U.S. AID TO UKRAINE HAS NOT MATERIALLY SLOWED DELIVERY OF ARMS TO TAIWAN OR ISRAEL – NEW FDD “ARSENAL OF DEMOCRACY” REPORT

WASHINGTON, D.C., April 7, 2025 — The United States can fulfill its role as the “arsenal of democracy” and simultaneously arm Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, according to a comprehensive new report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). The report is the result of a nearly two-year review of 25 key weapons systems by CMPP Senior Research Analyst Ryan Brobst and Senior Director Bradley Bowman. They found that there has not been a material delay in the delivery of the systems to Taiwan or Israel because of U.S. support for Ukraine. However, they also found serious continued issues in the U.S. defense industrial base and arms transfer process that require urgent reform.

The report, “Arsenal of Democracy: Arming Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel While Strengthening the U.S. Industrial Base,” includes two major findings:

1. Don’t blame delays in deliveries to Taiwan or Israel on Ukraine: None of the examined systems experienced a delay in delivery of more than one year to Taiwan or Israel due to the commitment of that system to Ukraine. With smart decisions and reforms, the United States can continue to support all three partners simultaneously and indefinitely.

2. Serious problems remain in the U.S. defense industrial base and arms transfer process: For the 25 weapon systems examined, seven of the respective DIBs were assessed as strong, 14 require attention, and four are weak, demonstrating the need for additional reforms. The DOD contracting process often takes years to even award contracts to produce weapons for foreign partners, significantly delaying delivery timelines.

“The evidence shows claims that the United States cannot arm Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel simultaneously do not withstand scrutiny,” say Brobst and Bowman. “Nevertheless, serious weaknesses remain in the American defense industrial base and arms transfer process.”

“The Trump administration should focus on reviving the American arsenal of democracy and ensuring our key partners have the weapons they need to counter common adversaries. After all, providing arms to allies and partners is preferable and far less costly compared to sending American troops into wars that could have been prevented,” they say.

Why supporting Ukraine didn’t cause delays: The provision or potential provision of the examined weapon systems to Ukraine did not materially delay their provision to Taiwan or Israel because:

• The three partners have somewhat different needs due to variability in their geography, the capabilities of their adversaries, and the nature of the conflict in which they are or might be engaged;
• Where there is overlap in the needs of each partner, the respective production lines are often healthy and/or expanding;
• In several cases, the United States possesses a large inventory or stockpile of the relevant system;
• Most of the weapons Taipei and Jerusalem seek from Washington are being acquired through contracts for new systems rather than the transfer of older systems.

Continued weakness in the DIB: The report identifies three primary reasons 72 percent of examined weapons had an associated DIB that was assessed as requiring attention or being weak:

• In some instances, production of a particular system or munition had ceased, as was the case with the Stinger missile;
• A system or munition may have experienced large swings in procurement quantities over time, reducing the incentive for industry to invest in production or maintain sufficient production capacity; and
• A system or munition may have recently entered service, not giving production capacity a chance to expand yet.

The report includes 18 detailed policy recommendations across three categories. They include:

U.S. Defense Industrial Base

• Procure the maximum or near-maximum quantity industry can produce for key munitions and weapon systems in the coming fiscal year.
• Require maximum production plans from industry.
• Prioritize speed and scale over risk mitigation.
• Approve DOD’s requests for more expansive use of multiyear procurement authorities.
• Revamp the process for establishing munitions requirements.
• Scrutinize Pentagon assumptions and requirements.
• Make greater use of existing infrastructure to reduce procurement costs and delivery timelines.

Allies and Partners

• Provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
• Work with allies and partners to maximize production.
• Expand U.S. arms sales to allies and partners.
• Review and reform the armed services’ Foreign Military Sales contracting processes.
• Update congressional reporting threshold values.
• Implement a time-bound State Department review process.
• Require an annual report on weapons delivery queues and timelines.
• Reduce the number of systems on the FMS-Only list.
• Expand the use of Presidential Drawdown Authority for Taiwan.

Defense Spending

• Increase defense spending by at least 3 to 5 percent above inflation each year.
• Pass the annual defense appropriation bill before the end of the fiscal year.

FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

To schedule an interview with the authors, contact FDD media relations at [email protected].

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About the Foundation for Defense of Democracies:

FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Connect with FDD on X, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube.

The Center on Military and Political Power at FDD promotes understanding of the defense strategies, policies, and capabilities necessary to deter and defeat threats to the freedom, security, and prosperity of Americans and our allies by providing rigorous, timely, and relevant research and analysis. Follow Bradley Bowman on X at @Brad_L_Bowman and Ryan Brobst at @RyanBrobst.