Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

A first group of six Ukrainian pilots is not expected to complete training on the U.S.-made F-16 before next summer, senior Ukrainian government and military officials said, following a series of delays by Western partners in implementing an instruction program for the sophisticated fighter jet. – Washington Post 

The United States has committed more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. That includes more than $43 billion in military aid. That’s more than the United States distributes in aid to any other country. – Washington Post 

President Biden on Thursday asked Congress to approve $20.6 billion in additional funding for Ukraine, as that country’s military struggles to achieve a decisive victory in its counteroffensive against Russia. – Washington Post 

Ukraine has altered the military balance of power in the Black Sea in recent months, using sea drones to strike back at Russia’s more powerful navy and threaten Russian military supply lines and shipping lanes. – Wall Street Journal

Russia’s plans to launch its first lunar lander in nearly 50 years on Friday and become the first country to reach the south pole of the moon is a symbolic moment for a country anxious to prove it still has the technological capabilities befitting a great world power. – Wall Street Journal

A co-founder of Yandex, Russia’s biggest tech company, has become the second major Russian businessman under Western sanctions to publicly denounce President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine, even as other Russian billionaires remain silent. – Washington Post 

For nearly 18 months, Ukraine has stood against its Russian invaders — rallying support for its troops by embracing last year’s battlefield victories in the Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Those wins carried beleaguered Ukrainians through a winter of airstrikes on civilian infrastructure and a brutal and symbolic battle for Bakhmut, the eastern city that fell to the Russians in May. – Washington Post 

After Russia’s ruble hit a 16-month low against the U.S. dollar, raising fears of rising inflation, even one of President Vladimir V. Putin’s top cheerleaders in state media lashed out at the country’s financial authorities on Thursday over an exchange rate that he said was a subject of global mockery. – New York Times

Ukrainian authorities ordered a mandatory evacuation Thursday of nearly 12,000 civilians from 37 towns and villages in the eastern Kharkiv region, where Russian forces reportedly are making a concerted effort to punch through the front line. – Associated Press 

Ukraine announced a “humanitarian corridor” in the Black Sea on Thursday to release cargo ships trapped in its ports since the outbreak of war, a new test of Russia’s de facto blockade since Moscow abandoned a deal last month to let Kyiv export grain. – Reuters

Ukraine’s national anti-corruption agency added Bacardi Limited to its list of international war sponsors, citing the company’s continued business and tax payments in Russia. – The Hill

Some 200,000 people are thought to have been killed in fighting between Russia and Ukraine since February 24, 2022, when President Vladimir Putin opened the latest—and perhaps final—chapter of Moscow’s 30-year effort to hinder Kyiv’s westward drift and regenerate a neo-imperial sphere of influence. – Newsweek

Ukrainian special forces soldiers in Kyiv’s elite “Shaman” battalion are working inside Russian territory to take out some of Moscow’s senior commanders, according to a new report. “We have an increased number of targets, missions on specific people or targets, such as buildings where a general or somebody like that is located inside Russia,” a Ukrainian sergeant with the call-sign “Intelligent,” told London’s The Times. – Newsweek

The sensational deal between President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may have collapsed, amid reports that the mercenary fighters are leaving their bases in Belarus and heading to multiple different areas of Wagner activity. – Newsweek

Russian forces have lost 16 tanks and 13 armored personnel vehicles (APVs) in 24 hours, according to Ukraine’s military, as Kyiv pushes on with its counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine. – Newsweek

Russian troops fighting in Ukraine recorded a video appeal addressed to the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin, accusing a regional governor of stealing their wages. – Newsweek

The new Russian offensive in northeastern Ukraine is causing concern among military officials in Kyiv, as Moscow’s forces look to spoil the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive still raging in the south and east of the country. Former prisoners in “Storm-Z” units are said to be part of the Kremlin’s push. – Newsweek

Two civilians were killed in Ukrainian shelling of the Russian village of Chausy in the Bryansk region bordering Ukraine, the region’s governor said on Thursday, while a civilian was killed in a Ukrainian strike on the Russian-held town of Nova Kakhovka in southern Ukraine, according to Russian-appointed authorities. – Reuters

David A. Super writes: Putin’s only real hope is that the West will tire of the war and cut off aid to Ukraine. If we show patience, and do not ask the Ukrainians to wage a Russian-style public relations war, we can expect to see collapses of Russian logistics, Russian frontline defenses, and the Russian regime, in no particular order. Defeating Putin’s ugly aggression once and for all will be well worth it. – The Hill

Stephen Biddle writes: Calls for revolution and transformation have been commonplace in the defense debate in the generations after World War II. They have mostly not fared well in light of observed experience in that time. After a year and a half of war in Ukraine, there is no reason to think that this time they will be proved right. – Foreign Affairs

Liam Collins, Michael Kofman and John Spencer write: Yet while many of the Russian assumptions behind the invasion plan were fundamentally incorrect, the initial assault was not doomed to failure. A stubborn defense and counterattack by Ukrainian forces at Hostomel was decisive in scuttling Russian attempts to conduct a decapitation attack. Had the Russian operation at Hostomel gone differently, and Russian forces entered the capital in those early hours, it may have had a cascade effect on the course of the overall invasion. – War on the Rocks

Turkey

Turkey’s defense ministry said on Thursday that a spate of attacks the previous day and overnight by Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq killed at least six Turkish soldiers. The attacks prompted retaliatory airstrikes that left four members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, dead on Thursday, according to a social media post shared later by the ministry. – Associated Press

Turkey aims to lower soaring inflation permanently after a transitional period where prices remain high, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Thursday in an interview with the Yeni Safak newspaper. – Reuters

Asli Aydintasbas and Jeremy Shapiro writes: Neither enemies nor allies, these powers will not understand Washington’s struggle with Beijing and Moscow in moral or ideological terms. Rather, they will seek to maintain their independence from all sides and constantly ask themselves, What’s in it for us? The United States will need to find answers to that question that go beyond empty paeans to a rules-based order that no one really believes in. Creating a more realistic relationship with a post-Western Turkey, one based on mutually beneficial transactions, would be a good place to start. – Foreign Affairs

Middle East & North Africa

Tunisia and Libya took back 276 sub-Saharan migrants stranded in a desert region along the border between the two countries and brought them to shelters on Thursday. Tunisia has been blamed for dumping the migrants in the sizzling heat in the no-man’s land near the border post of Ras Jedir. – Associated Press

Egypt’s annual headline inflation rose to a new all-time high of 36.5% in July, in line with analysts’ expectations, as food prices soared, data from the country’s statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Thursday. – Reuters

Hal Brands writes: It’s a fair point, given how overstretched the American military is — but one that simply underscores the impossibility of pivoting away from the Middle East. Whether as a source of vital energy or a theater of great-power rivalry, the Middle East keeps intruding on Washington’s agenda. A region the president, and many Americans, would prefer to escape still matters very much. – Bloomberg

Hamdi Malik writes: Additionally, muqawama platforms such as Sabereen News who frantically attacked PM Sudani and head of the Communications and Media Commission (CMC), Ali al-Moayad after the news of blocking telegram was published, later toned down their anti-government narrative. – Washington Institute

Brian Katulis writes: Second, when it comes to foreign policy, the Biden administration faces some serious bandwidth issues as it seeks to support Ukraine, compete with China, address climate change, and link America’s new national industrial policy to measures in the world that build stronger relationships with partners and allies. The effort to produce progress in Israeli-Saudi relations will likely take more time and energy to achieve lasting results and maximum benefits for the broader region and world — it is very much worth the effort, but only if it’s done right. – Middle East Institute

Michaël Tanchum writes: While the prototype Pele reactor is currently mandated to be demonstrated only within the United States under the safety oversight of the DOE, the Department of Defense will decide at a future date about the transition of the technology and its commercial use in private industry. As the security implications of climate change become increasingly stark, Washington should engage Rabat’s forward-leaning posture in finding solutions to water scarcity. With the nuclear option already part of Morocco’s portfolio of possible solutions for addressing the food-water-energy trilemma, the White House should consider how to engage Rabat as a stakeholder in the diffusion of the United States’ Generation IV mobile nuclear power technology. – Middle East Institute

China

The United States and China are the world’s two most important economic powers. But they face polar opposite economic problems. […] China faces a different problem: Deflation. According to official statistics released Wednesday, consumer prices had fallen by 0.3 percent over the last year after being stagnant for months. – Washington Post 

President Joe Biden signed an executive order Wednesday to block and regulate high-tech U.S.-based investments going toward China — a move the administration said was targeted but it also reflected an intensifying competition between the world’s two biggest powers. – Associated Press

China is likely to launch military drills next week near Taiwan, using Vice President William Lai’s stopovers in the United States as a pretext to intimidate voters ahead of an election next year and make them “fear war”, Taiwanese officials said. – Reuters

China has lifted pandemic-era restrictions on group tours for more countries, including key markets such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia in a potential boon for their tourism industries. – Reuters

China has uncovered a Chinese national suspected of spying for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), its state security ministry said on Friday, highlighting what it said were the risks and dangers of Chinese citizens being recruited abroad. – Reuters

China will pause plans to build a new embassy in London, a decision that may increase diplomatic tensions when both countries want to repair damaged relations, people with knowledge of the situation said. – Reuters

President Joe Biden blasted China’s economic problems as a “ticking time bomb” and referred to Communist Party leaders as “bad folks,” his latest barb against President Xi Jinping’s government even as his administration seeks to improve overall ties with Beijing. – Bloomberg

Companies from South Africa and China concluded trade deals worth $2.19 billion during a visit to the country by Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. – Bloomberg

The material two alleged spies for China provided to their handlers point to a sustained interest from the People’s Liberation Army in amphibious operations as threats to Taiwan grow, two naval experts told USNI News. – USNI News

Editorial: U.S. investment in Chinese startups dropped by more than 30% from 2021 to 2022. U.S. investment in Chinese venture funds fell by nearly 80% between the first quarter of 2019 and this year. China needs more foreign investment as its economy slows and its industrial policy fails to deliver faster growth. Mr. Biden’s order won’t block businesses from investing in China for the most part, but they may decide on their own that the risks exceed the benefits. – Wall Street Journal

Joseph C. Sternberg writes:  If a developing country like China starts to flirt with deflation, the convergence definitely isn’t happening. The solution must be to jump-start productivity. This isn’t what Western gadflies will tell Beijing to do. Expect more pleading for another round of monetary credit stimulus as in the post-2008 period. Mr. Xi’s test is whether he can deliver a true productivity revolution this time instead. – Wall Street Journal

Daniel Moss writes: Either way, a world economy that’s singing out of harmony is one replete with risks. The Fed again finds itself the hinge point. For all the gloom emanating from China, its central bank seems rather passive. US inflation is still too high for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to start sending out gentle flares about the global economy as he did in late 2018 or as Janet Yellen before him did in 2015, after the People’s Bank of China botched a currency devaluation. – Bloomberg

Minxin Pei writes: China’s economic woes should give the US more confidence about its ability to prevail in the long run. Nevertheless, it must also exercise strategic discipline. Like Beijing, Washington must be selective about where to contest Chinese power and where to avoid needless entanglements. It shouldn’t waste energy and resources obsessing over Chinese influence in every corner of the globe and every global institution. – Bloomberg

Zachary Faria writes: The real story here is the illegal Chinese bio lab secretly operating on U.S. soil, and the possibility of there being more labs like it, three years after a Chinese lab was responsible for a global pandemic. But the Associated Press would rather focus on “misinformation” and “conspiracy theories” because its obsession with allegations of ethnic bigotry takes priority over public health, even though public health is being threatened by Chinese medical companies and even the Chinese government. – Washington Examiner 

Asia

Outgoing Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has unveiled a list of people expected to feature in a new cabinet, including several sons and daughters of close allies and serving ministers. – Reuters

Australian journalist Cheng Lei, detained in China on national security charges, has described how standing in sunlight for just 10 hours a year feels in a “love letter” to her country. – Reuters

Michael Rubin writes: It is time instead for USAID to send trucks flying the American flag to the Lachin corridor under the observation of US diplomats stationed in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. If Azerbaijan impedes diplomats’ movement, it is time to send its ambassador home. If it refuses to allow the flow of relief supplies or, worse, threatens to kill Western observers as Azerbaijan’s ambassador in Brussels recently did, then it is time for sanctions. There is no shortage of options. Biden can put an end to the Section 907 waiver, enforce of the Humanitarian Assistance Corridors Act, designate under the Magnitsky Act, and even support Aliyev’s indictment under the Genocide Convention. – American Enterprise Institute

Africa

A group of West African governments mobilized a standby military force Thursday, officials said, as regional leaders meeting at an emergency summit struggled to chart a clear path out of the crisis in Niger two weeks after Nigerien generals unseated the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. – Washington Post 

The United States will hold the junta that took power in Niger accountable for the safety of democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, his family, and detained members of the government, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday. – Reuters

Niger’s junta told a top U.S. diplomat that they would kill deposed President Mohamed Bazoum if neighboring countries attempted any military intervention to restore his rule, two Western officials told The Associated Press. – Associated Press 

A British man was killed amid violent protests in the South African city of Cape Town after the vehicle he was riding in drove into the midst of some of the unrest. The 40-year-old man was sitting in the passenger seat of the vehicle when he was shot in the head, South African police said. – Associated Press

South Africa’s former president Jacob Zuma appeared at the Estcourt correctional facility on Friday morning and was released under a remission process, a senior prisons official said. – Reuters

At least 20 people were killed by gunmen in north-central Nigeria early Thursday, surivors said, the latest in a cycle of violence targeting remote villages in the West African nation. – Associated Press

Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni on Thursday denounced the World Bank’s decision to suspend new funding in response to a harsh anti-LGBTQ law and vowed to find alternative sources of credit. – Reuters

Cybersecurity

The hacker attack highlights what has become one of the White House’s key concerns about the powerful, fast-growing new AI models: How secure they really are, and whether they could pose a threat either to American citizens, or to national security on the global stage. – Politico

While the market mostly shrugged off President Joe Biden’s move to prohibit some U.S. technology investments in China, U.S. investors said they were worried Beijing would retaliate or pull back from buying American technology. – Reuters

China wrapping up its crackdown on tech firms and switching to supporting the industry sets the tone as the country’s earnings season swings into action. – Bloomberg

A newly identified cyberespionage group in Belarus is targeting foreign embassies often with the assistance of local internet service providers, researchers with the cybersecurity firm ESET said Thursday. – CyberScoop

Intelligence gathered in cyberspace is helping Ukraine understand Russia’s plans and stop the enemy from carrying them out, according to the country’s top cyber and information security official. – The Record

China has not yet surpassed the U.S. in conducting cyber espionage despite several successful hacks that have been publicly linked to Beijing, the head of the U.S.’s premier digital spy agency said Thursday. – The Record

Nicholas A. Henderson writes: In this increasingly competitive environment between the United States and China, securing critical technologies is vital, and semiconductors are crucial to our national security and economic strength. China’s influence in this sector is growing. With the potential for Beijing to gain a leg up on the rest of the industry, it will be necessary for Washington to leverage all of its advantages to secure the high ground. A cooperative semiconductor agreement between allies is the answer. – The National Interest