Fdd's overnight brief

Syria

Nearly 60 people were killed after clashes ensued between Assad loyalists and rebels in northwest Syria on Tuesday, according to Al Arabiya. – Jerusalem Post

War crimes in Syria and other conflict zones show that the Geneva Conventions are no longer deterring governments and armed groups from mass killing, rape and torture, the head of the International Committee of the Red Cross warned on Tuesday. – The National

Gönül Tol and Joseph Votel write: For any deal in northeastern Syria to work, it has to provide a sustainable solution to U.S. and Turkish security interests and address Kurdish concerns. The current agreement fails on all counts. – Middle East Institute

Arabian Peninsula

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged on Tuesday Tehran’s continued support for Yemen’s Houthi movement and called for dialogue among Yemenis to safeguard the war-shattered nation’s territorial integrity. – Reuters

Millions of haj pilgrims began heading back to Mecca for final prayers on Tuesday as the world’s largest annual gathering of Muslims wound down without incident despite the logistical challenges and escalating regional tensions. – Reuters

In an August 1, 2019 article in the London-based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat daily, Saudi journalist Mishal Al-Sudairy considered why fundamentalist Arabs and Muslims accuse Western countries of racism even though they are home to millions of Arabs and Muslims who enjoy full human rights and even hold high-level positions such as government minister and mayor. While he agreed that the West was involved in wars and had committed serious crimes, he added that it had mended its ways and continues to lead humanity on the road to progress, democracy, and human rights.  – Middle East Media Research Institute

Simon Henderson writes: At one time, articles described MBZ as MbS’s mentor, or their relationship as a “bromance,” but the Saudi prince increasingly appears to be immune from accepting advice and guidance. Yemen probably still is a sideshow in the drama of the Middle East, but even before the latest events the UAE had started to draw down on its involvement in getting rid of the Houthi regime in Sana. MbZ is judged to be satisfied with a separate South Yemen emerging. Whether this is part of MbS’s vision, or whether he is prepared to accept new realities, is the immediate question.  – The Hill

Middle East & North Africa

A fictional caper about an antiquities heist set in an ancient Jordanian city has stirred widespread outrage over the film’s portrayal of historical Jewish ties to Jordan, shining a light on the tenuous peace with neighboring Israel and prompting the government to suspend the movie’s production. – Associated Press

Dozens of House Democrats are urging President Donald Trump to stop detaining and deporting Iraqi nationals after the death of a Michigan man sent to the Middle Eastern country. – Politico

Moving forward rapidly, Bahrain has signed a letter of offer and acceptance with the U.S. government to buy the Patriot air-and-missile defense system, triggering contract negotiations for the Foreign Military Sale between the U.S. and Patriot-maker Raytheon, according to a company statement. Bahrain is the newest and seventeenth customer of Patriot worldwide to include the United States. – Defense News

Alex Walsh and Jana Treffler write: Considering the growing value of German security support globally, Tunisia offers important lessons for the effective promulgation of the SSR Strategy both in the Tunisian case and in the region as a whole. This article addresses two overarching questions: First, to what extent do Germany’s security assistance programs in Tunisia conform to the guiding principles it has established? And second, what does this mean for making Germany’s new SSR Strategy both principled and effective? – Middle East Institute

Hanin Ghaddar writes: If sanctions are implemented as part of a comprehensive U.S. policy aimed at exploring ways to restore political balance in Lebanon, then Hezbollah’s alliances and financial support base may truly be shaken. The best place to start is by exerting more pressure on Bassil’s partnership with Hezbollah, and not hesitating to levy sanctions when diplomatic attempts fall short. – Washington Institute

Assaf Orion writes: Foreign officials may therefore wish to consider whether the recent U.S. designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a worthwhile model for portions of Lebanon’s military. There is already sufficient evidence to sanction LAF Military Intelligence and certain individual officers for their affiliation with Hezbollah. At the very least, international support for the LAF should refocus on border security and counterterrorism, and aid should be conditioned on performance and personnel vetting. – Washington Institute

China

The Trump administration abruptly suspended plans to impose new tariffs on about $156 billion in goods from China, saying the move was driven by concerns about the impact an escalating trade fight would have on businesses and consumers ahead of the holiday shopping season. – Wall Street Journal

Negative attitudes toward China are hardening among Americans, who increasingly see Beijing as an economic and military adversary, according to new research that shows opinions souring as the trade war between the two countries intensifies. – Wall Street Journal

Foreign companies that have been labeling Hong Kong as a separate entity from China were quick to apologize this week to angry Chinese buyers, fearful of losing favor in the world’s second-biggest consumer market. – Wall Street Journal

Asian stocks joined a global equities surge on Wednesday, after Washington delayed tariffs on some Chinese imports and gave much-needed relief for markets gripped by political and economic turmoil. – Reuters

Chinese officials are sticking to their plan to visit Washington in September for face-to-face trade meetings, people familiar with the matter said, signaling that talks remain on track for now despite an abrupt escalation in tariff threats this month. – Bloomberg

Editorial: The White House announced it will postpone part of its recently announced third round of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods until Dec. 15, and stocks rallied while bond yields rose. All of this looks like a tactical White House retreat more than a strategic shift, and bloodshed in Hong Kong could blow everything up (see nearby). But at least the reprieve offers more time to avoid a trade meltdown. – Wall Street Journal

John Authers writes: Could it be that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping managed the almost-impossible, with each surviving a game of chicken like the one portrayed in “Rebel Without A Cause” […]It looks like Trump has swerved first, avoiding what might have been a worse fate had he “won” and imposed tariffs as scheduled. He is implicitly admitting — correctly — that it is Americans who would bear the burden of paying these new tariffs and not the Chinese. – Bloomberg

Shuli Ren writes: Washington likes to think it still wields influence in the geopolitical domain, but it’s increasingly seen as indifferent to the wider world. As easy money starts flowing again and Trump shifts policies, the U.S. is losing key emerging markets allies. Back in April, in its second Belt and Road Forum, President Xi sounded chastened about his China Dream ambitions to make the country great again. But he may soon be feeling triumphant. – Bloomberg

Desmond Lachman writes: Judging by China’s immediate retaliation to the U.S. import tariff threat, it would appear that China has no intention of caving in to United States trade policy demands. It would seem that China knows the costs that a US-China trade war can inflict on both the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market, and it also knows that there are political limits to how much pain the U.S. can bear. Sadly, it is far from clear that the Trump administration has a grasp on how costly to the U.S. public its China tariffs might be. It is also not clear that it understands the dangers of the tariff fire with which it is playing. – The Hill

Asia

A woman was killed and another woman wounded when a man went on a stabbing spree in the heart of Sydney, sending Australia’s largest city into lockdown before three men armed only with a chair and a milk crate subdued him. […]Police said it was unclear what motivated the attack, which raised fears of a repeat of a terrorist attack in the same Sydney district in 2014. – Wall Street Journal

The prison authorities in New Zealand acknowledged on Wednesday that they had mistakenly allowed the man charged in the Christchurch mosque attacks to send at least one letter from jail calling for racial violence. – New York Times

China’s leaders were battered by a typhoon over the weekend during their annual Communist Party retreat at Beidaihe, a coastal resort where senior officials have gathered each August for more than six decades. – Washington Post

Police clashed with protesters thronging Hong Kong’s airport late Tuesday, with violence flaring at the end of a second straight day of pro-democracy demonstrators overwhelming one of the world’s busiest travel hubs. – Wall Street Journal

China’s Hong Kong Liaison office said on Wednesday that anti government protesters were no different to “terrorists”, as U.S. President Donald Trump said Chinese troops were moving to the border with Hong Kong and urged calm. – Reuters

President Trump on Tuesday said that he’s hopeful that escalating clashes between anti-government protesters and police forces in Hong Kong can be resolved, but offered no direct warning to China amid signs that Beijing is preparing to crack down on demonstrators. – The Hill

China’s foreign ministry on Tuesday told the United States to stay out of its internal affairs after some U.S. lawmakers, including House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, condemned what they called acts of violence by police against protesters in Hong Kong. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, citing U.S. intelligence, said China’s government was moving troops to its border with Hong Kong and he urged calm as clashes continued between protesters and authorities in the former British colony. – Reuters

Chinese officials are denying two U.S. warships port visits to Hong Kong amidst ongoing protests against the government in Beijing. – USNI News

Editorial: The stakes are rising in Hong Kong, as clashes between pro-democracy protesters and the local government backed by China are escalating. The damage could be global if President Xi Jinping orders a bloody crackdown, and President Trump should be warning the Chinese President not to do it. This is a case when China’s President needs blunt candor, not familiar Trumpian flattery. – Wall Street Journal

Europe

As the country girds for Parliament’s return in September, only one thing seems certain: The confused and chaotic Brexit process promises to plunge Britain into new unknowns as an Oct. 31 deadline for leaving the European Union bears down. – New York TImes

Parliament will block a no-deal Brexit if unelected people behind Prime Minister Boris Johnson try to wrench Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31 without agreement, former finance minister Philip Hammond said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Danish police said on Wednesday they had arrested a 22-year old Swedish man and issued an international warrant for a 23-year old Swede, both suspected of being behind an explosion outside the Danish Tax Agency’s office in Copenhagen last week. – Reuters

Alphabet Inc’s Google unit, Facebook Inc and Amazon.com Inc are among the companies that will testify Monday at a U.S. government hearing on the French government’s digital services tax. – Reuters

Britain and the United States are discussing a partial trade accord that could take effect on Nov. 1, the day after Britain is due to leave the European Union, a senior Trump administration official said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Holocaust denier and blogger Alison Chabloz says she has been banned from France, JTA reported on Tuesday. – Arutz Sheva

The Americas

Top military leaders have repeatedly declared their allegiance to the Maduro administration. But over the past two years, as the oil-rich economy crumbled and a majority of Venezuelans were left without sufficient food and medicine, factions within the security forces have staged at least five attempts to overthrow or assassinate the president. – New York Times

A Guatemalan immigration agreement signed with the Trump administration won’t work because the Central American nation does not have the resources, the country’s new president-elect says. – Associated Press

Charles Larratt-Smith writes: Last week, the Trump administration introduced tougher sanctions against Maduro and his key allies, aiming to weaken the regime. These sanctions will make it harder for foreign companies to continue to do business in Venezuela and will further block the ruling coalition from accessing U.S. debt and equity markets. But sanctions are unlikely to remove Maduro from power. Here’s why. – Washington Post

Andres Martinez-Fernandez writes: The authoritarian regime of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela has kept its hold on power despite a dramatic economic and political crisis. Its tenacity has confounded observers. Policymakers pressing for a political transition in Venezuela have targeted various support structures that sustain the Maduro regime, including corrupt cronies, military officials, and Cuban advisors. However, lawmakers in the United States and in the countries neighboring Venezuela must do more to confront transnational criminal and guerrilla organizations. These groups’ support of the Maduro regime is an important barrier to political change in Venezuela. – Real Clear World

Michael Rubin writes: Inaccurate and imprecise State Department warnings are not limited to Somalia. The State Department’s Iraq warning neither acknowledges Iraqi Kurdistan’s decades-long security nor the dramatic drop in Baghdad violence. […]Overly broad travel warnings matter. They undercut diplomacy and diminish soft power when America needs it most. They inflate insurance costs and dissuade investment. In effect, the State Department’s embrace of travel warning inaccuracy risks ceding entire countries to Russian, Chinese, Turkish, or Iranian influence as their businessmen sink roots while their American counterparts are absent. – The Hill