FDD SITREPs | The Islamic Republic Is Falling

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In the early hours of February 28, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against the Iranian regime—Washington calling it “Operation Epic Fury,” Israel calling it “Operation Lion’s Roar.” Strikes hit sites across Iran, targeting ballistic missile infrastructure, IRGC facilities, intelligence headquarters, and senior regime leadership.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead. President Trump confirmed his elimination on February 28: “Khamenei, one of the most evil people in History, is dead.” U.S. officials told Fox News that the strikes were moved up after intelligence revealed Khamenei and dozens of senior Iranian officials were meeting at his compound. Among those killed: Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, IRGC Chief Mohammad Pakpour, Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, and multiple other senior military and intelligence figures.

Iran has retaliated. A ballistic missile penetrated Israeli air defenses and struck a residential building in central Tel Aviv, killing at least one woman. Over 200 missiles and drones were fired at Israel and U.S. bases across the region—striking the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and causing casualties in Dubai and Syria. Regional governments have condemned Iran’s strikes in the strongest terms.

Inside Iran, the response is electric. Videos show Iranians cheering in the streets. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has called on the armed forces to defect and urged citizens to prepare to mobilize. The opposition is deploying secure communications, satellite broadcasts, and hacked regime infrastructure to sustain the moment. The regime is decapitated. The question now is whether it falls.

To assess fast-moving developments and their strategic implications, FDD hosts two timely SITREPs. The first, moderated by FDD CEO and host of The Iran Breakdown Mark Dubowitz, featuring FDD Executive Director and host of the FDD Morning Brief Jonathan Schanzer and FDD Senior Fellow and former IDF international spokesperson Jonathan Conricus.

The second, moderated by Jonathan Schanzer, featuring Mark Dubowitz, and including FDD Senior Advisor and former White House National Security Council director Richard Goldberg.

Mark Dubowitz

Mark Dubowitz is FDD’s chief executive and host of The Iran Breakdown. Sanctioned by Iran in 2019 and Russia in 2022, he is widely recognized as a key influencer in shaping policies to counter the threats from the regime in Iran. According to The New York Times, “Mark Dubowitz’s campaign to draw attention to what he saw as the flaws in the Iran nuclear deal has taken its place among the most consequential ever undertaken by a Washington think tank leader.”

Jonathan Schanzer

Jonathan Schanzer is the executive director at FDD and host of the FDD Morning Brief. Jonathan previously worked as a terrorism finance analyst at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where he played an integral role in the designation of numerous terrorist financiers.

Jonathan Conricus

Jonathan Conricus is a senior fellow at FDD focused on the Middle East. served in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for 24 years as a combat commander in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, a military diplomat, foreign relations expert. He most recently served as international spokesperson for the IDF in the wake of the Hamas October 7 attacks. From various vantage points along and beyond Israel’s borders, Jonathan has delivered hundreds of security and strategic briefings to foreign groups and dignitaries, including heads of state, military professionals, senior government officials, students, and civil society. Jonathan is a member of the Israel Defense and Security Forum and a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Richard Goldberg

Richard Goldberg is director of FDD’s Energy and National Security Program. During the Trump administration’s transition from late 2024 through August 2025, he helped conceive, launch, and operationalize the National Energy Dominance Council. As its senior counselor, he advised on all aspects of the council’s work, including oil and gas, nuclear power, AI energy infrastructure, and critical minerals. Goldberg served as a national security and international affairs advisor at the Department of the Interior and supported Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum and Secretary of Energy Chris Wright in their roles on the National Security Council.