Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel put its military on high alert and the Pentagon said it is sending a guided-missile submarine to the region and speeding up the arrival of a second aircraft carrier, amid heightened concerns about a possible Iranian and Hezbollah response to the killing of militant leaders in Tehran and Beirut. – Wall Street Journal

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu slammed his defense minister on Monday, exposing deep rifts within the Israeli government as the Middle East entered a high-wire week, suspended between the prospect of a wider regional conflict and intensive diplomatic efforts to prevent one. – New York Times

Israel is monitoring developments in Iran regarding a threatened strike against Israel, but the military has not changed its precautionary guidelines to the public, the Israeli military spokesperson said on Monday. – Reuters

The U.S. expects Gaza peace talks to move forward as planned, the State Department said on Monday, adding it believes a ceasefire deal remains possible even after Hamas cast doubt on whether it would participate in a Thursday meeting called by mediators. – Reuters

One Israeli male hostage was killed by his guard and two women captives were seriously wounded in two separate incidents in Gaza, the spokesperson for Hamas’ armed al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Ubaida, said on Monday. – Reuters

The US believes an Iranian attack against Israel has grown even more likely and may come as soon as this week, officials said, as allied leaders sought to head off all-out war and the Pentagon deployed more forces to the region. – Bloomberg

New details have been published about the resolution proposal that the Palestinian Authority (PA) intends to promote against Israel at next month’s United Nations General Assembly. – Artuz Sheva

Canada has revoked the charitable status of two Jewish nonprofits that direct donations to Israel, including the Jewish National Fund. – Artuz Sheva

A courier with the military wing of Hamas passed on information to the IDF that helped in the elimination of Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ military wing, Al-Arabiya reported on Monday. Arutz Sheva

Israel will soon begin to manufacture heavy bombs for the air force to overcome supply delays and establish independence in weapons development. – Artuz Sheva

Editorial: Israelis have a clearer idea of what works in this bad neighborhood. “Give us the tools faster, and we’ll finish the job faster,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Congress in July, referring to Hamas. But how about speeding up munitions and transferring bunker-busting bombs as well? That ordnance, which can put Iran’s nuclear facilities at risk, would get Tehran’s attention as much as the other assets steaming to the region. Iran understands Western strength and resolve, and both are essential to any successful diplomacy. – Wall Street Journal

Seth Mandel writes: Any innocent life lost is a tragedy. And now that we know it was a command center, we also know Hamas is to blame for their deaths. Obviously, it would be much better if the media would report accurate information. But once you understand how these pieces of propaganda are put together, you can disassemble them yourself and construct the reality. – Commentary Magazine

Michael Doran writes: Iran attacked Israel with the largest ballistic missile barrage ever launched by any country against another. And for the first time, Tehran mobilized all elements of its “Resistance Axis” in a coordinated campaign. There is a clear connection between the elements on this list of firsts. Israel’s detractors and its mortal enemies feel they can act with impunity, because Biden has signaled clearly that the United States cares as much about weakening the Israeli right wing as it does with defeating Israel’s foes. – Tablet Magazine 

Russia & Ukraine

For now, Russia is struggling to contain Ukrainian advances. But some Ukrainian soldiers waiting to join the battle from Sumy, the Ukrainian regional capital on the border, said they had been pulled from already threadbare units on the eastern front in Ukraine, suggesting Kyiv was already facing challenges finding fresh troops to maintain momentum. – Wall Street Journal

Nearly a week into a stunning Ukrainian incursion into western Russia, the acting governor of the Kursk region told President Vladimir Putin and other security officials Monday that the situation is “complicated,” with Kyiv’s forces having advanced 7½ miles into the country and controlling more than two dozen villages. – Washington Post

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia lashed out at the West over Ukraine’s weeklong incursion into Russian territory, in a tense televised meeting with his top officials on Monday, a sign of how the surprise attack has unsettled the Kremlin. – New York Times

Ukraine launched fresh drone attacks on Russia’s border region of Kursk on Tuesday, a day after President Vladimir Putin lashed out at the West for supporting Kyiv’s surprise incursion into Russian territory. – Reuters

Ukraine detained one of its four deputy energy ministers and three other suspects as they were caught “red-handed” receiving a tranche of a $500,000 bribe, state prosecutors and anti-graft police said on Monday. – Reuters

Ukraine said on Monday it had not seen any sign of a buildup of Belarusian forces near their border, contradicting a statement from Minsk that it had sent more troops to the area. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks on Tuesday with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is visiting Russia, state news agency TASS reported. – Reuters

The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine reported normal radiation levels following a fire and explosions, according to the global nuclear watchdog. – Bloomberg

President Zelensky for the first time has acknowledged that his troops invaded Russia. He said the operation is designed “to restore justice.” – New York Sun

A suspected Russian spy was arrested by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) in the Donetsk oblast for allegedly gathering intelligence about Ukrainian military movements. – Newsweek

Anastasia Edel writes: Will Europe stand with America in its looming geopolitical standoff with China, now reinforced by the natural resources that Mr. Putin has mortgaged to President Xi? Will the Middle East be as obliging in matters of oil prices? Time will tell just how severe the security and economic consequences will be, but one thing is already clear. A small war far away from America’s borders has reshaped our world — and made America’s place in it smaller. – New York Times

Marc Champion writes: Zelenskiy went on to spell out that he was talking about long-range missiles to hit Russian launch sites and logistics chains, and urged allies to lift their remaining restrictions. I’ve yet to hear a convincing argument as to why he’s wrong to make that request, or why it shouldn’t be granted. – Bloomberg

Alexander J. Motyl writes: When the war ends and Putin and his comrades are eventually behind bars, average Russians will have to examine just what made them so pliable, so open to exploitation by a criminal. But the West will have to ask just why it didn’t — and doesn’t? — care with whom it does business, as long as the price is right. – The Hill

Turkey

The United States is asking Turkey and other allies that have ties with Iran to persuade it to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey said. – Reuters

Turkey is fully committed to its responsibilities to NATO, its defence minister told Reuters, amid concern amongst some Western allies that Ankara may be tilting away from the West. – Reuters

Turkey’s military conducted airstrikes in northern Iraq and “neutralised” 17 members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the defence ministry said on Monday. – Reuters

Turkey and Syria could meet at the ministerial level as part of efforts to normalise ties if suitable conditions are created, Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters in an interview. – Reuters

Turkey hosted a second round of talks on Monday between east African neighbors Ethiopia and Somalia to try and resolve a dispute over Ethiopia’s deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland, officials said. – Associated Press

Middle East & North Africa

Concerns over a wider conflict in the Middle East have prompted international airlines to suspend flights to the region or to avoid affected air space. – Reuters

A ship’s captain reported an explosion in the vicinity of the vessel located about 63 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s Hodeidah, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The United States confirmed Monday it would resume sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, as concerns over human rights in the kingdom’s Yemen war give way to US hopes that Riyadh will help resolve the conflict in Gaza, and again assist in repelling an Iranian attack on Israel. – Agence France-Presse

China

A group of senior Biden administration officials is traveling to Shanghai this week for a round of high-level meetings intended to keep the economic relationship between the United States and China on stable footing amid mounting trade tensions between the two countries. – New York Times

Vietnam’s top leader To Lam will visit China next week in his first foreign trip since his appointment as general secretary of the ruling Communist Party earlier in August, three officials familiar with the matter told Reuters. – Reuters

The Philippine Navy said on Tuesday last week’s actions by the Chinese air force over the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea were “coercive, aggressive and deceptive”. – Reuters

Hong Kong’s top court on Monday upheld the convictions of seven of Hong Kong’s most prominent pro-democracy activists over their roles in one of the biggest anti-government protests in 2019. – Associated Press

China sent an aircraft carrier group to the wider Western Pacific Ocean on Monday for the second time in a month, hot on the heels of the U.S. decision to redeployed two of its own “flat-tops” to the Middle East. – Newsweek

Minxin Pei writes: When implemented, the digital ID will do the party more harm than good. With less information about what’s happening in their society, China’s rulers will be flying blind and making more mistakes. Unfortunately, the party most likely sees its latest Orwellian scheme as a stroke of genius, blissfully unaware that paranoid dictatorships tend to embrace self-destructive policies in pursuit of absolute regime security. – Bloomberg

Jude Blanchette writes: After watching two years of war in Ukraine, however, many have concluded that the West has no stomach for conflict and will grow tired of supporting democracies facing an invading force if the economic costs are high. This conclusion is often overstated and probably underestimates American resolve. But the very fact that they have drawn it suggests that the Taiwan Strait—and the world at large—may be heading in a still more dangerous direction. – Foreign Affairs

Asia

Eight decades ago, when Japan’s kamikaze pilots were crashing their planes into American ships and its soldiers were dying from the Aleutian Islands to Guadalcanal, all were given the same promise: Upon death, their souls would be enshrined at Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine. – Wall Street Journal 

Singapore’s economic outlook seems brighter, as resilience in external demand and a recovery in the key electronics sector helps guard against headwinds elsewhere, the trade ministry said as it adjusted the city-state’s growth forecast for the year. – Wall Street Journal

A helicopter crashed into the roof of a Hilton DoubleTree hotel in northeastern Australia early Monday, killing the pilot and injuring two hotel guests, authorities said. – Washington Post

Myanmar authorities have released a Japanese man from detention, Japan’s foreign ministry confirmed on Tuesday, following reports in media of the release of a manager of supermarket giant Aeon’s local unit. – Reuters

A Thai court will this week decide if the Southeast Asian nation will continue business as usual or be tipped into a renewed period of political uncertainty when it assesses whether Srettha Thavisin should continue as prime minister. – Bloomberg

Singapore will start the trial against its former transport minister S. Iswaran next month, in the latest update to the biggest political scandal to hit the city-state. – Bloomberg

Laura Linderman writes: By leveraging diplomatic, economic, and security tools, the U.S. and its allies can play a crucial role in supporting Georgia’s democratic future. But this support must be coupled with a clear-eyed assessment of the challenges involved, and with a willingness to impose concrete consequences for democratic backsliding. Ultimately, it remains up to Georgians to seize this moment and chart a course towards a more stable, prosperous, and democratic future. Washington’s job is to give them the tools to do so. – American Foreign Policy Council

Africa

Not since the battle for Damascus, more than a decade ago in the Syrian Civil War, has a national capital city been the sustained front line in a major war. The fighting has destroyed large parts of what was once one of Africa’s most populous cities, home to an estimated nine million people and the ministries, banks and corporations that powered Sudan’s political life and economy. – Wall Street Journal

Kenya’s main aviation union said it would call a strike from next Monday over a proposed deal with an Indian company to develop the country’s biggest airport – industrial action that could cause major disruption in the east African travel hub. – Reuters

Zambia will reopen its border with Democratic Republic of Congo after sealing it at the weekend due to protests, blocking a key export route for the world’s second largest copper producer, the two countries said in a joint statement on Monday. – Reuters

After decades of seeking a bigger voice in the United Nations ‘ most powerful body, Africa “cannot wait any longer,” Sierra Leone’s president told the Security Council on Monday. – Associated Press

Two days before US-brokered talks aimed at ending Sudan’s civil war are due to get under way, it’s still unclear whether the army will participate, clouding the prospects of a truce being agreed. – Bloomberg

The US is providing South Sudan an extra $95 million in humanitarian assistance for 700,000 people in the African nation’s most food-insecure regions. – Bloomberg

Tanzanian authorities detained hundreds of opposition leaders and supporters ahead of a planned rally to mark International Youth Day, a crackdown they said was necessary to avert the risk of violence. – Bloomberg

United States

The United States had no role in ousting Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who recently quit her position and fled the South Asian nation, the White House said on Monday, calling allegations of U.S. interference “simply false.” – Reuters

A Muslim advocacy group filed a lawsuit on Monday against the FBI and leaders of other U.S. government agencies over what it called the discriminatory and racist placement of two Palestinian Americans on a watch list. – Reuters

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke on Monday to the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the UK to discuss de-escalating tensions in the Middle East and a ceasefire in Gaza, the White House said. – Reuters

Hundreds of lawyers from around the world called on the US to end the use of unilateral economic sanctions, saying the tool amounts to collective punishment of civilians and is illegal under international law. – Bloomberg

The Trump campaign’s Loudoun County, Virginia, office was burglarized by an unknown suspect. The Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office announced the burglary in a statement, showing security footage of a man robbing the office without any face covering. The robbery occurred at around 9 p.m. on Sunday. – Washington Examiner

San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins charged 26 anti-Israel protesters for their role in blockading traffic along the Golden Gate Bridge. For more than four hours, drivers were trapped on the bridge, causing a serious safety hazard. – The Hill

Daniel W. Drezner writes: Americans may never completely agree about what is and is not a national security issue. But a process that lets policymakers agree on how to disagree would allow for an improved national security discourse—and, ideally, improved national security. – Foreign Affairs

Defense

Last summer when the Pentagon released its plan to fix its sprawling foreign military sales system, it also issued a warning. Sasha Baker, then a top policy official and one of the co-chairs of the “tiger team” leading the effort, mentioned, pointedly, that they had tried this before. – Defense News

New military recruits will get baseline cognitive testing and training instructors will have to stand farther away when some weapons are being fired under new Pentagon policies aimed at reducing troops’ risk of brain injuries from blast exposure. – Military.com

As the Department of Defense is working to connect all the disparate data sets and sensors from each service, standardization will be a critical component to realizing the vision in the future. – DefenseScoop