Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Hamas officials say group is ready to hand over some weapons Trump says Iran talks are on, sparking push to bridge gaping divides Trump says U.S. seized Iranian ship trying to bypass blockade of Strait of Hormuz Iran replenishes launchers at higher rate than pre-war, guards commander says WSJ Editorial: Hold off on the Iran victory parade Trump extends sanctions exemption on some Russian oil as high gas prices persist WaPo Editorial: Putin’s wartime economy is contracting, even with high oil prices French soldier killed in attack on UN mission in southern Lebanon, officials say As world looks at Iran, North Korea accelerates its nuclear-weapons program Myanmar frees ousted President, but not Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Germany is reinventing itself as a weapons factory U.S. military strikes a boat in the Caribbean, killing 3In The News
Israel
Hamas is ready to relinquish thousands of automatic rifles and other weapons belonging to its police force and other internal security services in Gaza, according to two officials of the group. – New York Times
The Israeli military published for the first time a map of its new deployment line inside Lebanon on Sunday, bringing dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages under its control, days after a ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect. – Reuters
Argentinian President Javier Milei arrived in Israel on Sunday for his third trip in two years since his election to the position, announcing alongside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that direct flights would begin between the two countries by the end of the year and that he would move the country’s embassy to Jerusalem. – Agence France-Presse
Two civilian contractors delivering water for the UN children’s fund were shot dead on Friday by Israeli troops in northern Gaza, UNICEF said the following day, expressing fury over the deaths. – Agence France-Presse
An image showing an IDF soldier in uniform smashing a statue of Jesus in southern Lebanon spread rapidly online on Sunday afternoon, drawing condemnations across social media. The IDF said that it would investigate, confirming on Sunday evening that the image was genuine. – Jerusalem Post
An IDF reservist was killed and three other soldiers were wounded on Friday after an explosive device detonated by them in southern Lebanon, hours after the ceasefire with Hezbollah took effect, the military announced Saturday. – Times of Israel
Editorial: There will come a time when bereaved families mourning their fallen sons and daughters will no longer be willing to accept open-ended conflict as a fact of life. “The blood of our loved ones cries out from the ground and demands truthful answers.” This statement, voiced outside the homes of Israel’s leaders on Sunday, captures this sentiment resoundingly. This Remembrance Day, therefore, is not only about honoring those who have fallen, but also about ensuring next year does not look like the last. Only then will we be able to appropriately honor the sacrifice of our fallen soldiers. – Jerusalem Post
Iran
Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a new round of peace talks with Iran in Pakistan this week in a fresh effort to end the war, but there still appear to be significant gaps between both sides as the U.S. pushes Iran to lock up its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. military is using sea drones to help clear the Strait of Hormuz of mines that might be lurking there, in a quiet effort to ease Iran’s stranglehold on the waterway and begin reopening it to commercial shipping. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump said Sunday that the U.S. military seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that tried to bypass the American blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, hours after he renewed his threats of broad attacks on Iran’s infrastructure if no deal is reached in talks expected this week in Pakistan. – Washington Post
Iran’s military announced Saturday that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz, citing a continued American blockade, leaving the status of access to a vital waterway unclear a day after President Donald Trump and the country declared it open. Two ships reported attacks while attempting to cross the strait, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire amid diplomatic efforts to end the war. – Washington Post
President Donald Trump declared Friday that Iran has agreed to virtually all of his demands to end its nuclear program forever and said that talks to finalize the deal, “probably” held this weekend, “should go very quickly.” – Washington Post
The United States military last week extended its blockade on vessels coming in and out of Iranian ports to the waters of the wider world, declaring that it would pursue any ship aiding Iran, regardless of location on the high seas or flag. – New York Times
Iran’s government said Sunday that it would restore wider internet access for the country’s university professors, Iranian state media reported, even as the rest of the population heads into its 51st day of a near-total internet blackout. – New York Times
Iranian warships sunk by U.S. and Israeli attacks litter naval harbors along the Persian Gulf coast, but what is sometimes called a “mosquito fleet” lurks in the shadows. – New York Times
U.S. President Donald Trump has no justification to deprive Iran of its nuclear rights, the Iranian Student News Agency quoted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian as saying on Sunday, as Washington and Tehran continue to face disagreements over nuclear issues. – Reuters
Iran now updates and replenishes its missile and drone launchers at a higher speed than it did prior to the war with the U.S. and Israel, the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force commander said on Sunday, according to Nournews. – Reuters
Iranians striving to maintain a semblance of normal life after weeks of U.S. and Israeli bombing and a deadly crackdown on protesters in January remain daunted by the future as damage from airstrikes and internet cuts take a toll. – Reuters
There is currently no decision by Iran to send a negotiating delegation to Pakistan “as long as there is a naval blockade,” Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday, citing its reporter. – Reuters
Iran executed two men convicted of cooperating with Israel’s Mossad intelligence service and planning attacks inside the country, the judiciary’s news outlet Mizan reported on Sunday. – Reuters
Four individuals, including two foreign nationals, were arrested in Iran’s northwest, semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday, for being part of a “U.S.-Israel-linked espionage network.” – Reuters
Hundreds of commercial tankers are stranded on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran shut the critical chokepoint on April 18, halting traffic and leaving crews trapped amid reports of gunfire and “traumatic experiences” on board. – FOX News
Editorial: Mr. Trump is right to insist Iran turn over its enriched uranium, and the regime shouldn’t be allowed to keep some in reserve or give it to an unreliable third-party. This applies to Iran’s 20% enriched uranium in addition to the 60% enriched, as the one can become the other. Mr. Trump has the right instincts about Iran, and we will be the first to give him credit if the Iranian concessions turn out to be real. But his frequent assertions that a deal is imminent also tell the regime he is desperate to end the war. This makes the regime less likely to make the concessions Mr. Trump needs to claim a legitimate and lasting victory. – Wall Street Journal
Marc Champion writes: The base-case scenario for this war remains that somehow, surely, the two sides will find a way back to the negotiating table and a settlement, because both have so much to lose and so little to gain should the war resume in earnest. That would be a safe bet in a world of logic. But in our current “real” world — the one dominated by an interplay of Trumpian and IRGC fantasies of victory — a return to war looks all too possible. – Bloomberg
Mona Yacoubian writes: In its original inception, “mowing the grass” was designed to erode capabilities of terror groups, not resolve conflict or even address political dimensions of the challenge. The doctrine accepts conflict as inevitable and enduring, only seeking to extend periods of relative calm between wars. Yet in the case of Iran, adopting this approach would yield a more ominous reality. “Mowing the grass” in Iran would trigger Tehran to respond with destabilizing drone and missile strikes. Even a badly degraded Iran can create the conditions for more acute challenges, with dangerous regional and global repercussions. It could leave the region highly unstable, destroy investor confidence and, with it, Gulf economies, shatter Gulf aspirations for a globally connected region, and usher the Middle East into a Hobbesian era devoid of norms, laws, and order. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Russia and Ukraine
Just two days after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States would not extend a sanctions exemption on the sale of some Russian oil, the Treasury Department did just that on Friday, issuing one for about a month. The renewed license will be in effect until May 16 and supersede the sanctions waiver on Russia that expired on April 11. – New York Times
The Ukrainian police shot dead a gunman who killed six people and wounded several more in Kyiv on Saturday. It was the deadliest mass shooting in Ukraine in years, raising concern that such attacks may become more frequent as Ukraine’s war with Russia has sharply increased the number of firearms in circulation and exacerbated people’s traumas. – New York Times
A major Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse sparked a fire and killed at least one person, Russian officials said on Monday, just hours after a blaze was doused in the wake of a similar attack on April 16. – Reuters
The Kremlin took the unusual step of publicly acknowledging sharp criticism of the authorities from a celebrity blogger on Thursday, saying work was under way to address a slew of problems identified by social media influencer Viktoria Bonya. – Reuters
Russian attacks overnight damaged port infrastructure in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region and caused blackouts for 380,000 consumers in the country’s north, officials said. – Reuters
Ukrainian drones struck a handful of Russia’s oil facilities overnight, including two oil refineries in the Samara region, an oil depot in Crimea and a Baltic Sea port that exports petroleum products, Russian local governors and a Ukrainian army official said on Saturday. – Reuters
Editorial: Putin has responded to bad economic news as autocrats usually do — by trying to suppress the free flow of information. The Kremlin has reduced the disclosure of important indices, like trade flows and company finances. Thousands of internet sites are blocked. A 2024 law criminalizes the spreading of “false information,” which is whatever the government decides it is. And with the media largely under state control, there is little accountability and no independent scrutiny. The lesson from Russia is that a modern economy can be made to function under the strain of war and isolation. But not indefinitely. – Washington Post
Natasha Udensiva and Ed Verona write: Russia, despite its larger manpower resources, will likely have to desist and even retreat. Its soldiers have little understanding of what they are fighting for, and according to widely circulated reports, are suffering extremely low morale. Even though they are subjected to extensive propaganda, the brainwashing wears off when confronted with battlefield realities and incompetent and corrupt commanders. The statistics of this war provide only a partial understanding of it. For the answer to the real question of how long it can continue, you have to understand the level of motivation on each side. By that measure, the Ukrainians have the advantage. – The Hill
Amos Fox writes: At this point, the lasting strategic impact of the Donbas campaign remains to be seen. As the current phase of the Russo-Ukrainian War flows through its fourth year, the war continues with no end in sight. If Ukraine prevails, the campaign can be seen as a great campaign within a lost war. It could be seen as the spark to a Euro-Atlantic political and military awakening that led to Russia’s geostrategic weakening in Europe and in international politics. However, if Russia wins the conflict, maintains control of the territory it has taken from Ukraine, and uses it for yet another springboard for continued attempts to destroy Ukraine, the Donbas campaign could be seen as a latent inflection point for Russian dominance in European security. The campaign might also be seen by a host of states as further justification for the maintenance of cultural proxies in neighboring states in which shared culture bleeds across international boundaries to maintain strategic leverage in those states. Nonetheless, the Donbas campaign, largely hidden within the litany of conflict that has consumed the world in the ensuing years, is a classic campaign worthy of recognition, reflection, and continued study. – War on the Rocks
Hezbollah
As a 10-day cease-fire appeared to hold between Hezbollah and Israel, the leader of the Iran-backed militant group said on Saturday that it was “fully open” to cooperating with the Lebanese government, but laid out difficult conditions for a path forward. – New York Times
A French soldier was killed and three others wounded while clearing a road in southern Lebanon in an attack that UNIFIL peacekeepers and French officials said on Saturday was likely carried out by Iran-backed Hezbollah. – Reuters
Syria’s interior ministry said Sunday that security forces thwarted an alleged cross-border attack near the border of Israel planned by remnants of ousted leader Bashar al-Assad’s regime and cells linked to the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah terrorist organization. – Agence France-Presse
The Israeli military on Saturday confirmed carrying out several strikes in southern Lebanon over the previous day against Hezbollah operatives who “violated the ceasefire understandings,” in the first such action since the truce took effect at midnight between Thursday and Friday. – Agence France-Presse
Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Maronite Christian Lebanese Forces political party, denounced Hezbollah as the reason for violence and displacement in Lebanon in a Saturday post to X/Twitter. – Jerusalem Post
Five more members of a Hezbollah-linked terrorist cell who were allegedly involved in the planning of an attack on a rabbi in Bab Touma in Damascus’s old city were arrested by Syrian security officials on Saturday, according to the country’s Interior Ministry and media reports. – Jerusalem Post
Iraq
Iraq’s oil ministry said oil exports would resume from all fields within the next few days, the Iraqi state news agency INA reported on Saturday. – Reuters
Credit ratings agency Moody’s on Friday revised Iraq’s outlook to “negative” from “stable”, citing risks to the country’s credit profile due to the ongoing Middle East conflict impacting energy flow and security. – Reuters
The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, visited Baghdad and held talks with political and militia leaders amid unresolved negotiations over who should be the next Iraqi prime minister, a source told Iraqi outlet Shafaq News on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post
Turkey
At Turkey’s showcase diplomatic conference in the Mediterranean resort town of Antalya over the weekend, the United States was rarely the official topic of conversation. But coursing through the discussions among the thousands of participants — including dozens of heads of state and other senior officials from Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia — were questions about how to respond when the United States disregards its allies and the global order it long professed to represent. – New York Times
Discussions are under way on how to manage or mitigate a possible U.S. withdrawal from the “European security architecture”, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday. – Reuters
Turkey’s long-term contract for importing natural gas from Iran is due to expire in the coming months, and the two countries could hold talks on a possible extension, though no negotiations are under way yet, Turkey’s energy minister said on Saturday. – Reuters
A Turkish government team visited Portugal recently to meet potential investors for Ankara’s plan to privatise billions of dollars worth of state-run highways and bridges, three sources familiar with the situation said. – Reuters
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Sunday accused Israel of using security concerns to seize new territory, in the latest strongly worded comments by Ankara against Jerusalem. – Times of Israel
Lebanon
Families packed into cars with mattresses lashed to rooftops, many waving Hezbollah flags, and streamed into southern Lebanon in the first hours of a tentative ceasefire early Friday, rushing home after six weeks of Israeli bombardment that has killed more than 2,100 people across the country. – Washington Post
People uprooted by the war in Lebanon began returning to devastated towns and neighbourhoods on Friday, with many finding their homes destroyed or uninhabitable and hesitant to stay for fear a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel could unravel. – Reuters
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said on Friday that a ceasefire agreed to by his country should be transformed into “permanent agreements,” without saying whether he was referring to a prospective peace deal with Israel. – Reuters
Nearly a quarter of Lebanese have been forced from their homes, both in the south and other Shi’ite Muslim-majority areas, ordered by Israel to leave as it levelled villages and city districts and sent in troops over six weeks of war. – Reuters
The Israeli military is reestablishing a security zone that it left some 26 years ago, although commanders say that this time around, it will not carry with it the same dangers that troops faced during the 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 1982-2000. – Times of Israel
Gulf States
The United Arab Emirates has opened talks with the U.S. about obtaining a financial backstop in case the Iran war plunges the oil-rich Persian Gulf state into a deeper crisis, U.S. officials said. U.A.E. Central Bank Gov. Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the idea of a currency-swap line with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasury and Federal Reserve officials in meetings in Washington last week, the officials said. – Wall Street Journal
To grasp the global collateral damage from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, consider the Persian Gulf nation of Qatar. A close U.S. ally and longtime mediator between Washington and Tehran, Qatar’s government sought to avert the war. When that failed, Qatari officials warned of the dangers of a prolonged conflict. – New York Times
UAE markets retreated in early trade on Monday, as fears deepened that the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran could unravel after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo vessel, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely suspended. – Reuters
Middle East & North Africa
Tunisian comedian and actor Lotfi Abdelli said on Friday a court in Tunisia had sentenced him in absentia to 18 months in prison over a play he performed years ago, and described the ruling as politically motivated and aimed at stifling critical voices. – Reuters
It will take about two years to recover the energy output lost in the Middle East from the conflict there, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, was quoted as saying on Friday in an interview with the Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper. – Reuters
Egypt is working closely with Pakistan on a framework aimed at securing a lasting peace between the U.S. and Iran, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said on Saturday. – Reuters
A court in Kazakhstan convicted 19 activists after a protest against Beijing’s crackdown in China’s far-western Xinjiang region last year, in what experts and advocates said was the largest move yet by the Kazakh government to silence criticism at Beijing’s behest. – Associated Press
Erin K. McFee and Gillian Gordon write: If Washington uses this moment only to add another round of missiles to the ledger, it will merely agitate the movement, encourage it to wait out the bombing, and allow it to regroup while U.S. attention shifts elsewhere. The choice is not between hitting the Houthis or doing nothing, but between another short, expensive round of strikes against a resilient system and a strategy that uses deterrence to buy time for the harder work of rewiring that system from the ground up. The only way to turn temporary weakness into strategic gain is to ensure that any renewed use of force is tightly embedded in a broader effort of economic hardening, supply‑chain interdiction, and locally rooted governance support. In this way, deterrence underwrites a more durable political order instead of becoming an open‑ended substitute for strategy. – War on the Rocks
Korean Peninsula
With Iran’s uranium enrichment firmly in President Trump’s crosshairs, North Korea is quickly advancing its ability to expand its nuclear arsenal, upping activity at its main nuclear site, including work on a suspected new enrichment site. Pyongyang’s recent advances drew a stern warning this week from Rafael Grossi, the United Nations’ atomic chief. – Wall Street Journal
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw Sunday’s ballistic missile test launches as part of efforts to evaluate the performance of warheads carrying cluster bombs and fragmentation mines, state media KCNA reported on Monday. – Reuters
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung heads into talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Monday, aiming for a big boost in economic cooperation, particularly in areas such as shipbuilding. – Reuters
David Fickling writes: But entrenched and conflicted vested interests are still dominant. Kepco has effectively banned all new generators in the renewables-rich east and Jeju until 2032, because its crumbling grid is supposedly incapable of accepting new connections. That decision does nothing to advance South Korea’s energy transition. It does mean, however, that Kepco’s own power plants don’t have to compete with new entrants. It’s this regulatory morass, rather than South Korea’s unforgiving geography and nimbyism, that’s most responsible for renewable power costs that are the highest of any major economy. The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz should be the catalyst needed to change things. The popularity of nuclear power, a homegrown success story that produces about 30% of electricity, suggests the public is ready to acknowledge some of the hard choices that need to be made around its energy mix. – Bloomberg
China
Today, America’s allure is fading. More elite Chinese youths, businesspeople and scientists are gravitating back home. Some who have returned say they are turned off not only by the U.S.’s hardening immigration enforcement, but also by its faulty infrastructure, gun violence and living costs. Back in China, many cities have grown cleaner and more livable in recent years, linked together by efficient subways and high-speed trains. – Wall Street Journal
China said relatively little in the early weeks of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, a longtime friend of Beijing. There was no outpouring of grief for the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed. In response to the selection of his son, Mojtaba, as his successor, China’s Foreign Ministry responded with a simple statement that it had “noted relevant reports.” – Washington Post
China said it monitored a Japanese warship’s transit in the Taiwan Strait on Friday, calling the move “a deliberate provocation” as Beijing’s ties with Tokyo remain fraught. – Reuters
China said on Saturday it is willing to advance negotiations on upgrading the China-Switzerland free trade agreement. – Reuters
The core area of Beijing’s Satellite Town, designed as a hub for satellite manufacturers and operators, will be completed in the second half of 2026, state-owned media Beijing Daily reported on Saturday. Commercial launches now account for over 60% of all space launches and a number of companies are rushing to go public, Beijing Daily said. – Reuters
Chinese government officials are encouraging travelers to be wary and avoid entering the United States through Seattle, citing a pattern of continual harassment by U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel. – Associated Press
China is set to import a record volume of US ethane this month as petrochemical producers seek alternative feedstocks for their operations after the war in the Middle East choked off crucial supplies. – Bloomberg
As Chinese warships and fighter jets staged massive drills around Taiwan in December, a parallel action was unfolding on smartphone screens. On Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, a news outlet run by the Chinese Communist Party posted a 51-second video of Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun accusing President Lai Ching-te of inviting Chinese aggression. – Defense News
Jai Ramaswamy and Matt Perault write: This is a pro-competition reform, not a subsidy. The Pentagon has recognized for years that open-source solutions deserve evaluation on equal footing. Extending that principle to AI procurement across the federal government would simply level a tilted playing field. The question facing policymakers is no longer whether open-source AI will define the next phase of global AI development. It is whether the open layer that the world builds on will be American or Chinese. Policy uncertainty held American open-source developers back while the competition surged ahead. Closing that gap requires the government to show up as a builder, a buyer and a champion. – Wall Street Journal
Kai He and Huiyun Feng write: China and the United States do not need to become partners, but they need to avoid becoming enemies in ways that drag the region down with them. The task is not to end the rivalry but to strictly manage it to prevent competition from escalating into military confrontation. Regional scrutiny and political guardrails could avoid competition that plays out only through arms races, coercive signaling, and exclusive blocs. Building on the existing strengths of ASEAN would be the best place to start. – Foreign Affairs
South Asia
Myanmar’s ousted president U Win Myint, who was forced from office along with the civilian leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi by the military in a 2021 coup, was freed from prison on Friday after serving more than five years. – New York Times
An Indian government bill to expand assemblies that would have brought forward plans to reserve a third of the seats for women did not get enough votes to get through parliament on Friday, in a rare defeat for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. – Reuters
Mihir Sharma writes: For now, everyone pretends to trust Sharif, Munir, and the Pakistan military. Perhaps because it is clear that, for a change, the men in Islamabad aren’t playing a double game. They cannot afford to; they really need this war to end, or their people will remain in the dark for a long, hot, deadly summer. And, as they endure power cuts and price rises, Pakistanis are simply hoping that, for once, their state will rise above its usual incompetence and do something. – Bloomberg
Asia
Xu is one of a half-dozen alleged kingpins running cybercrime networks, based in Cambodia, who have been sanctioned by the U.S. or are wanted by investigative agencies in other countries. The list also includes two Cambodian senators and a Chinese adviser to successive Cambodian prime ministers. – Wall Street Journal
When the war in Iran started on Feb. 28, Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected. – New York Times
The head of one of Taiwan’s top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island. – Reuters
Indonesia’s National Human Rights Commission strongly criticised the military on Monday as it investigated the killing of 12 civilians last week during an operation against rebels in Papua province. – Reuters
Australia’s most decorated soldier, charged with war crimes related to Afghanistan deployments more than a decade ago, on Sunday publicly denied the allegations against him and said he was proud of his service. – Reuters
New Zealand on Saturday defended the actions of a military patrol aircraft flight near China after Beijing said it had undermined its security interests. China’s foreign ministry said on Friday that a New Zealand P-8A patrol aircraft had “conducted continuous close-in reconnaissance and harassment in the airspace and waters of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea”. – Reuters
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is urging bipartisan support for a free trade agreement with India and has hit back at racially slanted criticism of the deal from government coalition partner New Zealand First. – Bloomberg
Daniel Byman and Seth G. Jones writes: If the United States and its allies internalize these lessons — prioritizing quantity over exquisite high-tech systems, investing in survivable and decentralized defenses and encouraging dispersal, concealment and mobility — they can help Taiwan transform itself into a far more formidable obstacle to Chinese aggression. That may be enough to deter a Chinese attack from occurring in the first place. – New York Times
Europe
As its export model breaks down, Germany is pivoting from cars to cannons—and trying to turn industrial decline into a defense boom. After decades as Europe’s manufacturing engine, the country is mired in its longest stretch of stagnation since World War II as it wrestles with competition from China and a slump in demand. The response is as stark as the crisis: recasting its industrial base as the West’s arsenal. – Wall Street Journal
Kremlin-friendly former president Rumen Radev looked set for victory in Bulgaria’s snap election, according to exit polls Sunday evening, in a vote that has taken on additional significance for Moscow as it looks to rebuild toeholds of support within the European Union in the wake of ally Viktor Orban’s defeat in Hungary last week. – Washington Post
British counterterrorism police are investigating what they described as “linked arson attacks” in northwest London against Jewish sites and properties with ties to Israel, the Metropolitan Police said on Sunday. – New York Times
Kensington Gardens, a park in central London, was closed off by the police on Friday after a video was shared online by a group claiming to have targeted the nearby Israeli Embassy with drones carrying dangerous substances. – New York Times
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he would be ready to meet U.S. President Donald Trump once a “big deal” between the two countries has been prepared. – Reuters
Europe must have its own defense system against ballistic weapons, and Ukraine is already holding talks with several countries on its creation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday. – Reuters
British premier Keir Starmer will address parliament on Monday, facing calls for his resignation over his handling of the appointment of Peter Mandelson, a senior figure in his ruling Labour party, as U.S. ambassador, though it emerged he had failed a vetting process. – Reuters
With help from U.S. taxpayers, Cyprus is upgrading key military installations to strengthen the mission it has carved for itself as a safe haven in the eastern Mediterranean for evacuees from the conflict-wracked Middle East and as a humanitarian aid hub. – Associated Press
France is moving closer to a decision on its future rocket artillery system, with the country testing domestically developed weapons this month that will allow for a comparison with foreign systems in a few weeks’ time, the head of the country’s armaments agency said. – Defense News
U.S. officials have informed some European counterparts that some previously contracted weapons deliveries are likely to be delayed as the Iran war continues to draw on weapons stocks, five sources familiar with the matter said. – Defense News
Editorial: The E.U. suffers from stagnant economic growth, averaging 1.5 percent last year among member states. Its unemployment rate was 5.9 percent in February, compared to 4.4 percent that month in the U.S. The protectionist rot runs deep. Making it easier to merge is one tool to help companies climb out of the hole their governments have dug. But rules are only as nimble or useful as the people who oversee their implementation. – Washington Post
Martin Ivens writes: GUBU can make for comical reading, but the implications for Starmer’s foreign policy are deeply serious too. After all, it’s the only part of administration that Starmer seems genuinely interested in. The national interest rests on the twin pillars of good relations with Washington, while moving closer to economic alignment with the EU. The first pillar is tottering. Loyalists still plead that Starmer’s survival is required to steady the ship of state in a world on tenterhooks about the Strait of Hormuz oil route. But what if the domestic turbulence stems from his poor judgment and diffidence? After local elections next month, predicted to be disastrous for Labour, his MPs will have to decide whether he’s the problem, not the solution. – Bloomberg
Rosa Prince writes: Could the PM be forced to resign over all this? I doubt it, not because of what he did or didn’t know in relation to his disgraced ambassador, but because we again come back to what has kept Starmer in the job since the start of the year: There is no one to replace him. Labour MPs are the only people who can get rid of the PM, and they simply cannot agree on who comes next. If nothing else, this latest chapter in the ugly Mandelson saga should force them to finally get their act together. Starmer looks safe today. But having a worthy alternative would be a good thing for everyone. – Bloomberg
Adrian Wooldridge writes: Liberals need to keep the spotlight on problems that are structural to populist regimes such as cronyism, corruption and megalomania: Orban’s critics repeatedly cited Transparency International’s data showing that Hungary is one of the most corrupt countries in Europe. “Power is of its nature evil,” said the 19th-century historian Jacob Burckhardt. “It is not a stability but a lust, and ipso facto insatiable, therefore unhappy in itself and doomed to make others unhappy.” Because liberals recognize this fact, and populists are blind to it, they will always be on the winning side of history in the end, however long the end takes. – Bloomberg
Jonathan Turley writes: Von der Leyen is right that there is “momentum now” for the globalists, but the momentum of history still rests with the U.S. and its unique experiment in self-governance. We saw this threat before, and we defeated a world empire. If we are to survive and thrive in this century, we will need to return to our own creation as a republic — to dig deep down and remember who we are as citizens. Ours was the first Enlightenment revolution that embraced natural rights originating not from government but from God. We remain a unique people, joined by an article of faith found in our own Declaration of Independence. If this republic is to survive, it will be up to each of us, in the words of Benjamin Franklin, to “keep it.” – The Hill
Africa
The first migrants deported from the United States under a recent bilateral agreement arrived in Democratic Republic of Congo early on Friday, according to one of the migrants, a lawyer in contact with the group and two airport sources. – Reuters
The representatives of the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the rebel coalition Alliance Fleuve Congo made progress on a protocol on humanitarian access and judicial protection, ceasefire oversight, and the release of prisoners, the U.S. State Department said on Saturday. – Reuters
The United States imposed sanctions on Friday on five companies and individuals it said were involved in recruiting former Colombian military personnel to fight on behalf of a paramilitary group in Sudan. – Reuters
Gunmen attacked a passenger bus in Nigeria ‘s Benue state, abducting some students on their way to university examinations, officials said. The students and other passengers were abducted Thursday along the Otukpo-Makurdi highway, Benue Gov. Hyacinth Alia said in a statement. – Associated Press
Zimbabwe’s currency is undervalued by almost half, the governor of the central bank said, pointing to the foreign reserves and gold that back the unit. – Bloomberg
Areig Elhag writes: Equally essential is demonstrating that Sudan has severed its ties with the Iranian regime once and for all, that its territory will not serve as a corridor for Tehran’s expansion toward the African continent or an arena for harnessing Sudanese chaos in the service of Iran’s expansionist project. Most important of all is the unavoidable reckoning the Sudanese military now faces: to prove through action, not words, that it has truly broken free from the MB’s grip and that its strategic choices are no longer held hostage to the interests of the Islamists who, for decades, built it and supplied it with the tools of survival. Given the complications that such a move would involve, it is unlikely that Burhan will enact such stringent measures independently. Given this reality, the designation of the MB is an effective first step, but sustained international pressure will likely be required in order to push Burhan towards a true decoupling. – Washington Institute
The Americas
President Javier Milei’s radical free-market overhaul of Argentina is running into the same problems that plagued the political old guard he vowed to overthrow. Corruption allegations. Legal setbacks. Economic malaise. Dismal polls. Any one of those would be a blow to Milei’s agenda to restore the fortunes of what was once one of the world’s richest nations. – Wall Street Journal
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday called for closer ties between South America’s largest economy and the European Union at the opening of the Hanover industrial fair. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that the United States is imposing visa sanctions on Nicaragua’s vice-minister of the interior, Luis Roberto Cañas Novoa, for alleged involvement in human rights violations. – Reuters
Calls to remove the head of Peru’s electoral authority intensified on Friday as delays and alleged irregularities clouded the presidential vote count, with no clear challenger emerging to face conservative frontrunner Keiko Fujimori in a June runoff. – Reuters
U.S. pressure on dissenting Latin American leaders could lead to a “rebellion” against Washington’s influence, Colombian President Gustavo Petro warned in an interview with Spanish newspaper El Pais published on Saturday. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund will likely provide Venezuela with a financial support program as part of its re-engagement with the South American oil exporter provided that certain conditions can be met, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday. – Reuters
Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: Not in her narrative. The late dictator Hugo Chávez fought for social justice but his project came undone as a consequence of U.S. sanctions, she explained. The blame lies with “the blockade,” the term Cuba uses for sanctions. She demanded all be lifted. Ms. Rodríguez recognized that hyperinflation has destroyed Venezuelan living standards. Two cheers for that. But if the leader of the “recovery” continues to parrot socialist bromides and surround herself with other thugs, there’s not much hope for the future. – Wall Street Journal
Robert Burrell and Homer Harkins write: Despite these advances, the durability of Venezuela’s democratic opening is not yet assured. Deep structural challenges persist within the ruling PSUV apparatus, including unresolved questions of accountability for past abuses, the political role of figures such as Diosdado Cabello, and the uncertain alignment of military leadership forged under previous regimes. These factors introduce significant volatility into the transition process and may ultimately determine whether reforms consolidate into a stable democratic order or fragment under internal resistance. Ultimately, Venezuela’s future will hinge on whether its emerging political consensus can withstand the pressures of institutional inertia and elite competition. While the country appears to be moving toward democratic elections and economic openings, the success of this quiet revolution will depend on the credibility of its institutions, the cohesion of its transitional leadership, and the willingness of all major actors to accept the rules of a genuinely competitive political system. – The National Interest
North America
The U.S. military attacked a boat in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday, killing three people. The strike raised the death toll to at least 180 in the campaign by the United States against people it accuses of smuggling drugs at sea. – New York Times
The Trump administration sent a senior delegation to Cuba last week to discuss a deal to address the humanitarian crisis on the island, marking a new diplomatic effort even as President Trump ramps up pressure on Havana. – New York Times
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Spain’s Pedro Sanchez met in Barcelona on Saturday after a summit of progressive leaders, signaling a rapprochement during the first presidential visit to the Mediterranean country in eight years. – Reuters
Canada’s close ties to the United States were once a strength but have become a weakness, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sunday, in a video message to his country in which he also praised the heroism of military leaders who fought against U.S. invasion more than two centuries ago. – Reuters
The governments of Brazil, Spain and Mexico on Saturday vowed to step up coordinated aid to Cuba to alleviate what they described as a humanitarian crisis caused by the U.S. blockade of the Caribbean island. – Reuters
Haiti and the Dominican Republic agreed to open the airspace between the two countries starting in May, according to a statement on Friday, after flights had been suspended more than two years earlier. – Reuters
Two U.S. Embassy personnel were killed in what officials described as an “accident” in Mexico, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ronald Johnson announced Sunday. – FOX News
Max Hastings writes: But in Trump country nothing is assured, and little is ever off the table except defiance of his demands. The core facts remain: The president wants a fast win and Cuba appears to him ripe for the plucking. It seems plausible that, over the weeks ahead, Trump will seek to shift the headlines from the Middle East to the Caribbean. He has openly speculated about deploying his military there, saying “sometimes you have to use it. And Cuba is next.” Trouble is, this administration’s record in foreign affairs is almost uniformly calamitous — Venezuela not excluded, if the interests of its people are considered. Whatever else the world needs right now, the last thing is American bayonets on Cuban beaches. – Bloomberg
United States
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said on Sunday that gasoline prices in the United States had probably peaked but acknowledged that they could remain elevated for months, undermining President Trump’s earlier claim that high fuel prices would be “short-term.” – New York Times
Michigan officials on Sunday pushed back on a U.S. Department of Justice demand for Detroit-area ballots and other materials related to the 2024 election, accusing the Trump administration of trying to cast doubt on the integrity of U.S. elections. – Reuters
A U.S. appeals court allowed President Donald Trump’s administration on Friday night to continue construction of a $400 million ballroom on the site of the White House’s demolished East Wing, setting a June hearing to review a Washington judge’s order halting the project. – Reuters
Jason Willick writes: The Electoral College can’t reliably be deconstructed with a rickety end-run around the Constitution. Perhaps the NPVIC’s proponents are clear-eyed about this. Perhaps they see their campaign not as a smooth pathway to reform, but as a formula for a crisis that would make possible one of the most profound changes to the American democratic process since the nation’s founding. – Washington Post
Cybersecurity
Paris prosecutors on Saturday pushed back against a report the U.S. Justice Department would not cooperate in their probe into Elon Musk’s X platform which it viewed as politically motivated, stressing their judicial independence. – Reuters
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Sunday that artificial intelligence for industrial use will require more regulatory freedom in the European Union than other AI areas such as consumer use to boost productivity. – Reuters
The United States National Security Agency is using Anthropic’s Mythos Preview AI tool despite the Pentagon hitting the company with a formal supply-chain risk designation, Axios reported on Sunday. – Reuters
A Ukrainian cyber official has confirmed that several local government agencies were targeted in a long-running cyber-espionage campaign attributed to a Russian state-linked hacker group. – The Record
Mark R. Whittington writes: Rees and Goldsmith claim that huma space exploration is too expensive and dangerous. Ironically, the authors of the piece dismiss entrepreneurs such as SpaceX’s Elon Musk, Blue Origin’s Jeff Bezos, and Rocket Lab’s Peter Beck with a single, snarky paragraph. But these men and others have brought down the cost of space travel by orders of magnitude. Those costs will continue to decline through the power of free market competition. Space travel, like many human endeavors, is fraught with danger. People have and will die on the high frontier. But it is not for nothing that the profession of astronaut is one of the most sought-after on Earth. Human progress is often bought with lives ended early and tragically. But staying home in comfort and safety is not an option. That path takes human civilization to decadence, decline, and, eventually, death. – The Hill
Defense
A United States warship passed through the Strait of Malacca over the weekend, the Indonesian Navy said on Monday, adding that the transit through the major sea route was in accordance with international law. – Reuters
U.S. Air Force airmen operated a semiautonomous jet-powered combat drone in a series of sorties recently, boosting the service’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. – Defense News
Ashley Cai, Jeremy White, and John Ismay write: The Pentagon invested over a billion dollars in fiscal year 2024 researching directed energy weapons, or lasers, that would cost only $3 per shot and have a range of 12 miles. Those systems have yet to be used in the field. Despite the cost imbalance, the real fear for many in the defense community is the depleted stockpile of munitions. “What scares me is that we will run out of these things,” said Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Not that we can’t afford them, but that we’ll run out before we can replace them.” – New York Times