U.S. Treasury Should Target Iran’s Trading Partners

“Make Iran broke again,” declared Scott Bessent, the incoming Treasury secretary, shortly before his confirmation. That is a realistic goal given Iran’s isolation from the international financial markets, which, coupled with a lack of foreign direct investment, has left its economy heavily reliant on exports for generating hard currency. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Tehran had exports of $439 billion during the four years of the Biden presidency. Reducing that figure would deal a considerable blow to Iran’s economy.

Iran’s Non-Oil Exports Increased by 18 percent

According to Tehran’s deputy minister of economy and the head of the Iran Customs Administration, the country’s non-oil exports reached $43.1 billion from April to December 2024, marking an 18 percent increase compared to the same period the previous year.

The country’s non-oil exports included 50.7 million tons of petrochemical products, valued at $19.7 billion, or 46 percent of total non-oil exports, showing a 32 percent rise in value.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) worth $6 billion, liquefied propane worth $2.5 billion, and methanol worth $1.9 billion were the three major non-oil export items, all of which are under U.S. sanctions.

Altogether, 70 to 80 percent of Iran’s non-oil export revenue comes from sectors — such as petrochemicals, energy, and industrial metals — that are under sanctions.

China, Iraq, UAE, and Turkey Are Top Importers From Iran

The country’s largest non-oil export destinations were China, with $11 billion; Iraq, with $9.4 billion; the United Arab Emirates, with $5.3 billion; Turkey, with $5.2 billion; Afghanistan, with $1.7 billion; Pakistan, with $1.7 billion; and India, with $1.4 billion. These seven countries collectively accounted for 82.8 percent of the country’s non-oil exports by value.

UAE is Top Exporter to Iran, With China, Turkey, and Germany Trailing It

Iran’s imports during the first nine months of the Persian year 1403, April to December 2024, amounted to $50.9 billion. Iran imports consumer, agricultural, capital, and intermediary goods. The latter two are important to keeping Iran’s industries operational, while the first two play a crucial role in curbing discontent among the populace.

The largest exporters to Iran were the United Arab Emirates, with $15.3 billion; China, with $13 billion; Turkey, with $8.9 billion; Germany, with $1.8 billion; India and Russia, with $1.1 billion. Eighty-three percent of the country’s imports by value during this period were from these seven countries.

Raw gold worth $5.6 billion, livestock corn worth $2.1 billion, and smartphones worth $1.7 billion were the three major import items. Trading precious metals with Iran is prohibited by the United States and subject to secondary sanctions. Iran is most likely using imports of precious metals as a way to repatriate its oil exports revenue.

Oil Exports

Iran treats the volume and value of its oil exports as a state secret. However, it likely generated around $40 billion of revenue from oil in 2024. According to the UANI Tanker Tracker database, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil in 2024, averaging 1.6 million barrels per day — an 11 percent increase from the previous year and 60 percent more than what it exported in 2020. Assuming a 10 percent discount on Brent crude, this resulted in nearly $43 billion in oil export revenue. By cutting the 100,000 barrels per day once sent to Syria — likely without payment — Iran likely earned around $40 billion from oil exports. However, it remains unclear how much of a discount Tehran offered to China, what percentage of this revenue became fully and readily accessible, and what level of commission it paid to money launderers and sanctions busters to facilitate these transactions.

Hold Iran’s Trading Partners Accountable

Iran’s fragile economy remains the regime’s greatest vulnerability, making the restriction of its trade and access to hard currency a strategic imperative. Achieving this requires exerting pressure on Ankara, Abu Dhabi, and Baghdad to scale back their illicit trade with Tehran. Given Beijing’s pivotal role in sustaining Iran’s economy, more assertive measures are crucial. This includes directly designating Chinese firms with an international footprint and the banks and financial institutions that facilitate the illicit trade with Tehran, along with their top executives, rather than merely sanctioning front companies.

Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst. They contribute to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). Follow the authors on X @SGhasseminejad and @JanatanSayeh. For more analysis from Saeed and Janatan, please subscribe HERE. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.