Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

President Trump and his advisers are looking at resuming limited military strikes in Iran in addition to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a way to break a stalemate in peace talks, according to officials and people familiar with the situation. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. military would blockade the Strait of Hormuz sets up a risky new showdown that could draw American forces into a prolonged struggle to control the strategic chokepoint while compounding the global economic damage caused by the conflict. – Wall Street Journal

Iran survived five weeks of punishing U.S. and Israeli bombing with most of the tools it needs to make a nuclear bomb intact, officials and experts say, posing a challenge for U.S. negotiators as the issue once again bedevils talks with Tehran. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. has destroyed most of Iran’s navy. But not the one Tehran uses to control the Strait of Hormuz. The regular navy operated Iran’s big battleships largely for prestige and occasional long-range deployments. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. sent two destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time during the war, triggering a tense confrontation Saturday while high-level American negotiators were preparing to meet with their Iranian counterparts in Pakistan in a long-shot attempt to make peace. – Wall Street Journal

The few ships that are passing through the Strait of Hormuz are subject to a new regime of routes, permissions and fees known in the industry as the “Tehran Tollbooth.” – Wall Street Journal

While the Middle East was breathing a sigh of relief at the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, a big-money battle was raging at Polymarket. It revolved around the question: Had American forces entered Iran? – Wall Street Journal

In just six weeks, the Iran War has shattered a system of global trade that has enriched people and nations for more than a century: the freedom to sail the open seas. – Wall Street Journal

Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles in its arsenal that it could use by retrieving launchers from underground storage areas, according to American officials familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration arrested and said it would deport the son of an Iranian woman who gained fame as a spokeswoman for the Iranian militants who stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979. – New York Times

Vice President JD Vance summed up the failure of 21 hours of negotiations with Iran in one sentence: “They have chosen not to accept our terms.” – New York Times

A U.S. naval blockade of Iran is a major, open-ended military endeavor that could trigger fresh retaliation from Tehran and put tremendous strain on an already ​fragile ceasefire, experts say. – Reuters

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said ​on Sunday that ‌any military vessels attempting to approach the ​Strait of Hormuz ​will be considered a ⁠violation of ​the two-week U.S. ceasefire ​and be dealt with harshly and decisively. – Reuters

Iran expects to restore most ​damaged refining and ‌distribution facilities to 70–80% of their pre-attack ​capacity within one ​to two months, a ⁠senior oil official ​said, as authorities ​work to recover from a wave of strikes on ​energy infrastructure. – Reuters

The U.S. military said on Saturday that it had started “setting conditions” for clearing ​mines in the Strait of Hormuz, with two U.S. warships ‌passing through the key waterway. – Reuters

A senior Iranian source said on Saturday the U.S. had agreed to release Iranian frozen assets ​held in Qatar and other foreign banks, but a U.S. official swiftly denied the assertion. – Reuters

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is still recovering from severe facial and leg injuries suffered in the airstrike that killed his father at the beginning of the war, three people close to his inner circle told Reuters. – Reuters

Iran has been in touch with ​Lebanon to make ‌sure ceasefire commitments were being respected on ​all fronts, the ​Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson ⁠told state TV ​on Saturday from ​Islamabad, where talks involving senior U.S. and Iranian officials are ​taking place ​to end their six-week-old war. – Reuters

Editorial: “Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so,” Mr. Trump wrote Sunday. He was played to get the cease-fire, and if oil won’t flow there’s no reason to ease pressure on the regime. Oil exports are a better target than Mr. Trump’s misguided threats last week to destroy Iranian “civilization” or all of its power plants. As the President said in his first term, the U.S. shouldn’t start a war it doesn’t intend to win. His challenge now is to prove to Iran’s regime he meant what he said. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Soleimani was the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force from 1998 until his death in a U.S.-led strike ordered by President Donald Trump in 2020. As head of the Guard’s most powerful unit, Soleimani oversaw a nexus of terrorists, funding and training foreign terrorist organizations and militias throughout the Middle East. He personally met and advised top operatives from Hezbollah, al Qaeda, Hamas, and other groups that spread havoc and misery throughout the Middle East. They looked to Soleimani and his Quds Force for support and, at times, sanctuary. Few men had more American blood on their hands. – Washington Examiner

Seth Cropsey and Shay Khatiri write: Diplomacy and war are different means in pursuit of the same objectives, and it’s important for the world’s greatest superpower not to cede to the demands of a terrorist state. The U.S. shouldn’t abandon its wartime objectives. If Iran accepts these objectives during diplomatic talks, great. If not, the administration should resume the strikes until its objectives are met rather than compromise with an adversary that is militarily, economically and politically outmatched. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: Is the world at one of those tipping-point moments that Kissinger imagined? When talking about the Middle East, it’s usually wise to bet against such hopeful outcomes. For 47 years, Iranian leaders have been making bad choices, often matched by the U.S. and Israel. But still, this weekend’s images from Islamabad — of an American vice president and Iranian parliamentary leader talking through the night about the shape of a possible deal — had a quality at once of both impossibility and inevitability. – Washington Post

Mark A. Fowler writes: Even if an agreement is eventually reached, based on the multiple versions of proposed 10- or 15-point “frameworks” floated before the meeting in Pakistan, it is hard to envisage anything more than a short-lived cessation of hostilities. To achieve a remotely workable peace, the Trump administration must be clear, specific and, yes, flexible in its terms. But even that might not be sufficient if Iran won’t drop its maximalist demands. The more likely outcome is both sides declaring victory and the U.S. withdrawing, leaving the Persian Gulf, and the Iranian people in a severe state of flux, at the mercy of an enraged, wounded regime. – Washington Post 

Eli Lake writes: The cliché about the Islamic Republic of Iran is that it has never won a war, but never lost a negotiation. Over the weekend in Pakistan, that diplomatic winning streak ran into a brick wall named J.D. Vance. Despite coming into the talks demanding everything from war reparations to military control of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian delegation left Islamabad with nothing. “They have chosen not to accept our terms,” the vice president told reporters in Islamabad on Saturday before departing for Washington. “I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America.” Vance’s message was backed up by President Donald Trump, who told reporters over the weekend, “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me. And the reason is because we’ve won.” – The Free Press

Dominic Green writes: The administration is also fighting its enemy’s war. This, too, is both an old and a new way of fighting. The Middle Eastern way of war modernized without adopting the Westphalian framework. The postcolonial state system is weak. The religious and ethnic enmities that preceded the interlude of European state-making are strong. While digital war can be waged around the clock, Middle Eastern war retains a calendrical rhythm. As Iran and Iraq learned in the 1980s, state-to-state warfare cannot resolve the implacable rivalry of Shias and Sunnis. The Westphalian system does not allow for being simultaneously at war and peace with another state, but the Middle Eastern way of politics is built for it. – Washington Examiner

David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: The Bushehr nuclear power plant complex is surrounded by multiple AAA positions.  Iran should dismantle these AAA positions near Bushehr, creating a demilitarized zone extending a greater distance from the site perimeter, reducing the chance of an accidental strike against the reactor site.  Both Israel and the United States have made it clear to both Iran and Russia that the Bushehr reactor is not a target, but AAA that has or could fire at their planes is another matter. – Institute for Science and International Security

Alex Vatanka writes: For now, the two sides have chosen to pause. But the pause is conditional, limited, and reversible. It rests on assumptions that the other side will moderate its demands, that negotiations can produce incremental progress, and that escalation can be contained. What is clear is that the war has already altered the strategic landscape. Iran has demonstrated an ability to absorb pressure and generate leverage in ways that complicate traditional assumptions. And the US has shown that while it can escalate, it cannot easily impose outcomes on its own terms unless it wages another forever war in the Middle East, which Trump so vehemently claims he is against. This mutual recognition is what made the ceasefire possible. Whether it will be enough to make lasting peace possible is another question entirely. – Middle East Institute

Sara Bazoobandi writes: At the moment of greatest danger, the Iranian government has built a cage for the Iranians rather than a shelter. Iran’s internet architecture endangers its citizens. The United States, which justified its military intervention partly on the grounds of Iranian oppression, should make the restoration of internet access explicit in its demands in any negotiation with the Islamic Republic. European governments, which stood apart from the military campaign while invoking human rights as a core foreign policy value, have no credible reason to remain silent on a blackout of this magnitude. They also must make internet freedom a condition of any diplomatic or economic engagement with Tehran. Moreover, technology companies like Starlink can provide Iranians with subsidized terminals and fee waivers. The infrastructure to help Iranians exists. What has been missing is the will to use it. – War on the Rocks

Hezbollah

One of the big surprises of the war now engulfing the Middle East has been the intensity of attacks by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on neighboring Israel after it held its fire for more than a year. – New York Times 

Israeli forces say they discovered a Hezbollah weapons stash inside a hospital in Lebanon this weekend. The Israel Defense Forces carried out the operation in Lebanon’s Bint Jbeil municipality. Images shared with Fox News show weapons, ammunition and explosives that Israel says were found within a hospital in the area. – FOX News

A rocket fired by Hezbollah toward northern Israel on Friday struck the remains of a Byzantine-era church in Nahariya, damaging its modern, protective structure, the Israel Antiquities Authority (IAA) told The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post

Supporters of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group poured out into the streets of Lebanon over the weekend in demonstrations against the first in-person negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on Tuesday in Washington, Israeli and Lebanese media reported on Sunday. – Times of Israel

Turkey

French President Emmanuel Macron said ​on Saturday that ‌he had discussed the Iran ceasefire talks and the ​situation in Ukraine ​with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. – Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Sunday accused Israel of carrying out atrocities against Palestine and Lebanon and threatened potential military action against the Jewish state, similar to its past interventions in Karabakh and Libya. – Jerusalem Post

Ben Menachem, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, cautions that Turkey is emerging, in his view, as an increasing strategic threat to Israel. He argues that the policies led by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan go far beyond public rhetoric. According to him, “Turkey is the new Iran.” – Jerusalem Post

Bradley Martin and Liram Koblentz-Stenzler write: The pattern is clear. Turkey is increasingly acting on its own terms — even when that puts it at odds with the alliance. Turkey’s regional posture tells a consistent story. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has positioned himself as a leading voice in the Muslim world, and Turkey’s actions increasingly follow that direction — even when it diverges from U.S. interests. In 2015, a U.S. Delta Force raid on the compound of an Islamic State financial operative uncovered evidence linking ISIS oil revenues to networks operating through Turkey. – Washington Examiner

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan has sent fighter jets and other military forces to Saudi Arabia to boost security under a defence pact between the two countries, the Saudi defence ministry said on Saturday, as Islamabad hosted talks ​aimed at ending the Iran war. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia said on ​Sunday it ‌had summoned Iraq’s ambassador over ​what ​it described as threats ⁠targeting the ​kingdom and ​other Gulf states from drones launched ​from Iraqi ​territory. – Reuters

Saudi Arabia has restored full oil pumping capacity through the East-West ​pipeline to about seven million barrels per day, it ‌said on Sunday, days after providing an assessment of damage on its energy sector from attacks during the Iran conflict. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

Libya’s two rival legislative bodies have approved the country’s first unified state budget in more ‌than a decade, its central bank said in a statement on Saturday. – Reuters

A sailing vessel ​was approached ‌by a skiff with ​armed ​men on board ⁠54 nautical ​miles southwest ​of Yemen’s Hodeidah, United Kingdom ​Maritime ​Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on ‌Sunday. – Reuters

Daniel Benaim writes: Look at India, where President Trump sent Sergio Gor, one of his closest advisers, as US ambassador to heal badly damaged ties. On a recent visit, several Indians told me how important and stabilising a signal that was. Gor is now working to bring Trump to India. This administration should move fast to nominate capable, trusted officials — whether diplomats, business leaders, retired officers or even political allies — to key regional capitals. In a few months, attention will shift to the midterms and an uncertain Senate majority. The window is closing. Trump may not be wedded to conventional habits of foreign policy. Fair enough. But there’s a reason countries since ancient times have appointed ambassadors abroad. It works. – Financial Times

China

For years, Hong Kong has flourished as China’s hub for helping Iran survive punishing sanctions, much to the frustration of U.S. officials who have engaged in a whack-a-mole campaign to shut down billions of dollars in trade. – Wall Street Journal

After years of uneven attempts to play global peacemaker, China’s role in this week’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire suggests that its long bid for influence finally may be starting to land. But with the truce still fragile, Beijing is in largely uncharted territory and remains cautious about taking on a messy war of America’s making. – Washington Post

The war in the Middle East has disrupted oil and gas supplies, jolting governments around the world to confront the urgent need for power grids that can withstand future shocks. But for many countries, the push to build grids based on renewable energy is creating a new dependence on technology from China. – New York Times

American intelligence agencies have obtained information that China in recent weeks may have sent a shipment of shoulder-fired missiles to Iran for its conflict with the United States and Israel, according to U.S. officials. – New York Times

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Monday said China should take on a more substantial role with issues including climate change, security, defense ​and the fight against inequality, adding that Europe will also have to ‌redouble its efforts as the U.S. withdraws from leadership roles on many fronts. – Reuters

China on Sunday unveiled 10 new incentive measures for Taiwan, including easing tourist curbs, allowing in “healthy” television ​dramas and facilitating food sales, following a visit by the island’s opposition ‌leader. – Reuters

China said Sunday it would resume some ties it had suspended with Taiwan such as direct flights and imports of Taiwanese aquaculture products following a visit by the Beijing-friendly opposition leader of the self-ruled island. – Associated Press

China did not play a decisive role in bringing about a two-week ceasefire in the Iran conflict, according to a social media account affiliated with China Central Television. – Bloomberg

Editorial: Taiwan checks about every box on any list of U.S. national interests. Mr. Xi’s control of Taiwan would allow his military to be a Pacific power and snap in half the American defense perimeter from Japan to the Philippines. The economic stakes are enormous given Taiwan is the center of the world’s advanced semiconductor production. If Mr. Trump wants to be a Pacific peacemaker, his best openings aren’t in Beijing but across the Strait. Taiwan’s President Lai talks of “peace through strength.” The U.S. interest is in backing up that urgency with faster arms sales, weapons co-production, and a clear statement that Taiwan isn’t on the menu at next month’s Xi summit. – Wall Street Journal

Asia

Oil rose back above $100 a barrel and Asian equities fell, as the collapse of the U.S.-Iran peace talks poured cold water on hopes of an end to the fighting that has roiled markets, threatening to slow global growth and fuel inflation. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. and Australia joined the Philippines for their second joint maritime ​exercises in the South China Sea this year, amid tensions with ‌China in the disputed waterway. – Reuters

Australia on Monday said a woman would lead its army for the first time in history, as part of a reshuffle of ​the country’s defence force leadership. – Reuters

Cyclone Vaianu made landfall in New Zealand’s ​North Island on Sunday, triggering floods, power outages and forcing hundreds to evacuate. – Reuters

Taiwan’s engagement with China on looser controls proposed by Beijing for trade ‌and tourism should be led by the government rather than private party-to-party contacts, a senior Taiwanese security official said on Monday. – Reuters

Malaysia’s Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) said it has detained two ​tankers for allegedly conducting an illegal ship-to-ship transfer of ‌about 700,000 litres of diesel off the island of Penang over the weekend. – Reuters

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit Brunei and Malaysia this week, continuing diplomatic efforts to secure fuel supplies ​from Asian allies after disruptions caused by the Middle East ‌conflict. – Reuters

Australia and the U.S. have committed more than A$5 billion ($3.5 billion) to back a range of critical mineral projects, nearly double the amount pledged when the two countries struck ​a co-operation agreement six months ago, Canberra said on Sunday. – Reuters

The Philippines said on Sunday that any decision to pursue oil and gas cooperation ​with China would be made strictly in line ‌with its constitution and respect its sovereignty. – Reuters

Vietnam has decided to extend the suspension of taxes on fuels until the ​end of June from April 15 ‌to stabilise the domestic market, the country’s parliamentary office said on Sunday, as the Iran war continues to ​disrupt supplies. – Reuters

Southeast Asian nations called on the US and Iran to continue negotiations to end their conflict after talks over the weekend fell through. “We urge the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran to continue negotiations that will lead to the permanent end of the conflict and lasting peace and stability in the region,” foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations said in a statement on Monday. – Bloomberg

The Philippines on Monday said it confirmed that Chinese boats last year used cyanide that threatens the stability of the Southeast Asian nation’s military outpost in the disputed South China Sea, as well as the safety of its soldiers. – Bloomberg

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged her ruling party to accelerate talks on constitutional reform — a move that could make her the first leader to achieve it, but which risks alienating voters if she’s unable to generate broader public support. – Bloomberg

Africa

Pope Leo XIV is heading off on a four-country tour of Africa, a continent of growing importance for the Catholic Church. But the trip risks being overshadowed by the U.S.-Iran conflict, where the American pontiff has become a leading critic of Washington’s resort to war. – Wall Street Journal

Millions of people in Sudan are surviving on just one meal a day, as the country’s food crisis deepens and threatens to spread, according to ​a report published on Monday by a group of non-governmental organisations. – Reuters

Djibouti’s President Ismael Omar Guelleh has won re-election with 97.8% of the vote, ‌state-owned Radio Television Djibouti said on Saturday, handing him a sixth term that extends his 27-year rule over the small but strategically located East African country. – Reuters

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te will visit Eswatini next week, his office said on Monday, the ​island’s last remaining diplomatic ally in Africa. – Reuters

Benin’s finance minister Romuald Wadagni was expected to coast to victory in a presidential election on ​Sunday, buoyed by strong economic growth and the absence of a credible challenger amid mounting fears over jihadist violence. – Reuters

At least 200 people are feared dead after Nigerian military jets struck a village market while pursuing Islamist militants in the northeast of the country on Saturday night, a councillor for the area and residents said on Sunday. – Reuters

Britain’s National Crime Agency said on Saturday it had charged a 27-year-old ​Sudanese man with endangering life after four ‌migrants died while attempting to cross the Channel from France to Britain on a small boat ​this week. – Reuters

Nigeria has convicted nearly 400 Islamist militants following mass trials held this week in the capital ​Abuja, the country’s Attorney General said late on Friday. – Reuters

Mali supports Morocco’s autonomy plan for ‌Western Sahara, Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said on Friday, becoming the latest African country to endorse Rabat’s vision for ending a 50-year conflict with the Algeria-backed Polisario Front. – Reuters

Turkey’s deep-sea drilling vessel Cagri Bey arrived off ​the coast of Mogadishu ‌on Friday to launch the country’s first overseas deep-sea oil exploration ​project. – Reuters

Botswana’s President Duma Boko is traveling to Oman to sign cooperation deals including over natural resources as his government strives to boost its stake in leading diamond company De Beers. – Bloomberg

Marcel Niat Njifenji, Cameroon’s pioneer senate president who ruled the institution for 13 years, has died one month after he was replaced, Abdoulaye Aboubakary, the new Senate leader said in an emailed statement. – Bloomberg

North America

In a country long plagued by drug-linked violence, Omar García Harfuch is inspiring a different kind of fixation.  The square-jawed face of Mexico’s anti-cartel campaign has become an unlikely sex symbol—his manly likeness splashed on blankets, reimagined in AI-generated fantasies and recast as a caped crusader. – Wall Street Journal

President Miguel Díaz-Canel of Cuba on Sunday defiantly blamed his nation’s economic crisis on the United States amid escalating tensions driven by the Trump administration’s crippling energy blockade of the island. – New York Times

Christine Fréchette, Quebec’s former minister of economy, was selected as the new leader of the French-speaking province on Sunday after a vote by members of the governing party. – New York Times

Haiti declared three ​days of national mourning ‌on Sunday, a day after a deadly stampede killed 25 people ​during an annual celebration thronged ​by students and visitors at ⁠its Laferriere Citadel tourist ​attraction. – Reuters

Costa Rica on Saturday received the first group of migrants from other countries deported from the ​United States under an agreement signed in March between ‌the two countries, local authorities said. – Reuters

The U.S. military said Sunday that it blew up two boats accused of smuggling drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean, killing a total of five people and leaving one survivor, as the Trump administration pursues its campaign against alleged traffickers in Latin America while preparing a naval blockade of Iranian ports. – Associated Press

Cuba is open to US investment in oil exploration even as it’s ready to fight any US invasion with a full mobilization of its armed forces and people, President Miguel Diaz-Canel said. – Bloomberg

Diego Da Rin and Renata Segura write: Planning for that moment must start now. The U.N. political mission to Haiti has already been tasked with helping Port-au-Prince think about how to convince gangs to abandon their weapons. It can start by empowering the National Commission for Disarmament, Dismantlement and Reintegration, which was recently reactivated after years of lying dormant. […] Haiti can’t drone strike its way to peace — especially not when bombing gang targets might mean killing children. Bringing gang members back into society won’t be easy. But force alone will only prolong the country’s ordeal. – New York Times

Cybersecurity

Top White House officials are racing to address potential cybersecurity threats posed by the latest artificial-intelligence models, highlighting how AI’s perils are becoming a top priority for the Trump administration. – Wall Street Journal

At a military parade in Beijing in September, President Xi Jinping and his special guests, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, watched as Chinese forces showed off several models of drones that could autonomously fly alongside fighter jets into battle. – New York Times

South Africa on Friday unveiled a draft national AI policy, seeking public comment on sweeping proposals to regulate and accelerate AI adoption. – Reuters

A private spy firm founded by former members of Israeli intelligence has confirmed its involvement in a sting operation targeting state officials ​and private interests in Cyprus, saying it wanted to expose ‌corruption. – Reuters

British financial regulators are holding urgent talks with the government’s ​cyber security agency and major banks to assess risks ‌posed by the latest artificial intelligence model from Anthropic, the Financial Times reported on Sunday. – Reuters

OpenAI said on Friday it had identified a security issue involving a third-party developer tool called ​Axios and is taking steps to protect the process ‌that certifies its macOS applications are legitimate OpenAI apps. – Reuters

After a year-long push to rationalize its previously uncoordinated AI efforts, the Defense Intelligence Agency is institutionalizing its new, more centralized and more efficient approach, the DIA’s chief AI officer said Thursday. – Breaking Defense

Jon R. Lindsay writes: Iran’s relative disadvantage in cyberwarfare may not matter much in the long run. Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Persian Gulf states and its closing of the Strait of Hormuz were far more destabilizing than its cyberwarfare has been and seem to have given it the ability to win relatively favorable terms in the recent cease-fire. If combat resumes, the United States and Israel may find it harder to repeat their early successes as Iran shores up its defenses and adapts. Cyberwizardry cannot perform strategic miracles — and it certainly cannot rescue governments from political blunders. – New York Times

Megan McArdle writes: Until now, most people have been thinking of AI policy primarily in domestic terms, as a question of how the U.S. will let it develop, or whether the country will allow it to develop at all. That narrow frame blinds us to the most important question: Will the nation’s future be governed by American values and American institutions, or by the CCP? If we get that question wrong, the others won’t matter much. – Washington Post