Fdd's overnight brief

Russia & Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, both visited troops in Ukraine within a day of each other this week as the leaders try to shore up morale ahead of an expected offensive by Kyiv to wrest territory from Moscow’s grip. – Wall Street Journal

A Moscow court on Tuesday upheld the detention of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was arrested while on a reporting trip last month and held on an allegation of espionage that the Journal and the U.S. government vehemently deny. – Wall Street Journal

Federal authorities charged four Americans on Tuesday with roles in a malign campaign pushing pro-Kremlin propaganda in Florida and Missouri — expanding a previous case that charged a Russian operative with running illegal influence agents within the United States. – Washington Post

Late last month, American and European Union officials traded information on millions of dollars’ worth of banned technology that was slipping through the cracks of their defenses and into Russian territory. – New York Times

Russia is pounding the Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine ever more fiercely with aerial attacks and artillery strikes, but Ukrainian forces remain in control of the embattled city, the commander of Kyiv’s ground forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said on Tuesday. – New York Times

The U.S. and its NATO allies must remain alert for signs Russian President Vladimir Putin could use a tactical nuclear weapon in a “managed” escalation of his war in Ukraine, the second-highest U.S. diplomat said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Moscow authorities are using the Russian capital’s vast system of facial recognition cameras to track down young men eligible for military service, the state-owned news agency TASS reported on Tuesday, citing the city’s chief enlistment officer. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will discuss the Ukraine Black Sea grain export deal with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in New York next week, just weeks before the pact could expire unless Russian demands regarding its own exports are met. – Reuters

Senior Russian officials privately raised concerns some 10 months ago about the risks of becoming too dependent on Chinese technologies after sanctions by the US and the European Union shut off access to alternative suppliers. – Bloomberg

Two former Wagner PMC mercenary commanders testified how they had been ordered to execute Ukrainian children and civilians, shoot deserters, and kill prisoners of war often at the direction of Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to a video published by Russian human rights NGO Gulagu. – Jerusalem Post

Tom Rogan writes: The question stands: Why is the Biden administration happy to engage with a firm that seems determined to provide service to the Kremlin elite? To facilitate this energy activity while restricting domestic energy extraction does not appear to be in the U.S.’s national interest — nor, for that matter, in the interest of U.S. foreign policy priorities such as supporting Ukraine. – Washington Examiner

Anthony Grant writes: The timing of the chaos in Sudan may have been unpredictable, but there is no doubt that the pressure has been building for a long time, particularly following a military coup in October 2021. Yet with their firm footprint and Kremlin-backed connivances, the Wagner mercenaries, insofar as they have any strategy besides plunder, may be trying to put out a fire with gasoline. President Putin’s is one hell of a church. – New York Sun

Leonid Bershidsky writes: Putin’s investment in Russia’s “civilizational inflection point,” to use Michta’s expression, is far greater than that of the likes of Prigozhin or Strelkov: He’s staked his enormous power on it, and he’ll only allow even partially dissenting voices if they sing harmony with each other and, ultimately, with him. Only a massive military defeat could, in theory, change that. – Bloomberg

Mackenzie Eaglen writes: Unpredictable timelines make speed all the more important. With no guarantee of success in the future with current efforts to bolster deterrence, the pace at which government moves now is critical. Supporting Ukraine while confronting a formidable competitor in China that is gaining in both capability and capacity over the United States demands increased purchasing and more rapid fielding of combat power. – American Enterprise Institute

Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s economy will contract, inflation will rise and liquidity will fall if there is a 30% drop in international aid as feared, according to an analysis by the United Nations’ development agency released on Tuesday. – Reuters

The reclusive top leader of the Taliban released a message Tuesday lauding the changes in Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover and the measures they imposed after seizing the country following two decades of war. – Associated Press

The United Nations is ready to take the “heartbreaking” decision to pull out of Afghanistan in May if it can’t persuade the Taliban to let local women work for the organization, the head of the U.N. Development Program said. – Associated Press

The United Nations made a renewed appeal for international aid for Afghanistan, warning that a cut in funding in response to the Taliban government banning women from education and jobs would perpetuate extreme poverty that lasts for decades. – Bloomberg

Afghanistan’s southern city of Kandahar is the historical birthplace and the political base of the Taliban. Now, the country’s second-largest city appears to be becoming the de facto capital under the militant group’s rule. – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Turkey

The Hatay international airport was meant to be a gleaming model for what the government called “the New Turkey,” kicking off one of the biggest building booms of the 21st century. Danger signs were flashing from the start. The airport was constructed on top of both a major fault line and a drained lake. Inspectors who had approved the location, near the country’s border with Syria, were unqualified, a southern Turkish court ruled in 2003, just four years after a quake near Istanbul had killed 17,000 people. – Wall Street Journal

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s chief rival in next month’s election defended Kurdish rights on Tuesday and accused the Turkish leader of stoking ethnic tensions for political gain. Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s comments followed weeks of attempts by Erdogan to link the opposition with Kurdish militants who have been waging a deadly insurgency against the Turkish state. – Agence France-Presse

Seth J. Frantzman writes: This leads to questions about claims that Ankara has customers lined up for its drones and other weapon systems that it continues to show off. Turkey recently announced a new warship to carry drones and said it launched a new observation satellite over the weekend. Without the upgrades for all its F-16s and the ability to buy more, it is unclear where Turkey will turn to make sure its air force has the latest technology. – Jerusalem Post

Lebanon

An alleged financier of U.S.-designated terrorist group Hezbollah was charged with a scheme to evade American sanctions and illegally import and export hundreds of millions of dollars worth of fine art and diamonds. – Wall Street Journal

Britain has sanctioned an individual suspected of financing Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, as part of an effort to “disrupt an international terrorist-financing operation”, the British government said on Tuesday. – Reuters

Lebanon’s parliament Tuesday voted to extend the terms of local officials, paving the way to postpone municipal elections for up to a year for a second time. Some lawmakers were concerned the government wouldn’t be able to secure the needed funding in time for polling. – Associated Press

The US State Department today (Tuesday) announced a $7 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Ibrahim Aqil, a senior member of the Hezbollah terrorist organization. – Arutz Sheva

Middle East & North Africa

Russian natural gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) is setting up a Middle East unit, the company said in a regulatory disclosure on Tuesday. – Reuters

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are restoring diplomatic ties and reopening embassies, officials said on Tuesday, more than two years after Arab states ended a boycott of Doha that had shattered the Western-allied Gulf Arab bloc. – Reuters

Tunisia’s president vowed a “relentless war” against those he claimed were damaging the country, signaling a possible escalation in the crackdown against opponents shortly after the detention of his most vocal critic. – Bloomberg

Two people from the Middle East participated in this year’s March of the Living, speaking to Israel National News on Tuesday about their experience visiting Auschwitz. – Arutz Sheva

David Ignatius writes: The Biden administration is rediscovering diplomacy, too, after decades of American wars in the region. We’re brokering deals with Iraqis, Lebanese, Emiratis, Kurds, Saudis and maybe, eventually, some Syrians, too. Some of our partners are distasteful, but that’s part of diplomacy. We’ve had too many decades of ugly wars; it’s time for some ugly peace. – Washington Post

Danielle Pletka writes: There’s no doubt that many U.S. partners in the Middle East — Israel included — feel the need to hedge their bets, calculating that they can no longer count on a Washington that has pivoted away to Ukraine and China. Whether that is a wise choice for them is a different question. But from the U.S. perspective, it cannot proceed with billions in taxpayer-funded aid to countries that do not support American foreign policy, do not need American money, and don’t share — particularly in the case of Egypt — American values. It’s time to reassess. – The Hill

Seth J. Frantzman writes: Overall, the fighting in Sudan and the arrests in Tunisia represent important shifts in both countries. These are shifts that likely make the chances for civilian democratic rule returning even more distant. – Jerusalem Post

Alan Baker writes: Jordan’s delicate strategic status, both internally and in the intra-Arab context, should not serve as a cover and pretext for echoing knowingly false and flawed accusations against its neighbor Israel. In doing so, Jordan risks prejudicing the extensive benefits in many spheres that it enjoys from its peace treaty with Israel. One might hope that the king will exercise his authority to stem this dangerous threat to peace with Israel. – Jerusalem Post

China

The Chinese military could soon deploy a high-altitude spy drone that travels at least three times the speed of sound, according to a leaked U.S. military assessment, a development that would dramatically strengthen China’s ability to conduct surveillance operations. – Washington Post

The top diplomats from the Group of Seven major industrial democracies stressed the need to unite against China’s economic, military and cyber assertiveness, in a display of solidarity Tuesday after differences emerged recently over the fate of Taiwan. – Washington Post

Despite the rollback of China’s one-child policy, and even after more recent incentives urging families to have more children, China’s population is steadily shrinking — a momentous shift that will soon leave India as the world’s most populous nation and have broad rippling effects both domestically and globally. – New York Times

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday will lay out the Biden administration’s principal objectives for the U.S.-China economic relationship in a speech in Washington, the Treasury said on Tuesday as tensions between the world’s two largest economies has thwarted high-level meetings. – Reuters

There was “some evidence” that China wants the dollar to weaken as the international reserve currency, said a White House nominee for a top economist position on Tuesday, and he urged Congress to raise the U.S. debt ceiling to protect the dollar’s value. – Reuters

China is increasing its Antarctic footprint according to new satellite imagery collected by a Washington-based think tank that shows construction has resumed for the first time since 2018 on the country’s fifth station in the southern polar region. – Reuters

China said a communique by the G7 meeting grossly interfered in its internal affairs, and maliciously smeared and discredited the country, the Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday. – Reuters

China denied all accusations of an overseas police presence, saying Tuesday that the United States was making “groundless accusations” after U.S. law enforcement arrested two men in New York for establishing a secret police station. – Associated Press

China revealed new details of sanctions it previously announced against two U.S. weapons manufacturers Tuesday, including a ban on Chinese companies doing business with them. – Associated Press

China will have a stockpile of 1,500 nuclear warheads “by 2035,” according to Western officials who worry that technological advances and geopolitical acrimony have raised the potential for nuclear conflict. – Washington Examiner

NATO wants to strike a deal with China over rules outlining the responsible use of artificial intelligence and other disruptive technologies in the military domain, the alliance’s chief Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday. – Bloomberg

Senior US defense officials warned lawmakers about the growing risks of Chinese military power and the need to accelerate US development of hypersonic weapons. – Bloomberg

Joseph Bosco writes: Biden needs to re-galvanize both his own will and that of the West, including Japan and South Korea, to confront the increasingly coordinated effort by our common adversaries, led by China and Russia. If the West does not win Cold War II, it will face a new two-front shooting war. – The Hill

Charles A. Williams writes: Readiness, lethality and presence to engage must be our priority or the U.S. no longer remains a superpower; we’d be subject to the whims of others. Yes, we should supply weapons to Taiwan as quickly as possible, but equally important we must build a stronger fleet, prioritizing submarines and prepositioning munitions and fuel in the South China Sea. There are other steps to be taken, let me emphasize now. – The Hill

Tom Rogan writes: Its rosy rhetoric is utterly undermined by its own espionage. Chinese spies are globally tasked with stealing whatever they cannot more easily buy. They do so without regard for intellectual property laws or the innovative efforts of others. They do so because Xi Jinping regards China’s innovation as the critical component of his nation’s long-term economic development and global political supremacy. And as Xi further obliterates domestic entrepreneurship in order to centralize the Communist Party’s power, his need to steal technology from abroad will only increase. Put simply, Akerboom isn’t saying anything controversial. And China has no credible rebuttal. – Washington Examiner

Asia

Indonesia’s military chief on Tuesday dismissed a separatist group claim that they had killed more than a dozen government soldiers who were searching for a New Zealand pilot taken hostage by the rebels in the restive Papua region. – Associated Press

For connecting to the outside world, Matsu’s 14,000 residents rely on two submarine internet cables leading to Taiwan’s main island. The National Communications Commission, citing the island’s telecom service, blamed two Chinese ships for cutting the cables. It said a Chinese fishing vessel is suspected of severing the first cable some 50 kilometers (31 miles) out at sea. Six days later, on Feb. 8, a Chinese cargo ship cut the second, NCC said. – Associated Press

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang will visit the Philippines this week to boost ties and tackle regional security issues as the Southeast Asian nation bolsters its defense alliance with the US. – Bloomberg

The U.S. commander of the Indo-Pacific region dismissed the prevailing assessment for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027. – Washington Examiner

Yingtai Lung writes: Taiwan is set to hold a pivotal presidential election in January, and the question of whether to confront China or pursue conciliation will have significant implications for us all in the months ahead. If the K.M.T. wins, tension with China might ease; if the D.P.P. retains power, who knows? Mr. Chen says it won’t matter anyway: The United States and China decide our fate. – New York Times

Africa

On the fourth day of a lethal power struggle between Sudan’s top two generals, the situation of many of the country’s 45 million people was getting increasingly desperate. – Wall Street Journal

With the midday sun high over Chad’s capital N’Djamena, Alhadj Barh embraced his wife for the first time in more than two years. It marked a new start for a man who, until earlier that day, had been in jail for fighting in a rebel army accused of killing the president. – Reuters

Japan’s defense ministry has begun preparations to evacuate its citizens from Sudan amid deadly fighting, a top government spokesperson said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Eight Nigerian secondary school students kidnapped by gunmen in northern Kaduna state two weeks ago escaped from their captors and were found by villagers who alerted security forces on Tuesday, the state’s internal security commissioner said. – Reuters

The World Health Organization’s chief called on Tuesday for the parties in the conflict in Sudan to provide access to medical facilities to all those requiring care, warning that medical supplies and personnel in the capital are running low. – Reuters

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said on Tuesday it was nearly impossible to provide humanitarian services around the Sudanese capital Khartoum and warned the country’s health system was at risk of collapse. – Reuters

Swiss prosecutors said Tuesday they have charged a former interior minister of Gambia with crimes against humanity for his alleged role in years of repression by the west African country’s security forces against opponents of its longtime dictator. – Associated Press

A 24-hour cease-fire between Sudan’s military and a paramilitary group appeared to be only partially observed in the capital Khartoum, indicating the deadly conflict for control of the North African country is far from over. – Bloomberg

Sudan’s capital was rocked by multiple airstrikes early Wednesday after a proposed cease-fire to halt four days of fighting between the army and a paramilitary group failed to hold. – Bloomberg

Jeffrey Feltman writes: Until now, Sudan’s civilians have faced a unified front in Burhan and Hemedti. Assuming it survives, it is conceivable that a civilian authority will be able to better face down a possibly divided and battered security apparatus less able or willing to enforce its rule. Such an outcome may prove unlikely. But it is the only glimmer of hope one can find in this awful tragedy. – Washington Post

Ariel Cohen writes: Russia’s influence in Africa remains purely disruptive and predatory. The Kremlin will use Wagner as a cudgel to secure natural resources across Africa and push the U.S. out, just as they evicted France. To keep up, Washington should expand diplomatic engagement, intelligence operations, and sanctioning of all entities linked to Wagner in Africa. The U.S. should launch, with its allies, a robust program of military training and arms sales to boost pro-Western governments in the areas where China, Russia, and ISIS are on the prowl. – The Hill

Bobby Ghosh writes: Hamdok managed all that despite having to work with the military in a transitional government, a cumbersome arrangement that gave the men in fatigues too much authority. Burhan had him removed, arrested, then reinstated. Eventually, Hamdok resigned in frustration. Imagine how much more Hamdok, or someone like him, might achieve without interference or intimidation. Impoverished by decades of misrule by the military, Sudan needs Burhan and Hemedti to do more than just lay down their weapons. It needs them to fade away. – Bloomberg

Michael Rubin writes: By casting aspersions at Somaliland, it appears less the State Department is interested in democracy and more that it wants to distract from any substantive waste, fraud, and abuse investigation into its recent Somalia funding. Africans deserve to live terror free, and by the same standards of security that the rest of the world enjoys or aspires to achieve. Increasingly it seems that, for Biden, Black Lives Matter, except in Africa. – American Enterprise Institute

United States

As the U.S. government scrambles to protect classified documents following a leak of highly classified material on social media, some officials are expressing concern the effort will go too far, curtailing legitimate access for those who depend on sensitive information to do their jobs. – Wall Street Journal

After spending over two years in digital exile, former President Donald Trump made his return to Instagram on Tuesday. – Washington Examiner

Former Gov. Chris Christie slammed former President Donald Trump’s character over hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels. – Washington Examiner

Editorial: Mr. Trump these days attacks Republicans more than Democrats. On Tuesday he trashed his former chief of staff Mick Mulvaney as a “born loser” and “perhaps the dumbest person, along with John Bolton, working at the White House.” So why did he appoint them? If he gets elected President again, who would volunteer for such abuse by working for him? Maybe he can ask Mr. Iger for a hand. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The Air Force has removed the intelligence mission from the unit where a 21-year-old Air National Guardsman had access to potentially hundreds of classified documents leaked over the internet, service officials revealed Tuesday. – The Hill

As technological improvements make drones smaller, more affordable and harder to detect, manufacturers of counter-drone technologies say defenses need to be effective regardless of type, aka “drone agnostic.” – Defense News

As countries look to strengthen their space capabilities, the U.S. Department of Defense is fielding more requests for the Space Force to export satellites and other capabilities. – Defense News

Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky said Tuesday it won’t sue the U.S. Army after the Government Accountability Office rejected its protest of the service’s decision to choose Textron’s Bell to build the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft. – Defense News

Lockheed Martin may not be able to deliver as many F-35s as it had hoped this year due to delays involving the fighters’ upcoming Technology Refresh 3 upgrades. – Defense News

The U.S. Navy’s fleet would never reach the statutorily required 355 ships under two of the three scenarios outlined in the service’s latest long-range shipbuilding plan. – Defense News