Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russian officials are scrambling to enlist hundreds of thousands more troops for the war in Ukraine without angering the general public, but recruitment plans being pushed by military leaders are raising alarm among other government officials worried about an increasingly critical labor shortage in the civilian workforce, according to classified U.S. intelligence documents obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

Chinese leader Xi Jinping called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday, their first conversation since the Russian invasion more than a year ago, as Beijing attempts to portray itself as a potential peacemaker in the conflict. – Wall Street Journal

Heavy fighting continued on Wednesday in the western districts of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian city where the country’s defenders have been putting up stiff, costly resistance against Russia’s invasion forces for months. – Wall Street Journal

Nearly all the combat vehicles Ukraine’s Western allies promised to deliver in time for Kyiv’s expected spring counteroffensive have arrived, NATO’s top military commander said on Wednesday. – New York Times

Workers at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on Wednesday marked the 37th anniversary of the world’s worst nuclear disaster amid an ongoing war and nuclear threats, somberly laying flowers at a monument for victims. – Associated Press

The Ukrainian government on Wednesday launched a new initiative meant to streamline and promote innovation in the development of drones and other technologies that have been critical in the war with Russia. – Associated Press

Wearing video goggles, 1,000 newly Ukrainian-trained drone operators plan to fly swarms of small but deadly Chinese-made kamikaze drones across southeastern Ukraine’s front lines next month. This futuristic vision of warfare is not the nightmare of Russian military planners tossing in their sleep but of a Russian military blogger known as “Russian Engineer.” – New York Sun

Undeterred by several setbacks at the United Nations, Russia is planning to secure a seat next year on the world body’s top human rights organ, several diplomats are telling the Sun. – New York Sun

Ukraine could make “very effective” use of so-called cluster munitions that the United States has declined to provide, according to the top U.S. military officer in Europe. – Washington Examiner

The U.S. pursued a “wrong” nuclear policy that led to war in Europe, according to an adviser to the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office. – Newsweek

Russian state media have reported in recent days that three downed drones have been found near Moscow. The Kremlin-backed news outlets said that one of these drones was a Ukrainian-made UJ-22 Airborne, which was allegedly equipped with explosives when it was found Sunday in a forest about 19 miles from Moscow. – Newsweek

Belarusian troops have been training to use nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles as Moscow reportedly seeks to distract Ukrainian troops at the country’s northern border. – Newsweek

Personal resentment and a desire for revenge were the driving factors behind Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine last February, an investigation has claimed. – Newsweek

Russia’s ground forces have been damaged by the war in Ukraine, but many other elements of its military have remained unscathed, the general in charge of U.S. forces in Europe said Wednesday. – Military.com

Adam Taylor writes: And when the war does finally end, Ukraine will be looking for new economic partners to help it rebuild and replace the trade it once had with its giant neighbor. China, the world’s second largest economy, may be too big to alienate now. Unless the United States and its allies can offer an alternative, Ukraine has little choice but to accept the risks. – Washington Post

Michael O’Hanlon, Constanze Stelzenmüller, and David Wessel write: The war in Ukraine may be the first truly modern war, in which digital capabilities have transformed the dynamics on the ground as well as the international response. Ordinary citizens have documented actions in real time with mobile phones. Satellite imagery has helped collect evidence of war crimes. Public web services have provided platforms for information-sharing on the frontlines. – Washington Post

Mark T. Kimmitt writes: This campaign alone won’t end the war, but at a minimum it must inflict a massive defeat on Russian forces, in full view of the Russian people. It must take key terrain necessary for prosecuting follow-on campaigns. It must show the allies that Ukraine is a winnable war that won’t drag on for years, and one worth continued investment to achieve Mr. Zelensky’s aims. The coming counteroffensive will be a bloody, brutal series of battles, likely the largest to date, but its success will change the course of the war. – Wall Street Journal

Stephen Blank writes: Thus, these assessments reveal a government and alliance adrift on the seas of mounting wars and crises. While we must act to prevent a recurrence of such intelligence disasters; we must also act to advance our interests and values, and those of our allies. Neither other governments, nor history, will forgive us if we fail to rise to this occasion. – The Hill

Hugo Blewett-Mundy writes: Western leaders would do well to open their ears to the voices of those, like the Poles, who understand what lies behind Russia’s grimly familiar and bloody excursions into neighboring lands. Poland and its neighbors will no doubt be happy to share their stories. Otherwise, the cycle of Russian aggression will continue ad nauseam. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Julia Davis writes: While Maria Zakharova, of Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, says she cannot remember Gershkovich’s name, none of Russia’s government officials and talking heads seem to experience the same memory lapse with Tucker Carlson — for reasons that are all too apparent. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Michael Starr writes: The Russian military is only in political strife with PMCs, and it is speculative and perhaps too far, as the National Resistance Center predicts, that there will be a civil war between these Russian warlords. However, it can not be denied that PMCs backed by companies, oligarchs and individual politicians are becoming major players in Russia’s foreign affairs.  It is possible that their roles will grow domestically as well. – Jerusalem Post

Afghanistan

The U.N. Security Council is set to vote on Thursday to condemn a ban on Afghan women working for the United Nations in Afghanistan and call upon the Taliban administration to “swiftly reverse” its crackdown on the rights of women and girls. – Reuters

The United States was not involved in the Taliban’s killing of the ISIS-Khorasan leader who was responsible for the Aug. 26, 2021, bombing at the Kabul airport that killed 13 U.S. service members and roughly 170 Afghan civilians, according to U.S. officials. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: State says sharing the cable and the writers’ identities risks “chilling” diplomats from using the dissent channel. Yet it continues to balk even after Mr. McCaul offered to view the cable in a classified setting with names redacted. The Republican has twice pushed back his subpoena deadline in a good-faith effort to get State’s cooperation. Litigation may be next. The White House wants Americans to forget the Afghan tragedy, but voters deserve to know the truth about an episode that will harm U.S. interests for years to come. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Biden made a political decision that he wanted the U.S. out of Afghanistan at any cost. ISIS is now taking predictable advantage of his folly. How long will it be before a successful terrorist attack on the West is traced back to Afghanistan? It is a terrible question to have to ask, but Biden has made it impossible not to. – Washington Examiner

Marvin G. Weinbaum writes: Many will argue that the loosening or dropping of sanctions will reward the Taliban and contribute to strengthening the regime. But much as we might prefer to see regime change in Afghanistan, for the foreseeable future a reasonably stable and sufficiently capable Taliban government is needed to help facilitate humanitarian programs, neutralize ISKP, and avert state collapse and civil war. A course correction that breaks new ground in U.S.-Afghan relations by shaking off much of the established thinking about engaging the Taliban is best designed to further American security and strategic interests as well as the wellbeing of the Afghan people. – Middle East Institute 

Middle East & North Africa

A dual Lebanese-Belgian citizen accused by the United States of financing Lebanon’s Hezbollah has been extradited from Romania and faced sanctions evasion and money laundering charges on Wednesday in Brooklyn federal court, prosecutors said. – Reuters

Egypt’s economy will grow 4.0% this fiscal year and 4.5% next even as it endures a continuing depreciation in its currency, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, in line with a government forecast for the current year. – Reuters

Benjamin Freedman writes: But in addition to improving adaptation and mitigation measures across the Global South, governments should be prepared to reform national immigration processes to manage an impending rise in climate refugees. It is time for the world to deal with the fact that climate displacement may soon increasingly impact the socio-economic and demographic realities of the wider MENA region. After all, the effects will not remain localized. The fallout will also be felt by the countries that receive growing numbers of climate refugees. – Middle East Institute

Zalman Shoval writes: A Middle Eastern official said: “The US is perceived as leaving the Middle East and China fills the void, China becomes the winner here.” This isn’t, however, as everyone in Washington sees it and as one source quoted in Politico noted: “The Biden administration, which has openly worried about China’s growing clout in the Middle East, has met this development with a shrug.” – Jerusalem Post

Hamdi Malik and Michael Knights write: This reinforces our longstanding assessment from January 2022 that Akram Kaabi has inherited the anti-U.S. resistance part of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis’ portfolio, while Abu Fadak has focused on his role as chief of staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The third aspect of Muhandis’ portfolio – organizing  Shia politics – is still up for grabs, with Qais al-Khazali, Nouri al-Maliki and Hadi al-Ameri scrambling for top-spot, with Khazali in the lead. – Washington Institute

China

American spy services detected construction at a suspected Chinese military facility in the United Arab Emirates in December — one year after Washington’s oil-rich ally announced it was halting the project because of U.S. concerns, according to top-secret intelligence documents obtained by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

China rewrote its law against espionage to tighten state control over a wider swath of data and digital activities, an expansion of its power to neutralize perceived foreign threats that raises the risks for businesses operating in the world’s second-largest economy. – Wall Street Journal

China’s Maritime Safety Administration said on Wednesday that a military exercise will be conducted in some areas of the South China Sea on April 27 between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. (0100 GMT to 0500 GMT). It gave no further information. – Reuters

China will continue to firmly support Central Asian countries in safeguarding their independence and territorial integrity, its foreign ministry said, after a senior Chinese envoy in Europe raised an uproar by questioning the sovereignty of those states. – Reuters

Editorial: China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, has eliminated the public space for reformist and liberal views and demanded strict loyalty to the party line. But in earlier years, China was more open to reform ideas, and Mr. Dong co-edited a book in 1998 that contained essays from pro-reform scholars calling for a more transparent and independent judiciary, which he also advocated in the pages of Guangming Daily. – Washington Post

Josh Rogin writes: Yes, the United States should seek engagement and competition with China simultaneously. But Beijing is trying to force Biden to prioritize the former over the latter. The problem with going along is that until the United States addresses China’s economic aggression, it can expect neither fair competition nor security. – Washington Post

Minxin Pei writes: That might start with an official invitation for Yellen to visit. In addition, China can send a new ambassador to Washington without further delay and restore back-channel communications with the US. Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, can meet in a neutral venue to explore further options for cooling tensions, paving the way for a phone call or a summit between Biden and Xi. Any pause will be fragile and vulnerable to unexpected events, of course. But, if both sides really do want a better relationship, it’s time they did more than talk about it. – Bloomberg

Zack Smith writes: Regardless, China’s brazen establishment of illegal overseas police stations within the United States calls for those participating in this scheme to be prosecuted and for Congress and intelligence officials to thoroughly evaluate how else China might be covertly trying to exert its influence within the United States. – Washington Examiner 

Tyler Jost writes: This places tremendous pressure on Xi to put all the pieces together himself. And this imperative might help to explain the balloon blunder: Xi may have approved a general policy for balloon reconnaissance, perhaps years ago, with limited debate about the ways such a policy could backfire in the future. The possibility of such miscalculations in the coming years should be cause for concern for U.S. policymakers. The Chinese military may tell Xi that it is ready for war, and a catastrophe could ensue if the rest of the bureaucracy is institutionally prevented from checking the military’s math. – Foreign Affairs

Dale Aluf writes: In advancing multipolarity, Beijing seeks to counter perceived US efforts to contain China by reducing the power of the American-dominated institutions that form the backbone of the postwar system. If successful, China will have more freedom to pursue its national interests in its traditional sphere of influence and in further flung regions like the Middle East. – Jerusalem Post

Europe

Swedish manufacturer Saab has strongly hinted at a wave of future military sales once Sweden enters NATO and on the basis that increased defense spending across Europe will continue long term as a response to Russian intimidation. – Breaking Defense

Businesses in the United Kingdom are likely to face increased costs as a result of the European Union’s new Cyber Resilience Act (CRA), a parliamentary committee has warned, despite a similar law already in place for British businesses. – The Record

Matthew Brooker writes: It would be unwise for Britain to continue further down this road. Perhaps it’s time for politicians to start biting their tongues and moderating their language a little. That could begin with the Rwanda decision, whatever the outcome. – Bloomberg

Alexander J. Motyl writes: Either way, Orban will lose and find a place on what the Soviets called the “ash heap of history.” The only way to snatch survival from the jaws of humiliation would be for Orban to repudiate his vision now. Ironically, an about-face of this kind might be just the thing for a populist opportunist like Hungary’s illiberal prime minister. – The Hill

Erik Gartzke writes: Macron has laid heavy hints that the United States has overstayed its welcome in Europe. Other leaders are more polite, but their sentiment is also clear. America can afford to be gracious in response. As tensions in Eastern Europe abate in the aftermath of the Russo-Ukraine war, there will be an opportunity for the United States to refocus and streamline its security commitments in Europe. Doing so will free up resources and reduce liabilities on both sides of the Atlantic. – The National Interest

The Americas

Cuba increasingly is turning to Russia and Mexico for oil to ease an acute shortage of diesel and gasoline and supplement dwindling supplies of Venezuelan crude and fuel, according to shipping data and sources. – Reuters

Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday replaced seven of his ministers, hours after asking his entire cabinet to resign due to his difficulties in pushing ambitious reforms through Congress. – Agence France-Presse

Editorial: This is a rebuke to Mr. Biden, who called Mr. Petro a champion of democracy in his White House visit: “I really want to thank you for your outspoken and strong commitment to peace and human rights across the Americas. You speak to it all the time.” Except, apparently, on Tuesdays. – Wall Street Journal

Mateo Haydar writes: The last time that another threat network ally governed Peru, a Chinese state-owned company was able to secure access to a deep-sea mega-port that is key to Beijing’s Pacific naval ambitions, and Peru became another one of China’s “comprehensive strategic partners.” – Washington Examiner

Richard M. Sanders writes: Mexico, of course, is not likely to greet a restart of an aggressive counternarcotics effort with great enthusiasm. Action against the cartels will cost lives and treasure, and require patience. The initial goal must be simply to keep the cartels’ power and their capacity to produce fentanyl and other drugs from increasing. But Mexico may come to realize—hopefully before it is too late—that simply letting the cartels have their way and expand further will impose far higher costs, and indeed may let the country drift toward failed state status in large areas of its territory. On both sides of the Rio Grande, realism is in order. – The National Interest

Defense

The U.S. Army is assessing its future distribution of radios and related gear that provide vital links to far-flung soldiers in both the Indo-Pacific and Europe. – Defense News

For five days, a U.S. consulate in the tiny country of Obsidian had been surrounded by protestors who were upset with the American presence in their coastal nation. Fomented by an armed opposition group, the situation for the State Department staff, Marine guards and Americans in the region had become increasingly unstable. – USNI News

The Army is altering its acquisition approach for its long-range cyber, electronic warfare and signals intelligence platform, determining it might need a tailored approach for each theater, according to a top official. – CyberScoop

Boeing disclosed today that its KC-46A Pegasus tanker incurred a new $245 million charge in the first quarter of 2023, driving a $211 million loss for the company’s defense sector saddled with fixed-price development contracts. – Breaking Defense