Fdd's overnight brief

August 14, 2024

In The News

Israel

As Israel braces for an attack from Iran and its ally Hezbollah, there is a debate here over whether now is the right time for the country to launch an offensive attack against the Lebanese militia or try to de-escalate to avoid triggering a wider regional war. – Wall Street Journal

The Biden administration has approved about $20 billion in new weapons sales to Israel over the next several years, amid fading hopes that a negotiating session scheduled for Thursday would lead to a Gaza cease-fire and hostage release. – Washington Post 

Hamas fired two rockets at Israel’s commercial hub Tel Aviv on Tuesday for the first time in months and Israeli airstrikes killed at least 19 Palestinians in Gaza, as mediators aimed to resume ceasefire talks later in the week. – Reuters

Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said. – Reuters

France condemned Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s visit to the Al-Aqsa mosque compound on Tuesday, saying it was in violation of the historic status quo of the holy places in Jerusalem. – Reuters

Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir on Tuesday visited the Al-Aqsa mosque compound known to Jews as Temple Mount, and said Jews should be allowed to pray there, freshly challenging rules covering one of the most sensitive sites in the Middle East. – Reuters

Israeli forces killed an 18-year-old Palestinian man in dawn raids on Tuesday in the West Bank cities of Ramallah and Al-Bireh, Palestinian hospital sources said, as violence in the Israeli occupied territory simmers. – Reuters 

The Defense Ministry in partnership with the Tekuma Authority, the IDF, and the Hof Ashkelon Regional Council, on Tuesday announced a NIS 715 million pilot program to boost security in Gaza border communities. – Jerusalem Post

Amit Becher, the head of the Israel Bar Association, submitted a legal opinion to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, defending Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant amid discussions about potential arrest warrants against them.  – Ynet

The United States is set to unveil a new proposal for a cease-fire and hostage release deal at a summit in Doha on Thursday, marking what is being billed as a last-ditch effort to reach an agreement. – Ynet

Fauda-style undercover IDF soldiers disguised as beggars and vegetable sellers were key to Israel’s daring plot to assassinate the Hamas commander known as the ‘Master of Camouflage’ last month, the JC can reveal. – Jewish Chronicle

Bret Stephens writes: Bennett left the prime minister’s office vowing to stay away from politics for at least a decade. He left me with little doubt that he’s on the verge of getting back in, with the aim of toppling the ruling coalition through parliamentary maneuvers this year and going for elections. He pledged a thorough housecleaning that could help unite Israelis once again. – New York Times

Anat Guetta and Eliot Penn write: Israel is at war, and that brings unspeakable horrors. But investing in Israel fosters a strong, innovative economy, which leads to the recognition that the country is here to stay and has plenty to offer its neighbors. This was the conclusion of Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan when they made peace with the Jewish state. Israel is inching closer to a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia for the same reason. – Wall Street Journal

Andrew Fox writes: Hamas will fight for as long as its commanders remain in control. The IDF’s operational plan at this point is to force them to crack when they understand their own lives are in danger. The IDF has its boot on Hamas’ throat and will keep pressing until it quits […] The IDF is only midway through a gargantuan task. The job is far from finished, but it is making progress. At this point, the only thing that can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and ensure the survival of the Iranian-backed Palestinian terrorist group on Israel’s border, is Washington. – Tablet Magazine

Iran

The parallel escalations in the Middle East and in the Russian war with Ukraine are creating fresh challenges for the budding partnership between Iran and Russia, two nations that have grown increasingly close because of their shared hostility to the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

As recently as last month, U.S. intelligence officials warned that Iran aimed to stoke societal discord and undermine former president Donald Trump’s bid to regain the White House, a reprise of its online interference four years ago. Now the 2024 effort appears to have begun, with suspected hacking attempts targeting the Republican and Democratic presidential campaigns. But intelligence officials and disinformation experts remain unsure of Iran’s precise plans. – Washington Post

Iran is holding a military drill in the north of the country, Mehr news agency reported on Tuesday, with the region bracing for Tehran’s avowed retaliation against Israel over the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. – Reuters

The U.S. State Department said it is eyeing measures to clamp down on Iran’s oil exports amid rising worries about Tehran’s vow to take revenge against Israel for the killing of a top Hamas leader. – Politico

As Israel continues to brace itself under the threat of an imminent attack from Iran or its proxy forces, including Hamas and Hezbollah, security experts are sounding the alarm that Tehran has its sights set on Jordan as its next great “terror front.” – Fox News

Iran is reportedly advancing its secret nuclear weapons program, bringing it closer to the capability of building a nuclear bomb, according to an exclusive report citing Iranian officials published on Wednesday by Iran International. – Jerusalem Post

David Ignatius writes: The Iranian campaign inside the United States included other targets. According to the Justice Department, members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plotted to kidnap dissident activist Masih Alinejad in 2021 and recruited an Eastern European hit team of organized criminals to kill her in 2023 […]In this week when we’re watching a vulnerable Israel prepare for an attack, we should not forget that the United States has been a target zone for Iran, too. – Washington Post

Michael Milshtein writes: The October 7 model demands that Israel realize its profound misunderstanding of ideological non-Western parties who view eschatology, or the vision for the end of time, as a goal that should be achieved here and now, at all costs. Hamas demonstrated this approach 10 months ago, whereas Iran – who is much more powerful – is developing an obsession with it while consistently progressing toward weapons-grade nuclear capabilities. In the current state of affairs, Israel must recognize that Iran poses its key existential threat, and that it cannot be addressed properly while the defense establishment is exhausting its resources in wars of attrition in Gaza and Lebanon that cannot be won, and while relations with the parties that could serve as members of a regional and international coalition against Tehran – particularly the United States – are full of friction. – Ynet

Ron Ben-Yishai writes: Both Nasrallah and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would prefer to end the conflict with Israel, which has already achieved its objectives in northern Israel and could only entangle them in a regional war, including with the U.S. However, they cannot abandon their promise of a retaliatory strike after committing to it publicly. They may adapt their actions to the new tactical and strategic circumstances, including the upcoming talks on the cease-fire and hostage release. The Biden administration is interested in a cease-fire and prefers to avoid American casualties, especially ahead of the elections in November. However, the U.S. will not hesitate to use its amassed power in the region if Iran and Hezbollah attempt to harm its vital interests. – Ynet

Jason M. Brodsky writes: With the news that Javad Zarif has resigned his post as vice president for strategic affairs only days after Pezeshkian appointed him, the new government already is facing not only a foreign relations but also a personnel crisis. Zarif hinted at constraints in appointments, and Iranian media reported he could not obtain the requisite security clearances. Some supporters of Pezeshkian have also expressed disappointment with his team. In the end, the new administration will be significantly handcuffed. – Middle East Institute 

Russia & Ukraine

Russia is withdrawing some of its military forces from Ukraine to respond to a Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory, U.S. officials said, the first sign that Kyiv’s incursion is forcing Moscow to rejigger its invasion force. – Wall Street Journal

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his top military commander boasted Tuesday of continued success in Ukraine’s surprise incursion into western Russia, claiming further territorial gains and the capture of Russian forces who Zelensky said could be exchanged for Ukrainian prisoners of war. – Washington Post

Ukraine pounded Russian regions with missiles and drones on Wednesday as Kyiv said it was advancing deeper in the biggest foreign incursion into Russia for decades, which the White House said posed a “real dilemma” for President Vladimir Putin. – Reuters

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said late on Tuesday that evidence continues to indicate that Monday’s fire at the Russia-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine did not start at the base of the cooling tower or by a foreign object. – Reuters

Russian shelling killed at least one civilian and injured two more in Ukraine’s Sumy region, the local administration said, as Kyiv troops proceed with their major cross-border assault in Russia’s adjacent Kursk region. – Reuters

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Tuesday that Russia needs to be forced to participate in a summit on peace as it would not do so willingly. – Reuters

Russia criticized Western allies of Ukraine at the United Nations on Tuesday for not condemning Kyiv’s incursion into the Russian region of Kursk, accusing Ukrainian forces of killing civilians and questioning the goals of the cross-border assault. – Reuters

Russia launched 38 attack drones and two Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Ukraine overnight, Ukraine’s air force said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Russian forces stepped up their attacks on the Pokrovsk front in eastern Ukraine over the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday, reporting the largest number of battles in the area in a single day in a week. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin told visiting Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday that Moscow was pained by the plight of his people and backed their aspiration to create a fully fledged state. – Reuters

Russia said Tuesday that its forces checked an effort by Ukrainian troops to expand a stunning weeklong incursion into the Kursk region, as a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Kyiv has no intention of occupying Russian territory. – Associated Press

Ukraine on Wednesday further pressed its surprise offensive in Russian territory and bombarded the neighboring border region of Belgorod, where the governor has declared a state of emergency. – Agence France-Presse

Russia has trained its naval forces to strike NATO targets in Europe, including using nuclear-capable missiles, in preparation for a possible conflict with the alliance, according to a new report. – Newsweek

Vladimir Putin has appointed Aleksey Dyumin, a former Kremlin agent, to take charge of defense in the Kursk region, seemingly replacing his army chief Valery Gerasimov’s duties in the area, according to an official and multiple Russian pro-war military bloggers. – Newsweek

The Ukrainian security service (SBU) is warning of a new Kremlin disinformation campaign related to Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russian territory. According to the SBU’s statement, Russia is spreading fake news and purported information leaks about Ukraine’s military activities in Russia’s Kursk region, accusing Ukrainian soldiers of war crimes. – The Record

Kseniya Kirillova writes: At the same time, it may be assumed that the fight against corruption, at least in its initial stages, will fail to deliver significant benefits but will even slow down certain processes in the Russian Army that were built exclusively on the basis of personal gain, with the beneficiaries of illicit payments losing their selfish motivation. At the same time, American analyst Michael Kaufman believes there is still a risk that Moscow will take Chasov Yar and Pokrovsk, which would seriously complicate the situation for the Ukrainian Army. Russia’s military faces problems, for sure, but so too does Ukraine’s. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Middle East & North Africa

The U.S. is sending top officials to the Middle East as it presses for a fresh round of talks between Israel and Hamas this week in a last-ditch bid to reach a cease-fire deal that President Biden says is “getting harder.” – Wall Street Journal

Eight U.S. service members were injured in a drone attack on a base in Syria last week, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, its first report of specific casualty figures in the incident. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has postponed his trip to the Middle East, delaying his planned Tuesday departure, Axios reported ahead of planned Gaza ceasefire talks this week. – Reuters

Meta Platforms said on Tuesday that it welcomed Turkey’s reopening of access to its Instagram social media platform and that it continues to talk to Turkish authorities about content and accounts that violate its policies. – Reuters

Two crude oil tanker ships reported coming under attack in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, although neither reported damage, maritime security agencies said. – Reuters

Two Hezbollah members were killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, hours after the IDF shot down two drones in the north as the region continues to brace for an expected Hezbollah retaliation against Israel. – Times of Israel

Korean Peninsula

North Korea has warned that American actions have forced it to “bolster” its nuclear arsenal, and put its allies at risk of a retaliatory attack by the cornered regime. – Newsweek

South Korea believes “trash balloons” sent by North Korea may be to blame for a fire that broke out near the inter-Korean border, raising concerns over the potential dangers of Pyongyang’s latest provocation. – Newsweek

After a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in June at which the international pariahs discussed mutual cooperation, Moscow has delivered a gift to Pyongyang. – Politico

China

China and Russia have pressed an informal political and economic alliance against the West. Now they are stepping up the cooperation between their militaries with increasingly provocative joint war games. – New York Times

The Philippines said on Tuesday an arrangement with China to avoid confrontations during resupply missions to troops at a disputed shoal may be subject to future review, days after their latest flare-up elsewhere over the South China Sea. – Reuters

Joseph Bosco writes: President Biden seems to have decided that the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity on defending Taiwan has not dissuaded China from planning to attack Taiwan. He has now stated on four occasions that the U.S. will intervene militarily. But Beijing has reason to doubt that those ad hoc remarks from the 81-year-old leader actually reflect considered U.S. policy. Biden’s administration has a few months left to move the policy in a clear and unambiguous direction. Had Putin believed America would directly defend Ukraine, as it promised to do in the Budapest Memorandum, Europe could have avoided another war. Xi Jinping must be made to understand the consequences of fresh aggression in the Indo-Pacific. – The Hill

Jude Blanchette writes: All of this has extraordinary salience for China’s own designs on Taiwan. Russia’s war on Ukraine offers general lessons about the complexities of modern warfare, the possibilities for an international response to a purportedly regional dispute, and the costs of a protracted military conflict. What Xi is learning from this crisis remains inscrutable. But Chinese analysts’ views offer a window into the possible lessons the Chinese government is drawing from Putin’s war. Their interpretations are varied and individual. After watching two years of war in Ukraine, however, many have concluded that the West has no stomach for conflict and will grow tired of supporting democracies facing an invading force if the economic costs are high. This conclusion is often overstated and probably underestimates American resolve. But the very fact that they have drawn it suggests that the Taiwan Strait—and the world at large—may be heading in a still more dangerous direction. – Foreign Affairs

South Asia

Former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina called on Tuesday for action against those involved in “killings and vandalism” in the country last month, her first comments since violent protests forced her to flee to India. – Reuters

Suspected militants hurled hand grenades at a house and a store selling Pakistani national flags in the restive southwestern Baluchistan province on Tuesday, killing three people and wounding six others ahead of Pakistan’s 77th independence day. – Associated Press

It’s been three years since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. They have transitioned from insurgency to authority, imposed their interpretation of Islamic law and sought to reinforce their claim to legitimacy. – Associated Press

Pakistani and Afghan Taliban forces traded cross-border fire near a key northwestern crossing, killing a woman and two children on the Afghan side of the border, officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Rupa Subramanya writes:  But the targeting of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority has not received anything like the attention it deserves. If not for X, the full extent of the violence might never have come to light. The mainstream media’s coverage of the violence against Hindus has been scant and dismissive […] The takeaway—painfully obvious to Hindus in Bangladesh—is that political violence is treated differently depending on the victims in question. And in this case, with Muslims committing violence against Hindus, the world has met terrifying scenes with a shrug. – The Free Press

Asia

Japan is set to get a new leader this fall after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Wednesday he wouldn’t seek to stay in office. – Wall Street Journal

Vietnam’s government has been carrying out its most intense crackdown on critics in decades, jailing droves of activists, lawyers and journalists and driving even more into exile, according to human rights groups and security analysts. – Washington Post

Thailand’s Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from office on Wednesday, throwing the country into fresh turmoil and creating deeper uncertainty about the political future of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy. – New York Times

The remote Pacific Island nation of Kiribati holds a national election on Wednesday at which major issues for voters are the government’s close ties to China and a softer stance on global climate advocacy, competing with cost of living pressures. – Reuters

The Chinese military on Friday flew a new electronic warfare drone near Japanese islands in the contested East China Sea as Beijing continues to expand its air force’s activities in the region. – Newsweek

Gearoid Reidy writes: With over a month to go, it’s entirely possible that rather than air dirty laundry in public, the party will coalesce around a mainstream candidate: Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, perhaps, or policy heavyweight Toshimitsu Motegi. But potential challengers should take a tip from Kishida, known to be a voracious reader. One of the prime minister’s favorite books is reportedly Crime & Punishment. Dostoyevsky writes that “power is only vouchsafed to the man who dares to stoop and pick it up… one has only to dare.” – Bloomberg

Europe

British counterterrorism police charged seven people with violent disorder on Tuesday, after a group of pro-Palestinian demonstrators forced their way into a building owned by an Israeli defense firm in southwest England. – New York Times

British authorities have now arrested more than 1,000 people following days of rioting involving violence, arson and looting as well as racist attacks targeting Muslims and migrants, a national policing body said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe expressed optimism about the prospects for a major reset in UK-EU ties, even as Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, stresses he has no plans to reverse the main choices of Brexit. – Bloomberg

Shaun Sacks writes: Norway’s current approach, which claims neutrality, openly supports one side. It advocates for development while ignoring corruption; speaks of peace but funds extremism; and supports NGOs that reject Israel’s right to exist while claiming to back a two-state solution. This is contradictory and harmful. If Norway genuinely seeks peace in the Middle East, it must align its actions with its stated goals, rather than funding organizations that work against the principles it claims to uphold. – Jerusalem Post

Africa

The Tanzanian police said on Tuesday they had arrested more than 500 people, including top opposition leaders, as they planned to attend a youth rally, a stunning development in the East African nation where a pathbreaking female president had once promised to restore political freedoms. – New York Times

The United States is initiating new peace talks on Wednesday that are aimed at stopping Sudan’s catastrophic civil war, with this push for dialogue driven by growing alarm that the conflict is sending the country deeper into a famine that experts warn could become the world’s worst in decades. – New York Times

A Ugandan court on Tuesday found a commander in the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), Thomas Kwoyelo, guilty of dozens of war crimes, the first time a senior member of the group has been tried by Uganda’s judiciary. – Reuters

A second round of Turkish-mediated talks between Somalia and Ethiopia over a port deal Addis Ababa signed with the breakaway Somaliland region ended without a deal on Tuesday, but Turkey and ministers from both countries sounded upbeat on progress. – Reuters

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) urged countries to step up their donations in response to the world’s largest displacement crisis in Sudan, warning on Tuesday that inaction could cost tens of thousands of lives. – Reuters

The Americas

A U.N. panel of electoral experts said in a new report that Venezuela’s national electoral authority fell short of following through on basic “transparency and integrity measures that are essential to holding credible elections.” – Washington Post

At least five Haitian children have been killed or injured a week so far in 2024, charity Save the Children said on Tuesday, urging the United Nations and security forces to do more to protect kids from crossfire and gang violence. – Reuters

More than two weeks after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro claimed reelection victory, the U.S. and other Western countries are showing little sign of swift tough action over what many of them have condemned as voting fraud. – Reuters

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said on Tuesday that President Nicolas Maduro had “entrenched himself” with the nation’s top military leaders in order to stay in power after last month’s disputed election. – Reuters

Guatemala’s police arrested a member of President Bernardo Arévalo’s administration Tuesday for alleged campaign finance violations amid a months-long pursuit of his political party by federal prosecutors. – Associated Press

Colombia’s defense ministry on Monday said 66 soldiers who had been “kidnapped” by villagers in the south of the country were released unharmed and will continue to carry out operations against rebel groups in the province of Guaviare. – Associated Press

Months after the U.S. extended a series of olive branches to Cuba, Washington and Havana are saying the other needs to do more before additional progress can be made on repairing diplomatic ties. – Politico

United States

Hunter Biden sought assistance from the U.S. government for a potentially lucrative energy project in Italy while his father was vice president, according to newly released records and interviews. – New York Times

A U.S. Army intelligence analyst on Tuesday pleaded guilty to charges of conspiring to sell military secrets to China, the Department of Justice said. – Reuters

San Francisco prosecutors have charged 26 protesters who blocked the Golden Gate Bridge for hours in April to demand a cease-fire in Gaza. – Associated Press

Democratic US presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s campaign said Tuesday it had been targeted by foreign hackers, days after rival Donald Trump’s campaign suggested that it had been hacked by Iran. – Agence France-Presse

 

Cybersecurity

The healthcare industry’s vulnerability to cyberattacks was vividly demonstrated earlier this year. Change Healthcare, a UnitedHealth Group unit that operates the largest U.S. clearinghouse for insurance billing and payments, shut down its services following a cyberattack in February. The outage threw the healthcare sector into crisis. – Wall Street Journal 

National-security authorities have warned for years that today’s encryption will become vulnerable to hackers when quantum computers are widely available. Companies can now start to integrate new cryptographic algorithms into their products to protect them from future hacks. – Wall Street Journal

The globally active criminal ransomware group Radar/Dispossessor, which targeted at least dozens of companies in sectors including healthcare and transport, has been taken down, authorities in the United States and Germany said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Dozens of systems used by government bodies and IT companies in Russia have reportedly become the targets of Chinese hackers. – Newsweek

About $60 million was stolen from one of the leading suppliers of carbon products after an employee was tricked into making several wire transfers to cybercriminals. – The Record

A Belarusian-Ukrainian national dubbed “one of the world’s most prolific Russian-speaking cybercrime actors” by the British National Crime Agency (NCA) has been arrested in an international operation and extradited to the U.S. – The Record

This morning the National Institute of Standards & Technology officially released the long-awaited final versions of three new post-quantum encryption algorithms, with additional, more specialized algorithms on the way. They’re all designed to defend against future hacks carried out by quantum computers, an unproven but rapidly developing threat that could quickly crack the kinds of encryption used almost universally today, including those used in the most sensitive Pentagon systems. – Breaking Defense

Defense

Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics plan to build their own rocket motors, seeking to tackle a lingering shortage that has affected Ukraine’s defenses and U.S. efforts to deter China. – Wall Street Journal

Charles Galbreath and Jennifer Reeves write: Ignoring the tenets of joint operations leads to a waste of taxpayer dollars and risks unnecessarily complicating combatant command functions. The Secretary of Defense should intervene by directing the Army to halt duplication of Space Force functions, and taking budget action to eliminate any Army funding for functions that are performed by the Space Force — the service created specifically to execute space operations. – Breaking Defense

Moyuru Tanaka writes: The possibility of a similar serious situation occurring in the Indo-Pacific region in the future cannot be ruled out. Japan will need to build a mutually beneficial strategic relationship with the United States and other allies and partners to address these challenges. Cooperation will be essential. It is necessary to develop a strong and resilient defense industrial base, including in the shipbuilding industry, to support military readiness and ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

James H. Armstead writes: But needs must. Russia is not going to end its imperial aggression, and China will not lightly surrender its dependent ally that so satisfyingly ties up Western resources and energy. The Kremlin and its allies directly threaten our Eastern and Central European allies. It’s time to sit down with our friends and find new ways. We need a stronger, more robust Europe to reinvigorate NATO so that it can take more of the load. Perhaps the alliance will re-cast itself to keep the Russians out, the Germans up and the Americans involved. That would be a good outcome. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Long War

A military judge overseeing the cases against Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two others accused of plotting the 9/11 attacks will examine if it was legal for Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to rescind plea agreements that would have spared them the death penalty, a move that drew praise among some victims’ families and blowback from critics of the Pentagon’s oft-maligned judicial proceedings at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. – Washington Post

Chancellor Karl Nehammer said on Tuesday he would introduce steps to bolster Austria’s counter-terrorism capacity after authorities last week foiled a suspected ISIS-inspired plot against a concert due to be held by Taylor Swift in Vienna. – Reuters

Tom Mockaitis writes: “If the Vienna plot were an isolated incident and the authorities were confident the threat had been neutralized, the concerts would not have been canceled. The Middle East conflict and the Olympics have increased the threat level in Europe. Prejudice leads to threats and attacks which encourage more prejudice. Until that cycle is broken, ISIS will have no shortage of recruits.” – The Hill