Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

At 8:06 a.m. Tuesday, President Trump issued the most dramatic ultimatum of his presidency: Unless Iran struck a deal in the next 12 hours, “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” […]  Less than ninety minutes before his deadline, Trump backed down, writing in a social-media post that he had agreed to a two-week cease-fire with Iran and would suspend his threatened strikes subject to the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. military bombed Iran’s most strategic economic asset, Kharg Island, for the second time on April 7. The tiny spot of land in the northern Persian Gulf is the launch point for 90% of the country’s oil exports. – Wall Street Journal

Russia and China on Tuesday vetoed a resolution at the United Nations Security Council that called for countries to cooperate in taking defensive action to open the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has closed in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks. – New York Times

Most of the countries in the world have agreed to an international treaty, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, that bans interfering with ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. – New York Times

Two French citizens detained in Iran for almost four years, after being convicted of espionage in a trial the French government deemed “completely unfounded” and “arbitrary,” were released on Tuesday and taken out of the country. – New York Times

A personal envoy of U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres plans to visit Iran as part of his efforts ​to encourage an end to the Iran war, but his ‌travel plans will depend on security and logistics, a U.N. source said. – Reuters

A Japanese national detained in Iran has ​been released on bail, Japan’s top ‌government spokesperson said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Iran on ​Tuesday attacked Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex, the heart of the kingdom’s downstream sector, its ‌Revolutionary Guards said, the latest evidence of Tehran’s ability to strike back in response to U.S.-Israeli attacks ahead of a U.S. deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump ‌said on Wednesday the United States will help with the ​traffic buildup in the ​Strait of Hormuz. “We’ll be loading ⁠up with supplies of ​all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ ​around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well,” Trump ​said. – Reuters

The head of a body representing global airlines said on Wednesday that even if Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz it would take months ​for jet fuel supply to recover given disruptions to Middle East refining ‌capacity. – Reuters

Shipowners are rushing to understand the fine print of a US-Iran ceasefire that could temporarily unblock the Strait of Hormuz and open an exit for more than 800 vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf. – Bloomberg

Iran said Tuesday it would guarantee the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz with Iranian military coordination as part of its two-week ceasefire with the United States and Israel. – Washington Examiner

Iran launched missiles toward Israel early Wednesday morning, hours after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Air raid alerts continued in Israel after the truce was announced, raising immediate doubts about whether the arrangement would hold. – Jerusalem Post

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has accused senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders of undermining ceasefire efforts and escalating the conflict, according to a report by the opposition-aligned Iran International. – Ynet

Iranian facilities affiliated with chemical and biological weapons research have been hit by the United States and Israel without much fanfare, satellite imagery and the analysis of images shared on social media show. – Defense News

Editorial: If a deal isn’t reached, the U.S. would benefit from naval help from allies, and all would benefit from opening the Strait, but the Europeans apparently want Security Council authorization before committing. Then they wouldn’t be helping Mr. Trump but “enforcing international law.” The United Arab Emirates pushed the U.N. resolution, proposed by Bahrain, to give hesitant states the fig leaf they might need to act. With that avenue now blocked, as was always foreseeable, there’s no more dodging if Iran continues to block the Strait. States will have to judge for themselves and, in doing so, reveal their loyalties. – Wall Street Journal

Nadim Koteich writes: His navy is at the bottom of the Gulf. His missile arsenal is a fraction of what it was. His neighbors are not mourning. They are urging Washington to finish the job. That is not a war Iran is winning. Saying otherwise is not sophistication. It is not moral complexity. It is a political project dressed in the language of seriousness, executed by people who know exactly what they are doing and are counting on the rest of us not to notice. – Jerusalem Post

Brigadier Anil Raman writes: Iran’s strategy does not depend on achieving full battlespace control. It depends on ensuring that the cost of operating within that battlespace rises continuously across all three layers simultaneously, that the timeline for decisive resolution extends beyond what U.S. political will can sustain, and that the friction of degraded bases, contested chokepoints, and a missile-saturated inner theater produces the strategic outcome that military defeat alone cannot. The United States can still reach the fight. The question Iran is betting on is whether it can get there fast enough, with enough left, to conclude it. – War on the Rocks

Michael Rubin writes: Discussion about Trump’s polemics or debates about the timing of the war and its wisdom all touch upon political judgment, but the failure to estimate Iran’s quantity and quality of its arsenal raises other questions. The U.S. intelligence community likes to sweep errors under the rug, protect its institutional interests, and shift blame in the debate. While there is much to blame Trump for, Congressional oversight should not let the intelligence community escape accountability. It is time for a Congressional investigation into the failures of the Iran war, with the goal not of assigning blame but of ensuring undercounts do not persist. – 19fortyfive.com

Hezbollah

Preliminary findings in a U.N. probe into the deaths of three Indonesian peacekeepers in Lebanon last month show one ​was killed by an Israeli tank projectile and two ‌others by an improvised explosive device most likely placed by Hezbollah, the U.N. said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The Israeli military said on Tuesday it had completed deployment of ground troops along a strategic ridge in southern Lebanon from which Hezbollah could fire anti-tank guided missiles directly at Israeli communities. – Times of Israel

Neville Teller writes: If such talks were ever to be arranged, Hezbollah would undoubtedly attempt to disrupt them, so Israel’s participation would have to be dependent on firm security guarantees, perhaps underwritten by international enforcement. The possibility of face-to-face talks may seem unlikely. But should the potential, however remote, of a collaborative Lebanese-Israeli effort to strike down Hezbollah – with Israel for once in lockstep with international opinion – be rejected out of hand? – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

Israel’s military issued ​repeated urgent warnings ‌to residents of the ​city of ​Tyre on Wednesday ⁠to evacuate ​their homes ​immediately and move north of the ​Zahrani River, ​saying it will ‌strike ⁠the area. – Reuters

The Israeli military has refrained from striking a key border crossing between Syria and Lebanon after both pressed the U.S. on the ​need to keep it open, a Lebanese source familiar with ‌the matter said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Bombardment in southern Lebanon on Tuesday forced a convoy of humanitarian aid organized by the Vatican’s embassy for a besieged Christian town to turn back, ​a priest in the town told Reuters. – Reuters

A vehicle was struck in the town of al-Qalila in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, with no immediate confirmation on casualties or damage, according to Lebanese media reports, amid ongoing confusion over the scope of the ceasefire. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

It seems like a familiar rite of passage: a dad teaching his daughter to drive. Except in this case, the girl is at the helm of a hulking battle tank, her head sticking out from the driver’s hatch, while the father — the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un — reclines on the hull behind her. – New York Times

North Korea fired several ballistic missiles ​toward the sea off its east coast on Wednesday, South Korea’s military said, following a separate launch detected a day earlier as ‌Pyongyang doused Seoul’s hopes of an easing in tensions. – Reuters

The Bank of Korea will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.50% on Thursday and for the rest of the year, a Reuters poll ​forecast, as policymakers assess the impact of the Iran war on domestic cost pressures. – Reuters

South Asia

Pakistan will return a $3.5 ​billion loan to the United Arab Emirates this month, two government officials said on Tuesday, raising pressure ‌on reserves and risking breaches of IMF programme targets after it a repaid $1.3 billion Eurobond due April 8. – Reuters

At least four people were killed, two of them by police fire, in India’s ​northeastern state of Manipur on Tuesday, officials ‌said, after months of relative calm. – Reuters

India is planning sovereign guarantees to support insurers that provide cover for vessels ‌travelling in the Persian Gulf, as the Middle East war increases the risks to shipping, said government and industry sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Afghanistan and Pakistan made “useful” progress in talks in China to resolve ​the conflict that broke out between the South Asian neighbours last ‌October, the Taliban administration in Kabul said on Tuesday. – Reuters

India is set ​to receive Iranian ‌oil this week, its first ​purchase in seven ​years after the ⁠U.S. temporarily removed sanctions ​on Iranian oil ​and refined products to ease supply shortages, ​ship tracking ​data from LSEG and Kpler ‌showed ⁠on Wednesday. – Reuters

As US President Donald Trump’s deadline approached for Iran to reach a ceasefire or face “all hell,” Pakistan emerged as a key mediator to help deliver a two-week pause in fighting. – Bloomberg

Europe

Pope Leo XIV, the first U.S.-born pontiff, issued a rare rebuke of President Trump on Tuesday, saying it was “truly unacceptable” to threaten to wipe out Iran’s “whole civilization.” – New York Times

In the face of threats by President Trump to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages,” the British government on Tuesday said that Prime Minister Keir Starmer remained opposed to American use of British bases for anything other than defensive purposes. – New York Times

For Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, the prospect of a high-profile London music festival headlined by Ye, the artist formerly known as Kanye West, presented a host of problems. – New York Times

Portugal said it had authorised 76 landings by U.S. aircraft at the Lajes air base in the Azores and 25 ​overflights of its territory since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war ‌on Iran, on condition they were not used to bomb civilian infrastructure. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to the ​Gulf on Wednesday to hold talks with regional leaders ‌to try to ensure the Strait of Hormuz opens permanently after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, his office said. – Reuters

Donald Trump Jr. lashed out at the European Union on Tuesday, saying its liberal policies were discouraging investment and predicted a “major fracture” between the bloc’s eastern and western member states. – Associated Press

French former President Nicolas Sarkozy maintained his innocence at an appeal hearing in Paris on Tuesday over his conspiracy conviction last year, saying that not a single cent from Libya helped fund his 2007 presidential campaign. – Associated Press

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto defended the decision to deny the US use of an Italian air base for operations in Iran, insisting that the government was following procedures in place for decades. – Bloomberg

The chief economist at Hungary’s competition authority alleged political interference in key cases, as a wave of whistleblowing scandals upends the final week of campaigning in the run-up to a close election that could oust Prime Minister Viktor Orban. – Bloomberg

Denmark’s caretaker Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen headed into a third week of coalition talks with a stronger hand after the US again exerted pressure over Greenland and internal turmoil among rival parties. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Mr. Vance’s support for Mr. Orbán is so strong that he is wrapping his arms around him even as Mr. Orbán may lose Sunday’s election amid frustration with the poor state of Hungary’s economy. The alternative, far from a woke bogeyman, is a conventional center-right politician, Péter Magyar. He’d also be a U.S. ally if Mr. Vance doesn’t alienate him. American conservatives have plenty of reasons to distrust Europe. But Mr. Vance isn’t winning many friends for America by treating Hungary’s election like it’s the Iowa caucuses. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Last year battle-hardened Ukrainian drone teams drilled alongside allied forces, exposing where NATO needs improvement. Member states are also cultivating defense-industry partnerships with Ukraine, which is especially useful on innovative technologies. European nations have an economic and security stake in defeating Iran and reopening Hormuz. They would be wise to help the U.S. But Europe is getting serious about its defenses and bearing much more of the burden for Ukraine. The U.S. needs to pick up its military spending too. – Wall Street Journal

Jillian Kay Melchior writes: Yet that’s what Ukrainians have sometimes had to do, and it’s one recourse NATO forces practiced during Aces Spyglass. I saw a soldier shoot down a practice drone after a few misses. Because practice drones are in limited supply, the troops also practiced by shooting down clay pigeons, though they move more predictably than drones. In real life soldiers would likely be under attack by multiple drones at once. For all the progress the British forces in the NATO multinational battle group showed, I found myself worrying about them. In extremis, no one has a better solution right now for the drone threat to tanks and armored vehicles—not the Russians, not the Ukrainians, and not NATO. – Wall Street Journal

The Americas

Colombian President Gustavo Petro said on Tuesday evening that his government would ​submit an economic emergency decree and a new tax reform bill to Congress ‌to balance the 2026 budget. – Reuters

The Trump administration will try to resolve as many problems with the ​U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement as it can before July 1, ‌but negotiations to rebalance the trade pact are likely to continue past that deadline, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Hundreds of Cuban women gathered Tuesday in Havana to decry a U.S. energy embargo and other measures imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump that are strangling the Caribbean island. – Associated Press

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa said he would welcome US troops to help confront the “security crisis” in his nation, provided they follow the lead of local armed forces. – Bloomberg

Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel rebuked the U.S. threat to take over his country, warning that efforts to do so would lead to “incalculable” loss of life. – Washington Examiner

Cesar Conda and Sevastian Horton write: For the United States, a free and prosperous Cuba isn’t just an economic opportunity — it’s a strategic imperative. It would strengthen our hemispheric security and reduce the risk of a humanitarian crisis that could trigger mass migration to our shores. Cuba won’t replicate Hong Kong exactly. It will face stiff competition from Singapore, Panama, and even Miami, all of which have a head start. But the opportunity is real. If the United States pairs its leverage with a clear strategic vision of insisting on genuine freedom first, then opening the doors to economic partnership, it could be the single biggest catalyst in Cuba’s transformation. The window is open, but it won’t stay open forever. – Washington Examiner

Leslie Palti-Guzman writes: Commercialization of Venezuelan gas would provide Europe with a new source of supply as it seeks further diversification from both Russia and the United States, and as LNG from Qatar has recently experienced major disruption. It would also provide a steady source of supply for neighboring Trinidad, seen as a natural partner to export Venezuelan gas, as its own organic resources have been depleted. For Washington, Venezuelan gas routed through Trinidad would reinforce Western Hemisphere energy integration, support a key Caribbean partner, and help stabilize global gas markets, keeping cost-competitive Russian gas at bay. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Cybersecurity

A vaguely worded warning from the Trump administration on Tuesday said that hackers backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps had begun a series of cyberattacks on water and energy systems across the United States, presumably in retaliation for American and Israeli strikes over the past five weeks. – New York Times

TikTok plans to invest 1 ‌billion euros ($1.16 billion) to build a second data centre in Finland in less than a year as it moves data storage for European users to the continent, company officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos ​Mitsotakis is expected ‌on Wednesday to announce ​a ban ​on access to social ⁠media for ​children under the ​age of 15, according to a ​government briefing. – Reuters

Tech billionaire Bill Gates will appear before the House panel investigating disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein on June 10, said a person familiar with the plans. – Bloomberg

A hacker has allegedly stolen a massive trove of sensitive data – including highly classified defense documents and missile schematics – from a state-run Chinese supercomputer in what could potentially constitute the largest known heist of data from China. – CNN

Countries should get behind a global movement to shift the norms and laws around how kids use social media, Australia’s ambassador to the EU told POLITICO. – Politico

Europe needs to develop its own artificial intelligence capabilities to ensure its militaries can’t be “turned off” by foreign adversaries, the CEO of Europe’s leading AI company warned Tuesday. – Politico

British security officials warned Tuesday that hackers linked to Russian military intelligence have been exploiting vulnerable internet routers to hijack web traffic and spy on victims, in what authorities described as a broad and ongoing cyberespionage campaign. – The Record

A group of about 50 former national security officials sent a letter to Congress on Tuesday urging lawmakers to approve a “clean” renewal of an electronic surveillance authority slated to expire later this month. – The Record

Major technology companies have joined forces in an effort to use advanced artificial intelligence to identify and address security flaws in the world’s most critical software systems, marking a significant shift in how the industry approaches cybersecurity threats. – Cyberscoop