Trump should stop dancing to Putin’s nuclear waltz

Since retaking office, President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed concern that Russia’s war on Ukraine could spiral into World War III. The U.S. intelligence community’s Annual Threat Assessment recently warned about the “catastrophic damage” Russia’s nuclear forces could inflict on America.

Russian president Vladimir Putin understands that Washington fears nuclear escalation, and since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he has used nuclear threats to manipulate Kyiv’s Western allies into hesitating over military support. But rather than falling victim to Moscow’s hollow rhetoric, Trump should call Putin’s bluff and increase pressure on the Kremlin.

Russia has a long history of using information operations to influence its adversaries’ decision-making. Decades ago, the Soviet Union pioneered a technique known as reflexive control, flooding its enemies’ news ecosystems with propaganda to influence US perceptions of the nuclear balance of power. As summarized by Russia’s Ministry of Defense, information warfare involves “a massive psychological manipulation of the population to destabilize the state and society, as well as coercion of the state to take decisions for the benefit of the opposing force.” 

Putin, a former KGB officer, understands reflexive control and is adept at employing it. In November, Putin announced changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, according to which Moscow now considers aggression from any non-nuclear state with the backing of a nuclear power as a joint attack against Russia. In principle, this makes the United States a valid target for nuclear strikes by virtue of Ukraine using American weapons against Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that the change was “aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies.”

This is a textbook case of reflexive control, with Russia muddying the information space to paralyze adversaries with uncertainty: Will Russia retaliate with nuclear weapons? Even if not, is it worth taking actions that might risk a nuclear response? Unpredictability is the point. In reality, Putin has no rational incentive to use nuclear weapons as he understands that doing so would almost certainly elicit a devastating response against Russia. By distorting Western perceptions of the risk of Russian nuclear retaliation, Putin can protract the war in Ukraine and hamstring his adversaries into avoiding more decisive action.

Unfortunately, the United States keeps getting manipulated by Putin. Soon after launching its full-scale invasion, Russia placed its nuclear forces on “high alert.” Over the next few years, Putin warned the West to take his threats of nuclear war seriously. The Biden administration played into Putin’s hands. President Biden said the world was close to nuclear “Armageddon” and Western media amplified sensationalist scenarios of global conflict. Biden and his team dragged their feet in providing certain weapon systems to Ukraine, especially long-range missiles that could hit targets in Russia.

The current administration is no less vulnerable to this kind of psychological manipulation. On the campaign trail, Trump claimed that Biden was inviting World War III by arming Ukraine. Since his inauguration, Trump has continued to warn about an allegedly “looming” World War III. His Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, argued that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s vision of Ukrainian victory could catalyze “World War III or even a nuclear war.”

This kind of rhetoric, aimed at domestic political consumption, commits the same sin as the Biden administration, leaving US foreign policy at the mercy of Kremlin manipulation. The Trump administration should change course. 

During his first term, Trump pursued peace through strength. He stood up to North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un’s nuclear saber-rattling, threatening him with a “bigger nuclear button.” In 2022, he proposed a similar approach toward Russia, stating he would, as president, meet Putin’s nuclear threats with regular patrols  by US nuclear submarines near Russia, adding that the United States is “a greater nuclear power.”

That was the right approach, and now that he is in office, Trump should formally issue the threat. The United States possesses a powerful nuclear arsenal, and Trump should make clear that any nuclear attack on America would meet an overwhelming response. 

Moscow has been banging on the drum of nuclear escalation for over three years, but experience has shown the United States should not fall for this manipulation. It is high time for Washington and its European allies to see through Moscow’s vacuous threats and refuse to be cowed into deterring themselves from acting with greater resolve.

Ivana Stradner is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow her on Twitter @ivanastradner.