Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel leads global surge in military spending, with steepest increase since 1967 WINEP’s David Makovsky and Simone Saidmehr: The benefits of disarming Hamas are clear. What about the price? Iran proposes meeting with Europeans before next talks with US, diplomats say Iran dangles ‘trillion dollar’ incentive for Trump in deal talks Trump talks lifeline for the Mullahs as devastating port explosion turns ‘heartbroken’ Iranians against the regime Moscow digs in over U.S. peace terms as Putin declares short cease-fire in May Will a weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon disarm? US sanctions target deliveries of oil and gas to Houthis China, Philippines make rival claims in disputed South China Sea University of Florida's Hamilton Center’s Walter Russell Mead: On track for Cold War with China Pakistan defence minister says military incursion by India is imminent BRICS nations discuss shared response to Trump trade policiesIn The News
Israel
Humanitarian supplies are running out in Gaza after almost two months of an Israeli blockade, spurring debate among officials here over how to turn the spigot back on while maintaining pressure on Hamas. – Wall Street Journal
The United Nations’ top court held oral arguments Monday to determine whether Israel is required to allow the U.N. and other agencies to provide unhindered aid to Palestinian civilians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. – Washington Post
The head of Israel’s domestic intelligence service announced on Monday that he would step down in June, appearing to end an unusually public and bitter clash with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that has roiled the country. – New York Times
Worldwide military expenditure saw its steepest rise in 2024 since the end of the Cold War, reaching $2.7 trillion as wars and rising tensions drove up spending, researchers said Monday. […]Israel’s spending increase was the largest jump of all, and its portion of the GDP was the second greatest, behind only Ukraine. – Agence France-Presse
Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip overnight into Monday killed at least 27 Palestinians, according to local health officials. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. – Associated Press
Israel plans to make a major regulatory concession to Washington in a bid to get a better deal from President Donald Trump over tariffs, Economy and Industry Minister Nir Barkat said. – Bloomberg
Negotiations held in Cairo to reach a ceasefire in Gaza were on the verge of a “significant breakthrough,” two Egyptian security sources told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters
Reports of a breakthrough in the hostage-ceasefire deal talks are inaccurate, a source said on Tuesday following a Monday report that said that negotiations were pointing in the opposite direction. – Jerusalem Post
Israel should cancel the banknotes it knows were transferred to the Gaza Strip to disrupt Hamas’s cash dominance and target the wealth it has accumulated, Eyal Ofer, an expert on Hamas’s economy in Gaza, told Maariv on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF, as part of an artillery barrage against terrorists and terror infrastructure in the Gaza Strip’s Morag Corridor, launched the “Bar” rocket for the first time, the military confirmed on Monday. – Jerusalem Post
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s firebrand national security minister, was in Washington on Monday to promote President Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza — and, in particular, to try to garner support for moving Arabs out of the embattled enclave. But while Ben-Gvir has branded himself a loyal soldier for Trump’s message, the far-right politician has yet to receive an invitation to discuss the matter with anyone in the Trump administration. – Jewish Insider
Israel will not accept a proposed five-year ceasefire and hostage-release deal, because it does not require Hamas to disarm, a senior Israeli official said in a briefing to journalists on Monday. – Jewish Insider
David Makovsky and Simone Saidmehr write: If renewed fighting is the path Israel chooses, it must think seriously about how to execute it without becoming mired in an indefinite Israeli military occupation, facing an insurgency, and alienating President Trump. Netanyahu has long prided himself on his ability to persuade the public. Yet true leadership requires him to be as explicit about the formidable risks ahead as he is about the anticipated benefits of returning to war on the road to reaching a crucial policy judgment. – Times of Israel
Iran
Iran has proposed meeting the European parties to a 2015 nuclear deal possibly in Rome this Friday if talks resume with the United States, four diplomats said on Monday, cautioning that there has yet to be a response from the Europeans to the idea. –Reuters
France will not think twice about reimposing United Nations sanctions on Iran if negotiations to reach a deal over its nuclear programme do not succeed, its foreign minister told the U.N. Security Council late on Monday. – Reuters
As countries around the world try to bargain with US President Donald Trump over tariffs, longterm adversary Iran is pitching its sanctioned economy to him as an investment opportunity. – Bloomberg
Iranian authorities have said there was a “failure to observe safety principles” at the port of Bandar Abbas, where an explosion Saturday killed dozens of people, but testing is required to determine the causes of the blast. – CNN
Anger among Iranians directed at the Islamic Republic’s regime could soon boil over after massive port explosions over the weekend just as the Lebanese population turned on Hezbollah after a Beirut port explosion five years ago. Will American nuclear talks rescue and legitimize the failing Tehran regime? – New York Sun
Dorian Abbot writes: America has a duty to regulate its borders to promote its own national interest. At times this will involve removing or denying entry to people promoting evil ideologies such as communism or jihadism. But these actions must be taken against guilty people, not the vast majority of immigrant scientists—even those from countries such as China and Iran—who reject these ideologies. Ninety-three percent of Iranian-Americans reject Iran’s current form of government, a brutal Islamic dictatorship that supports an array of terrorist groups including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. – Wall Street Journal
Haim Goloventzitz writes: However, independent military action is not always the correct option, especially not under these circumstances, when Israel lacks the ability to fully eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities and can only delay them temporarily. At this stage, it seems that relying on and coordinating with the US is the better path for Israeli interests. – Jerusalem Post
Russia and Ukraine
Russia’s top diplomat signaled Moscow wouldn’t accede to U.S. terms for an end to the war in Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a three-day cease-fire starting next month. – Wall Street Journal
With President Trump and many other world leaders preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, some Europeans are growing alarmed about what the Russian army has been doing much more quietly along other stretches of its border with Europe. – Wall Street Journal
Gerard Baker writes: Peace with honor is a goal frequently asserted and rarely achieved. More often it is a rhetorical device to cover a retreat: Neville Chamberlain deployed it after Munich in 1938, as did Richard Nixon in 1973, when he announced the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam. In both cases the result was neither peace nor honor but the surrender of millions of free people to tyranny. The U.S. didn’t start this war, and perhaps Mr. Trump is right that Russia wouldn’t have started it either if he had been president in 2022. But we still need to see it end in a way that serves our national interest. Part of that interest is preserving our honor. – Wall Street Journal
Syria
When rebel forces took over Syria, they pledged to unite the country’s disparate armed groups into a unified national army. The biggest challenge for them by far has been in northeastern Syria, an autonomous region run by the country’s Kurdish minority where suspicion of the new leadership runs deep. – New York Times
New Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa discussed last week his conditions for normalizing relations with Israel with Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), who was one of the first American lawmakers to visit the country since the overthrow of the Assad regime. – Jewish Insider
Ohad Merlin writes: If they are rejected, Israel will still benefit by having demonstrated its commitment to genuine, true peace – while exposing a leadership that is too fearful to acknowledge the legitimacy of Israel and the Jewish nation in front of its own people. A pragmatic, carefully conditioned approach to these diplomatic overtures presents Israel with a low-risk, potentially high-reward opportunity to reshape regional dynamics in its favor, while maintaining its security imperatives. – Jerusalem Post
Lebanon
The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group called on the government Monday to work harder to end Israel’s attacks in the country a day after an Israeli airstrike hit a suburb of Beirut. – Associated Press
Israel’s latest airstrike on what it called a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut’s southern suburbs came during increasing pressure for the Lebanese militant group to disarm. – Associated Press
Lebanon may be able to sign a so-called staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund within months, according to its economy minister, a step that would pave the way for talks over a funding package for the war-ravaged nation. – Bloomberg
Yemen
Yemen’s Houthis said a U.S. missile strike hit a migrant detention center overnight, killing at least 68 African migrants and injuring dozens more. – Washington Post
The U.S. imposed sanctions on Monday on three vessels and their owners for delivering oil and gas products to Yemen’s Houthis, as Washington piled pressure on the Iran-backed rebels over their attacks on Red Sea shipping. – Reuters
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is deeply alarmed by reports of strikes on a detention centre for African migrants in Yemen, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Monday. – Reuters
The United States has hit more than 800 targets in Yemen since mid-March, killing hundreds of Houthi rebel fighters, including members of the group’s leadership, the US military said Sunday. – Agence France-Presse
Yemen’s Houthis vowed to continue attacks in the Red and Arabian seas after a suspected US strike, the Iran-aligned group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a televised statement on Monday. – Jerusalem Post
Middle East & North Africa
A jet fighter fell off the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman and sank Monday when the ship made a sharp turn, defense officials said, the strike group’s third mishap during its extended deployment in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
Amine Ayoub writes: Finally, and most crucially, U.S. policymakers must articulate a clear vision: that defending allies, sea lanes, and international law in the Eastern Mediterranean is defending America’s own national interest. The lesson of the past decade is clear: Power vacuums do not stay empty. Either the United States leads in the Eastern Mediterranean or it will watch Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China carve it up. – Arutz Sheva
Mordechai Chaziza writes: However, China’s approach is not without challenges, as regional dynamics, strategic rivalries, and the enduring influence of Western powers continue to shape the trajectory of its partnerships. As China deepens its engagement, the sustainability and adaptability of its diplomatic model will be critical in determining its effectiveness in reshaping international relations. – The National Interest
Korean Peninsula
Russian President Vladimir Putin thanked North Korea Monday for fighting alongside his troops against Ukrainian forces and promised not to forget their sacrifices, hours after North Korea confirmed its deployment for the first time. – Associated Press
South Korea’s Supreme Court will make a ruling on Thursday after an appeal by prosecutors against a court decision to clear the former leader of the opposition Democratic Party Lee Jae-myung of violating the election law, the Yonhap news agency reported. – Reuters
James D. Kim writes: Their current disinterest stems from the belief that the global system still works, that the costs of proliferation remain prohibitively high, and that diplomacy and alliances provide a viable path to security. But if the international nonproliferation regime weakens, or if liberal democracies like Japan or Germany move toward nuclearization, their calculus could shift. Some advocates of the bomb in South Korea are already hoping that a second Trump administration might take a more permissive stance, tacitly endorsing ally-driven proliferation as part of a burden-sharing strategy. If that becomes reality, younger South Koreans may come to see nuclear weapons not as reckless, but as a legitimate, perhaps even prestigious, marker of great-power status. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
China
China and the Philippines have staked rival claims to a spit of land in the South China Sea, moves that could further inflame tensions in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. – Wall Street Journal
The battlefield mind-set has become the norm for a vast number of Chinese people engaged in the business of online selling to the United States. – New York Times
One went to the United States. The other went to China. It was a sign of the times. While the Swiss president was in Washington last week to lobby U.S. officials over President Donald Trump’s threatened 31% tariff on Swiss goods, the Swiss foreign minister was in Beijing, expressing his nation’s willingness to strengthen cooperation with China and upgrade a free trade agreement. – Associated Press
Four former Hong Kong lawmakers were freed from prison Tuesday after serving more than four years for their convictions under a Beijing-imposed security law that crushed a once-thriving pro-democracy movement. – Associated Press
China’s top diplomat warned countries against caving in to US tariff threats, as the Trump administration hints at the possible use of new trade tools to pressure Beijing. – Bloomberg
Zongyuan Zoe Liu writes: The scope of a deal between Washington and Beijing—and the concessions Trump can extract from Xi—has likely narrowed over the past month. If Trump wants to secure an agreement, he may have to join the Chinese people in “eating bitterness” and accept some tough compromises. But with a recalibrated diplomatic strategy, he could still claim some small victories—and avoid the massive potential losses now facing the United States. – Foreign Affairs
Walter Russell Mead writes: Any sign that Chinese aid to Pakistan could tilt the military or political balance against India would cause a crisis in New Delhi, and the Indians would look to America for support. Responding favorably to India’s requests might heighten the risk of nuclear war in South Asia, but an American failure to rally to India’s side at a critical moment would cause lasting harm to one of Washington’s critical relationships in the Indo-Pacific. Ugly dilemmas like that were commonplace in the Cold War. We must expect more of them as the world lurches toward Cold War II. – Wall Street Journal
South Asia
India must accelerate execution of nuclear projects, create awareness on their safety and build a strong list of vendors, according to an advisory committee meeting of the country’s power ministry held on Monday. – Reuters
Pakistan’s defence minister said on Monday a military incursion by neighbouring India was imminent in the aftermath of a deadly militant attack on tourists in Kashmir last week, as tensions rise between the two nuclear-armed nations. – Reuters
Hundreds of thousands of survivors desperately need humanitarian aid a month after Myanmar’s deadly earthquake, compounded by airstrikes the military government is reportedly carrying out despite ceasefires meant to aid relief efforts during the country’s civil war. – Associated Press
Pakistan said its army shot down an “Indian drone” that was trying to violate its airspace along the Line of Control, according to the country’s state-run television. – Newsweek
Sumit Ganguly writes: India faces significant hurdles in securing the LoC, owing to challenges of punishing terrain. But if it hopes to diminish the prospects of more terrorist attacks like the one targeting tourists last week, it will need to significantly strengthen its defenses. Otherwise, the tragedy in Pahalgam will hardly be the last. – Foreign Policy
Asia
The policy chief of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Monday called on U.S. President Donald Trump to reconsider his plans for reciprocal tariffs, saying they could negatively impact Indo-Pacific security. – Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is traveling to the Philippines on Tuesday seeking to further boost an alliance in the face of China’s growing assertiveness in the region. – Associated Press
Michael Gencher writes: The next government will shape more than just policy. It will shape how safe Jewish Australians feel in their own country. It will shape whether antisemitism is confronted or excused. It will shape whether Jewish voices are listened to or left behind. This election may be Australian, but its consequences are global. – Algemeiner
Michael Rossi writes: Given the geopolitical realities and rivalries, the EU would welcome the opportunity to push aside Russia’s and China’s influence in Central Asia. However, despite all the progress in EU-Central Asia relations, the EU is unlikely to displace either China or Russia in the region anytime soon. Both powers remain deeply entrenched—China as a dominant investor and trade partner, Russia as a security actor and cultural force. Still, the Samarkand Summit illustrates that the EU is serious about long-term engagement. – The National Interest
Europe
NATO can count on Berlin to step up its contribution to the defence of Europe as the Atlantic alliance faces a future more uncertain than 70 years ago when Germany became a member, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said on Monday. – Reuters
Germany has asked the European Commission for an exemption from European Union borrowing limits in order to increase defence spending in the coming years, according to a letter from German Finance Minister Joerg Kukies seen by Reuters on Monday. – Reuters
Inside a sprawling hangar in Spain, workers bolt together a fuselage for European aerospace giant Airbus, which churns out jets and other military equipment. The multinational conglomerate is a rarity in Europe’s defense industry, backed by Spain, Germany, France and Britain. – Associated Press
Any withdrawal of U.S. military aid to Ukraine could create serious difficulties for Europe, analysts and diplomats told The Associated Press. Kyiv’s ability to keep fighting would depend on European political will to muster money and weapons — and how quickly the gaps left by Washington can be filled. – Associated Press
Africa
Sudan’s notorious paramilitary group killed at least 30 people in an attack on Omdurman, the sister city of the capital, Khartoum, the authorities and an activist group said on Monday. – Associated Press
A U.N. panel of experts charged with monitoring sanctions in Sudan is investigating how mortar rounds exported from Bulgaria to the United Arab Emirates ended up in a supply convoy for Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia fighters, according to a letter seen by Reuters. – Reuters
Foreign ministers of military-ruled Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger said on Monday they endorse an initiative offering them access to global trade through Morocco’s Atlantic ports, Morocco’s state news agency reported. – Reuters
Editorial: President Donald Trump wants to be known as a peacemaker. Sudan might not be high on his priority list, but he should nevertheless pay attention. By helping to reach a peace agreement there, he could stop a genocide and end the world’s biggest humanitarian nightmare. – Washington Post
The Americas
Canada’s Liberal Party won a fourth term in office but appeared short of a majority in Parliament, which could force Prime Minister Mark Carney to seek help from rival politicians to push through an economic agenda designed to contain fallout from President Trump’s trade war. – Wall Street Journal
Foreign ministers from the BRICS group of developing nations met on Monday to discuss a shared defense of the global trade system, coordinating their response to the barrage of new tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Monday that Mexico would increase its water shipments to Texas to help make up a shortfall under a 1944 treaty that outlines water-sharing between the countries. – Reuters
Latin America
Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Monday that he sees greater momentum for ratification of the long-delayed trade agreement between the South American bloc Mercosur and the European Union as geopolitical and trade tensions grow. – Reuters
Gangs have attacked another town in Haiti’s central region, killing at least four people, including an 11-year-old child, a human rights activist told The Associated Press on Monday. – CNN
A Brazilian protester was reportedly sentenced to 14 years in jail for writing a message in lipstick on a statue during demonstrations in 2023. – Fox News
United States
A lawsuit filed in the Southern District of New York last month claims the leaders of several radical anti-Israel groups involved in 18 months of disruptive, violent and antisemitic protests on campuses and in the streets of New York City are “accountable for aiding and abetting Hamas’ continuing acts of international terrorism.” – Fox News
Frannie Block and Maya Sulkin write: While tracing the exact programs, initiatives, and departments these governments are funding is nearly impossible, it is notable that the universities exploding with anti-Israel protests have the strongest relationships with governments whose national interests are at direct odds with the United States. – The Free Press
Hal Brands writes: Perhaps the most sobering lesson regarding Cold War 2 is this: The future of that rivalry will depend on whether Donald Trump responsibly wages the great-power contest he declared almost a decade ago, or goes about wrecking those things we once expected a US president to defend. – Bloomberg
Juzel Lloyd writes: Developing nations may nonetheless decide to source nuclear energy technologies from China and Russia. But they need to be able to make a real choice. The United States and its allies still have a chance to counterbalance China’s and Russia’s expanding influence over the nuclear energy sector. The stakes are rising daily: the decisions that Washington and its allies make now, in the early days of a new nuclear age, will dictate the direction of energy security, the global economy, and the shape of power for decades to come. – Foreign Affairs
Cybersecurity
A massive power outage paralyzed Spain and Portugal on Monday in an incident with no immediate explanation. […]Portugal’s Lusa News Agency said the country’s cybersecurity center had seen no evidence so far that the blackout stemmed from a cyberattack. Separately, the Reuters news agency quoted unnamed officials as saying a cyberattack had not been ruled out – Washington Post
Ukrainian cloud provider De Novo said it had restored services after a power outage disrupted operations for customers including government agencies and major companies over the weekend. – The Record
Media conglomerate Urban One reported a data breach in recent days involving the personal information of employees and more. In breach notification letters filed in Texas and Massachusetts, the Maryland-based media company said the cyberattack began on February 13 and was initiated through “a sophisticated social engineering campaign.” – The Record
Defense
Defense technology firm Anduril Industries on Tuesday rolled out a lighter, more mobile version of its Pulsar electronic warfighter system, designed to track and take out enemy targets, including drone swarms. – Defense News
The Marines are slated to receive the first batches of four dozen mobile fires and missile platforms key to the Corps’ plans to fight dispersed across multiple islands alongside the Navy. – Defense News
The Marine Corps is more than halfway through receiving its most advanced radar system to date. So far, Northrop Grumman has delivered 35 of the AN/TPS-80 Ground/Air Task-Oriented Radar, or G/ATOR, systems to the service. – Defense News
Long War
As India has appeared to make a case for conducting a military strike on Pakistan in retaliation for the Kashmir attack, it has pointed to what it calls Pakistan’s past pattern of support for militant groups targeting India. – New York Times
A Swedish court sentenced four teenagers to prison on Monday for their involvement in a shooting attack that targeted an office of Israeli defense contractor Elbit Systems in Gothenburg last year. – Agence France-Presse
Seth Mandel writes: Which brings us to the larger point: Decolonization and settler-colonial ideologies are degradingly simplistic—and I mean that literally, in that these disciplines are degrading Western students’ ability to analyze anything containing moral complexity. They are a Get Out of Thinking Free card. They are also a clear danger to global security, justifying identity-based mass murder from Jewish kibbutzniks near Gaza to picnicking Hindu families in serene Himalayan meadows. – Commentary Magazine