March 18, 2010 | Quote

FACTBOX: What Iran Experts are Saying about Sanctions

Reuters spoke to analysts at U.S. think-tanks and industry sources to canvass their views on the effectiveness of any sanctions that Washington and its allies may consider imposing on Iran.

Here are some of their comments:

SUZANNE MALONEY OF BROOKINGS INSTITUTION’S SABAN CENTER:

“One of the dirty little secrets of the sanctions discussions is that it really isn’t a viable alternative to some of the other policy options we might have.

“Simply, we have a very short timeline and there is almost no reason to believe that sanctions would be effective in the one to three years” the Pentagon estimates it will take Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.

RAY TAKEYH, SCHOLAR AT THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS AND

FORMER OBAMA ADMINISTRATION ADVISER:

“Sanctions don’t work quickly, so in that sense they are not an instrument that can produce results with speed.”

KARIM SADJADPOUR, ASSOCIATE AT THE CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE:

“Will sanctions inflict damage on the Iranian economy? Yes. Will sanctions compel Iranian officials to compromise on the nuclear issue? Probably not.”

“To paraphrase Napoleon, ‘When your enemy is destroying himself, don’t interfere.’ The truth is, we don’t know how sanctions on refined petroleum could play out, and our bottom line should be to do no harm to the prospects for political change in Iran.”

PATRICK CLAWSON, ANALYST AT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY:

“The Europeans are going to be quite prepared to support actions about no foreign investment in Iran’s oil and gas industry, but they are going to be very reluctant to take actions about gasoline imports.”

“I have been warning people that if you want to cut off Iran’s gasoline imports, then you have to cut off their supplies in every country of the world.”

“We have to measure the effectiveness of sanctions, not by how much pain they impose, but how likely they are to get Iran’s leaders to change their policies.”

MARK DUBOWITZ, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR THE FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES, A NON-PARTISAN POLICY INSTITUTE:

“Gasoline sanctions are not a silver bullet. At best they are silver shrapnel.

“The key fulcrum is the insurance and reinsurance companies. They provide the underwriting for the gas shipments. It is difficult to ship without insurance and reinsurance.”

HENRY SOKOLSKI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE NONPROLIFERATION POLICY EDUCATION CENTER:

“Oil sanctions have to be followed up with other steps. They would be the first of several steps.

“Our best hope is not smart sanctions or smart bombs but a ‘Velvet Revolution’ … There is too much emphasis on stopping the bomb and not enough emphasis on what kind of world we want.”

TIM EVANS, ENERGY ANALYST FOR CITI FUTURES PERSPECTIVE IN NEW YORK:

“There may be reason for skepticism (about energy-sector sanctions). In general there would be some party somewhere, even if it’s a black market operation, willing to sell to the Iranians at the right price.”

“We can’t assume a sanctions regime would be effective in physically reducing the supply of gasoline to Iran; it would probably have an impact in driving the price higher for the Iranians.”