Has the Era of Extremism Ended in the Middle East?

On May 20, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke about the U.S. decision to engage with the new Syrian government in Damascus. Rubio said that an unstable Syria has historically affected the entire region. His comments came almost a week after President Donald Trump met with Syria’s new President, Ahmed al Sharaa, in Riyadh. This momentous meeting symbolizes the rapid changes taking place in the region. The most important change is the weakening of various extremist groups.

The Middle East may be on the cusp of a new regional order. Trends that began decades ago are now playing themselves out, and one of the steadiest regional trends of the last four decades was the growth of extremist groups. These include al Qaeda, ISIS, proxies of the Iranian regime, and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Each of these groups has complex origins, but their power grew largely in the 1980s and 1990s. ISIS built on al Qaeda’s role and exploded on the scene in 2014, feeding off the chaos of the Syrian Civil War and taking over a swath of Iraq.

Today these groups are weakened or close to collapse. For instance, the PKK has said it will dissolve itself, ending 40 years of fighting against Turkey. PKK-linked groups may not follow suit in Iran or Syria, but they will likely morph into something else. The Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria are linked to the PKK, but they have moved far from their roots and are now prepared to integrate with the new government in Damascus. The PKK’s decision could also end a simmering conflict in northern Iraq, where Turkey maintains bases to fight the PKK.

ISIS cells are still active in Syria and Iraq, but the group is much weaker than when it was claiming territory and committing atrocities in 2015-2017. One of the clearest examples of the withering of extremist groups, though, is illustrated by the transition of Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS). The group was linked to al Qaeda but moderated while in control of Idlib in northern Syria. On Dec. 8, 2024, when the Assad regime fell, HTS became the new de-facto rulers in Damascus. Its leader, al Sharaa, became the transitional president. Now it is trying both to govern and to step away from its past extremism. Trump’s decision to meet with Sharaa, and the European Union’s decision on May 20 to end sanctions on Syria, show outside players are embracing the new reformists in Damascus.

Not all the Islamist groups in the region who use terrorism as a policy tool have disappeared. The Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas shows how deadly extremists can still be. However, Hamas has been weakened by Israel’s 19-month war in Gaza. The group’s leadership has been decimated. It still has support from Iran and receives a welcome mat in Turkey and Qatar, but its aging leaders may not be able to inspire the next generation.

Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq are all part of the Iranian-backed nexus of armed groups in the region, and these groups are also changing. Hezbollah was badly beaten by Israel in 2024. The fall of the Assad regime swept aside Iranian-backed militias in Syria. The PMF continue to be powerful but face some attempts to rein in their power; they could ossify and become less relevant over time. The Houthis pose a threat and have shown they can confront Israel and the U.S. However, it is possible that the Houthis have also reached the peak of their power.

What does this mean for the Middle East? Extremist groups have hollowed out states and sowed chaos across the region. For instance, Iranian-backed groups weakened Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, all of which became semi-failed states. Hamas took over Gaza in a coup in 2007 and brought ruin to the area with a decade and a half of wars on Israel. ISIS committed genocide in Iraq. The PKK not only tried to ignite a war in Turkey in 2015, but its affiliates and cadres also created chaos in northern Iraq. In Syria and Iran, the role of groups linked to the PKK has been different, but overall the dissolution of the group will likely help bring peace to Kurdish regions in four countries.

For decades, images of terrorism came to define the way people from other parts of the world viewed the Middle East. Historic cities such as Baghdad and Damascus became more well known for war than arts and culture. Gaza, once an important stop on trade routes, has been a scene of unending war. Extremist groups fought ceaselessly to seize power, hollow out states, and use countries as bases to spread conflict. As these groups are weakened and the state system returns to the region, a new future may emerge. This new future is on display as Trump meets Sharaa, the PKK dissolves, and Iran sees its proxies cut off and isolated. 

Seth J. Frantzman is an adjunct fellow at FDD. He is the author of three books — The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024), Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence, and the Battle for the Future (2021), and After ISIS: America, Iran and the Struggle for the Middle East (2019).