January 28, 2025 | 1945

Uneasy Truce: Israel’s Fragile Ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah

January 28, 2025 | 1945

Uneasy Truce: Israel’s Fragile Ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah

For fifteen months, Israel fought a difficult and complex war on multiple fronts. It was the costliest war in Israel’s history in terms of civilians killed and hostages taken, with more than 1,000 killed and 250 taken hostage on October 7, 2023. The wars that began on October 7 appear to be winding down or bookended by ceasefires. There is a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon. However, neither ceasefire is easy.

An Uneasy Ceasefire

In Lebanon, Israel was supposed to withdraw sixty days after the ceasefire began on November 27. However, January 27 came and went, and Israeli forces are still in Lebanon. Lebanese civilians are pushing to return to areas near the border. The new Lebanese government wants things settled and calm. In addition, Hezbollah wants to return to southern Lebanon quietly. These agendas are converging. Israeli forces are staying in Lebanon beyond when Israel had initially agreed they would leave because, apparently, Israel feels there is more to be done in Lebanon. It wants to see the Lebanese Armed Forces deploy the way the LAF is supposed to deploy to keep Hezbollah away from the border.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend the first sixty days until February 18, giving the Israelis several more weeks in Lebanon. This agreement shows how the ceasefire program is flexible. It also shows that Hezbollah is not itching to pull the trigger on another war. However, Hezbollah is still chaffing. Iran backs Hezbollah. However, the Iranians currently have trouble supplying Hezbollah with weapons because the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad fell on December 8. This new regime cut off Iran’s land route to Lebanon. In addition, the latest Syrian government has said twice in the last month that it has interdicted arms being smuggled from Syria to Lebanon. This is a big sign for Hezbollah that the old days may not return.

For Israel, the challenge is when to leave Lebanon and how to make sure that the war with Hezbollah has some lasting effect. Israelis don’t want to find themselves facing Hezbollah in another war in a year. Hezbollah used this war to show that it could tie itself to Hamas and other Palestinian groups in Gaza. Essentially, Hezbollah argued it has a “right” to attack Israel whenever there is conflict in Gaza. Hezbollah changed the equation that had existed between it and Israel for decades. Israel would like to put the genie back in the Hezbollah bottle in the wake of the ceasefire and not have Hezbollah feel it has this right to attack.

Meanwhile in Gaza

Meanwhile, on the Gaza front, another shaky ceasefire is taking place. That ceasefire began on January 19. It is expected to progress in phases. Phase one is around forty days, and then more phases will occur. In phase one, Hamas is supposed to release 33 hostages. Some of the hostages are presumed to be dead. Hamas has released seven hostages in the first two weeks, and more are being released as January comes to a close. Israelis are awaiting the return of the hostages.

However, there are hurdles. The deal includes the withdrawal of the IDF from parts of Gaza and the return of Gazans to northern Gaza. The IDF is sensitive to Hamas abiding by the agreement. There have been tense moments in Gaza as Gazans have approached IDF units and also as vehicles sought to cross from central Gaza to northern Gaza via what is called the Netzarim corridor. This corridor, carved out by the IDF across Gaza in late October 2023, had prevented Gazans from returning to northern Gaza. Now, it is estimated that hundreds of thousands want to return. Israel and Hamas, and mediators in Doha, Cairo, and the US, were able to work through the ceasefire deal, enabling Palestinians in Gaza to begin to return north on January 27 in return for Hamas moving up the date of the release of several hostages.

However, Gaza is tense. Hamas is parading around as if it won the war. During the hostage release on January 25, Hamas paraded four Israeli female hostages onto a stage and had them stand and receive documents as if they were at a graduation ceremony, not a hostage release. Hamas tried to humiliate the women, who were all 19 and 20 years old and were IDF soldiers, when their base was overrun on October 7. Hamas had the women speak in Arabic and thank Hamas for the ill-treatment the women had received. Overall, Hamas is stage-managing the hostage releases to portray itself as a winner. In Israel, some politicians who opposed the hostage deal are angry and want a return to fighting in Gaza. With the IDF withdrawing, it would seem complicated to then unleash the IDF again into Gaza so soon. However, Israel has vowed that on the Gaza and Lebanon fronts, it will not go back to October 6, 2023.

The ceasefire regime on two fronts has turned a multi-front war into a multi-front ceasefire. Not everywhere is the fire ceasing though. In the West Bank, the IDF launched Operation Iron Wall on January 26, targeting terrorists in Jenin in the northern West Bank. In the past year, terrorist groups have tried to take over more areas in the northern West Bank. They expect that the Gaza hostage deal may be a wind in their sails as Israel releases Palestinian prisoners. The IDF wants to pre-empt this. In two days of battles in Jenin, the IDF says 15 terrorists were killed and several dozen detained.

On other fronts, there appears to be quiet. The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have stopped their ballistic missile attacks on Israel. The Iranian-backed militias in Iraq seem to have stopped their attacks as well. Iran may now be seeking a window of opportunity to reach out to the new Trump administration. With so many wheels in motion, Israel will have to pay close attention to the two ceasefires on two fronts and see if it can win the peace after struggling in fifteen months of war.

Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a Senior Middle East Analyst for The Jerusalem Post. Seth is now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

Issues:

Issues:

Hezbollah Israel Israel at War Lebanon

Topics:

Topics:

Iran Israel Syria Hamas Iraq Hezbollah Lebanon Palestinians Donald Trump Israel Defense Forces Bashar al-Assad Yemen Gaza City West Bank The Jerusalem Post Houthi movement Arabic Cairo Doha Jenin Lebanese Armed Forces Seth J. Frantzman