Fdd's overnight brief

Turkey

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday said that a joint statement by roughly 100 retired admirals appeared to incite a coup against his government. – Bloomberg

Former pro-Kurdish party leader Selahattin Demirtas, jailed since 2016 despite Western calls for his release, said the Turkish opposition should unite against rising oppression and moves to divide them, including a court case to ban his party. – Reuters

Turkish inflation accelerated for the sixth month in a row in March as the weak lira drove up the cost of imports, making it harder for the country’s new central bank governor to fulfil President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s wish to ease monetary policy. – Financial Times

Jordan

Jordan’s Prince Hamzeh bin Hussein, the former crown prince who has been under house arrest after an alleged coup attempt, affirmed Monday his loyalty to his half brother, King Abdullah II, according to a letter with Hamzeh’s signature released by the royal court. – Washington Post

The house arrest of Jordan’s King Abdullah’s half-brother, Prince Hamzah bin Hussein, for actions targeting the security and stability of a key Israeli and United States ally reverberated globally and regionally. – Jerusalem Post

Jordan banned all news outlets and social media users on Tuesday from publishing any content related to King Abdullah’s half-brother Prince Hamza after the latter was accused of plotting to destabilise the country. – Reuters

 Editorial: Maybe Israel or Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has ties to Mr. Awadallah, has been meddling in Jordanian politics. […]Rather than arrest him and his allies, King Abdullah ought to be considering how he can open space for more debate and more legitimate political activity. And rather than blindly support the ruler, the Biden administration and other Western democracies ought to be telling him, quietly but firmly, that the repressive status quo is unsustainable. – Washington Post

David Gardner writes: King Abdullah is supported by the west and, ostensibly, by his western-allied neighbours. But there are visible strains with Israel and Saudi Arabia, which intersect over Jerusalem. There is suspicion in Jordan that the House of Saud wants to take oversight of the city’s Islamic sites from the Hashemites — from whom crown prince Mohammed’s grandfather took the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in 1925 — as the price of Saudi detente with Israel. There is more intrigue to come. – Financial Times

David Rosenberg writes: Going forward, Abdullah faces immense economic challenges and no easy solution. But if there is one, it lies in copying the Dubai model as best it can by turning itself into a center for logistics, tourism and high-tech by welcoming outsiders. It’s not a perfect fit, but Jordan does have a stable and well-run government, proximity to the Israeli economy and to Europe, and a decent level of human capital. You can see the day where, if Jordan’s cup doesn’t quite runneth over, it would be a lot more than half full. – Haaretz

Ghaith al-Omari and Robert Satloff write: Jordan’s stability has always been a valuable asset in advancing American regional interests, from expanding Arab-Israeli peace to countering the Islamic State. In the immediate term, then, the United States needs to continue expressing its firm support for Jordan and urging its allies—Arab states, Israel, and others—to give tangible expression to that support. A phone call between President Biden and King Abdullah would send a powerful message toward that end. Washington should also work with Amman on ascertaining any substantive foreign dimensions to the crisis, either clarifying them or laying to rest potentially damaging rumors. – Washington Institute

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The former statements regarding the controversy, which included very strong accusations, will now have to be analyzed to see if the Kingdom follows through on claims of a foreign plot that emerged on April 4, or whether this is quietly forgotten. Jordan’s other crises, such as the economy and COVID-19 would likely mean it is in the interests of Amman for this to quietly go away. Mediation and less talk of foreign plots could make that happen, and it appears to be in the making. – Jerusalem Post

Middle East & North Africa

The Biden administration has reaffirmed that former Egyptian prime minister and International Monetary Fund representative Hazem el-Beblawi enjoyed diplomatic immunity from a federal lawsuit brought last year by a U.S. citizen seeking to hold him liable for torture. – Washington Post

Oil price volatility has increased in the past two weeks due to the blockage incident in the Suez Canal and an OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, chief economist for Bank Leumi, wrote in a report by the bank released on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Jason Rezaian writes: While Foley’s efforts were honorable and courageous, Sukhraj-Hammerl says that journalists shouldn’t be expected to do the work that is the responsibility of governments. Sukhraj-Hammerl is right. We must support her quest for answers so that those responsible for Anton Hammerl’s death, and its coverup, are not allowed to walk away with impunity. And just as importantly, so that she and her family can finally close this tragic chapter. – Washington Post

Seth J. Frantzman writes: But there is little evidence that Jolani or HTS fight the Assad regime; they seem to spend most of their time policing how women dress and turning Idlib into a religious extremist sub-state. Experience has shown that such sub-states usually are breeding grounds for extremists. – Jerusalem Post

China

A thousand years ago, when money meant coins, China invented paper currency. Now the Chinese government is minting cash digitally, in a re-imagination of money that could shake a pillar of American power. – Wall Street Journal

In the wake of Western sanctions, the Chinese government has responded with a fresh wave of Xinjiang propaganda across a wide spectrum. The approach ranges from portraying a sanitized, feel-good version of life in Xinjiang — as in the example of the musical — to deploying Chinese officials on social media sites to attack Beijing’s critics. To reinforce its message, the party is emphasizing that its efforts have rooted out the perceived threat of violent terrorism. – New York Times

All in all, it’s beginning to look more and more like Beijing is probing whether President Joe Biden will take any action after pledging to work with allies in the region to deter Chinese assertiveness. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin has blamed the Obama administration for failing to stop China during a similar incident in 2012 at the Scarborough Shoal, a precursor to President Xi Jinping’s move to build military installations throughout the South China Sea. – Bloomberg

China urged Japan to steer clear of “internal issues” including Hong Kong and Xinjiang as Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga prepares to meet U.S. President Joe Biden later this month. – Bloomberg

A Chinese carrier group is exercising near Taiwan and such drills will become regular, China’s navy said late on Monday in a further escalation of tensions near the island that Beijing claims as its sovereign territory. – Reuters

Editorial: China’s leaders believe they can crush the democracy movement in Hong Kong while preserving its glittery reputation as a bastion of Asian capitalism. But can they? In recent days, China’s puppet regime in Hong Kong has decided to curb access to a government registry that journalists, banks and others use to identify the true owners of companies and property. This is another step backward from Hong Kong’s storied transparency and a sign that authoritarianism is creeping into economic life as well. – Washington Post

Tim Culpan writes: LG Electronics Inc. may have been a pioneer, but the end of its smartphone business shows that being first-mover is rarely an advantage. Instead, its exit will open the way for Chinese brands to take a greater share of the U.S. even as the two nations go deeper into a tech cold war. – Bloomberg

Akhil Ramesh writes: Moving forward, tools of economic statecraft such as aid, supply chains, trade agreements and other carrots to Southeast Asia will provide a more effective long term solution to the South China Sea dispute than the stick of military confrontation. – The Hill

Lauren Speranza and Candace Huntington write: CEE is at a critical crossroads between Washington and Beijing. The Biden administration must take advantage of recent Chinese failures to engage with Central and Eastern Europe on a mutually beneficial security and foreign policy agenda. The opportunities are there, but it’s up to the Biden team to seize them. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Edward Lucas writes: A game played by these rules will blunt the Chinese Communist Party’s best weapon, intimidation. This works chiefly against targets whose willpower is already weak. If Western businesses are willing to give up and go home when threatened  — and are known to be ready to do that — then bullying them becomes useless. Worse, it becomes counterproductive. […]Such a hard-headed approach to China is long overdue. Amid our outrage, we should therefore also be grateful for the Chinese Communist Party’s help in highlighting the increasingly stark choices we face. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Dean Cheng writes: In Anchorage, China’s senior diplomats made clear that they could buffalo their counterparts, disregarding agreed-upon time limits, and chastising America for not treating their “guests” with more respect even while acting in an insulting manner. The South China Sea is likely to be one of the areas where Beijing probes to see whether the US is mush or steel. – New York Post

Asia

Japan’s foreign minister called on his Chinese counterpart to take action to improve human-rights conditions for Uyghurs and stop a crackdown in Hong Kong, according to an official Japanese account of a call between the officials. – Wall Street Journal

Myanmar’s ruling junta stepped up its campaign against celebrities who support nationwide protests against its seizure of power, publishing wanted lists in the state press and warning against using their work. – Associated Press

Opponents of Myanmar’s military junta sprayed red paint on roads in the country’s biggest city on Tuesday to mark the deaths of hundreds of “martyrs” killed by troops, as the crisis dragged on with no clear diplomatic solution in sight. – Reuters

The presence of Chinese vessels at a disputed reef off the Philippines could ignite “unwanted hostilities”, a top aide to President Rodrigo Duterte warned Monday, intensifying a diplomatic spat over the ships. – Agence France-Presse

Pierre Morcos writes: A new window of opportunity is now opening as American, French, and Australian approaches to the Indo-Pacific are gradually converging. On the one hand, the Biden administration is advocating for a more balanced posture toward China, one that combines competition and collaboration in a manner resembling the French and Australian strategies. On the other hand, China has flexed its muscles amid the pandemic, forcing Paris and Canberra to adopt a tougher stance toward Beijing. Harnessing the full potential of this renewed strategic alignment will be pivotal to ensuring a stable, law-based, and multipolar order in the Indo-Pacific. – War on the Rocks

Europe

A terrorist-inspired Maoist group is engaged in an ongoing harassment campaign against the Toronto Jewish community. Last Wednesday, during the Passover holiday, graffiti was discovered at the entrance to a train station that attacked the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition of antisemitism, bearing the name of the Revolutionary Student Movement (RSM). – Algemeiner 

A chilling spectacle of children’s dolls splashed with fake blood alongside dozens of flyers promoting the infamous antisemitic “blood libel” was discovered at a Jewish cemetery in the Danish city of Aalborg on Sunday night. – Algemeiner 

Two Ukrainian servicemen were killed by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine over the past 24 hours, Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday, adding to already escalating tensions. – Reuters

Tom Rogan writes: Put simply, BIden’s tough-on-Putin rhetoric is most certainly not passing its most serious early test of reality. It’s a real problem. U.S. interests in Ukraine center on the consolidation of a pro-western democracy, and the restraint of Putin’s strategic effort to subjugate periphery states under the Kremlin’s kleptocracy. As evinced by Putin’s rapidly increasing influence in Belarus, Georgia, and Hungary, this concern is serious. – Washington Examiner

The Americas

Venezuela has created a special military unit for an area on its border with Colombia that has been the center of clashes between troops and illegal armed groups since last month, the defense minister said on Monday. – Reuters

The United States is pushing in the G20 to adopt a global minimum corporate tax to stem the erosion of government revenues, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday. – Agence France-Presse

Gideon Rachman writes: But the debate is unlikely to be that straightforward. The global promotion of American ideas on racial equality is not always the best way of winning friends overseas. Even some US allies regard it as a new form of American cultural imperialism. Emmanuel Macron, president of France, has complained that an alien ideology of group identity is being imported into France from US universities — trampling over France’s own republican tradition which downplays racial identities and stresses common citizenship. – Financial Times

Defense

The U.S. Air Force has decided to retire the planes used for nearly three decades to fly monitoring missions over Russia, taking a step that raises questions about whether President Biden plans to rejoin a treaty with Moscow that dates to the end of the Cold War. – Wall Street Journal

The US Navy’s Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group (TRCSG) entered the South China Sea on April 4 to conduct routine operations, the US Navy said on Tuesday. – Reuters

A plan to keep the Navy’s guided-missile cruiser fleet operating through the end of the 2030s is struggling as the ships show there’s a very real cost in time and money to keep old platforms around for the sake of having a larger fleet. The Navy’s Ticonderoga-class cruisers pack a punch with their 122 vertical launching system cells packed with guided missiles, but today their most important role is hosting a carrier strike group’s air defense commander and staff during carrier strike group deployments. – USNI News

Drones that hovered around U.S. destroyers for hours off the California coast remain unidentified more than a year and a half after the episode, the Navy’s top officer says. – NBC News

The Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie drone successfully launched an even smaller unmanned aircraft from inside its internal weapons bay on March 26, the U.S. Air Force announced Monday. – C4ISRNET

The U.S. Army is embarking on a competitive prototyping effort to acquire a new, all-terrain vehicle that can operate in the Arctic, with evaluations to take place in Alaska this year, according to Tim Goddette, the program executive officer of the service’s combat support and combat service support. – Defense News

Lockheed Martin on April 5 appointed a new leader for the F-35 program who has experience in overseeing the jet’s sustainment enterprise, amid public criticism over the Joint Strike Fighter’s operations and maintenance costs. – Defense News