Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

The Israeli military has acknowledged flaws in its initial accounts of its troops’ involvement in the killing last month of 15 people in southern Gaza who the United Nations said were all paramedics and rescue workers. – New York Times

Britain and Israel traded sharp criticisms this weekend after Israel blocked two British lawmakers from entering the country and sent them back to London. – New York Times

Palestinian militant group Hamas said it fired a barrage of rockets at cities in Israel’s south on Sunday in response to Israeli “massacres” of civilians in Gaza. Israel’s military said about 10 projectiles were fired, but most were successfully intercepted. Israel’s Channel 12 reported a direct hit in the southern city of Ashkelon. – Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet on Monday with President Donald Trump in Washington to seek a better tariff deal for Israel and to discuss the war in Gaza, the situation in Syria and the Iranian nuclear program, an Israeli official said. – Bloomberg

Israel has dramatically expanded its footprint in the Gaza Strip since relaunching its war against Hamas last month. It now controls more than 50% of the territory and is squeezing Palestinians into shrinking wedges of land. – Associated Press

The Trump administration moved forward with the sale of more than 20,000 U.S.-made assault rifles to Israel last month, according to a document seen by Reuters and a source familiar with the matter, pushing ahead with a sale that the administration of former president Joe Biden delayed over concerns they could be used by extremist Israeli settlers. – Reuters

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Friday said it had killed the terrorist leader responsible for the abduction of, and “likely personally involved” in the murder of, Shiri Bibas and her young sons, Kfir, 10-months old, and Ariel, four years old. – New York Post

Editorial: The current tariff dispute threatens to potentially erode some of this foundation, introducing an element of unpredictability into a partnership that has long been a cornerstone of both nations’ foreign policies. Moving forward, it is imperative for both nations to engage in open and productive dialogue to address these trade issues. Israel’s proactive removal of tariffs on US goods was a gesture of goodwill, and Trump’s response was no way to treat a friend. – Jerusalem Post

Jonathan Ruhe writes: This matters in an operational environment requiring multitudes of space-based sensors to detect incoming threats, and to pick out the highest priority targets in large swarms that may also include decoys. These are just some of the steps required to address our vulnerabilities, but fortunately, they build on joint U.S.-Israel efforts that have already defied long odds to achieve real results. – The Hill

Mordechai Kedar writes: Azerbaijan and Israel’s cooperation continues to grow, both through SOCAR’s purchase of a 10% stake in the Tamar field and its activities in gas exploration in Israel’s economic waters. The two countries have bound their futures together and stand to benefit significantly from the discovery of Israeli gas. It seems that only good can come from this collaboration. – Jerusalem Post

Jonathan Kenigson writes: Anticipated further submissions shall explore these musings in greater detail. The international community must support Israel’s security against antagonistic regional nuclear proliferation via diplomacy, sanctions, Security Council resolutions, and shared intelligence. Recent rifts between the US and European allies have complicated these convergent ambitions. Despite their alarming ideological and economic clashes, Washington and Brussels must look beyond such rifts to support Israel’s defensive stance. – Times of Israel

Russia & Ukraine

In the largest evacuation in this region since the early days of the war, tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing intense Russian bombing and nonstop drone attacks in the villages near the front line. – Washington Post

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the U.S. for its muted reaction to a Russian missile strike that killed at least 18, including nine children, highlighting the simmering tensions as President Trump seeks to placate Russia as part of efforts to end the war. – Wall Street Journal

Berlin has been paying for Ukraine’s access to a satellite-internet network operated by France’s Eutelsat (ETL.PA), opens new tab, as Europe seeks alternatives to Elon Musk’s Starlink. – Reuters

Fake cosmetics, massage pillows and sex toys. Crude homemade explosives. A Russian known as Warrior. A code word: Mary. These are among the key elements of a suspected Russian-run sabotage plot that led to three parcels being detonated at courier depots in Britain, Germany and Poland last summer, a person with knowledge of the Polish investigation told Reuters. – Reuters

One person was killed Sunday as Russian air strikes hit the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, while the death toll from Friday’s deadly attack on the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih continued to rise. – Associated Press

Marc Champion writes: I don’t know the right response to this dilemma, whether Hodges or Watling is right. Europe has an essential self-interest in defending against Russian expansion in Ukraine, so it needs to be ready to take risks. But it also needs to be coldly calculating about what any land force is for and whether it’s fit for that purpose. Protecting Ukraine’s skies and suppressing Russia’s ability to launch missiles and glide bombs at Ukraine may be the most effective contribution it can make. – Bloomberg

Iraq

Several powerful Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are prepared to disarm for the first time to avert the threat of an escalating conflict with the U.S. Trump administration, 10 senior commanders and Iraqi officials told Reuters. – Reuters

Iraq’s Oil Ministry called on Friday for an urgent meeting with relevant parties to resume negotiations on the export of Kurdistan regional oil, the state news agency reported. – Reuters

Recent Arab media reports claimed Iraq is attempting to curb the presence of Houthi terrorists on its soil. The Iran-backed terror group, which controls northwestern Yemen, is said to have operatives training in Iraq and stationed in Baghdad’s political and diplomatic centers. – Ynet

Lebanon

A top Trump administration envoy to the Middle East was in Lebanon on Saturday amid U.S. pressure on the country to crack down on Hezbollah and as tensions with Israel flare despite a U.S.-brokered cease-fire. – New York Times

The Israeli military on Sunday said it carried out an airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing two, in an attack that targeted Hezbollah operatives who were trying to rebuild “terror infrastructure.” – Times of Israel

David Schenker writes: To be fair, four months on, the LAF is doing a credible job in fulfilling its obligations in the south. Critiques and anxieties aside, the Lebanon cease-fire is functioning so far, and it appears to be durable. More can and should be done over time by the LAF to disarm Hezbollah both to the south and north of the Litani. Until that happens, however, Israel will play its part, and not everyone in Lebanon is unhappy about that. – Foreign Policy

Middle East & North Africa

A drone attack that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan last year was most likely preventable, according to a military investigation that determined that numerous failures — from complacency and indecisiveness to outright negligence — contributed to the worst assault on American troops since the fall of Afghanistan. – Washington Post

Mali accused neighbouring Algeria of shooting down one of its surveillance drones near their shared border in a statement read out by the security minister on national TV on Sunday. – Reuters

France and Algeria agreed to renew cooperation in all sectors, France’s foreign minister said on Sunday after a day of talks aimed at resuming dialogue following months of bickering. – Reuters

Tunisian authorities have dismantled makeshift camps housing 7,000 sub-Saharan African migrants and begun forcibly deporting some of them, a senior official told Reuters on Saturday, as the country grapples with an unprecedented migrant crisis. – Reuters

Libya’s central bank devalued the dinar by 13% as the divided OPEC member grapples with a decline in crude revenue that a plunge in global oil prices stands to worsen. – Bloomberg

Neville Teller writes: In fact, Qatar’s pursuit of influence through these methods and others is not unique. It is in line with the practice of other Gulf states. Perhaps, though, Qatar is rather more dynamic in its quest than others. And perhaps it occasionally oversteps that line – so difficult sometimes to discern – between acceptable and questionable practice. – Jerusalem Post

China

President Trump is pressing for access to mineral rights across the globe, hoping to outduel China in a global competition for raw materials to fuel U.S. military and industrial might. – Wall Street Journal

President Donald Trump said Sunday that he is not willing to make a deal with China unless the trade deficit of over $1 trillion is resolved first. – Fox News

China is the first major country to strike back at the United States with counter-tariffs in response to the global trade war that U.S. President Donald Trump launched this week. The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced on April 4 that Beijing will levy 34 percent tariffs on all U.S. imports, on top of existing tariffs. The new measures will go into effect on April 10, a day after Trump’s “retaliatory tariffs” on China and other U.S. trading partners are scheduled to begin. – Foreign Policy

Editorial: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney summed up the global mood: “Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over.” Noting the end of an 80-year period of American economic leadership, Mr. Carney added: “While this is a tragedy, it is also the new reality.” Mr. Xi and his Communist comrades have long believed the West is weak, divided and in retreat. He will see this week as confirmation, and he won’t have to do much to exploit those divisions. – Wall Street Journal

Xiao Junzheng writes: China has proposed the International Science and Technology Cooperation Initiative, advocating and practicing the principles of openness, fairness, justice, and non-discrimination in international scientific and technological cooperation, and adhering to the belief that “science has no borders and benefits all mankind.” China is willing and ready to enhance scientific and technological cooperation with all countries, including Israel, to foster an open innovation ecosystem, promote the sharing of innovation achievements, and achieve common development. – Jerusalem Post

Erin L. Murphy and Matt Pearl writes: It is difficult to overstate the urgency of finding and implementing solutions to address these challenges. Multiple cuts to a subsea cable system, whether to the trans-Pacific cables or in the Suez Canal, would lead to immediate and devastating economic and information security consequences. And the reveal of China’s cable cutting ship should silence any doubts regarding the threat of intentional cuts. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Asia

Stock markets across the Asia-Pacific opened sharply lower on Monday, extending a global sell-off triggered by President Donald Trump unleashing a global trade war that threatens to roil the global economy. – Washington Post

The European Commission president said the EU wants to make a fair deal with Central Asian countries for access to raw materials and presented a new strategic partnership between the regions. – Wall Street Journal

Vietnam’s top leader, To Lam, has asked President Trump to delay the imposition of tariffs for at least 45 days so the two sides can avert a move that would devastate the Vietnamese economy and raise prices for American consumers. – New York Times

Rodrigo Duterte has been kept in a cell in The Hague for more than three weeks on charges of crimes against humanity for the deadly antidrug campaigns he oversaw in the Philippines. But the former president is still on the ballot in elections for mayor in his home base next month, a race that political analysts say he stands a good chance of winning. – New York Times

The Philippines expressed alarm on Saturday over the arrest of three Filipinos in China on suspicion of espionage, saying they were ordinary citizens and the arrests could be retaliation for Manila’s crackdown against alleged Chinese spies. – Reuters

New Zealand said on Monday it would boost defence spending by NZ$9 billion ($5 billion) over the next four years, and aim to nearly double spending to 2% as a share of GDP in the next eight years, at a time of rapidly growing tension worldwide. – Reuters

The head of Taiwan’s National Security Council arrived in the United States for talks with President Donald Trump’s administration, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday, days after China concluded war games around Taiwan. – Reuters

Africa

A standoff between the president and his deputy is threatening to tip the world’s youngest nation, South Sudan, into a fresh round of ethnic killing. – Wall Street Journal

The first stop for many Sudanese refugees fleeing deadly ground attacks and airstrikes in Sudan is a remote mobile medical clinic along the border with Chad, operated by Doctors Without Borders. Sudan’s civil war is entering its third year, and increasing airstrikes have been a driving factor for many refugees now fleeing the country for safety in neighboring Chad. – New York Times

The U.S. said on Saturday it would revoke all visas held by South Sudanese passport holders over South Sudan’s failure to accept the return of its repatriated citizens, at a time when many in Africa fear that country could return to civil war. – Reuters

Russia has committed to helping military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger acquire arms and training for a planned 5,000-strong force to deploy in the central Sahel region, a statement said. – Reuters

Congo’s government and M23 rebels last week held private talks in Qatar for the first time since the rebels conducted a lightning offensive in the country’s east, a source briefed on the discussions told Reuters. – Reuters

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa said he’ll suspend tariffs on imports of US goods, seeking to turn Donald Trump’s levies on much of the world into an opportunity to reset strained relations. – Bloomberg

United States

A federal judge rebuked the Trump administration Sunday for refusing to take steps to return a man wrongly deported to a mega-prison in El Salvador, saying that officials have offered “no evidence” he was a gang member and that the federal government has the authority to bring him back. – Washington Post

Trump administration officials claimed Sunday more than 50 countries have reached out about negotiating the president’s sweeping tariffs—reportedly including major countries like India, Israel and Vietnam—as the president has suggested he could be willing to reach deals to lower his tariffs, despite some of his aides denying that. – Forbes

Editorial: We aren’t Pollyanish about this. Mr. Trump really may believe that the “little disturbance” he predicted from his tariffs will soon give way to a new era of prosperity. If his rhetoric on reciprocal tariffs is merely spin, then the rest of the world can pursue alternative trading arrangements that leave the U.S. behind. But the zero option is worth a try. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The U.K. has carried out a “major” test in its hypersonic weapons program in “close collaboration” with the U.S. government, the British Defense Ministry said on Sunday. – Newsweek

The Navy is sending six Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers, each equipped with the Coyote and Roadrunner counter-drone system, with the USS Gerald R. Ford to ensure its protection. – The National Interest

Anduril Industries unveiled a new family of autonomous underwater vehicles called Copperhead, designed to meet military and commercial needs for larger fleets of uncrewed maritime vessels. – Defense News

The U.S. Space Force announced more than $13.5 billion in launch contracts Friday to SpaceX, United Launch Alliance and Blue Origin for missions that will fly between fiscal years 2027 and 2032. – Defense News

Aaron Brady writes: However, the biggest challenge is funding. As the United States prioritizes competition with China, Arctic investments risk being sidelined. Yet failing to act creates a dangerous gap that adversaries are preparing to exploit. American cost-effective investments now in the strategic potential of Greenland can secure a dominant position in the Arctic, simultaneously protecting the homeland and global interests. – War on the Rocks