American Morning

VICTOR KAMBER, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: Morning, Heidi.

COLLINS: And Cliff May, former RNC communications director, now with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Cliff, good morning to you, as well.

CLIFF MAY, FMR. RNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Good morning, Heidi. Good morning, Vic.

COLLINS: Let’s begin with you, Cliff. Over the last week, we have seen both the Democrats and the Republicans with these new ads, that we just mentioned, using Osama bin Laden in them. But both ads are painting the other guy to be weak on terror.

What do you make of it?

MAY: Look, I think it’s too bad that anything to do with the war against and the war against the ideologies that drive terrorism is politicized. But it’s happened. I think it’s bad for Kerry as much as it is for Bush and may be worse. If Kerry and Bush agreed on what to do about terrorism, there would be no debate. And if there were no debate on terrorism, they would be talking about social security, education, healthcare — areas where Kerry has a stronger position.

So, I think it’s bad for both, but that’s the dynamics of a campaign. It’s happened, and we just have to put up with it.

COLLINS: Vic, is it just politics, or are they looking at the history now of America?

KAMBER: Well, I think it’s — they are looking at the history of how negative advertising works. They are not looking at history in the way you’re asking the question.

I think — hopefully, I think the American public is smarter than both campaigns. I think there has become too much ad clutter. I think a lot of decisions are going to start being made basically on the debate. Those ads that you are running, for example, here in the District of Columbia, we don’t get to see it except on news shows like your own. They are primarily being run in those battleground states.

And then, as I say, there are so many ads being run in those battleground states on so many subjects that I think most of the American public is smart and has tuned out to some of that stuff right now. And the debates will be a big thing tomorrow…

COLLINS: All right…

KAMBER: … and terror will be a part of those debates.

COLLINS: Yeah, you can count on that. But Vic, you know, talking about the debates, when you look at the polls, many of the national polls are showing Bush to be ahead from anywhere from six percentage points all the way up to 11 percentage points.

Do you think the president is peaking too early here?

KAMBER: I hope so. There’s no doubt that I — I mean, I have to be candid, he is ahead. I don’t think he’s ahead by the numbers you are saying in terms of the battleground states. I think when you look at states like Texas and Utah, he’s way ahead. And when you look at states like New York and California, the gap between Kerry and Bush has shortened, although Kerry is still ahead.

And so, when you put those kinds of numbers together, the national polls look much bigger. But when you look at the individual state polls in terms of battleground, it’s much closer. But clearly the advantage today is to Bush.

COLLINS: Well, Cliff, that’s why they call them battleground states, right?

MAY: Correct. That’s right. And they are obviously important. This is a system where you don’t win just by having the majority of votes, you’ve got to win a majority of states. That’s the electoral system we’re in.

Look, Vic obviously hopes that this is, as you say, a peak for Bush, rather than what it could be, we don’t know, which is a structural lead. Remember when Clinton ran against Dole? Basically Clinton had his peak early on, stayed there. There was at no point that I recall when Dole was ahead of Clinton, when anybody though Dole was going to beat Clinton. In the end, the race was closer than people expected, but Clinton maintained his lead all the way to the end.

Could it be the same in this case from now on in? Of course it could be. That’s not a guarantee, obviously.

KAMBER: Heidi, one thing, the old Lloyd Bentsen: I know Bob Dole, and John Kerry is no Bob Dole. This will be a much closer race. This will be a much more tightened up race, and I would not rule John Kerry out by any means.

MAY: And I’m not ruling John Kerry out by any means. Of course, Lloyd Bentsen won that debate and then lost the election.

COLLINS: It happens. All right, to the two of you guys, thanks so much, as always. Victor Kamber and Cliff May this morning.