Fdd's overnight brief

April 27, 2022

In The News

Russia

Unexplained fires at strategic locations in Russia, including a sensitive defense research site and the country’s largest chemical plant, have raised suspicions of some kind of sabotage despite no evidence that most were not accidental. – Washington Post 

Alina Kabaeva, a famed Russian gymnast turned apparent romantic partner of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is a potential target for sanctions, the Biden administration said, after questions were raised this week about the lack of penalties against her. – Washington Post 

Russia’s state-controlled gas company, Gazprom, said Wednesday it had shut off the supply of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, a move that marks a significant escalation in the economic tension between Moscow and the West over the war in Ukraine. – Washington Post  

Billionaire Moshe Kantor has severed his longstanding ties to Tel Aviv University — joining a growing list of Russian Jewish oligarchs who have scaled back their philanthropic activities after coming under international sanctions for their ties to President Vladimir Putin. – Associated Press  

Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed “in principle” to U.N. and International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) involvement in the evacuation of civilians from a besieged steel plant in Ukraine’s southern city of Mariupol, the United Nations said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

The Kremlin is considering a plan to suspend regional elections set for September amid concerns about growing social tension due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies, according to people familiar with the discussions. – Bloomberg 

Editorial: Worst is the way Biden keeps buying the Russians’ bluster about potential nuclear war, which led him to personally veto the transfer of MiG fighters from Poland to Ukraine after both Blinken and Austin had signed off. At this point, the world will be better off if the president just let Austin and Blinken not just speak for the United States, but run the entire US response to Vladimir Putin’s war. – New York Post 

David Ignatius writes: Superpowers sometimes lose ill-considered wars. That happened to the United States in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and it might be Russia’s fate in Ukraine. The exit ramp surely must look more attractive to Putin now than it did several months ago. – Washington Post 

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian and Steven Zaslavsky write: And even for the multinational companies that previously drew significant revenue from Russia, investors are clearly much more concerned with the far more important reputational risk of funding the Putin regime and with the potential for large-scale corporate boycotts around the world. In other words, the far more dangerous financial threat to shareholders is remaining in Russia — not with writing off Russian assets. Those companies that have stayed their course should take note. – Washington Post   

Rebecca Grant writes: Still, to my mind, Austin is the first U.S. defense secretary who has a chance to do more than deter Russia. If Ukraine defeats Russia’s invading forces, Austin can reset U.S. and NATO security for a generation. Plenty of challenges remain, like Russia’s expanding nuclear arsenal and their ties to China. On that point, Austin’s new goal of weakening Russian forces  – and hampering Russia’s efforts to rebuild its military losses – pays off double. […]Maybe this is the Austin doctrine – weakening Russia’s military to enhance world security. – Fox News 

Judith Miller writes: Despite over two months of trying to bloody and bomb Ukraine into submission to prevent its strategic drift to the west, Vladimir Putin may soon face one of his worst strategic nightmares: the NATO alliance he despises is about to get larger and stronger. And not a minute too soon. – Fox News 

Joseph Bosco writes: To date, despite the horrors that have transpired, the Biden administration and the NATO alliance it leads refuse not only to become directly involved, but even to provide all the weapons systems Ukraine desperately needs to defend itself, such as fighter aircraft. […]Strategic ambiguity failed catastrophically for Ukraine. Biden must immediately replace it with strategic clarity for Taiwan if it is not to suffer the same tragic fate. – The Hill 

Donald Kirk writes: Still, neither Taylor nor Negroponte believes the U.S. and its NATO allies should risk a much wider war by challenging the Russians directly in aerial combat. Instead, they agree NATO should pump in the weaponry Ukraine needs to stave off the Russians, just as China and Russia did for the North Vietnamese. – The Daily Beast 

Iran

Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed Tuesday there is an “ongoing threat” against past and present American officials by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, just weeks after reports revealed the State Department is paying millions of dollars to protect former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from threats. – New York Post 

The White House is worried Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in weeks, press secretary Jen Psaki said on Tuesday, after Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted earlier in the day the country has accelerated its nuclear program. – Reuters 

A long-awaited nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran will “do nothing” to enhance security in the Middle East, a senior Senate Democrat told Secretary of State Antony Blinken. – Washington Examiner 

The US is moving toward ending its efforts to return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, as Tehran continues to make demands without showing a willingness to consider concessions, Israeli diplomatic sources said on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post 

Israelis believe that the American attempt at renewing the Iran deal is now on its deathbed. Americans say reviving it remains their goal. – New York Sun 

Editorial: Western officials began saying in December that reviving the 2015 deal would become pointless within “weeks” amid Iranian nuclear advances. Weeks have come and gone. There are many reasons for the White House to walk away from talks with Iran, but the lack of meaningful verification is at the top of the list. – Wall Street Journal 

Masih Alinejad writes: Tehran’s continuing war against the victims of political violence is a reminder of the dismal state of the human rights situation in Iran — even as Western countries prepare to return to the negotiating table for nuclear talks with the regime. The West chose to overlook the evil nature of the Taliban and Vladimir Putin — with consequences that should now be apparent. It shouldn’t make the same mistake with Iran. – Washington Post 

Kasra Aarabi and Saeid Golkar write: Simply paying attention to their own words could be enough. No one knows for sure if Khamenei truly means the apocalyptic words he uses. Our point is simply that it would be unwise to assume he doesn’t because the evidence is that it is a deep article of faith for him. In the words of the great 13th Century Iranian poet Saadi Shirazi “I bring the message, whether it give thee counsel or offense.” – Washington Institute 

Jason M. Brodsky writes: In the end, Tehran has been employing the same playbook for over a year—dragging out the negotiations with world powers to advance its nuclear program while shortening and weakening the existing Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and in the process attempting to notch a stronger agreement for itself through non-nuclear demands like the delisting of the IRGC as an FTO. Instead of inventing “creative” solutions to appease Tehran’s extorters, it’s time for policymakers in the United States and Europe to accept the IRGC for what it is—a foreign terrorist organization in its entirety. – The National Interest 

Syria

Four Syrian soldiers were killed and three wounded early on Wednesday in an Israeli missile attack on positions near Damascus, Syria’s defence ministry said. – Reuters 

An Israeli military has crashed in Syria, an IDF spokesperson said Tuesday. According to the spokesperson, the drone fell during a routine operation. The incident is under investigation. – Arutz Sheva 

Daniel Serwer and Koen van Wijk write: Unless one or the other force risks a major new offensive, the current situation is likely to continue. Undefeated, Assad enjoys political and economic normalization with Arab states that once sought his downfall. He is militarily and economically constrained from pushing north, as is Turkey from pushing south. The risks of either move would be substantial. The SDF is unable to recover territory from Turkey. The Americans, Russians, Israelis, and Iranians accept the current stalemate. For lack of better, Syria will continue to suffer. – Middle East Institute 

Turkey

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Turkey have officially launched talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which is expected to double trade between the two nations, Emirati trade minister Thani al Zeyoudi tweeted on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit Saudi Arabia on Thursday and meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, two sources with information on the matter told Reuters, as Ankara tries to mend ties with Riyadh after dropping a legal case on the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. – Reuters  

Turkish Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said the U.S. and Germany have no right to comment on Turkey’s judiciary regarding a prison sentence against philanthropist Osman Kavala and seven others over nationwide protests in 2013. – Reuters 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: The pro-Iran militias want Ankara to stay closer to the border. Turkey recently hosted a Kurdish leader from the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). This appeared as a prelude to Turkey’s new operation. Iran has increasingly targeted the Kurdish capital of Erbil in the KRG. Shi’ite militias of the PMUs also target Kurds. – Jerusalem Post 

Soner Cagaptay and Rich Outzen write: Even if Turkey’s involvement in Ukraine does realign Turkish foreign policy closer to the West, there is the risk for Erdogan that Biden, and some European leaders, may be so anxious to be rid of him that they postpone any rapprochement with Ankara until after the 2023 election. […]At the same time, while the drones have given Turkey the ability to punch above its weight in global politics, should its economy experience a further meltdown—driven by a showdown with Putin or simply because markets will avoid a country in which rule of law has become a joke—Erdogan will have squandered Ankara’s newfound clout and his own political future. – Foreign Affairs 

Israel

An Israeli parliamentary committee has sanctioned a breakaway member of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s party, handing a small political victory to the Israeli leader as he seeks to stabilize his fragile government and deter any other rebel lawmakers. – Associated Press 

A video of what appears to be Israelis fighting for Ukraine has been circulating on social media since Sunday, as Russia’s invasion has entered into its third month. – Jerusalem Post 

In a February 15, 2022 article in the Egyptian daily Al-Ahram, former Egyptian MP Dr. Mostafa El-Feki came out against the notion that Arab and Muslim denial of the Jewish Holocaust does not help the Palestinian cause, noting that the Holocaust is a proven historical fact and that its denial arouses contempt in the West and presents the deniers as accomplices in the Holocaust. – Middle East Media Research Institute 

Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet write: To ameliorate the exigency of Israel’s drift away from Washington, Biden must ensure that his administration is substantially more in tune with Israel’s national security fears and “survival-at-all-costs” DNA. It is imperative, therefore, that the U.S. fully partner with Israel in resolving all of its existential concerns. If not, Israel — the Middle East’s only true democracy — increasingly will be under pressure to seek accommodation from Moscow and Beijing. – The Hill 

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Under the guise of supporting Palestinians, the overall trend is now one of male aggression, support for militarism, and chauvinism wrapped in nationalist, far-right, religious extremist rhetoric. While support for Palestinians was once supposedly a left-wing cause supporting “human rights,” “two states” and “peace,” the trend now is the apparent abandonment of any such peaceful pretenses. – Jerusalem Post 

Lebanon

Lebanon’s cabinet ordered the military court on Tuesday to investigate the capsize of a migrant boat after colliding with a naval vessel giving chase, with at least six dead and dozens missing. – Reuters 

France and Saudi Arabia announced a joint development fund for crisis-hit Lebanon Tuesday, pledging an initial $30 million to support food security and the country’s crippled health sector, a French embassy statement said. – Reuters 

David Daoud writes: As with all purported solutions for Lebanon’s woes, skepticism is warranted. Lebanese activists and politicians have a track record of promising change while failing to deliver. Nor is curtailing Hezbollah’s freedom of action, or even disarming and disbanding the group in its entirety, a panacea for all that ails Lebanon. The country’s problems run much deeper, and the group’s existence is a mere symptom, rather than their cause. – Times of Israel  

Middle East & North Africa

A Tunisian judge detained seven crew members of a commercial ship that sank off the coast of the southern city of Gabes this month, a judicial official said on Wednesday, as authorities investigated whether the ship may have been deliberately sunk. – Reuters 

Libya’s Parliament-appointed prime minister, Fathi Bashagha, discussed with U.S. senior officials efforts to hold timely and transparent elections and to “establish economic and political security,” he said in a tweet early on Wednesday. – Reuters 

Egypt’s president ordered sweeping measures to help the nation overcome the current economic challenges, including moves to list military-owned firms on the stock market and boost private sector participation in state-run businesses. – Bloomberg 

David Pollock writes: Yet Israel remains even more unpopular than Iran among Jordanians today. A mere 10 percent or so, young and old alike, have even a “somewhat” favorable opinion about the late 2020 Abraham Accords between Israel and four other Arab states (the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan). And the same very low percentage of Jordanians agree, a quarter-century after their own formal peace with Israel, that “people who want to have business or sports contact with Israelis should be allowed to do so.” Clearly, the recent warming of official Jordanian-Israeli relations has not trickled down to the grass-roots level. – Washington Institute 

Kenneth M. Pollack writes: Today, there are far more questions than answers about warfare. […]The clear understanding of the Middle East’s military balance that once underlay its relative stability is disintegrating before the winds of new technological and strategic change. And so everyone should brace themselves for a hurricane of future conflict in a region that needs no more. – Foreign Affairs 

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping has told officials to ensure that the country’s economic growth outpaces the U.S.’s this year, according to people familiar with the discussions, even as its economy  sags under its worst Covid-19 outbreak since the pandemic began. – Wall Street Journal 

A United Nations team has landed in China ahead of a long-delayed visit by the U.N. human rights chief to Xinjiang, where rights groups and some Western governments allege the Chinese government is committing genocide and serious abuses against Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities. – Associated Press 

Heavy-handed government action, self-censorship and physical threats against journalists have left Hong Kong’s media freedoms in a “dire” state, a UK-based campaign group said Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse  

China has cautioned the United Nations not to allow its top human rights official to be exploited for political gain as its advance team landed this week ahead of a planned visit to Xinjiang. – Newsweek 

Editorial: The strategic and military challenge to the U.S. and its allies is taking place across the world, and China’s advance in the South Pacific won’t be the last example of a country attempting to exploit the West’s preoccupation with Ukraine. Expect more turbulence as the war in Europe drags on. – Wall Street Journal 

Shiran Victoria Shen, Jean C. Oi, Yi Cui, and Liang Min write: Last but not least, we are hopeful about the future of U.S.-China cooperation on climate change and believe that universities can play a significant role in the global energy transition. Universities are often the birthplaces of innovative technology, training grounds for talent from across the globe, as well as conveners of bilateral and multilateral dialogues. We hope the governments on both sides of the Pacific will work together to hammer out the needed details to build the momentum and make a real impact in the fight against global climate change. – The Hill 

South Asia

A deputy U.S. national security adviser recently came to New Delhi to press India to take a more forceful stance against Russia over the Ukraine war. His meeting with the Indian foreign secretary was cordial, stressing the strong ties between Washington and New Delhi. – Wall Street Journal 

A woman suicide bomber from a Pakistan separatist group killed four people, including three Chinese nationals, in an attack on a minibus carrying staff from the Confucius Institute at Karachi University on Tuesday. – Agence France-Presse  

A U.S. panel has recommended that the State Department designate 15 nations, including India and Russia, as “countries of particular concern” for violating religious freedoms. – The Hill 

Andy Mukherjee writes: India’s domestic gas production is tiny, and it has shrunk by 40% over the past nine years. Keeping that base narrow with unsustainable pricing and erecting on top of it a national edifice of unviable city distribution franchises wasn’t a financially prudent move. The dream of cheap gas couldn’t have lasted anyway, all that the war in Ukraine may have done is to end it abruptly. – Bloomberg 

Shashi Tharoor writes: India, like France, will always cherish a prickly independence, but also like France, it cannot easily do without “the free world,” because the enemies of freedom are its own enemies, too. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has indeed opened up new fault lines that prompt clear strategic choices. India—and other nations far away from Ukraine but falling under China’s shadow—will have to make choices in their own interest that they have so far preferred to evade. – Foreign Affairs 

Asia

A court sentenced Myanmar’s ousted civilian leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, to five years in prison on Wednesday after finding her guilty of corruption for accepting about $1.3 million in gold bars and cash from a close political ally. – New York Times 

Australia’s spy chief says Canberra is concerned Chinese police deployed to the Solomon Islands under a new security pact could use “ruthless” techniques previously used to quell anti-government protests in Hong Kong. – Reuters 

Taiwan’s main military drills this year will draw on the experiences of the war in Ukraine, focusing on asymmetric and cognitive warfare as well as use of reserves as it practices fighting off a Chinese attack, a top officer said on Wednesday. – Reuters 

China protested Wednesday against the sailing of a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer through the Taiwan Strait the previous day, accusing the American side of hyping the maneuver. – Associated Press 

Japan needs a “substantial” increase in military spending next year, a former defense minister said, as he prepared to submit a ruling party research group’s national security proposals to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. – Bloomberg 

Europe

The United States’ top defense officials on Tuesday urged more nations to provide more weaponry, at a faster pace, to Ukraine as it prepares for the next phase of its defense against Russian aggressors. – Washington Post 

Moldova said it was placing its security forces on alert Tuesday following a series of explosions in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Russian enclave that has stirred concern over the role that some 1,500 Russian troops stationed there could play in shoring up Moscow’s military campaign in neighboring Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal 

Lawmakers said they were prepared to quickly approve another package funding weapons and economic aid for Ukraine, as the U.S. shifted to a longer-term commitment to back Kyiv to fend off Russia’s invasion. – Wall Street Journal 

Mr. Macron’s next five years in office will require a more conciliatory approach. The 44 year-old former investment banker knows that many people who voted to re-elect him in France’s presidential runoff on Sunday were casting votes against far-right leader Marine Le Pen, not for him. Voters, lawmakers and even the president himself say he needs to ditch his heavy-handed approach and rebuild consensus across a country that has become deeply polarized along economic and generational lines. – Wall Street Journal  

Oil and gasoline prices are climbing. Energy company profits are surging. President Biden, who came into office promising to reduce the use of fossil fuels, has effectively joined the “drill, baby, drill” chorus. Europe would love to end its dependence on Russia. – New York Times 

One Ukrainian anti-tank weapon, Stugna-P, destroyed four Russian tanks in a row in Kharkiv, according to videos shared on social media. – Business Insider  

An independent monitor of Britain’s use of surveillance cameras has asked for the government to clarify its positions on buying equipment from a Chinese technology company accused of involvement in human rights abuses. – Associated Press 

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with top military officials from over 40 nations at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. The meeting comes as Russia’s invasion enters its third month, and Moscow launches an effort in the eastern part of the country. – The Hill  

The U.K. and U.S. said they’re seeking to work quickly to tighten trade ties even as discussions on a free trade accord remain frozen. – Bloomberg 

The Russian military has launched over 1,300 missiles in Ukraine since beginning its invasion over two months ago, according to Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar. – Newsweek 

Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.K. Vadym Prystaiko has warned that Russia is “one step away” from deploying nuclear weapons to the Crimean peninsula, seized and annexed by Moscow in 2014 at the start of its eight-year long aggression against Ukraine. – Newsweek 

Muslim activists in Germany who chanted antisemitic slogans at a pro-Palestinian demonstration in Berlin last Saturday were motivated not by a personal connection to the conflict, but by their exposure to bigoted religious and media messages, a leading Middle Eastern expert on Islamism said on Tuesday. – Algemeiner 

Spain’s intelligence service CNI had court approval to spy on Catalan separatist figures, AFP reported on Tuesday, citing the El Pais newspaper. – Arutz Sheva 

Josh Rogin writes: A decade ago, I interviewed a Czech foreign minister named Karel Schwarzenberg, who warned that Putin intended to restore imperial Russia by any means necessary and that the West was being too complacent about it. Now, the new Czech government, led by a new generation, is sounding a similar alarm — this time about China. The United States and the rest of Europe would be wise to heed it. – Washington Post 

Bing West writes: Having conceded control of the air, the odds of Ukraine taking back the cities held by the Russians are low, and approach zero without massive artillery. Ukraine doesn’t have the weapons or stockpiles of munitions for the slugfest that has begun. The U.S. and NATO must urgently provide $40 billion in military aid, not $4 billion. – Wall Street Journal 

Brock Bierman writes: Ukraine is a shining beacon of democracy for the world. It deserves to continue to exist. And if Ukraine is victorious, it will show the world that authoritarians will lose when confronted with a freedom-loving people and global allies who refuse to stand aside when crimes against humanity are committed. It’s time to say, “never again” — and mean it. – The Hill 

William Courtney and Peter A. Wilson write: Few goals mistakenly scored into a team’s own net rival Russia’s errors in reviving NATO. The Alliance is putting permanent, not just rotating, forces in its eastern flank. This summer Finland and Sweden may join NATO. Perhaps not since the collapse of the USSR has European security been so challenged. But Ukraine and its Western partners are showing that aggression in Europe may not pay. – The Hill 

Andreas Kluth writes: Extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures. The West trusts NATO to protect it from bullies. That credits the alliance not only with military prowess but also with procedural nimbleness when it matters. NATO could send no stronger message than to become a club of 32 on June 30, 2022 — only four months after Putin began committing the worst of his many atrocities. – Bloomberg 

Africa

Mali on Tuesday accused the French army of “spying” and “subversion” when it used a drone to film what France alleged was mercenaries burying bodies near a military base. – Agence France-Presse 

Up to 550 Ethiopian peacekeepers working in Sudan have sought asylum rather than return home for fear they will be persecuted due to their Tigrayan ethnicity, an official with direct knowledge of the plan said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

At least one police officer was killed and several wounded in an attack on a police station in north Benin, an area affected by a spillover of militant activity in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, two police sources said on Tuesday. – Reuters 

Latin America

Venezuela’s government-controlled National Assembly on Tuesday appointed the justices who’ll comprise a new slimmed down Supreme Court, many of them holdovers from the previous court, in a nod to overhauling a judicial system that’s long been criticized for its lack of independence. – Bloomberg 

Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez said the country should hold primaries to select a candidate to rival Nicolas Maduro in the 2024 presidential elections before the end of the year. – Bloomberg 

Governments in Latin America should provide targeted and temporary fiscal support to help poor families cope with higher food and energy prices and reduce the risk of social unrest from soaring inflation, according to the International Monetary Fund. – Bloomberg 

Nicaragua said on Tuesday the state would take possession of the headquarters of the Organization of American States (OAS) in Managua, two days after the Central American country exited the group and expelled some of its members. – Reuters 

North America

The U.S. Supreme Court questioned President Joe Biden’s effort to rescind his predecessor’s “remain in Mexico” policy, which has forced tens of thousands of asylum-seekers to stay south of the border while their applications are processed. – Bloomberg 

Canada plans to give itself the power to seize the assets of sanctioned Russian individuals and companies and use them to compensate victims of the war in Ukraine. – Bloomberg 

Daleep Singh, the White House official who has spearheaded U.S. sanctions against Russia, plans to take a leave of absence, according to a person familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg 

Cybersecurity

A top European Union regulator cautioned that social-media giant Twitter Inc. will need to follow the bloc’s new rules for tackling illegal and harmful content online if it wants to keep operating there, marking a possible challenge to Elon Musk’s plans to take a more hands-off approach to content moderation. – Wall Street Journal 

The State Department has announced it is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information on a group of Russian cybercriminals. – The Hill 

Tenet Healthcare Corp., one of the largest U.S. for-profit hospital companies, said a “cybersecurity incident” last week disrupted some acute-care operations. – Bloomberg 

Jeff Bezos has asked if Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s leveraged buyout of Twitter will give China influence over the social media company. – TIME 

Human rights advocates are alarmed by looming United Nations negotiations to hammer out a cybercrime treaty that they say could give governments unprecedented power to criminalize free speech and use the Internet to violate citizens’ privacy. – Cyberscoop 

Perry Bacon Jr. writes: So I’m not sure what will happen to Twitter. But I’m confident that the people who have spent years using it to get smarter and more engaged aren’t going to stop now. Elon Musk should operate something that closely resembles today’s Twitter or else the real talent of Twitter — its users — is likely to build the value of someone else’s platform. – Washington Post 

Defense

The United States’ top defense officials made an urgent case for sending more weapons to Ukraine on Tuesday, telling officials from more than 40 countries that the coming weeks of war will be “crucial.” – Washington Post 

The Pentagon is seeking $377 million over five years to fund high-profile rapid experimentation projects, including initial efforts to close capability gaps in support of the Joint Warfighting Concept and improve Joint All Domain Operations in U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, budget details released Tuesday show. – Defense News 

Thomas G. Mahnken writes: The war in Ukraine has highlighted lethality of modern precision weapons on the battlefield, but also the fragility of the current munitions base. The United States cannot enter the next war with inadequate stocks of precision munitions, nor would it be acceptable to cut off allies from resupply in order to husband limited stockpiles for its own defense. – Defense News  

Zalmay Khalilzad writes: Our military/industry base must be revitalized and expanded in order to deal with the geopolitical challenges we face in the years and decades ahead. This is an essential problem but can be overcome. Addressing it requires national commitment and resources, public-private partnership and bold leadership from the White House, the Pentagon and Congress. We cannot afford not to rise to this challenge. – The Hill 

Long War

As Pakistan and Iran grapple with growing unrest exploited by militants groups operating in Afghanistan, the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has declared war on Chinese presence in the Balochistan region, which sits at the heart of Asia and China’s economic interests at the center of the continent. – Newsweek 

Turkey has been removing Hamas terrorists from its territory, Israel Hayom reported. An Arab source told Israel Hayom that, “We are talking about the removal of dozens of people identified with Hamas, in various circles.” Lebanon’s Al Akhbar confirmed Tuesday that Turkey did not allow some members of Hamas to return to its territory. – Arutz Sheva 

A Palestinian was killed during a firefight between Israeli soldiers and Palestinians in the West Bank city of Jenin on Wednesday morning, according to Palestinian Authority health officials and the Islamic Jihad terror group. – Times of Israel