Fdd's overnight brief

Russia

Seven weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has appointed a new top commander, Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, in a major reshuffle. He assumes oversight of the campaign amid mounting civilian deaths, widespread destruction and slow advances, with Russian forces mired in logistical problems and military blunders, according to Western officials and analysts. – Washington Post 

Russian forces bombarded several towns in eastern Ukraine on Sunday, destroying an airport and damaging several civilian targets, as the war careens toward a pivotal new phase. The shift of the war and fears of full-scale military confrontation on open terrain prompted Ukrainian officials to again call for Western alliances to step up weapons supply efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield. – Washington Post 

European leaders, including British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, visited Kyiv and announced the reopening of embassies in the capital Saturday in a diplomatic show of support a day after a devastating attack at a Ukrainian rail station. – Washington Post 

Ukraine and Russia poured reinforcements into eastern Ukraine this weekend, preparing for what are likely to become the war’s biggest battles as refugees continued to flee the looming Russian assault. – Wall Street Journal 

Ukrainian authorities are urging citizens in the separatist east to flee as the military battens down for a renewed assault by Russian forces to capture the region. – New York Times  

The U.S. and its European allies are imposing a widening array of economic penalties on Russia in punishment for its invasion of Ukraine, and pressure for tougher action is rising after Ukraine alleged that Russian forces committed potential war crimes against civilians. Punitive measures rolled out so far target Russia’s financial sector, major companies, President Vladimir Putin, his daughters, other government officials, members of Russia’s elite and the Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline. The U.S. and European governments say more are forthcoming. – Wall Street Journal 

Hundreds of thousands of professional workers, many of them young, have left Russia since its invasion of Ukraine, accelerating an exodus of business talent and further threatening an economy targeted by Western sanctions. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia reorganized the command of its flagging offensive in Ukraine on Saturday, selecting for the mission a general accused of ordering strikes on civilian neighborhoods in Syria, as Western nations poured more weapons into the country in anticipation of a renewed Russian assault in the east. – New York Times  

Japan is stepping up its rhetoric and economic measures against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, furthering Moscow’s economic isolation and joining the United States and European nations in calling for investigations into accusations of war crimes. – New York Times  

Trucking firms in Ukraine say they are increasingly strained by wartime difficulties, especially growing fuel shortages, that threaten their ability to operate as drivers navigate roads that run close to rocket attacks, artillery shelling and airstrikes. Recent Russian missile attacks on an oil refinery and several fuel depots around the country have reduced Ukraine’s already limited diesel supplies and raised fresh challenges for truckers delivering food, medicines and cargo. – Wall Street Journal 

Russia has tapped a new Ukraine war commander to take centralized control of the next phase of battle after its costly failures in the opening campaign and carnage for Ukrainian civilians. U.S. officials don’t see one man making a difference in Moscow’s prospects. – Associated Press 

Austrian chancellor Karl Nehammer will on Monday become the first European leader to meet Russian president Vladimir Putin since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine began six weeks ago. – Financial Times 

Russia has complained to Turkey over its sale of Bayraktar TB2 armed drones to Ukraine, a high level Turkish bureaucrat said on Friday, but added the sales were by a private Turkish company and not state-to-state deals. – Reuters  

Russia lost a colonel, yet another death of a high-ranking military official roughly six weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. – Washington Examiner 

The U.K. imposed sanctions on Vladimir Putin’s daughters, following the same move by the U.S. and tightening the squeeze on the Russian president following the invasion of Ukraine. – Bloomberg  

Russia’s finance minister said the country would take legal action if it’s forced to default on its external debt, the Izvestia newspaper reported on Monday. – Business Insider  

More European Union sanctions on Russia are an option, the bloc’s top diplomat said on Monday when asked if the EU was ready to consider a Russian oil embargo in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. – Reuters  

Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatiana Moskalkova confirmed on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had carried out a prisoner exchange. – Reuters  

Sanctions and inflation are complicating and delaying the ability of the Russian Defense Ministry to purchase defense products, and of Russian defense companies to meet orders, the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post  

Moscow withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council after 93 nations, including Israel, supported a General Assembly resolution to suspend its council membership as a protest statement against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.d of Russian defense companies to meet orders, the Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post  

Editorial: But Mr. Obama’s weakness toward Russia, reinforced by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is one reason Mr. Putin felt he could act with increasing aggressiveness and get away with it. No one should believe Mr. Obama’s varnished Russia history. – Wall Street Journal 

Thomas L. Friedman writes: In sum, having the Russian people produce a better leader is a necessary condition for the world to produce a new, more resilient global order to replace the post-Cold War order, which Putin has now shattered. What is also necessary, though, is that America be a model of democracy and sustainability that others want to emulate. – New York Times  

Adrian Karatnycky writes: Transferring Russian cash to Ukraine would require American leadership. The U.S., U.K., Canada and perhaps Japan are most likely to endorse such an initiative. But countries like Germany and France likely would require significant persuasion. This means that the Biden administration would need to take the first step. And if the administration proves reluctant, the idea would likely resonate among U.S. lawmakers and voters. – Wall Street Journal  

Jeffrey Scott Shapiro writes: Still, that so many leading America-firsters are parroting the Kremlin’s narrative suggests the movement has taken a dangerous turn. The reasonable goal of reducing military adventurism has regressed toward extreme isolationism, producing a self-described antiwar movement that preaches peace while callously ignoring war crimes. – Wall Street Journal 

Theodore Lapkin writes: Mounting evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine gives rise to the question of what legal punishment, if any, will be meted out against the perpetrators. But it’s unlikely that redress of any substance will come from the formal institutions of the organized international community. – New York Sun 

Janusz Bugajski writes: Western governments are failing to grasp the significance of this historic moment. Incremental measures to assist Ukraine and sanction Russia allow the aggressor to make military and economic adjustments to stay afloat. The time for deimperializing the Russian Federation is here, not through Western military intervention but by massively bolstering Ukraine’s armed forces, cutting all trade and energy links with Russia, and helping this artificial state to embroil itself in internal conflicts. – Washington Examiner  

Dennis Ross writes: It was not provocation that led Putin to invade Ukraine. It was his reading of Ukrainian and Western weakness. Others — whether China’s President Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, or Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — watch, as Putin did, for signs of U.S. strength, not weakness. The former makes them careful; the latter, aggressive. – The Hill  

Douglas London writes: The United States and its allies have the means to apply significant pressure in the shadows and asymmetrically. What Washington can’t afford to do is expect that incentives might lure Putin into cooperation. […]Neither can the United States afford to coast on existing sanctions without escalating the pressure for which the Russian leader might otherwise adapt and survive if given the breathing space. For years, Putin has employed covert means to keep the West off balance, divide and conquer, stress its political fabric, and redirect its focus inward. The time has come to return the favor—and the United States has the means to do so. – Foreign Affairs 

Stephen Kotkin writes: Others will continue to debate whether great-power conflict and security dilemmas are unending. Yet the important point here is not theoretical but historical: the contours of the modern world established by World War II persisted right through the great turn of 1979 and the lesser turn of 1989–91. Whether the world has now reached another greater or lesser turning point depends in large measure on how the war in Ukraine plays out, and on whether the West squanders its rediscovery of itself or consolidates it through renewal. – Foreign Affairs 

Mark Episkopos writes: Nevertheless, regime change remains a distant prospect; in the short to medium term, Putin will continue to respond to Western sanctions and aid to Ukraine by intensifying the Russian war effort until he succeeds in imposing a military solution. – The National Interest 

Afghanistan

All is not quiet on the Afghan front. A new claim by the Afghan National Resistance Front that terrorist groups are once again operating in Afghanistan underscores the dangers of a conflict classified as “worsening” by the Council on Foreign Relations — and with potentially critical impact on American interests. – New York Sun 

America’s top military officer conceded this week it is “possible” the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan contributed to Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine — an argument Republicans have made for weeks. – Washington Examiner  

Since coming to power in Afghanistan eight months ago, the Taliban have touted their success in repressing the Islamic State group, but the militants have expanded into neighboring Pakistan, stepping up attacks there. Analysts say IS has morphed into a borderless terrorist group, one of the deadliest in a region that has spawned many violent, radical organizations. – Associated Press 

Israel

When Avigdor Liberman, Israel’s Soviet-born finance minister, condemned the apparent atrocities in Bucha, Ukraine, this past week, he was careful not to blame Russia. – New York Times  

The current surge in terrorist attacks in Israel has been framed by Palestinian parties and militant groups as a logical consequence of the entrenchment of Israel’s 55-year occupation of the West Bank, of Israel’s control over sensitive religious sites in Jerusalem, and of the dwindling commitment from some key Arab leaders to the creation of a Palestinian state. – New York Times  

A burst of terrorist attacks on civilians and rising religious tensions in Jerusalem are testing Israel’s U.S.-backed policy of eschewing peace talks and trying instead to improve Palestinian quality of life while building deeper ties with Arab countries aligned against Iran. – Wall Street Journal 

The Israeli military says it has carried out more than 400 airstrikes in Syria and other parts of the Middle East since 2017 as part of a wide-ranging campaign targeting Iran and its allies, offering its fullest picture yet of its undeclared war with Tehran. – Wall Street Journal 

Israeli forces shot and killed two Palestinians, including an unarmed woman, in confrontations across Israel and the occupied West Bank on Sunday, Israeli and Palestinian officials said. It was the latest in a growing wave of violence that has broken out during the holy month of Ramadan. – Associated Press 

Once Israel launches a major pushback against Arab terror, the Western press is expected to ramp up coverage of the situation in that country. With it, sympathy in world capitals, expressed as at least 14 Israelis are killed by terrorists in less than two weeks, will almost certainly turn toward hostility. – New York Sun 

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Sunday condemned the overnight vandalism of the religious holy site of Joseph’s Tomb near the West Bank city of Nablus by Palestinian extremists, vowing to bring the perpetrators to justice. – Algemeiner  

Two Hasidim were shot in Shechem (Nablus) overnight Sunday as they tried to approach Joseph’s Tomb, which was vandalized the night before. The two claimed they were making their way to the compound in order to repair the damage from the vandalism. – Arutz Sheva 

Ziad Al-Nahala, leader of the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization, does not rule out the possibility of a military confrontation with Israel. – Arutz Sheva 

Four attacks with a total of 14 people killed within 15 days is already a wave of terror, in the Israeli media and psyche. But so far, the wave still defies clear description. There is no clear organizational connection between the attacks, or even a clear common motive. How it will be remembered has a lot to do with how it continues; whether it will peter out or escalate. – Haaretz 

A Palestinian woman was shot dead on Sunday by Israeli forces in Hebron, after stabbing a Border Police officer, according to Israeli authorities. – Haaretz 

Israel plans to rebuild 40 kilometers of its 470-kilometer West Bank security barrier in the northern Samaria area by replacing the wire fencing with nine-meter-high concrete blocks. – Jerusalem Post  

The government on Sunday approved the establishment of a committee to examine the removal of state benefits such as pensions and other grants from the families of citizens who’ve committed acts of terror. – Times of Israel  

Israel hopes the Biden administration’s reported decision to not remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps from the US terror blacklist could be a “dealbreaker” for Iran in talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, a senior official in the Prime Minister’s Office said Saturday. – Times of Israel  

Herb Keinon writes: That scenario is only remotely realistic if Netanyahu would either voluntarily give up his aspirations to lead the country again or be shown the door by his Likud colleagues, at which point perhaps Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White Party, or New Hope together with Yisrael Beytenu, might be willing to vote no confidence in the government and agree on another prime minister, and government, to lead the nation. – Jerusalem Post  

Benjamin Kerstein writes: Two decades of low-intensity conflict, missile fire and periodic mayhem have not changed this. Israelis today are, if anything, even less likely to give up on what little strategic depth they have in hopes of peace with an enemy they do not trust. Nonetheless, in the face of such an impasse, an eruption of nihilistic violence is morally reprehensible but not necessarily surprising. – New York Post 

Yossi Yehoshua writes: Police must also come up with their own new protocols for handling a terror event inside a civilian center that includes participation of special military forces. Other than their special anti-terror unit, all other police forces that were at the scene on Thursday seemed out of sorts. – Ynet 

Anna Ahronheim, Matthew Levitt, and Ghaith al-Omari write: Despite the heightened tensions and increased security presence in Israel and the West Bank over the past few weeks, Hamas has not threatened to fire rockets into Israel, nor has Palestinian Islamic Jihad threatened vengeance after some of its operatives were killed. For its part, Israel has refrained from instituting restrictions on Palestinians visiting the Temple Mount/al-Haram al-Sharif. It is clear that neither side wants a repeat of the May 2021 military conflict. Although the next month will be very tense, the pressure will probably taper off toward the end of Ramadan. Attacks during Passover are unlikely, as is a third intifada—most Palestinians do not want it or the Israeli crackdown that would follow. – Washington Institute  

Ido Levy writes: Overall, the recent attacks are a chilling reminder that IS can pose a real terrorist threat to Israel, albeit not an existential one. The IS threat has gone unaddressed in Israel or dismissed as a negligible concern. And while the Israeli response to the immediate security threat has been strong, the fact that the attacks caught the defense establishment by surprise should be seen as a failure. The same shortcomings in properly discerning and addressing the threat are also prevalent in Israel’s inadequate management of IS detainees. – Washington Institute

Khaled Abu Toameh writes: Meanwhile, there’s no overstating the impact of the ongoing incitement against Israel on these men. Although most of the incitement is taking place on social-media platforms, it is also coming straight from the horse’s mouth: Palestinian leaders in Ramallah, the Gaza Strip, Qatar and Lebanon. – Jerusalem Post  

Middle East & North Africa

Military commanders in eastern Libya said on Saturday they had suspended participation in a U.N.-backed joint military council, accusing the Tripoli-based government of failing to hand power to a new cabinet and calling for the road west to be closed. – Reuters 

Editorial: The withheld aid is only a fraction of the $1.3 billion in annual U.S. assistance to Egypt. If the Biden administration won’t be tougher, then it is up to Congress to firmly link U.S. assistance to sustained and genuine improvement on human rights. It could start with releasing political prisoners, including Mr. Abdel Fattah and others. To them, the United States must pledge: You will not be defeated. – Washington Post 

Robert Satloff writes: With the current administration, many Arabs point to multiple embarrassments. There is Iran’s practice of retaliating against Israeli attacks by targeting U.S. assets because it knows America won’t respond. […]Washington has limited its response to multiple Iranian missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, refusing to impose any direct cost on Iran for its aggression. The result is that, in the eyes of many Arabs, America’s impressive military assets throughout the Middle East are a decoy that masks a withdrawal of commitment and resolve. – Wall Street Journal 

China

China has accelerated an expansion of its nuclear arsenal because of a change in its assessment of the threat posed by the U.S., people with knowledge of the Chinese leadership’s thinking say, shedding new light on a buildup that is raising tension between the two countries. – Wall Street Journal 

Inflation in China picked up in March as soaring global commodity prices and lockdowns in major cities drove up prices for consumers and businesses. The overall inflationary picture in China remains far more benign than in the U.S. and other major economies, though, giving the government and central bank ample room to support the slowing economy with stimulus. – Wall Street Journal 

Editorial: For now at least, the invasion has awoken the West to Putin’s true nature. But the world still needs to admit that Xi is every bit as much an enemy of civilization. – New York Post 

Graham Allison and Fred Hu write: As Roosevelt put it at the signing of the peace treaty between Russia and Japan: “It’s a mighty good thing for Russia and a mighty good thing for Japan.” If Xi can take the lead to make peace in Ukraine, it would certainly be a mighty good thing for the world. – Washington Post 

Richard Holwill writes: It is also quite possible that the Chinese are nurturing a longer-term opportunity by staying close to the Russians through this crisis. The Chinese fully understand that when Putin’s war in Ukraine is over, Russia will be weakened, isolated and desperate. At that point, Putin could be motivated to lease or even sell large parts of the RFE to China. – The Hill 

Mike Gibbons writes: Finally, China is building illegal military bases in the South China Sea and is threatening to invade Taiwan. Domestically, the Uyghurs in Xinjiang and the Buddhists in Tibet face concentration camps, forced sterilization, and extermination. When Trump came into office, he was mocked for standing up to China. But he was right. He gave those of us in the business community who were concerned about China a voice, and it’s one of the reasons why I proudly served as the Ohio finance co-chair for his 2016 campaign. – Washington Examiner  

Anthony B. Kim writes: According to Washington’s latest Indo-Pacific Strategy document, “China’s coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific.” To achieve a more free and open region, the document points out that the U.S. will build coalitions by deepening treaty alliances and strengthening relationships with leading partners such as Taiwan, New Zealand, and Singapore. – Heritage Foundation  

Sean Durns writes: Nor are concerns about Chinese manipulation unwarranted. As Helberg highlights, “in recent years, researchers have noted instances of internet traffic being ‘rerouted’ through China, including a notable 2016 incident where communications between the United States and a Milan-based bank were transmitted to China.” The data traversing those cables, he warns, “could be compromised, shared with the government in Beijing, and then used to further Chinese state interests.” After all: There is no need to damage or destroy what you already own or can readily manipulate. – The National Interest  

Asia

The White House’s top Asia official is preparing to travel to the Solomon Islands in a rare high-level visit that underscores alarm in Washington over the Pacific nation’s security pact with China. – Financial Times 

Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison called federal elections for May 21 on Sunday, launching a come-from-behind battle to stay in power after three years rocked by floods, bushfires and the Covid-19 pandemic. – Agence France-Presse  

Indonesian President Joko Widodo appeared to dismiss a plan floated by senior cabinet official to extend his time in office as thousands of university students are set to protest in Jakarta over the move along with the rising costs of basic goods. – Bloomberg  

After reports of alleged war crimes in Ukraine by Russian forces, Japan said it will follow the European Union and Group of Seven countries and ban imports of Russian coal. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the country will secure alternative sources of energy in a speedy manner, although no time frame was given. But shifting away from Russian fuel will be easier said than done for resource-poor Japan. – Bloomberg  

Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte and Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the need to exercise restraint to maintain peace in the South China Sea, Manila’s presidential office said on Saturday. – Reuters 

Africa

A flurry of military coups across Africa has disrupted the U.S. strategy of enlisting local armies to counter Islamist extremists and other security threats. – Wall Street Journal 

The United States expressed concern on Friday about reports of ethnically motivated atrocities in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and called for an end to unlawful detentions based on ethnicity. – Reuters 

At least 12 soldiers and four paramilitary fighters were killed and 21 wounded in an attack on an army base in Burkina Faso’s insurgent-hit centre-north on Friday, the army said in a statement. – Reuters 

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress elected a former mayor who has been charged with corruption to a top post in one of its key regions, dealing a blow to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s efforts to clean up the party. – Bloomberg  

South Africa’s government extended a defense force mission to help combat piracy and other illicit activity in the Indian Ocean. – Bloomberg 

Cybersecurity

Senior officials at the European Commission were targeted last year with spy software designed by an Israeli surveillance firm, according to two EU officials and documentation reviewed by Reuters. – Reuters  

Finland reported an attack on government websites and a suspected airspace violation by Russian aircraft just as speculation mounts that the Nordic nation will opt to apply for membership in the NATO alliance. – Bloomberg 

Microsoft says it has shut down internet infrastructure that Russian state-backed hackers used to attack the networks of organizations in Ukraine as well as government agencies and think tanks in the U.S. and European Union. – CyberScoop