Central Asia in the Energy Transition

Excerpt

The Central Asian region, in terms of energy, has long been known mostly for its vast endowments of oil and gas. Indeed, some of the largest new discoveries of oil anywhere in the world in the past few decades were made in Kazakhstan; Turkmenistan has the world’s fourth largest reserves of natural gas; and Azerbaijan already exports significant volumes of both oil and gas to Türkiye and onward to Europe and world markets.

Meanwhile, Europe’s energy situation is in rapid flux. On one hand, Europe is trying to rapidly accomplish an energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which will result in growing demand for electricity. On the other, it finds itself in an entirely novel geopolitical situation, in which the continent is forced to rapidly wean itself off its dependence on Russia for energy. This applies both to its reliance on Russian fossil fuels and to its dependence on Russian uranium for its nuclear reactors.

In this complex situation, what is the role of Central Asia? A superficial observer may conclude that the transition away from fossil fuels will make the region less relevant for Europe’s energy security. Reality, however, seems very different. For starters, in any realistic scenario Europe will continue to rely on imported oil and natural gas for a long time to come. Because Europe itself is underinvesting in oil and gas, Caspian and Central Asian reserves may be more important than in the past. Even as Europe develops renewable energy, Central Asia is highly relevant for Europe’s nuclear power given the presence of some of the largest uranium resources in the world, especially, in Kazakhstan, but also in Uzbekistan.

Svante E. Cornell is research director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, affiliated with Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. Dr. Brenda Shaffer is a faculty member of the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, Senior Advisor for Energy at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.