Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

The U.S. ambassador to Russia was granted access to jailed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on Monday in the third such visit since his detention in March. – Wall Street Journal

Ukraine’s military registered an advance in the southeast and a successful raid over the Dnipro River in the south that snagged a high-level Russian officer, a boost to its slow-moving counteroffensive. – Wall Street Journal

The Russian military’s decision to fire warning shots and board a freighter in the Black Sea this weekend has added a new level of uncertainty to the increasingly intense maritime theater of war, as Moscow, apparently for the first time, made good on its threat to treat Ukraine-bound civilian shipping as potentially hostile. – New York Times

Russia has begun making copies of attack drones it acquired from Iran last year and is using them in combat against Ukrainian forces despite sanctions imposed to cripple the country’s weapons production, according to a report issued Thursday by a weapons research group. – New York Times

The U.S. on Monday announced a $200 million security assistance package for Ukraine, providing Kyiv with another round of munitions and tactical vehicles for use in the fight against Russia. – The Hill

Russia is deploying hypersonic missiles on a new class of nuclear-powered submarines, according to a Russian businessman. Alexei Rakhmanov, the CEO of the Russian-government-owned company United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), told state-run media outlet RIA Novosty that Yasen class nuclear submarines will be outfitted with Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles. – The Hill

Michael Bohnert writes: As the VKS devotes a greater share of its dwindling force to countering those, it will have fewer aircraft left to support Russian ground operations. VKS fighters in the sky will also be less capable, stemming from two years of overuse. This happens even if F-16s fail to score a single air-to-air kill, and an upgraded Ukrainian fighter and air defense threat will score many. – Defense News

Afghanistan

As a generation of fighters raised in war now finds itself stuck in a country at peace, hundreds of young Taliban soldiers have crossed illegally into Pakistan to battle alongside an insurgent group, according to Taliban members, local leaders and security analysts. – New York Times

The Islamic State group still commands between 5,000 and 7,000 members across its former stronghold in Syria and Iraq and its fighters pose the most serious terrorist threat in Afghanistan today, U.N. experts said in a report circulated Monday. – Associated Press

Annie Yu Kleiman writes: It doesn’t have to be this way. The U.S. government can make life immeasurably better for tens of thousands of Afghan allies and their families. It can grant categorical parole to SIV applicants who are ready for their interviews and fly them to the United States to finish the process in safety. It can dedicate more State Department resources to speeding up SIV applications. And it can establish a permanent SIV program to ensure this doesn’t happen to future allies. The United States must do better. – Washington Post

Talgat Kaliyev writes: During recent talks with the Taliban, Washington representatives confirmed that the United States is open to discussions on economic stability and continued dialogue on counternarcotics. […]The next step should be for the United States to work with Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries to reintegrate Afghanistan into the regional economic structures. This will reduce the threat of extremism and terrorism, limit the spread of narcotics, and expand alternative trade routes—objectives that are in the common interest of Central Asia and the United States. – The National Interest

Gulf States

The U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen will visit the Gulf on Monday “to advance ongoing un-led efforts to expand the truce and launch a comprehensive peace process,” the U.S. State Department said in a statement. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s appointment of its first ambassador to the Palestinian Authority, who will also serve as consul general to Jerusalem, was not coordinated with Israel, and Israeli diplomatic figures are struggling to gauge its implications for the efforts to normalize relations with the kingdom. – Haaretz

As oil-rich Gulf states seek to diversify their military partnerships, they are finding themselves ensnared in the intensifying rivalry for global dominance between the United States and China. One of America’s closest allies in the region, the United Arab Emirates plans to hold its first-ever military drill with China this month, the Chinese defense ministry announced late last month. – CNN

Neville Teller writes: In fact, UN Resolution 2216 does embrace the idea of a democratic federally united Yemen. Backed by a UN peace-keeping force, a lasting political deal would involve the end of the Saudi-led military operation, the active involvement of the Houthis, the integration of the STC, however nominally independent, into a united Yemen, and probably a major financial commitment by Saudi Arabia to fund the rebuilding of the country. Can Grundberg bring about negotiations aimed at a peaceful transition to a political solution for a united Yemen? – Jerusalem Post

China

Can the Beijing-dominated group known as Brics successfully challenge America’s decades-long dominance of the global economy? In 2001, Goldman Sachs’s chief economist, Jim O’Neill, predicted that as a group Brazil, Russia, India, and China would within a decade surpass the world’s top economies. Next week the group, which was later organized under the acronym Brics, adding South Africa, will meet at Johannesburg for its most-anticipated annual gathering to date. – New York Sun

Editorial: The world knows how China oppresses its own people. What it needs to understand better is that Beijing wants to impose that oppression against anyone who dares to criticize the Communist regime anywhere in the world. – Wall Street Journal

Andreas Kluth writes: By allying himself with Russian President Vladimir Putin, increasingly a global pariah and geopolitical loser, Xi has committed one strategic blunder. By bullying smaller countries from Europe to Southeast Asia, he’s made another. By messing with his own economy, he’s made a third. Xi may yet conclude that he should try a more cooperative approach. If so, it’s in America’s interest to see him humble, not humiliated. Washington should therefore tone it down. – Bloomberg

Michael Singh writes: In addition to pointing out threats, U.S. officials should work with regional partners on initiatives that appeal to them while still tacitly countering Beijing. For example, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the capital to rival Chinese investments in infrastructure and mineral extraction in the developing world and could benefit from Western partnership in this regard. Failing that, they may wind up facilitating Beijing’s strategy by pursuing such opportunities with Chinese partners, which are proffered more readily at present. – Washington Institute

Nicole Robinson and Grace Phillips write: Submarine cable competition between the United States and China has serious implications for today’s information war. If China and the U.S. continue to bid against each other, countries will be forced to choose between their cable networks, forming a “digital Iron Curtain” that splits the internet ecosystem in two. Just like Cold War-era Germany, a boundary line will separate two ideological worlds. This time though, the Berlin Wall will be invisible, and the divide will not be one of peoples, but of information itself. – Heritage Foundation

Michael Rowand writes: News articles and public discussions of international affairs often focus on relationships and personalities. The rapport between leaders and policymakers often makes more engaging reading and discussion than the enduring structural factors that circumscribe those leaders. Questions of deportment and rumors of intrigue and conspiracy have always played a role in diplomacy. Such matters are magnified within an opaque governance system such as that of the People’s Republic of China. But while the drama of Qin’s disappearance and departure makes for good reading, it’s unlikely to shift Beijing’s policy. – Foreign Policy

Europe

Britain said its Typhoon fighter jets intercepted two Russian maritime patrol bomber aircraft in international airspace north of Scotland on Monday, within NATO’s northern air policing area. – Reuters

China’s defence minister Li Shangfu will visit Russia and Belarus from Aug. 14-19, the ministry said in a statement on Monday. While in Russia, Li will attend an international security meeting and make a speech there, according to the statement. He will also meet with leaders from Russia’s national defence department. – Reuters

Twenty-two Russian diplomats flew out of the Moldovan capital of Chisinau on Monday, leaving behind a skeleton staff as relations between the two countries deteriorated after Moldova last month ordered Moscow withdraw most of its delegation. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

The suspected Chinese hackers who forged Microsoft customer identities to read the emails of State Department employees also obtained the personal and political emails of Rep. Don Bacon, a moderate Republican from Nebraska on the House Armed Services Committee. – Washington Post

Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) Director Jen Easterly warned that the Chinese government would consider destructive or disruptive attacks on American pipelines, railroads and other critical infrastructure if it believed the U.S. would get involved during a potential invasion of Taiwan. – The Record

Chinese authorities have pledged to “publicly disclose a highly secretive global reconnaissance system” operated by the U.S. government following an investigation into the alleged hacking of earthquake monitoring equipment in Wuhan. – The Record