Market Call

European Commission President Romano Prodi, Socialist, says Spain’s move could help heal the rift in Europe over the war and pressure the U.S. to resolve the crisis. He says, “With this decision, Spain has fallen into line with our position. The divide that prevented Europe from having a common position is being overcome.”

In our “Tough Call” today, is Europe forming a united socialist front on Iraq? Joining us is Anatol Lieven from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of the upcoming book “America Right and Wrong: An Anatomy of American Nationalism.” And Andrew Apostolou, from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Gentlemen, good to have you on the program.

ANDREW APOSTOLOU, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: Pleasure to be with you, Miss Schaffler.

ANATOL LIEVEN, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: Hello.

SCHAFFLER: Oh, that’s nice. You can call me Rhonda, though, because I’m going to call you guys by first names.

Anatol, how do you assess the situation now with Europe uniting it appear against some of the U.S. policy with Iraq?

LIEVEN: Well, I’d say it’s not so much the question of Europe uniting against the U.S., it’s more a case of Western Europe beginning to unite in not supporting the U.S. It’s not that actually the Italian socialists or the new Spanish government have any solution for the Iraqi crisis. It’s just that they have absolutely no confidence in American leadership and they want to get their troops out of there.

SCHAFFLER: Andrew, what does perhaps Eastern European see different than Western Europe?

APOSTOLOU: Well, on May the 1st the EU becomes 25 countries. Twelve of those 25 will have troops in Iraq on May the 1st. That’s very important. Plus, Romania and Bulgaria, who are going to join the EU in 2007, also have troops in Iraq.

So what’s going to happen now is the center of gravity of the European Union is going to shift away from France and Germany, who seem to think that they own the European Union, and they don’t, and it’s going to move towards countries like Poland and countries like the Czech Republic, who in league with countries like Britain and Denmark and Italy are going to keep the EU as an overwhelmingly pro U.S. organization.

The fact is, Romano Prodi is a sort of clapped (ph) out, washed out politician that we will soon see very little of and we’ll be seeing new politicians from Eastern Europe coming through.

SCHAFFLER: Anatol, would you agree with that?

LIEVEN: No, not at all. Eastern Europe simply doesn’t have the economic weight within the European Union to balance against France and Germany. It’s also not just a question of France and Germany. France and Germany have now been joined by Spain.

Italian public opinion, like the public opinion of the overwhelming majority of Europeans, including in Eastern Europe itself, were opposed to this war, remain opposed to this and are bitterly critical of the Bush administration’s conduct of this war and of policy elsewhere in the Middle East, including, most notably, towards Israel and Palestinian. There is an overwhelming lack of confidence in Europe today in American leadership in the whole region.

SCHAFFLER: Andrew, if that is the case or if there has been some division, does that mean it’s been a success for some of the terrorist groups like al Qaeda?

APOSTOLOU: Well, the Spanish decision to scuttle out of Iraq, frankly, is a success for Muqtada al Sadr, and he’s welcomed it. It’s the only victory he’s going to earn, so perhaps he’s deserved it. It’s certainly a success for al Qaeda.

And the problem for the Spaniards is this, they should remember that in July 2002, when they nearly came to blows with Morocco over a territorial dispute, it wasn’t the European Union that stopped it. It was July, of course, so the EU was on holiday. What stopped them coming to blows was the United States picking up the telephone. Time and again, the U.S. has shown itself to be a very good ally of European countries.

Look at the French in 1995 with their nuclear test. President Clinton stood by them. I’m afraid there’s a bit of ingratitude in Europe at the moment and it’s very sad.

SCHAFFLER: Anatol, it just seemed that if we’re in the business of fighting terrorists that should be one of those united themes and perhaps policies and politics shouldn’t matter. Is that just unrealistic to think it’s the case?

LIEVEN: Europe was united behind the United States in the fight against al Qaeda after 9/11. The French contributed very strongly to Afghanistan and would have given even more if asked. There was very little opposition to that, except on the very stupid left in Europe. The opposition is to the bush administration’s extension of the war against terrorism to Iraq.

On premises, on evidence, which have now been shown to be false, this is what Europeans opposed. And it’s why there is this tremendous opposition in Europe to involvement in the Iraqi conflict, not in the war against terrorism.

SCHAFFLER: Andrew, some final thoughts.

APOSTOLOU: Well, actually, we went to war in Iraq on the basis of 17 U.N. resolutions. We went to war in Kosovo on the basis of no U.N. resolutions. And so I find it very strange that people who backed the war in Kosovo, countries that contributed to Kosovo, now turn around and say they will not enforce U.N. resolutions in Iraq.

We’ve got to get the job done in Iraq. What I think is interesting is that the key country in Europe, which contributes, does most of the fighting for the EU, that’s Britain. In that country in Britain there is a political consensus to finish the job in Iraq and I think you’ll see Britain contributing to make an extremely important contribution.

SCHAFFLER: Andrew Apostolou and Anatol Lieven, thanks for joining me as we make the “Tough Call” on Europe, the U.S. and Iraq. Appreciate it.

APOSTOLOU: Thank you, Miss Schaffler.

SCHAFFLER: And that wraps it up for MARKET CALL today. Thanks for watching. Have a great day. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.