve of the election. – The Hill
Seth Mandel writes: But it has yet to bring the war to those Russian homes—at least, before the Kursk incursion. Losing Russian territory to Ukraine is a humiliation of the highest order for Putin. Russian illusions have been shattered, and they can’t be un-shattered. A frozen conflict on Putin’s own soil is as rich a comeuppance as could be imagined at the start of this war. All Ukraine wants, in the end, is its own territory back. Is there anyone in the White House or in the capitals of Western Europe who think the Ukrainians haven’t earned the help they need to accomplish that? – Commentary
Hezbollah
U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said on Wednesday he believed all-out war between Israel and Lebanon’s powerful militant group Hezbollah could be avoided but that Israel and Hamas needed to move towards a peace agreement for Gaza without further delay. – Reuters
A senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden said Wednesday it’s critical to take advantage of “this window for diplomatic action” to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and ongoing hostilities along the Lebanon-Israel border, fearing that escalations could spiral “out of control.” – Associated Press
The Israeli military on Wednesday killed two Hezbollah operatives in a drone strike in southern Lebanon, as the Iranian-backed terror group fired several rocket barrages at northern Israel over the course of the day. – Times of Israel
Middle East & North Africa
U.S. President Joe Biden called on Wednesday for the immediate release of Austin Tice, a former U.S. Marine and a freelance journalist who was kidnapped in Syria in August 2012. – Reuters
Senior Turkish and Iraqi officials will hold high-level talks in Ankara on Thursday to develop cooperation on security issues, a Turkish diplomatic source said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told visiting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Wednesday that Turkey will continue to support the Palestinian cause and push the international community to increase pressure on Israel, his office said. – Reuters
The Saudi royal has mentioned to members of Congress that he’s putting his life in danger by pursuing a grand bargain with the U.S. and Israel that includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties. On at least one occasion, he has invoked Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader slain after striking a peace deal with Israel, asking what the U.S. did to protect Sadat. – Politico
As Israelis wait in uncertainty and trepidation for an Iranian attack that may or may not materialize in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, some media outlets in the Arab world have begun to ridicule Tehran’s perceived empty threats and grandstanding. – Times of Israel
Korean Peninsula
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol offered on Thursday to establish a working-level consultative body with North Korea to discuss ways to ease tension and resume economic cooperation, as he laid out his vision on unification of the neighbours. – Reuters
North Korea will resume international tourism to its northeastern city of Samjiyon in December, and possibly the rest of the country, tour companies said on Wednesday. – Reuters
The US expressed frustration Wednesday that North Korea is continuing to refuse to allow teams into the reclusive country to recover the remains of American casualties from the Korean War. – CNN
China
China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday the United States, Britain and Australia should not advance their nuclear submarine cooperation until the international community has reached a consensus on safeguards and other issues. – Reuters
China has resubmitted plans to build a new large embassy in London, a contested project that could test how the new Labour government handles relations with the world’s second largest economy after years of diplomatic tensions and disputes. – Reuters
A Hong Kong court jailed pro-democracy activist Owen Chow for three days on Wednesday and fined his solicitor, Phyllis Woo, for taking a document out of prison without authorisation. – Reuters
China’s top diplomat on Wednesday visited Myanmar and met with the leader of its military government as growing instability from the neighboring country’s civil war causes concern in Beijing. – Associated Press
China urged European nations to focus on the results of an investigation into damage to a key undersea pipeline last year after a senior Estonian official questioned a Chinese probe that reportedly called it an accident. – Bloomberg
Heidi Holz writes: To win the battle for the narrative, the United States should designate and adequately fund an entity to inform its strategic communications planning in ways that anticipate adversary messages and get ahead of them. Fulfilling this mission will require comprehensive analysis of China’s influence efforts — overt, covert, digital, human, and analog — rooted in an understanding of the party. – War on the Rocks
South Asia
A year before she was deposed last week in a student uprising, Indian officials began to lobby their U.S. counterparts to stop pressuring Sheikh Hasina, the ironfisted prime minister of neighboring Bangladesh, according to U.S. and Indian officials. – Washington Post
Now the 84-year-old is in charge of Bangladesh, a country of 170 million, after student protests rocked the country and forced the abrupt resignation of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. As Yunus makes the transition from development expert to statesman, any stumbles could spell trouble ahead for the strife-torn country. – Wall Street Journal
The Indian and Russian central banks have renewed discussions to set a mechanism to expand local currency trade, in a move to iron out payment issues after a surge in bilateral trade since the war on Ukraine in 2022, a government source said. – Reuters
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday expressed concern over the unrest that led to a change of government in neighboring Bangladesh and the attacks on Hindus and other minorities there. – Associated Press
Prime Minister Narendra Modi once again called for a replacement of India’s religion-based laws with a uniform civil code, a move that’s been opposed by some minority groups. – Bloomberg
Asia
Thirty-nine candidates for Sri Lanka’s presidential election submitted nominations on Thursday as the Indian Ocean island nation prepares for a Sept. 21 vote key to charting its path out of a gruelling financial crisis. – Reuters
The biggest party in Thailand’s caretaker government met on Thursday to choose a successor for dismissed premier Srettha Thavisin, as it races to shore up alliances a day ahead of a pivotal parliamentary vote on a new prime minister. – Reuters
Japan marked the anniversary on Thursday of its defeat in World War Two with visits by at least three cabinet ministers to the controversial Yasukuni shrine that other Asian nations see as a symbol of the country’s wartime aggression. – Reuters
China has promised technical support and aid to military-run Myanmar for conducting a census, followed by an election, state media said on Thursday, signalling Beijing’s backing to a junta cornered by an armed rebellion and steadily losing ground. – Reuters
Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Wednesday urged his colleagues to embrace change and seek out a candidate that will transform an unpopular incumbent party with bleak electoral prospects. – Reuters
The ouster of Thailand’s leader less than 12 months after taking office makes one thing clear: The royalist establishment that has engineered long stretches of military-backed rule over the past two decades still holds all the power. – Bloomberg
Europe
Two military bases in Germany were put under heightened security on Wednesday after contaminants were found in the water supply of barracks at one site — the result of possible sabotage, the military said — and an intruder attempted to forcibly enter a NATO base in the country. – New York Times
A European arrest warrant was issued for a Ukrainian man suspected of involvement in blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline nearly two years ago, Polish prosecutors said on Wednesday. – New York Times
Poland received a European arrest warrant issued by Berlin in connection with the 2022 attack on Nord Stream pipelines, but the suspect, a Ukrainian man named as Volodymyr Z, has already left Poland, Polish prosecutors told Reuters. – Reuters
Two German airports have temporarily suspended flights on Thursday morning after climate activists breached the airfields as part of a larger protest targeting four airports nationwide. – Reuters
Nordic countries will increase police cooperation and form a hub in Stockholm in an effort to prevent Sweden’s serious gang crime problem from spreading to Norway, Finland and Denmark, the Swedish government said on Wednesday. – Reuters
A German court on Wednesday overturned a publishing ban on Compact magazine, described by the government as a “mouthpiece of the right-wing extremist scene”, pending a final decision on efforts to outlaw the publication. – Reuters
Greece, with assistance from Israel, has arrested eight foreign nationals, dismantling a criminal ring that used yachts to traffic drugs from Europe to Israel, police said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Britain’s aviation regulator has selected six projects, including one by e-commerce giant Amazon, to test the use of drones in deliveries, inspection of infrastructure and emergency services, it said on Thursday. – Reuters
Polish prosecutors said Wednesday that they formally indicted a Russian-Spanish man on espionage charges, after Poland freed him from prison earlier this month so that he could be included in a prisoner swap between Russia and the West. – Associated Press
Africa
The rapid spread of mpox, formerly called monkeypox, in African countries constitutes a global health emergency, the World Health Organization declared on Wednesday. – New York Times
Gunmen kidnapped two South Korean missionaries in northern Kenya, near the border of Ethiopia, on Monday evening while eight Kenyans were shot dead in a separate incident in the region, local officials said. – Reuters
Chad opened on Wednesday a consulate in Western Sahara, joining African and Arab countries that have established diplomatic missions there in a sign of support for Morocco’s claim to the disputed territory. – Reuters
A spokesperson for Mali’s Tuareg rebel alliance said it received no external assistance in fighting in late July that dealt a significant blow to Mali’s army and its Wagner partners, nor has it received any help from Ukraine. – Reuters
Suspected jihadists ambushed a military convoy carrying more than 1,000 civilians in Burkina Faso last week, leading to civilian deaths and injuries, the regional governor said in a statement published on Wednesday, without providing a death toll. – Reuters
Nigerian lawmakers are considering a bill that would impose punishments of up to 10 years in jail for actions deemed subversive, a move that crtics see as an attempt to crack down on dissent following a wave of anti-government protests. – Reuters
Talks aimed at ending Sudan’s shattering 16-month-old civil war began on Wednesday in Switzerland although the absence of the military dampened hopes for imminent steps to alleviate the country’s humanitarian crisis. – Reuters
South Sudan is not ready to hold its first post-independence elections in December and political players are discussing whether voting should be held this year, the U.N.’s top envoy in the troubled African country said Wednesday. – Associated Press
The Americas
Ecuador’s government said in a statement on Wednesday that a request by Vice President Veronica Abad that the country’s electoral court remove President Daniel Noboa from his post is an attempt at a “coup”. – Reuters
The presidents of Brazil and Colombia discussed options for negotiating an end to the Venezuelan crisis in a phone call on Wednesday, Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said. – Reuters
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Wednesday that he will discuss a “long-term strategic partnership” with China when he meets his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later this year in Brazil. – Reuters
Charles Lane writes: Perhaps the brave people of Venezuela can find a way to win, and perhaps the United States can find an effective way, through amnesty, sanctions or some combination, to support them. Otherwise, the lesson of this episode will be: With enough ruthlessness and unequivocal support from U.S. adversaries, a dictatorship in the Western Hemisphere can kill and jail its own people and steal elections — and get away with it. – Washington Post
Rainer Zitelmann writes: Milei’s success will depend, above all, on whether Argentinians have the patience required to give his reforms the time they will need to succeed. Milei has the potential to achieve the same level of success as Former Deputy Prime Minister of Poland Leszek Balcerowicz and former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom. However, in both cases, things started off by getting worse (e.g., economic output fell) before getting much better. This is always the case with market economy reforms, and one can only hope Milei’s supporters will understand this and not lose patience. After all, decades of damage cannot be fixed in a year. – Washington Examiner
North America
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador told a morning press conference on Wednesday that he would send a diplomatic note to the United States over what he called interference regarding U.S. donations to opposition civil organizations. – Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden said in a phone call with Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino that US-funded flights would start this month to repatriate migrants illegally crossing into Panama through the Darien jungle, according to a Panama government statement. – Reuters
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness on Wednesday declared a state of emergency in the Caribbean nation’s southern Clarendon parish after eight people were killed in separate gun attacks on Sunday night, including a seven-year-old boy. – Reuters
Mexican prosecutors said on Wednesday they were investigating the disappearance of two bodyguards the same day as last month’s dramatic U.S. arrest of one of the founders of the infamous Sinaloa Cartel, alongside the son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. – Reuters
United States
Columbia University’s president, Nemat Shafik, resigned on Wednesday after months of far-reaching fury over her handling of pro-Palestinian demonstrations and questions over her management of a bitterly divided campus. – New York Times
A New York man who was indicted in 2022 on felony charges of acting as an unregistered agent of Egypt’s government pleaded guilty on Wednesday to a lesser charge, in the latest stumble for U.S. prosecutors trying to clamp down on foreign influence. – Reuters
The University of California in Los Angeles cannot allow pro-Palestinian protesters to block Jewish students from accessing campus buildings, classes and services, a federal judge has ruled. –Reuters
More than three dozen pro-Palestinian protesters accused of blocking a main road into the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in April are set to have misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct and failing to disperse dropped. – Associated Press
The US trails only Turkey and Russia among the world’s biggest economies likeliest to see violent political turmoil in the next year, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis that tries to capture an uneasy national mood after the assassination attempt against Donald Trump. – Bloomberg
Pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel protesters disrupted a presidential campaign rally for US Vice President Kamala Harris in Harlem, New York City, on Wednesday, bursting inside and interrupting speeches with chants and slogans. – Times of Israel
Zachary Faria writes: Public universities should not need a judge to tell them this. The moment antisemites or any other bigots begin discriminating against students and preventing them from moving around a campus they are paying to use is the moment law enforcement should be called. UCLA should have been swift in its punishment for students who took part in these “protests” and supported bringing the hammer down on outsiders who invaded UCLA’s campus. – Washington Examiner
Cybersecurity
A U.S. judge on Wednesday said he was planning to issue an order forcing Alphabet’s Google to give Android users more ways to download apps, but would not micromanage the tech giant’s business, following a jury verdict last year for “Fortnite” maker Epic Games. – Reuters
Meta Platforms’ Instagram failed to remove abusive comments aimed at female politicians who are potential candidates for the 2024 U.S. elections, according to a report by the non-profit Center for Countering Digital Hate on Wednesday. – Reuters
Hackers linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted the Trump and Biden presidential campaigns amid increased phishing attacks against U.S. and Israeli officials and institutions, according to a new report from Google’s Threat Analysis Group. – Cyberscoop
Russian government-connected hackers targeted people working for Eastern European human rights-focused groups, media outlets and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine with crafty email spear-phishing lures that appeared to come from acquaintances or family, according to research released Wednesday. – Cyberscoop
Researchers are tracking two Russia-aligned phishing campaigns that targeted human rights organizations, independent media and civil society members from Eastern Europe and the U.S. – The Record
Gretchen Peters writes: In an age of catfishing and “deep-fake” technologies, there’s a need to update outdated laws on forgeries and impersonation. And we should consider giving Americans the “right to be forgotten,” as Europeans already enjoy. There are also important discussions we as a nation ought to have about privacy, data ownership and how to best respond to the thorny trade-offs around encryption technologies. On top of that, our law enforcement procedures, government agencies and federal grant programs need to be updated for the Digital Age. – The Hill
Defense
The U.S. and French Navy conducted bilateral operations in the Philippine Sea on Tuesday to advance their interoperability “in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific”, the U.S. 7th Fleet said in a statement on Thursday. – Reuters
The U.S. Navy’s deployment of new extremely long-range air-to-air missiles in the Indo-Pacific could erase China’s advantage in aerial reach, experts say, part of an intensifying focus on projecting power amid high tensions in the region. – Reuters
German defense giant Rheinmetall has acquired Michigan-based advanced manufacturing company Loc Performance Products for $950 million as its American subsidiary vies for some of the biggest U.S. Army vehicle production business available in decades. – Defense News
An electrical fire in a transformer forced USCGC Healy (WAGB-20), one of two American icebreakers, to cancel its Arctic mission, USNI News has learned. This is the second time in four years that a fire cut Healy’s summer mission short. – USNI News
The Army is set to expand how many new recruits it can send to basic training starting in October, as officials are confident the service is digging out of a recruiting slump it has struggled with for nearly a decade. – Military.com
Navy and Marine leaders have until Sept. 15 to bring troops up to speed on “permissible and impermissible” political activities, the services said in respective messages issued July 17 and Aug. 12. – Military.com
Jim Perkins and Mike McGinley writes: People — not technology — are America’s decisive military advantage. The American military trains leaders to be bold, creative, and innovative, and civilian leadership at the secretariat level should act now to unlock human capital for modern wars. Personnel policy reform is hard work and these changes are critical now. Defense Department policymakers and Congress have a crucial opportunity to ensure that America has the policy foundations to bring the whole of the military — and, if needed, the whole of society — to bear against America’s enemies. – War on the Rocks